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Top Stories
AP: "Iran has significantly slowed work on nuclear
projects that could be used to make weapons, the U.N. atomic agency said
Thursday in a report that comes as six world powers and Iran report new
momentum in their nuclear talks. After years of rapid progress, Iran's
uranium enrichment program expanded at only a slight pace, as did
construction on a reactor that will produce substantial amounts of
plutonium once completed, the report said... Thursday's IAEA report noted
little expansion in that program since the IAEA's last survey in late
August. It said Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 20 percent - a
form that can quickly be further enriched to weapons-grade - grew by
about 10 kilograms (about 20 pounds) since the August report to total a
little less than 200 kilograms (440 pounds). That's about 50 kilograms
(110 pounds) less than the amount experts say is needed for further
conversion into weapons-grade uranium. It also reported that Iran
installed only 4 additional centrifuges at its main enrichment facility,
compared to 1,800 of the enriching machines between May and August, the
period covered by the last report. And it said no new advanced
centrifuges have been added to the 1,008 it had installed there as of
August." http://t.uani.com/19pY4lA
CSM: "Is it a good idea or a bad idea for US negotiators to arrive
at talks on Iran's nuclear program in Geneva next week with the US
Congress having just approved new sanctions on the Iranian economy? A
growing number of senators and representatives from both parties seem to
think more sanctions now is the way to go. A new round of tightening on
top of already tough US sanctions, they say, is the best way to convince
an economically hurting Iran to not just freeze its nuclear activities
but to start dismantling them as part of any initial negotiated deal...
Some members of Congress even suspect that the administration is
privately grateful for the 'bad cop' role Congress is playing in the
run-up to the resumption of talks next week, as it will allow the US to
caution Iran that congressional pressure is only building up... One
member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Virginia Democrat Gerald
Connolly, said he thought the administration was crying 'crocodile tears'
over the prospect of new sanctions. In the midst of the debate over the
pros and cons of approving new sanctions now, some experts are suggesting
a third way that could essentially turn new sanctions into both a carrot
and a stick in the Geneva talks. The idea: Congress could go ahead and
adopt a new round of sanctions, but agree to hold them in the breast
pocket, so to speak, for the six-month period designated for reaching a
broader agreement with Iran. Such an approach gives diplomacy the chance
that Kerry and others in the administration are asking for, while letting
Iran - and Israel and America's Arab partners - know that more economic
pain lies ahead without a deal." http://t.uani.com/1aI4b5d
Reuters: "President Barack Obama urged skeptical U.S. lawmakers on
Thursday to hold off on imposing new sanctions on Iran, saying that if
diplomacy fails to curb Tehran's nuclear program, any punitive measures
that are eased through negotiations could be 'ramped back up.' In his
most direct appeal yet for more time to pursue a diplomatic deal with
Iran, Obama sought to assuage concerns in Congress and among U.S. allies
including Israel and Saudi Arabia that his administration is giving away
too much in talks between Tehran and six world powers... 'If we're
serious about pursuing diplomacy, then there's no need for us to add new
sanctions on top of the sanctions that are already very effective, and
that brought them (the Iranians) to the table in the first place,' Obama
told a White House news conference. 'Now, if it turns out they can't
deliver, they can't come to the table in a serious way and get this issue
resolved, the sanctions can be ramped back up ... and we've got that
option,' he said." http://t.uani.com/19pZEnC
 Nuclear Program
AFP: "Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was unimpressed by a report
from the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency on Thursday that Iran
had frozen its nuclear activities... 'I am not impressed by the report
published this evening,' Netanyahu was quoted by his office as saying.
'Iran does not need to expand its programme because it already possesses
the necessary infrastructure for building a nuclear weapon.'" http://t.uani.com/1ifPCNN
AP: "Iran's foreign minister said Friday he was hopeful ahead of
negotiations next week with world powers but reiterated Tehran's demand
for recognition of what it calls its 'nuclear rights.' Talks with Iran on
the country's controversial nuclear program are set to resume Wednesday
in Geneva, after failing to strike an accord last weekend. 'I am always
hopeful. It is not possible to drive ahead without hope,' Foreign
Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told the semi-official Fars news agency.
'Of course, hope doesn't necessarily mean going without open eyes.'"
http://t.uani.com/1auc0P7
Sanctions
AFP: "US Secretary of State John Kerry Thursday revealed for the
first time that the United States is offering to free up 'a tiny portion'
of some $45 billion in Iranian assets frozen in bank accounts around the
world. As he campaigns to sell skeptical US lawmakers a nascent deal with
Iran to rein in its suspect nuclear program, Kerry insisted 'the core
sanctions regime does not really get eased.' 'Ninety-five percent or more
of the current sanctions will remain in place,' the top US diplomat told
MSNBC in an interview, after talks failed to reach a deal in Geneva at
the weekend. Before the sanctions began to bite, Tehran was earning about
$110 billion to $120 billion in annual revenue from oil sales, said
Kerry, who is leading the push to rally Congress behind efforts to strike
a deal to halt Iran's uranium enrichment. 'That has been knocked down to
about 40 to 45 billion now because of the sanctions and that 45 billion
is frozen in banks around the world. They can't access it,' Kerry
insisted. 'All we are talking about doing is a tiny portion of that would
be released because you have to do something to make it worth while for
them to say yes, we are going to lock our program where it is today and
actually roll it back.'" http://t.uani.com/1aXzmzy
Free Beacon: "A bipartisan group of 63 House lawmakers are calling
on the Senate to 'act swiftly' in the passage of a new round of Iran
sanctions that have been heavily opposed by the White House. The letter,
addressed to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) and Minority
Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), maintains that despite ongoing
negotiations with the West, 'the objective of the Iranian regime remains
the same: the pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability,' according to a
copy of the letter and list of co-signers obtained by the Washington Free
Beacon. Only the passage of a new round of sanctions will convince Iran
to end its nuclear activities, according to the letter, which was
spearheaded by Reps. Brad Sherman (D., Calif.), Peter Roskam (R., Ill.),
Grace Meng (D., N.Y.), and Michael McCaul (R., Texas)." http://t.uani.com/1eURX0D
Reuters: "South Korea's Iranian crude imports fell in October from
September, meeting a targetted 15 percent cut in its shipments from the
OPEC member for the June-November period to secure an extension of its
six-month U.S. sanctions waiver... South Korea imported 420,402 tonnes of
Iranian crude last month, or 99,405 barrels per day (bpd), down more than
a quarter compared with September and down nearly a half from a year
earlier, preliminary customs data showed on Friday. That puts the Asian
country's imports from Iran for June-October at 125,167 bpd, according to
Reuters calculations. The total means South Korea met the 125,814 bpd it
aims to achieve in its imports from Iran in the six months through
November." http://t.uani.com/1hLb3IH
Syria Conflict
Reuters: "More than two and a half years into the civil war
devastating Syria, the United States and Russia are pushing the
combatants to the negotiating table in Geneva, but on terms that mark a
shift in favor of Bashar al-Assad against the increasingly fragmented
rebels seeking to oust him. Since the August 21 nerve gas attacks on
rebel suburbs ringing Damascus, which brought the U.S. to the brink of a
missile assault on Assad's forces, the diplomatic tide has turned against
the opposition, which briefly believed external intervention would enable
its forces to launch a final offensive." http://t.uani.com/1bzUsSZ
Human Rights
BuzzFeed: "A new study from the University of Pennsylvania's
Annenberg School claims that Wikipedia might hold the key to
understanding how Iran censors, and controls, the internet. The answer,
in four words: with a heavy hand. Reports of internet censorship in Iran
have been a constant in the international media, but until now little was
known about the specific systems and methods the country uses to restrict
the flow of information online. The study, which used proxy servers
in Iran to scan Wikipedia's Persian-language articles, found that out of
800,000 entries, the Iranian government blocked 1,187 Persian Wikipedia
URLs that corresponded to 963 unique article pages, including 15 of the
site's top-100 Persian language articles. Of the top articles blocked,
many contained 'entries about homosexuality, orgasms, former Iranian
President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, and activist rapper Shahin Najafi,'
the study said. According to Collin Anderson, the researcher in charge of
the study, the growing popularity of Wikipedia's Persian-language site
(new entries have grown tenfold since 2006) created a microcosm from
which to study the Iranian internet as a whole. 'It's useful place to
uncover the types of online content forbidden and an excellent template
to identify keyword blocking themes and filtering rules that apply across
the greater internet,' he told BuzzFeed." http://t.uani.com/1hLfljp
AP: "Iran's culture minister has again spoken up in defense of
social media, saying Facebook shouldn't be banned and that it's not a
'criminal application.' Ali Jannati told the semi-official Fars news
agency on Friday that he uses and posts on Facebook and that an overseer
body should lift the existing ban. In the past, Jannati has advocated
that all social media networks be accessible to Iranians. Iran banned the
networks over alleged 'abuse' after opposition members widely used them
during the 2009 unrest following re-election of then-President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad." http://t.uani.com/1d1RfP9
Foreign Affairs
WSJ: "Lebanon mirrors the regional rivalry between the Sunni
monarchy of Saudi Arabia, which backs Future Movement, and the Shiite
religious leaders of Iran, who back Hezbollah. 'Frankly [Nasrallah's]
rhetoric is sectarian and inflammatory. It is unprecedented,' said Khaled
Daher, a prominent Sunni parliamentarian representing north Lebanon. 'It
stokes tension and increases hatred...He is using a painful historic
event [Ashura] for political reasons serving Iranian interests.' Mr.
Daher added that Mr. Nasrallah's speech on Thursday didn't represent a
'Shiite religion, but an Iranian religion. It is an Iranian religion with
an expansionist doctrine.'" http://t.uani.com/19pWOPs
Opinion
& Analysis
UANI CEO Mark Wallace & Advisory Board Members Sen.
Joseph Lieberman & Fran Townsend in Politico: "The high-stakes
diplomatic meetings that occurred in Geneva last weekend were not for the
faint of heart. By all accounts, the international community came
perilously close to signing off on a deal that would have given Tehran access
to billions of dollars in frozen funds and other sanctions relief in
exchange for a package of supposed concessions that did not include Iran
suspending its nuclear enrichment or slowing the construction of its
heavy-water reactor. Consensus ultimately failed due not only to
objections by the French, but also for the same reason that past talks
with Tehran have broken down: overreach by the Iranian regime.
Specifically, Iran once again insisted that the great powers accept its
so-called right to enrich-a notion without basis in international law.
The American people should not count on continual delay, however. With
another round of discussions scheduled to take place in a matter of days,
an agreement along the lines discussed in Geneva is still conceivable.
The danger now is that the international community will be tempted to
offer new concessions and sweeteners to reach an agreement, and Iran will
receive the sanctions relief it badly desires. We are particularly
troubled by statements from senior U.S. officials that have telegraphed a
desire to get to 'yes' in these talks as quickly as possible. This is why
we strongly feel that the U.S. Congress needs to become involved in this
process, and weigh in on the essential principles that would underpin any
nuclear agreement with Iran. It is quite an appropriate role for Congress
to play, given its authority in passing, lifting and potentially
increasing sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Iran desperately wants
sanctions relief. At the very least, Congress should insist that any
agreement that does lift sanctions should require the Iranian regime to
suspend its enrichment and reprocessing-related activities for a
substantial period. This is by no means an extreme position, but in fact
what has been previously demanded by the international community and
permanent members of the Security Council in multiple U.N. resolutions.
Given Iran's track record of deceptive and illicit nuclear conduct, it
would indeed be bizarre if the United States acceded to Iranian
enrichment-especially when responsible U.S. allies in the Middle East,
such as the United Arab Emirates, have explicitly foresworn such
technology. The failure to reach agreement in Geneva, and President
Hassan Rouhani's public statements afterward, suggest a wide divergence
between Iran and responsible governments. Rouhani's claims that
enrichment is a "red line" and Iran's 'right' under
international law are not consistent with any treaty or international
agreement. Rather, Iran's enrichment activities-which already go far
beyond what friendly nuclear powers have developed-are in violation of
international law. We appeal to Congress to enter this debate now, and
state what it deems to be an acceptable agreement with Iran. Given the
historic consequence of rapprochement with Iran and the impact of a
potential nuclear agreement, it is vitally important that the United
States speak with a united voice." http://t.uani.com/I3wy6Z
Ray Takeyh & Eric Edelman in LAT: "France has long established
itself as the guardian of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and its
disarmament mandates. A republic capable of much cynicism, France has
nonetheless defended the integrity of the treaty and protected its much
battered norms. This was the case last week in Geneva when France
resisted an agreement with Iran that it deemed insufficiently robust. For
now, Washington has conceded to Paris, provoking a chorus of criticism
from those who seek an accord at any price. Contrary to the critics'
claims, the United States' greatest diplomatic successes have come about
when it proved sensitive to the concerns of its allies and not just the
imperatives of its adversaries... The French objections seemed to center
on Iran's nearly completed plutonium plant in Arak and its growing
enrichment capacity, which offers it an easy path to the bomb. For Paris,
a provisional agreement is without much value unless it freezes not just
some but all of Iran's multiple paths to nuclear arms. Interim agreements
come and go but sanctions relief is irreversible. France's embrace of
principle over expediency has been censured as unwise if not
obstructionist. The Obama administration is advised to compel France's
acquiescence. The historical record indicates that America's negotiating
outcomes benefit from taking into account its allies' objections.
Washington should seek real consultation with Paris, not just pro-forma
efforts to 'inform' with an expectation that France will fall into line
with what might be politically acceptable - such as a desire for a 'deliverable'
outcome. As the negotiations with Iran ebb and flow, it is important to
appreciate that the cause of the current crisis is not French Foreign
Minister Laurent Fabius or Netanyahu but Iranian supreme leaderAyatollah
Ali Khamenei. It is not France that stands in violation of numerous
United Nations Security Council resolutions but Iran. It is not the
French foreign ministry that mocks these resolutions as illegitimate and
politically contrived but Iran's. And while Iran continues to defy and
defile the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, France has an honorable
history of seeking to shield it." http://t.uani.com/1bKnFsG
Abbas Milani in TNR: "Two conflicting realities have helped bring
about this sudden change of strategy, and unless we understand both, then
the ways to a potentially enduring solution to the now-snagged
negotiations can't be found. First and foremost, the nuclear reality the
Iranian regime apparently hoped for was to have a break-out capacity: the
ability to have not the bomb, but the ability to build one in short
order. All evidence is that such a break-out capacity is now a virtual
fait accompli. Iran now has some 19,000 centrifuges, ready to churn, an
ample supply of both 5- and 20-percent-enriched uranium, even the
technology to build new generation of centrifuges. Once and if they
decide to build the bomb, they can have the requisite highly enriched
uranium for at least one bomb in about a month. Enriched uranium is of
course only one aspect of having a break-out capacity. Other components
include weaponizing the uranium, miniaturizing the bomb, learning to
detonate it, and finding a delivery mechanism. There are different
estimates on how far they have developed along each of these components.
When the Arak heavy-water reactor becomes operational, the regime might
have an even shorter time to break-out. The fact that only this week the
regime announced new developments in their missile technology-including
testing a missile with solid fuels-has not helped quell anxieties about
the regime's break-out capacity. The second important fact to consider is
the cost of this break-out capacity. With the increasing bite of
sanctions, and with eight years of utter corruption and incompetence
during President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's tenure, the Islamic regime has
suddenly faced the reality that their long-sought break-out capacity has
been bought at an exorbitantly high price. With oil revenues drying up,
and increasing competition among factions within the regime for a
bigger share of the shrinking pie, Iran urgently needed an agreement to
end the sanctions. Those who oppose any deal with the regime believe that
not only making no deal at this time, but increasing sanctions, will
either bring about the collapse of the regime or convince it to roll back
its nuclear program. That argument, however, overlooks a critical point:
The regime, particularly Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his allies, are
surely inept but not suicidal. They have spent so much political and
economic capital on achieving the break-out capacity that any agreement
they could not sell to the Iranian people as a victory-or, in their new
language, a 'win-win'-would be tantamount to political suicide for them.
It is thus as much folly to think that the regime will, in desperation,
accept any deal-including one that requires a complete dismantlement of
their enrichment program-as it is to think that any deal they offer is
worth making." http://t.uani.com/17vUeaY
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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