Top Stories
LAT: "Iranian officials appear to be trying to sharply
lower expectations for the round of international nuclear negotiations
set to begin Thursday in Geneva. In an interview in a reformist
newspaper, Iranian nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi said he expects this
week's session will focus on the broad outline of negotiations, and that
he doesn't foresee the first concrete steps toward a deal for about three
months. 'If both sides have goodwill, and if the seriousness and
political will both sides have shown so far continues, then within three
months we can get to the first step,' Aftab reported Araqchi as saying.
The prediction suggests a much slower timetable than Iranian officials
described six weeks ago. At meetings at the United Nations in September,
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif spoke of his hope for
concluding the entire deal within three or six months. The comments
appear to reflect 'seriously lower expectations,' said Ray Takeyh, an
Iranian specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations... But Takeyh
added that Araqchi's comments could be a tactical move -- a 'head fake'
-- in advance of the new meeting, which is the second in three weeks...
Araqchi reportedly told Aftab that 'if new sanctions are approved,
definitely, the path of negotiations will be destroyed.'" http://t.uani.com/1aENcXp
NYT: "Two days before negotiations resume in Geneva between Iran and
the United States and other Western powers aimed at ending a fight over
the disputed Iranian nuclear program, the country's foreign minister
sounded an optimistic note on Tuesday, saying a deal was possible as soon
as this week. 'I believe it is even possible to reach that agreement this
week,' Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in an interview with
France 24, a major television network here, before meeting with the
French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius. 'But I can only talk for our
side,' Mr. Zarif added. 'I cannot talk for the other side.' ... At the
last Geneva meeting in mid-October, Iran announced that it had offered a framework
for talks, and the approach was well received by American officials.
However, the parties are still far from a deal, which would have multiple
elements and would have to satisfy even countries that are not directly
involved in the negotiations, like Israel, which has long feared that
Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon secretly, regardless of what it says
publicly." http://t.uani.com/17MnGx4
RFE/RL: "Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has
launched a new initiative aimed at stirring debate among the Iranian
public about the country's nuclear program. The nuclear issue, she says,
is more than just a political matter. 'It is a subject of national
concern that directly influences people's daily lives,' she writes in an
online appeal, which as of November 5 had been signed by more than 300
intellectuals and activists both inside and outside of Iran. The human
rights lawyer and former judge outlined the aims of her new initiative,
titled 'National Dialogue on Nuclear Energy,' in an interview with
RFE/RL. 'My goal is to create scientific, economic, and environmental
discussions to demonstrate to the people the pro and cons of nuclear
energy. Then it will be up to the people to decide whether the nuclear
policy of the government has been well-advised or not,' Ebadi says.
Ebadi, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2003 for her human-rights
efforts in Iran, hopes that Farsi-language media outside of Iran, news
websites, and social-networking outlets will help promote the debate on
the nuclear issue. Ebadi, who has come under pressure by the Iranian
regime and has lived in exile abroad since 2009, says censorship has
prevented such a debate inside Iran... Ebadi says that since 2005, state
media have been only allowed to carry official statements about the
nuclear program. As a result, she says, environmental issues and the
economic advantages and disadvantages of a nuclear program have not been
debated publicly... An Iranian recently used the Facebook page of Foreign
Minister Javad Zarif to challenge some of the official statements
regarding Tehran's nuclear activities. 'Nuclear energy is our last
inalienable right,' wrote the user, adding that Iranians have other
important rights. 'Living without stress is our inalienable right.
Healthy food and healthy air is our inalienable right. Appropriate jobs
and adequate wages is our inalienable right. Psychological and social
security is our inalienable right. Freedom of speech is our inalienable
right,' the user wrote." http://t.uani.com/1hMCcZe
 Nuclear
Program
WSJ: "Iranian
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Wednesday said Iran was ready to
reach an agreement on Tehran's nuclear program during upcoming talks in
Geneva without offering details on how a deal might be reached. Mr.
Zarif seized on a series of interviews with French media during a two-day
visit to Paris to turn up pressure on Western countries, including the
U.S. and France, which remain wary about whether Tehran is ready to
provide guarantees that its nuclear program won't be used for military
purposes. On Thursday, Mr. Zarif is due to hold talks on the program with
negotiators from the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., France and Germany.
'We could conclude this week in Geneva,' Mr. Zarif told daily Le Monde in
an interview published Wednesday afternoon. 'If that's not the case, it's
not a disaster as long as we make progress,' he added... 'The West must
stop dictating their solutions,' Mr. Zarif said. 'Let's seek mutually
acceptable solutions that keep the Iranian program as transparent as
possible and help ensure it remains peaceful.' ... 'We have already
defined from our perspective what the common objective is: An Iranian
nuclear project, including enrichment, which remains exclusively
peaceful,' he said in an interview with broadcaster France 24." http://t.uani.com/1hiWFqY
Haaretz: "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has talked tougher in
recent days about Iran's nuclear program, but both Jerusalem and
Washington admit that despite the hard line, the gaps between the United
States and Israel on the issue are closing... Israeli officials said
Jerusalem would agree to tacitly accept American concessions to Iran if
the concessions did not include significant changes to the sanctions and
ensured a halt in Iran's uranium enrichment program during the talks. As
recent talks with White House and State Department officials were going
on, one senior Israeli official said the Americans were not considering
lifting the sanctions against Iran. Instead, they would unfreeze some $3 billion
in Iranian funds held in Western banks, to be used as humanitarian aid.
In return, the Iranians would be asked to halt uranium enrichment... Both
Israeli and U.S. officials said the strategic disagreement between the
two countries had been solved and that they agree that the goal is both
to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and from obtaining the
ability to produce such arms. According to the two sides, the only
disagreement centered on negotiating tactics." http://t.uani.com/187l9tx
WSJ: "The U.S. said Tuesday it was going ahead with its
missile-defense plans for Europe despite improving relations with Iran,
one of the main threats the system is designed to counter. The U.S.
expects to put land-based missile interceptors in northern Poland by
2018, three years after a site in Romania is to become operational. The
base in Poland will seek to protect Europe and the U.S. from ballistic
missile attacks ballistic missile attacks that could be launched mainly
from Iran. On the only European stop of a weeklong tour focused on the
Middle East, Secretary of State John Kerry was asked in Poland whether
that element of the system could be abandoned, considering U.S. diplomacy
and international talks with Iran over its nuclear program. 'There is no
agreement with Iran,' Mr. Kerry told a news conference in Warsaw.
'Nothing has changed and the plans for missile defense are absolutely on
target,' he added." http://t.uani.com/HzrGHb
Free Beeacon: "The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has
overwhelmingly approved an Iranian-authored resolution advocating global
nuclear disarmament, a U.N. official told the Washington Free Beacon on
Monday. The UNGA's First Committee, which deals with disarmament issues,
voted 113-52 in favor of Iran's nuclear disarmament resolution, which
calls for 'the total elimination' of member states' nuclear arsenals,
according to a copy of the draft resolution published in the Iranian
press. Fifty-two member states, including the United States and Israel,
voted against the disarmament measure, according to a vote tally provided
by the U.N. Seven nations, including China and Pakistan, abstained from
the vote, which took place on Thursday... Iran was appointed to serve as
a member of the U.N.'s Committee on Disarmament earlier this month. The
committee is chaired by Libya... Some believe that Iran is pushing the
United States in negotiations to declare the Middle East a nuclear-free
zone, which would subject Israel to greater pressure. Gary Samore, who
formerly served as President Barack Obama's White House coordinator for
arms control and the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) Terrorism, said
the United States would never submit to such a deal." http://t.uani.com/1dNk4fa
Sanctions
Gallup: "With talks between major powers and Iran set to resume
Thursday in Geneva, most Iranians are continuing to feel squeezed by
sanctions. More than four in five (85%) in Iran now say international
sanctions have hurt their own livelihoods, including 50% who say they
have been hurt a great deal. A higher percentage of Iranians say
sanctions have hurt the livelihood of Iranians as a people overall.
Despite the perceived economic toll, two in three (68%) Iranians say
their country should continue to develop nuclear power despite the scale
of sanctions against Iran. This higher support in the face of
international pressure highlights the role Iranian nationalism plays in
the nuclear standoff with the West. Support is lower when Iranians are
asked if they approve or disapprove of their country developing nuclear
capabilities for military (34%) and non-military purposes (56%)." http://t.uani.com/16FNf1K
Syria Conflict
Reuters: "Iran's foreign minister signalled on Tuesday that Tehran
could use its influence to encourage non-Syrian forces fighting in Syria
to withdraw from the country. 'Iran is prepared to call for the
withdrawal of all foreign forces from Syria,' Mohammad Javad Zarif told
France 24. 'We are prepared for everybody with influence to push for
(the) withdrawal of all non-Syrians from the Syrian soil.' Zarif was
responding to a question on whether Iran would be prepared to use its
influence over Lebanese shi'ite group Hezbollah, which is fighting
alongside President Bashar al-Assad's forces in Syria." http://t.uani.com/HwWCYi
Reuters: "The United States and Russia failed on Tuesday to agree on
a date for a Syrian peace conference, remaining divided over what role
Iran might play in talks to end the civil war and over who would
represent Syria's opposition... Russia said Iran, Assad's main sponsor, must
be invited to any peace talks, after the main Syrian political opposition
leader said his coalition would not attend if Tehran took part. The U.S.
official said Washington recognized Iran was going to play a role in the
region and wanted to ensure it was not a negative one. 'But ... the
United States believes everybody who comes to the Geneva conference
should subscribe to the Geneva communique, have made that commitment
before they come. Iran has not chosen to do that.' The official also
pointed to the Lebanese Shi'ite group Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran
and is fighting alongside Assad's forces in Syria. 'Obviously we have
some great concerns about Iran's participation in the conflict and Iran's
financing of Lebanese Hezbollah,' the official said." http://t.uani.com/1fjnLtq
Human Rights
IHR: "According to the official Iranian media 15 prisoners have been
executed in different Iranian cities on Sunday and Monday this week. Two
prisoners were hanged in the prison of Semnan (northern Iran)... Five
prisoners were hanged in the prison of Kermanshah (western Iran)... Six
prisoners were hanged in Kerman (southeastern Iran).. One prisoner was
hanged in the prison of Birjand (eastern Iran)... Iranian authorities
confirm execution of the Kurdish political prisoner Shirko Moarefi...
Bultannews showed a photoshop-manipulated picture and wrote that Shirko
Moarefi was member of 'an armed terrorist group who was arrested when
entering Iran'. Shirko Moarefi has denied any involvement in armed
acts." http://t.uani.com/HJvVPL
Opinion
& Analysis
ISIS: "Iran and the P5+1 are set to resume talks on
Iran's nuclear program on Thursday, November 7 in Geneva. ISIS has
developed a list of irreducible elements that should be goal achievements
of a negotiated interim agreement. These irreducible elements would
accomplish the following goals:
- Stopping
the advance of Iran's centrifuge and Arak reactor programs;
- Extending
breakout times;
- Capping the
Iranian centrifuge program and ensuring that it will not expand
beyond this cap (in terms of enrichment output) during the next 5-15
years; and
- Increasing
the chance of finding a secret centrifuge or plutonium separation
plant.
Other, vital questions not addressed here:
- How to
establish adequate transparency in general, including Iran
addressing the IAEA's concerns about Iran's past and possibly
on-going nuclear weapons efforts?
- How to
trade Iranian concessions for sanctions relief? In the longer
term, what incentives package is appropriate and how to increase
Iran's supply of medical isotopes and nuclear electricity?
The 'Freeze Plus' interim
agreement should seek the following elements:
- Freezing
the Iranian centrifuge program and extending breakout times...
- Preliminary
steps aimed at helping ensure Iran is not building another centrifuge
plant and increasing the chance of detecting a secret centrifuge
plant...
- Halting
further construction of the Arak reactor, including the manufacture
of its fuel.
- Ensuring
that Iran agrees that future sanctions relief requires that Iran
address fully and cooperatively the IAEA's concerns about Iran's
alleged past and possibly on-going work on nuclear weapons.
In essence, these conditions amount to a freeze plus a few
reductions in the scale of the centrifuge program, a few modest
declarations, and a few additional transparency and disablement
steps. A longer term agreement would need to include far more
detailed conditions on the scope and timing of Iran's nuclear program,
far more intrusive inspection arrangements, and much more detailed declarations
about Iran's nuclear programs." http://t.uani.com/1b91tYX
UANI Outreach Coordinator Bob Feferman in the Virginian-Pilot:
"November will be crucial in the efforts of the international
community to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. This week, the negotiating
team of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus
Germany (known as P5+1) is conducting another round of negotiations with
Iranian representatives. The outcome of these talks will have a direct
effect on our future. It would be wholly irresponsible for the world to
sit by and allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon. This is a country
controlled by a violent and confrontational regime that sponsors
terrorists around the world such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi groups and
the Taliban. Iran is responsible for the deaths of Israeli civilians and
U.S. soldiers, including many from Virginia. In 2011, operatives of
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp even plotted to assassinate the
Saudi ambassador to Washington in a popular restaurant in Georgetown. In
the 1990s, Iran and its proxy Hezbollah provided training for al-Qaida
operatives leading to the truck bombings of two American embassies in
Kenya and Tanzania in August 1998. Can anyone guarantee that a
nuclear-armed Iran would not use a weapon to threaten and/or harm America
and its allies? This time, instead of a destroyed embassy in Africa, we
could be talking about a nuclear device placed into a shipping container
and sent to a port to destroy an entire city. That city could be Ashdod
or Haifa in Israel, or it could be New York or Norfolk. Since the
American people have a clear stake in the outcome of these negotiations,
we also have a responsibility to take part in the effort to prevent a
nuclear-armed Iran. The organization I represent, United Against Nuclear
Iran, was created to provide citizen-activists with the tools to help
prevent a nuclear-armed Iran. Over the past five years, UANI
citizen-activists have played a major role in pressuring dozens of
major-multinational companies to end their business in Iran. One such
example is the UANI campaign to convince the Danish shipping company,
Maersk, to end its business in Iran. Following a 2-1/2-year campaign,
Maersk chose to do the right thing and stop docking at Iranian ports
controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Today, thanks to the
economic pressure resulting from the sanctions enacted by Congress and
the campaigns of UANI, the new Iranian resident, Hassan Rouhani, is
offering a more conciliatory message. However, we must not confuse
Rouhani's nice words for real substance." http://t.uani.com/HJskRZ
Clyde Russell in Reuters: "Middle East oil prices may rise relative
to other global crudes and physical premiums stand to gain, assuming
Asia's major buyers cut purchases from Iran. China, Japan, South Korea
and, to a lesser extent, India have some work to do in order to reduce
imports from Iran if they are to satisfy requirements for renewing
waivers from the United States on sanctions on buying Iranian crude.
While the four major buyers of Iranian crude cut purchases by 11.5
percent to 953,567 barrels per day (bpd) in the first nine months of the
year from the same period in 2012, much of this is due to a 40 percent
slump in Indian buying. The United States, which is using sanctions
against Tehran in an attempt to force the Islamic republic to open up its
nuclear programme to international scrutiny, will review in November
whether to extend six-month waivers granted to the Asian buyers. China,
Iran's biggest customer, will have to cut the most in order to meet its
own target for a reduction of 5-10 percent in oil purchases from Iran.
China bought in about 428,000 bpd of Iranian crude in the January to
September period, a gain of 1.4 percent on the same period last year. To
make a 10 percent cut, China would have to lower imports for the October
to December period to around 238,000 bpd, or about 240,000 bpd below the
478,500 bpd it imported in September. Japan's imports from Iran for the
first nine months were 194,136 bpd, a gain of 2 percent, and they were
252,200 bpd in September, a jump of 35 percent on the same month in 2012.
If the world's third-biggest crude importer were to also make a 10
percent cut for the whole of 2013, imports for the last quarter would
have to drop to around 110,000 bpd. South Korea doubled its imports from
Iran to 139,700 bpd in September from August, but overall is still closer
to its target of cutting them to 125,800 bpd for the June to November
period. To reach the target, South Korea's imports will have to decline
to about 110,000 bpd in October and November. India's January to
September imports stood at 193,900 bpd, a slump of 40 percent over the
same period last year. However, India bought 296,100 bpd in September, a
massive 96 percent jump on August's imports. The large reduction in
imports earlier in the year has given India wiggle room, but it probably
isn't politically a good idea to be ramping up imports from Iran just
prior to the U.S. waiver decision if India wishes to be seen to be
cooperating with one of its allies. Leaving India aside, China, Japan and
South Korea would have to cut imports from Iran by about a 410,000 bpd in
October and November from September's levels to come close to meeting
targets. It appears that they are already making steep cuts, with Iran's
oil shipments in October dropping 30 percent year-on-year to 719,000 bpd,
the lowest since April, according to a Reuters report on Oct. 25. This
was down from 966,800 bpd in September and the risk is that November
loadings will also fall as Asian buyers try to limit purchases from Iran.
However, overall imports in Asia are unlikely to fall, particularly in
China where new refinery units are being commissioned in the fourth
quarter. This means there is likely to be a scramble for other crudes,
particularly the heavy, sour grades that refiners typically get from
Iran." http://t.uani.com/17aSE3i
Emily Landau in Haaretz: "At a superficial level, one could be
excused for assuming that Iran's position in the nuclear negotiations
with the P5+1 should not be that strong. After all, Iran violated its
commitment to the international community not to work on a military
nuclear program, leading to the imposition of a long list of UN and
unilateral (mainly U.S. and EU) economic and financial sanctions.
Moreover, when facing the P5+1 at the negotiating table, Iran faces the
combined political, military and economic strength of these six powers
that far outweighs its own. But as is quite well known, for a number of
reasons that go to the structure of these talks, Iran's bargaining
position has actually proven to be quite robust. One of the less
appreciated, but probably more effective bargaining tactics that Iran has
employed in dealing with the international community - in the hope of
further strengthening its hand - is what might be called the 'frame
game.' This refers to Iran's attempts to rhetorically frame issues
relating to the negotiation in a manner that is in line with its own
interests and positions, and with the hope of ultimately basing them as
the widely accepted interpretation. Several rhetorical tactics employed
by Iran in order to turn its own messages and interpretations into the
generally accepted ones can be identified. One commonly used tactic is
quite straight-forward: The incessant repetition of certain messages, in
every context, and at every turn, until they begin to sound like accepted
common knowledge. This tactic has been employed regarding statements that
Iran has an 'inalienable right' to enrich uranium; that the international
community accuses Iran of working on a military program but has never
come up with evidence to support this; that Iran has answered all
outstanding questions to the satisfaction of the IAEA; and that Iran has
no intention of developing nuclear weapons. These statements are either
untrue or only partially true, but by incessantly repeating them, Iran
intends to make them sound absolutely true. One of Iran's major
problems at the negotiations table is that the crisis is inherently
non-symmetric. Iran made a commitment by joining the NPT and is now in
violation of that commitment. The negotiation is thus fundamentally about
compelling Iran to return to its commitments - it is not a give and take
between two parties. But, this is where another 'frame game' tactic comes
into play: Namely, Iran's attempts to reframe the negotiation as more
symmetrical than it is, so that it can demand a give and take. Creating
an image of symmetry between the two sides can go a long way in the
negotiating room; if both sides seem equally at fault, they then have an
equal responsibility to improve the situation. So by framing the
negotiation as a give and take, Iran increases its leverage at the
table... At the end of the day, Iran's frame game can also come back to
haunt it. The new and more positive atmosphere that has been displayed by
the Iranian team in the Geneva negotiations has created very strong
expectations in many quarters for a substantively different approach -and
results. If this proves not to be the case, disappointment could lead to
much harsher measures." http://t.uani.com/19CN1tF
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