Crucial Threat to Israel from Western Border
by Amos Harel
• Aug 23, 2012 at 2:18 am
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The developments on Israel's western border
might be far more crucial to its strategic situation, even compared to the
Iranian nuclear threat. The August 5 terror attack in northern Sinai, killing
16 Egyptian policemen, supplied the perfect excuse for the newly elected Mursi
regime in Cairo. Under the pretext of finally dealing with extremist Islamic
terrorism in the peninsula, the Egyptian President is aiming for something
more: re-defining the terms of The Egyptian-Israeli peace agreement, especially
regarding the security situation in Sinai.
Israel had previously ignored, or sometimes secretly approved, Egyptian
violations of the treaty. These always concerned deploying more battalions than
agreed, but only for a short period of time, in order to fight the terrorist
groups. This time, Cairo is aiming for a more serious goal. Not only had it
moved to Sinai more battalions and even tanks, with no prior consent from
Jerusalem, but the Egyptian media is full of reports of fighter aircraft and
heavy artillery batteries about to be deployed. These reports are not all
necessarily accurate, but what's important is that they are part of a bigger
plan – undermining the peace agreement, without actually deserting it
altogether.
Why is the Islamic Brotherhood government doing this? The most logical
explanation would be that it's done because of internal political reasons.
Changing the security part of the treaty had been one of the party's promises
during the election campaign. The Islamists claimed that the current treaty was
a humiliation for Egypt's national honor. I assume they will be going for a
de-facto change, believing Israel has no alternative but to agree, since the
Mursi regime would find it hard to actually sit down formally and re-negotiate
the contract with the Israelis.
For the time being, it's safe to assume that Mursi is not interested in
escalating the military situation with Israel. He still needs the US and
because of the economic situation in Egypt would not risk playing too many
dangerous games in Sinai. But Israel should follow events very carefully. This
is not only a matter of the situation in the peninsula. Perhaps more
importantly - if Netanyahu finally decides to strike Iran's nuclear sites,
shouldn't he consider a possible scenario, in which Mursi (soon to visit
Teheran for a conference), orders two army divisions to cross the Suez Canal
into Sinai?
Related Topics: Amos Harel
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