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AFP: "Iran warned it would 'not hesitate' to hit back following a foreign strike on its soil in a formal complaint to the United Nations over a warning from French President Nicolas Sarkozy. Sarkozy said last week that Iran's 'military, nuclear and ballistic ambitions constitute a growing threat that may lead to a preventive attack against Iranian sites that would provoke a major crisis that France wants to avoid at all costs.' Iran's UN ambassador said in a letter to UN leaders that his country would 'not hesitate to act in self-defense to respond to any attack against the Iranian nation.' Iran would 'take appropriate defensive measures to protect itself,' ambassador Mohammad Khazaee told UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and the Security Council, of which France is one of the five permanent members." http://t.uani.com/pWewD2
NYT: "For years, posters celebrating the decades-old alliance joining Syria and Iran festooned the streets and automobiles of the Syrian capital - the images of Presidents Bashar al-Assad and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad embroidered with roses and daffodils. But that alliance is now strained, and on Thursday, President Ahmadinejad of Iran became the most recent, and perhaps the most unexpected, world leader to call for President Assad to end his violent crackdown of an uprising challenging his authoritarian rule in Syria. When the Arab Spring broke out, upending the regional order, Iran seemed to emerge a winner: its regional adversary, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, was ousted from power and its most important ally, Syria, was emboldened. But the popular demands for change swept into Syria, and now, as Mr. Assad's forces continue to shoot unarmed demonstrators, Iran sees its fortunes fading on two fronts: its image as a guardian of Arab resistance has been battered, and its most important regional strategic ally is in danger of being ousted. Even while it has been accused of providing financial and material support for Mr. Assad's crackdown, Iran has increased calls for Syria to end the violence and reform its political process, a formula Tehran apparently hopes will repair its image and, if heeded, possibly bolster Mr. Assad's standing." http://t.uani.com/oo6VuH
LAT: "The Los Angeles Times spoke to three Syrian military men, all members of the nation's Sunni Muslim majority, who, reached independently, said they fled between May and August to avoid being forced to shoot unarmed civilians, or being shot themselves for refusing. A fourth Syrian interviewed by The Times identified himself and was identified by one of the other defectors as a first lieutenant in the military intelligence service, or mukhabarat... On one of the final days before the Baniyas operation, the lieutenant said, more than a dozen vehicles carrying Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops arrived. Like members of the Syrian mukhabarat, the Iranians wore Syrian army uniforms, he said. But the Iranians kept to themselves, speaking to one another in a language that few of the Syrians could follow. U.S. and European officials have charged that Iran's Revolutionary Guard is aiding the Syrian crackdown. The European Union has leveled sanctions against Iranian officials and specific Revolutionary Guard units for the alleged support, which Iran denies." http://t.uani.com/oOaqho
Nuclear Program & Sanctions
Guardian: Tony Blair calls for regime change in Iran and Syria as he blames Tehran for prolonging the conflict in Iraq after the 2003 invasion. In an interview to mark the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, the former prime minister warns that the Middle East would be 'very, very badly' destabilised if Iran acquired nuclear weapons. Blair, who is the Middle East peace envoy, tells the Times: 'Regime change in Tehran would immediately make me significantly more optimistic about the whole of the region. If Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons capability it would destabilise the region very, very badly. They continue to support groups that are engaged with terrorism and the forces of reaction. In Iraq one of the main problems has been the continued intervention of Iran and likewise in Afghanistan.' The former prime minister appears to be open to the idea of a military attack against Iran if it comes close to acquiring nuclear missiles. But he makes clear he was not advocating a military strike." http://t.uani.com/mXDpYO
Reuters: "Iran has been importing four to five cargoes of petrol per month, with most of it supplied by China as the Islamic Republic finds ways to get around the US-led sanctions, three industry sources familiar with the matter said. 'For sure Iranians are importing gasoline from Asia, China namely,' one source said. 'Suppliers sell to traders on a free-on-board (FOB) basis and they know that the cargo will end up in Iran,' he added. The purchases were on a barter basis, a second source said. 'Chinese are buying crude and sending back petrol,' he added. But, Ali Reza Zeighami, managing director of the National Iranian Refining and Oil Products Distribution Company, denied buying any gasoline through barter. 'Iran does not trade any of its oil for buying gasoline from foreign companies,' he told the semi-official Mehr news agency. 'From the start of the year Iran has not bought any gasoline from any international countries,' he said. Iran's own refineries were producing an average of 50 million litres per day, he said." http://t.uani.com/q2vYaX
Reuters: "Iran is not concerned about a curb on Chinese investments in its vital energy sector, its foreign minister said on Thursday. China has put the brakes on oil and gas investments in Iran, drawing ire from Tehran over a pullback that officials and executives said reflected Beijing's efforts to appease Washington and avoid U.S. sanctions on its big energy firms. On a visit to U.S. ally Pakistan to discuss energy, agriculture and banking ties, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi sought to play down China's apparent shift in Iran. 'The Chinese are very active in Iran. There may be one project or two projects that may have (been reported) in the media,' said Salehi. 'One or two projects may be slow but that is no problem.' The stakes are high for OPEC's second-largest producer Iran, as China is one of the only players on the international political stage capable of providing the billions of dollars of investment Tehran needs to maintain the capacity of its strategic oil sector." http://t.uani.com/n3QnKQ
Human Rights
AFP: "Iran has prevented a leading filmmaker from leaving the country to attend the Toronto film festival, where his documentary about a detained co-director is being shown, his spokeswoman said Thursday. Mojtaba Mirtahmasb's passport was seized when he tried to board a flight to Paris on Monday to promote the French release of "This is not a Film," spokeswoman Emmanuelle Zinggeler told AFP. The documentary depicts a day in the life of Jafar Panahi as he appeals his conviction for 'propaganda against the system' by an Iranian court for making a film about unrest after the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in June 2009. Panahi, who was sentenced in December to six years in prison and slapped with a 20-year filmmaking ban, is under house arrest in Tehran." http://t.uani.com/ppNNA2
Opinion & Analysis
Dan Murphy in CSM: "Pollster James Zogby surveyed Arab public opinion about Iran in June, and released his findings at the end of July... What Mr. Zogby found was a stunning reversal in Iran's general popularity among six Arab nations of the region. Five years ago, Iran and Hezbollah - the Shiite militant group that has become a major political power in Lebanon - were on a high, symbols of resistance to the US and foreign occupation in the region. But with the US drawdown in Iraq, the domestically driven political change sweeping countries like Egypt and Libya, and Iran's own brutality against domestic democracy activists, Iran's ability to exert soft power in the region has clearly taken a beating. Asked if Iran plays a positive or negative role in the region, large majorities in Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates said 'positive' five years ago. In the latest poll, those numbers were almost exactly reversed. In Morocco, Iran dropped from an 82 percent 'positive' rating in 2006, to an 85 percent 'negative' rating today. In Egypt, the shift was from 89 percent positive to 63 percent negative. In Saudi Arabia, it went from 85 percent positive to 80 percent negative, and in the UAE it went from 68 percent positive to 70 percent negative. Only in Lebanon itself, which has a large Shiite population, did Iran retain a positive rating, down from 71 percent positive last time around to 63 percent now... What does this mean in practical terms? I'm not really sure. Iranian political influence in its neighbor Iraq is a current fact of life. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki received support from Iran while he was fighting Saddam Hussein from exile and is close to Tehran, as are other Shiite and Kurdish political figures in Iraq. Polling of attitudes in countries like Egypt aren't going to change Iran's views of what's in its own best interests, and creating an alliance with Iraq - with which it fought a mutually ruinous war in the 1980s, has got to be near the top of the list. When I was living in Egypt and Baghdad, I remember much worry about the growing popularity of Iran in diplomatic circles. It's worth noting that now Arab publics are demanding and receiving a stronger voice inside their own countries, and that the tide of opinion in Iran's favor appears to have completely reversed." http://t.uani.com/mVsAMJ
Meir Javedanfar in Center for American Progress: "To say that Iranian foreign policy has seen better days would be an understatement. With the passing of each month, as the ripples of the Arab awakening reach new countries in the Middle East, Iran is finding that its popularity and influence in the region is waning. Even Turkey, who recently dealt a heavy diplomatic and strategic blow to Israel by expelling its ambassador, is snubbing Iran. The expressions of Iranian joy over the latest crisis in Turkey-Israel relations quickly turned to anger over Turkey's announcement that it will be hosting NATO's anti-missile system on its soil. The Turks took this decision despite repeated Iranian requests for them to do otherwise. As important as Iran's foreign policy standing is to its leaders, when it comes to the regime's number one goal, its own survival, foreign policy comes second to the economy. It is the economy which keeps the Islamic Republic alive. Iran's leaders have watched relations with the US collapse, yet they are still standing. Even if their close ally Assad falls, it's not clear by any means that it could lead to the collapse of the regime. But it's a different story with the economy. For Iran's leaders, the margin of error for the economy is far smaller than for its foreign policy standing and influence. The recent news that China has scaled back its investment in Iran's gas and oil sector should be particularly worrisome for Iran's leaders - possibly worse even than events unfolding in Syria, because this directly impacts Iran's economy, which gets majority of its income from its energy exports. With majority of the world's oil companies shunning Iran because of sanctions, China was one of the last countries which stood by Iran and its energy sector, which is in desperate need of investment and technological know-how. According to a study in a U.S. National Academy of Sciences publication in 2007, Iran could run out of oil for export by 2015. Lack of investment in the energy sector is one of the major reasons for this forecast." http://t.uani.com/n31KKM
Greg Jones in TNR: "The question of Tehran's status as nuclear power is a genuine matter of concern for international policymakers, but they have become far too accustomed to treating it as a perpetual hypothetical. The assumption has always been that Iran would never get a nuclear weapon, because the West would have enough advance warning to prevent that from happening, whether by means of diplomacy or force. Unfortunately, the time for hypotheticals has passed. Given the latest advances in Iran's enrichment program, and the weaknesses of the international community's existing monitoring, we must reckon with the fact that we likely won't have time to preempt Tehran's efforts to build a nuclear bomb. The international community has no choice but to already treat the Islamic Republic as a de facto nuclear state. Last Friday the IAEA confirmed that Iran had begun moving some of the centrifuges it uses to enrich uranium from its nuclear facility near the town of Natanz to a formerly clandestine underground site near Qom. This move is designed to facilitate Iran's plans to accelerate its production of medium enriched uranium, a substance that would be then relatively easy to convert to highly enriched uranium (HEU), the type that would be needed for a nuclear weapon. Indeed, it's indisputable that Iran already has sufficient infrastructure in place to make HEU. Iran would not even need to expand the centrifuge enrichment facilities it has used to make low and medium enriched uranium. It could simply continue the process and produce HEU using its existing centrifuges by a method known as 'batch recycling'. Given Iran's current enrichment capacity and its current stockpile of low and medium enriched uranium-information acquired through inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)-I estimate that Iran can produce enough HEU for a nuclear weapon in about eight weeks from the time it decided to do so. That timeframe will shrink to only about four weeks by the end of next year, as Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles and enrichment capacity continue to increase. And there are plenty of indications that Iran has a desire to produce a complete nuclear weapon. As the IAEA has already explained, Iran has the basic information to produce such a weapon and last Friday said that it was 'increasingly concerned' about Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons." http://t.uani.com/mOx6qp
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