Top Stories
NYT: "The International Atomic Energy Agency last week presented a report to its board that laid out new information on what it calls 'possible military dimensions' of Iran's nuclear program, clarifying the central issue in the long clash between Tehran and the West over nuclear technology. The nine-page report raised questions about whether Iran has sought to investigate seven different kinds of technology ranging from atomic triggers and detonators to uranium fuel. Together, the technologies could make a type of atom bomb known as an implosion device, which is what senior staff members of the I.A.E.A. have warned that Iran is able to build. Weapons based on implosion are considered advanced models compared with the bomb that the United States dropped on Hiroshima. In these devices, the detonation of a sphere of conventional explosives creates a blast wave that compresses a central ball of bomb fuel into a supercritical mass, starting the chain reaction that ends in a nuclear explosion. Implosion designs, compact and efficient by nature, are considered necessary for making nuclear warheads small and powerful enough to fit atop a missile. Iran has dismissed charges that it is pursuing such technologies as lies based on fabricated documents or real ones taken out of context. It insists that its atomic program is meant exclusively for such peaceful objectives as producing medical isotopes and electric power. The result has been a tense standoff. Last week's report said the director general of the I.A.E.A., Yukiya Amano, recently wrote to Iranian officials to reiterate the agency's concerns about the arms evidence and request 'prompt access' to a wide range of Iranian facilities and individuals. The report said Mr. Amano 'urges Iran to respond positively' in order to establish 'the exclusively peaceful nature' of its program." http://t.uani.com/ma0V4e
WSJ: "Iran is taking steps toward an aggressive new form of censorship: a so-called national Internet that could, in effect, disconnect Iranian cyberspace from the rest of the world. The leadership in Iran sees the project as a way to end the fight for control of the Internet, according to observers of Iranian policy inside and outside the country. Iran, already among the most sophisticated nations in online censoring, also promotes its national Internet as a cost-saving measure for consumers and as a way to uphold Islamic moral codes. In February, as pro-democracy protests spread rapidly across the Middle East and North Africa, Reza Bagheri Asl, director of the telecommunication ministry's research institute, told an Iranian news agency that soon 60% of the nation's homes and businesses would be on the new, internal network. Within two years it would extend to the entire country, he said." http://t.uani.com/mkrZua
WashPost: "U.S. officials say Iran is dispatching increasing numbers of trainers and advisers - including members of its elite Quds Force - into Syria to help crush anti-government demonstrations that are threatening to topple Iran's most important ally in the region. The influx of Iranian manpower is adding to a steady stream of aid from Tehran that includes not only weapons and riot gear but also sophisticated surveillance equipment that is helping Syrian authorities track down opponents through their Facebook and Twitter accounts, the sources said. Iranian-assisted computer surveillance is believed to have led to the arrests of hundreds of Syrians seized from their homes in recent weeks... The new assertions - provided by two U.S. officials and a diplomat from an allied nation, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive intelligence - are clearly aimed at suggesting deepening involvement of Iranian military personnel in Syria's brutal crackdown against anti-Assad demonstrators." http://t.uani.com/lhagXz
Nuclear Program & Sanctions
Reuters: "Iran and India have not yet found a bank to handle oil payments to the OPEC producer after two days of talks, Seyed Mohsen Ghamsari, executive director for international affairs at NIOC, said on Tuesday. Iran, facing increased isolation internationally, has offered India various options to end an impasse on payments, including a choice of currencies and paying on a cargo-by-cargo basis, he told reporters. Ghamsari said the central banks of the two countries were working on finding a bank to handle the payments. He declined to name the potential banks." http://t.uani.com/ktiRoV
AFP: "Iran's oil production may fall to 2.7 million barrels per day within five years unless 150 billion dollars is invested in its energy sector, a top official said in a report on Monday. 'The national oil company plans to invest 150 billion dollars during the fifth development plan,' which ends in 2015, said the deputy oil minister for planning, Mohsen Khojasteh-Mehr, quoted by IRNA state news agency. 'If the investments are not realised..., the country's oil output will drop to 2.7 million barrels per day' from the current production of 3.7 million, he said. The proposed investment would raise Iran's oil production capacity to 4.7 million pbd by 2015, from the current 4.0 million, while gas production would increase to 1,470 million cubic metres from 600 million, he said... But the development of its oil and gas projects have been affected by the departure of major Western companies, as well as those from Japan and South Korea, due to international sanctions against the Iranian nuclear programme." http://t.uani.com/jvvw6c
POLITICO: "There's no evidence that Iran is building nuclear weapons, Seymour Hersh writes in this week's New Yorker - but the Obama administration is pushing back strongly, with one senior official saying the article garnered 'a collective eye roll' from the White House. In 'Iran and the Bomb,' from the issue dated June 6, Hersh adds up what's known about the Iranian nuclear program and concludes that the Obama administration is overstating the threat coming from Tehran, just as the Bush administration did nearly a decade ago when sizing up Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. But two administration officials told POLITICO's Playbook that's not the case. '[A]ll you need to read to be deeply concerned about Iran's nuclear program is the substantial body of information already in the public domain, including the most recent IAEA report,' a senior administration official said." http://t.uani.com/mjbEQR
Human Rights
Reuters: "Three hundred drug traffickers are on death row in Iran, the judiciary said, reflecting Tehran's hard line on narcotics which has added to international concerns over its extensive use of capital punishment. 'For 300 drug-related convicts, including those who were in possession of at least 30 grams of heroin, execution verdicts have been issued,' Sharq daily quoted Tehran prosecutor-general Abbas Jafari Dolatabadi as saying on Monday. Although the list was long it did not contain any big-time traffickers or ringleaders, he said. All the convicts face death by hanging. Amnesty International says Iran is second only to China for the number of executions, with at least 252 people put to death last year." http://t.uani.com/mbIxzN
Domestic Politics
AFP: "Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad considered resigning after supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vetoed a minister's sacking, but ultimately decided not to, parliament's deputy speaker said Sunday. 'At one stage the president went as far as (considering) to resign, but he calculated that he should continue his work,' Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the first deputy speaker of conservative-dominated parliament, was quoted as saying. Ahmadinejad withdrew from public life for 10 days in late April in protest after Khamenei blocked his decision to dismiss Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi. The showdown triggered a political crisis within the conservative camp in the Iranian political hierarchy, with the ultra-religious conservatives denouncing Ahmadinejad's decision as a threat to the regime and urging him to toe the line. 'The supreme leader wants the government to continue its work to the end of its term with serenity and on a natural course,' Bahonar added referring to the end of Ahamdinejad's tenure in August 2013." http://t.uani.com/jDJUxC
LAT: "Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a public endorsement of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Sunday as he looked to resolve a months-long rift among the country's conservative power elites. 'While there are weaknesses and problems ... the composition of the executive branch is good and appropriate, and the government is working. The government and parliament must help each other,' Khamenei said in an address to members of parliament shown later on state television. The pronouncement by Khamenei, the country's most powerful figure, has followed a period of turbulence between him and Ahmedinejad, his onetime political favorite. At its heart is a potential struggle for power between the firebrand president and Khamenei's conservative clergy, who are wary of Ahmadinejad's messianic strain of Islam and his populism. They worry his tendency for incendiary talk could threaten their long-term interests, if not render them obsolete." http://t.uani.com/kxTL3V
AFP: "Iran's ruling conservatives on Saturday ratcheted up pressure on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to detach himself from his chief of staff and scrap plans to line up his own favourites for elections next year. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's representative in the elite Revolutionary Guards said Ahmadinejad's government had been infiltrated by 'corrupt elements' and urged the president to return to the 'right path.' 'Unfortunately the government is inflicted by a great calamity, which is the presence of corrupt elements,' said Hojatoleslam Ali Saeedi, quoted by Mehr news agency. Saeedi's criticism was directed at Ahmadinejad's chief of staff, top adviser and close relative, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie -- the bane of the religious traditionalists in the Iranian regime." http://t.uani.com/ltIfse
Bloomberg: "Iran's Central Bank plans to increase interest rates for deposits in a bid to control fluctuations in the gold and foreign-currency markets, Hamshahri reported. A report by the bank to increase deposit rates will be submitted to the High Council of Money and Credit, the Tehran- based newspaper said, citing central bank governor Mahmoud Bahmani. A higher rate will attract liquidity to banks, Bahmani told the newspaper. He added that a large portion of the $300 billion in liquidity will be directed toward different parts of the economy without an increase in inflation, the newspaper said." http://t.uani.com/kiu3P9
Foreign Affairs
WSJ: "Germany summoned the Iranian ambassador in Berlin Tuesday after Iran temporarily blocked a plane carrying German Chancellor Angela Merkel from entering its airspace. Ms. Merkel's plane was denied access to Iranian air space for more than an hour early Tuesday as she was en route to meetings with Indian leaders in New Delhi. 'Unusual start to the India trip,' Ms. Merkel's spokesman, Steffen Seibert, wrote later on his Twitter account. 'Iran temporarily denies a flyover for the chancellor's plane. Late landing in Delhi.' German journalists traveling with Ms. Merkel reported that Iranian officials revoked the plane's right to enter its airspace just after crossing the border from Turkey. Ms. Merkel's plane turned back and circled Turkey for more than an hour, while Germany enlisted Turkish officials and staff at the foreign ministry in Berlin to contact their Iranian counterparts. The plane was eventually granted permission to continue on its planned route to the Indian capital. Ms. Merkel arrived there about two hours late for a meeting with India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh." http://t.uani.com/ki2G2j
AFP: "Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said Egypt's expulsion on Monday of an Iranian diplomat on suspicion of spying was 'a misunderstanding that has been resolved,' state television's website reported. 'This issue was a misunderstanding that has been resolved,' Salehi was quoted as saying on Cairo's expulsion of Qasim al-Hosseini. Hosseini was expelled on Monday and flew out on a flight to Dubai, a day after being briefly detained on suspicion of spying, Egypt's official MENA news agency reported. 'Forty to 50 Egyptian intellectuals and thinkers who we have invited to Iran are arriving today, and I think that Mr Hosseini is accompanying them,' Salehi said. An initial probe found Hosseini had gathered 'information about Egypt on the latest developments the country has experienced and the conditions through which it is passing, then sent them to Iran's intelligence services,' MENA said. Iran's interests section in Cairo denied Hosseini had been arrested." http://t.uani.com/jqvA49
YNetNews: "A senior Iranian cleric, who is known as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's spiritual mentor, urged followers to continue suicide attacks against Israelis, including children. Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah, considered one of the Islamic Republic's most radical clerics, issued a religious edict on his website whereby suicide attacks are not only legitimate but are a must for every Muslim, a special paper by the Middle East Media Research Institute shows. The senior cleric was responding to a question from a follower regarding the difference between 'martyr's death' and 'suicide.' The man, who wrote anonymously, noted that 'some people say that martyrdom operations are considered suicide and that they are haram (forbidden) because they contradict Islam.' In response, Mesbah expressed his regret that his follower has fallen victim to 'propaganda of the enemies of Islam.' He added that the follower was wasting his time instead of focusing on 'uprooting the Zionist regime.'" http://t.uani.com/j1fRTW
Bloomberg: "Iran's parliament approved the outlines of a bill to impose travel and financial restrictions on 26 U.S. officials, whom it accuses of being involved in 'human rights violations,' Mehr reported. The bill would also call for the officials to be tried on charges of 'crimes against humanity' and 'human rights abuses,' Kazem Jalali, the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee spokesman said, according to a report published yesterday by the state-run news agency, which didn't specify the names. Iran's prosecutor general would submit the names and relevant documents to the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Mehr said. Iran's Foreign Ministry will be in charge of following up on the implementation of the proceedings at international forums, it said." http://t.uani.com/iPss4W
Opinion & Analysis
Reuel Marc Gerecht and Mark Dubowitz in WSJ: "If we buy oil from despotic states, are we somehow complicit in their crimes? Even after the Arab Spring has highlighted tyranny in the Middle East, Americans and Europeans still generally remove oil and natural gas from their moral calculations. But what if we could do a lot of good by sanctioning Iranian oil? Is it possible, moreover, for Europeans to continue to buy Iranian crude but give the Iranian regime less money? And could China and India, major oil customers of Tehran who couldn't care less about the regime's behavior, purchase as much crude as they want and still hurt the mullahs' ability to translate oil wealth into nefarious actions? The answer to all three questions is 'yes.' All buyers need is more incentive to shop ruthlessly whenever they buy from Tehran. Washington could provide it by declaring the United States an Iranian-oil-free zone. Any company that exports an oil-based product to America-gasoline, plastics, petrochemicals, synthetic fibers-would have to certify that no Iranian oil was involved in its manufacture. In 2010, the U.S. imported approximately 5% of its finished (fully-refined) and unfinished daily gasoline consumption from Europe. Since Iranian oil is now freely blended into European stocks, the U.S. is certainly consuming Iranian crude. And Iran's petrochemical exports to China amount to roughly $2 billion, so imagine how much of that comes to the U.S. via Chinese-manufactured plastics. Making the U.S. an Iranian-oil-free zone would make it a hassle to trade in and use Iranian crude, which would strongly encourage any importer to demand a discount from Tehran. The pressure on Iran to lower its price everywhere could become acute. The U.S. is Europe's largest export market for gasoline, so Washington could give foreign refineries a six-month grace period to adjust their supplies, making it unlikely there would be any increase in the price of gasoline exported to the U.S. No refinery in Europe is dependent on Iranian crude: Even in a tight market, alternative oil supplies could quickly replace Iranian supplies for those refineries that prefer to avoid Iranian oil. Even for countries that might try to cheat the system, like Venezuela, the incentive would be strong to take advantage of this American sanction and force a lower Iranian price. Moving oil from Iran to Venezuela isn't free-ideological fraternity would probably come at a price. It's difficult to assess exactly, but it's reasonable to posit that aggressive oil traders would force Tehran to discount its oil by at least 10%. Currently, gasoline traders willing to defy U.S. sanctions on refined petroleum demand premiums of about 30% for the sale of petrol to the Islamic Republic." http://t.uani.com/k07HsD
Bruce Reidel in The Daily Beast: "As al Qaeda recovers from the SEAL raid that killed Osama bin Laden and builds a new leadership team, its inner circle has undergone a major metamorphosis, thanks to the arrival since late last year of the long- lost al Qaeda Iran cadre. After 9/11 and the toppling of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, a major block of al Qaeda's founding fathers fled to Iran, and lived under some kind of loose control from Tehran for years. Now they have been allowed to leave and have returned to Pakistan. This cabal of experienced operatives has been welcomed home and will be a defining element in the new post-bin Laden al Qaeda, along with his long time Egyptian deputy Ayman Zawahiri and the up-and-coming Pakistani terror mastermind, Muhammad Ilyas Kashmiri. In late 2001 and early 2002, as bin Laden and Zawahiri fled from Afghanistan east into Pakistan, another smaller exodus of al Qaeda leaders went west into Iran. The Iranians detained many of them. For the next nine years they remained there, their status never clear to outsiders. They were not free to leave Iran, but they do not seem to have been full-time prisoners either. The Iranians occasionally hinted that they might be ready to trade these al Qaeda operatives for anti-regime dissidents like the Mujahedin e Khalq group that was captured in Iraq during the 2003 invasion. But no deal ever emerged. Iran may also have found them to be useful hostages-effectively helping to keep al Qaeda from attacking Iranian targets. Washington accused the Iranians of turning a blind eye to the exiles' support for al Qaeda attacks in both Iraq and Saudi Arabia from their Iranian homes. Their departure from Iran late last year is as mysterious as their time in country. Some unconfirmed reports have hinted at a prisoner exchange with al Qaeda in Pakistan, which had captured a senior Iranian spy; there may have been a trade with Tehran for the exiles. Another theory: as U.S.-Iranian relations deteriorated in 2010 over Iran's nuclear program and Tehran's suppression of dissidence at home, the regime just let the al Qaeda teams leave quietly for Pakistan so they could go back and harass America. Al Qaeda and Iran have a very complex relationship. The terror cell is extremist Sunnis, while Iran is majority Shia; the two sides tend to hate each other with a violent passion. Al Qaeda in Iraq and Afghanistan has attacked Shia with a vengeance. But they find common cause in their mutual hatred of America; both can see the virtue in having more anti-U.S. violence, whatever the source. The two sides have engaged in quiet tactical cooperation dating back to the mid-1990s. Whatever the Iranian motives in letting them go, the old timers came back at a critical juncture for al Qaeda. Drone strikes had weakened the terror cell's core even before the CIA found bin Laden in Abbottabad. The experienced refugees from Iran were quickly reabsorbed into al Qaeda. Now they are set to be an important part of the new post bin-Laden operation." http://t.uani.com/llYLfd
Meir Javedanfar in The Guardian: "Last week brought new indications that the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran want to make a nuclear bomb. The disclosure was part of the newly released nine-page report by the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It stated that 'Tehran has conducted work on a highly sophisticated nuclear triggering technology that experts said could be used for only one purpose: setting off a nuclear weapon'. This is not the first time that the IAEA has come across evidence that indicates Iran has military ambitions for its nuclear programme. In November 2009, as revealed by the Guardian, the IAEA asked the Iranian government to explain 'evidence suggesting that Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design'. These revelations show that the international community has good and valid reasons to seriously doubt the Iranian government's claims that its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes only. They also provide the west with more valid justification to impose even tougher sanctions against the Islamic regime for its illegal nuclear activities. However, sanctions alone are not enough. When it comes to efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, since 2008, the international community and especially western countries have discovered another powerful tool at their disposal: diplomacy. This is why they have been more successful in isolating Iran than ever before. More of the same should follow. Direct negotiations with the Iranian government should be offered with more vigour than in the past, as the west is likely to emerge as the winner under both possible scenarios. The first scenario is that Iran decides to take up the offer and negotiate seriously... The second scenario is that Iran attends the negotiations with the goal of dictating its own demands, or merely to buy time - as it did in the previous rounds of talks. This would also be to the west's advantage, judging by the recent performance of Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili. In fact, Iran's current nuclear negotiation team is one of the least professional and worst performing in the history of the Islamic Republic. The P5+1 negotiators, headed by the EU's foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, had a chance to experience this at first hand during the last round of negotiations in Istanbul on 15 January." http://t.uani.com/jmKo5g
|
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment