Monday, June 20, 2011

#1093 Pipes blog: Goal in Libya? Arab presidential dynasties































































Daniel

Pipes



June 17, 2011


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What's the Goal in Libya?




by Daniel Pipes

June 17, 2011

Cross-posted from National Review Online




http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2011/06/what-the-goal-in-libya





























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By committing forces in Libya on behalf of the rebels based in Cyrenaica without quite knowing who they are, what they believe in, or what kind of government they would institute on achieving power, the NATO allies did something unprecedented in March 2011.







This irresponsible undertaking means that Western forces are engaged in a weird roll of the dice: Mu'ammar al-Qaddafi may be a monster but at least he is an isolated one who can inflict relatively little damage on American interests. The Cyrenaica crowd could be Islamist, in which case it might inflict much more damage on those interests.




As we know so little, I propose an unconventional policy which makes sense in these unusual circumstances: Not seek to drive Qaddafi from power but let him survive as ruler of Tripolitania (and Fezzan), while keeping him out of Cyrenaica. In other words, let there be two Libyas, one based in Tripoli, one in Benghazi, one ruled by Qaddafi and one by his opponents.




Over time, we can see which is the better of the two. When that judgment has been reached, we can help the better Libya defeat the worse one and assist it to take over the whole country.




Again, I acknowledge that this is an abnormal policy, not to speak of one directly opposed to the current U.S. policy of dispatching Qaddafi, but NATO's incompetent, amateurish, emotional, and non-strategic policy does push one in an abnormal direction. (June 17, 2011)




Related Topics: Libya, US policy This text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete information provided about its author, date, place of publication, and original URL.










The Lure and Peril of Arab Presidential Dynasties




by Daniel Pipes

June 15, 2011

Cross-posted from National Review Online




http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2011/06/the-lure-and-peril-of-arab-presidential-dynasties





























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The outsized role of the ruler's families provides a commonality in many of the Middle Eastern countries experiencing upheavals in 2011. In Tunisia, the dictator's wife and her brood inspired much anger. But in most cases, rulers wanting sons to succeed them shakes their rule:







  • Egypt: The military men who ruling in Cairo since 1952 took it askance when Hosni Mubarak prepared the way for his banker son Galal, to succeed him.










  • Yemen: Ali Abdullah Saleh filled the government with relatives and wanted his son Ahmed to succeed him, an aspiration that aroused opposition, especially from the tribes.



  • Libya: Mu'ammar al-Qaddafi's seven sons, some of which hoped to follow him, feuded among themselves and exacerbated hatred for the regime.



  • Syria: Hafez al-Assad did succeed to have his opthamologist son Bashar succeed him, only for Bashar's ineptitude to prompt the regime's worst crisis ever.




In addition, Saddam Hussein of Iraq worked assiduously to have his sons succeed him, which contributed to his vanity, misrule, and ultimate demise.






















Arab leaders in their glory, at an Arab League meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in 2007.








Related Topics: Middle East patterns This text may be reposted or forwarded so long as it is presented as an integral whole with complete information provided about its author, date, place of publication, and original URL.







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