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Top Stories
Politico: "A
ten-day delay in talks aimed at negotiating an interim halt to Iran's
nuclear program could allow opponents of such a deal to build momentum on
Capitol Hill, analysts said Monday... And that delay is essentially
forcing the administration into a more public and high-profile defense of
more diplomacy with Iran, and the Senate to hold off on a vote on new
sanctions against Tehran. Vice President Joe Biden spoke to Sen. Chuck
Schumer (D-N.Y.) Monday to encourage the senate to avoid any moves that
might scuttle the next round of talks, said a source familiar with the
conversation first reported by The Hill... Meanwhile, groups who have
been vocal about the Iranian nuclear threat are clearly delighted with
the additional time to urge Congress to get more involved, even as
administration officials are warning senators not to upset the delicate
negotiations. 'The result of Geneva is that Congress will now have an
opportunity, which it must take, to speak up on what it views as the
essential principles of an Iranian nuclear agreement,' said United
Against Nuclear Iran's Mark Wallace, a former U.S. representative at the
U.N. under President George W. Bush." http://t.uani.com/HRS2EB
AFP:
"Israeli security sources claimed Tuesday that Iran's controversial
nuclear programme has cost the country $170 billion, mostly due to tough
economic sanctions. The figures came as Israel and the US were locked in
a war of words over negotiations between world powers and Iran that could
see sanctions relaxed in exchange for Tehran curbing or freezing parts of
its controversial nuclear programme. Of the $170 billion price tag, $40
billion were 'invested over the past 20 years in the construction and
operation of nuclear infrastructure,' the sources told AFP. They said
Iran had 'lost $130 billion because of sanctions put in place since
2012,' including $105 million linked to the oil sector and $25 billion to
banking, trade and industry, development and investment." http://t.uani.com/1eHxIDM
WSJ:
"Secretary of State John Kerry will brief senators this week on U.S.
nuclear talks with Iran, a step that comes as Congress considers imposing
new layers of punitive sanctions on the Persian Gulf country. Senators
had agreed to the Obama administration's request to delay action on new
sanctions while diplomatic efforts were under way. But three days of
talks with Iran in Geneva failed to produce an interim agreement that the
administration hoped to reach... Now that negotiations have failed to
produce a deal, senators plan to await the administration's briefing on
Wednesday before deciding whether to move ahead with the tougher
sanctions or wait for further diplomatic efforts, a Banking Committee
aide said." http://t.uani.com/HRQnPw
 Nuclear Negotiations
Reuters: "British
Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Monday that there would be
pressure to intensify sanctions on Iran if it could not reach a deal with
world powers over its disputed nuclear programme. But if Tehran could
strike a preliminary agreement, world powers would lift some of the
sanctions they have imposed on it offering it 'limited, proportionate
sanctions relief,' Hague added, saying he felt there was a real chance of
getting a deal... 'It's very important for the Iranian authorities to
understand that the pressure will be there for greater sanctions, for an
intensification of sanctions, unless an agreement is reached on these
matters,' Hague told parliament. Playing down reports that France had
blocked a deal, Hague said world powers had presented a united front to
Iran at the end of the discussions." http://t.uani.com/1j1GWrJ
AFP:
"A framework accord signed Monday in Tehran by the UN atomic agency
and Iran is only a very preliminary step towards addressing concerns
about Tehran's nuclear programme, analysts said. In particular it does
very little to ease fears about the nuclear reactor Iran is building in
Arak and no specific mention is made of the watchdog's long-stalled probe
into alleged past efforts to develop an atomic bomb. But at the same
time, it keeps the momentum going in separate but related efforts to
resolve the long-running standoff over Iran ahead of a fresh round of
talks with world powers in Geneva on November 20... The accord also
steers clear of detailing how and when Iran might address possible
evidence highlighted by the IAEA that prior to 2003, and possibly since,
Iran conducted research into how to make a nuclear weapon components.
Iran rejects the claims. For two years it has resisted IAEA requests to
visit sites where these alleged activities took place as well as to
consult documents and speak to Iranian scientists. The sites include the
Parchin military base where the IAEA wants to probe claims that
scientists conducted tests of conventional explosives that it says would be
'strong indicators of possible nuclear weapon development.'" http://t.uani.com/HRQdrr
AFP:
"Iran and Russia on Tuesday blamed friction among world powers for
the failure of talks in Geneva that had come tantalisingly close to a
landmark deal on Tehran's nuclear programme. The two states dismissed US
Secretary of State John Kerry's claim that Iran had balked just as the
so-called P5+1 world powers were closing in on a deal to curb Tehran's
nuclear activities in return for sanctions relief. 'The P5+1 was unified
on Saturday when we presented our proposal to the Iranians... But Iran
couldn't take it,' Kerry, who took part in the talks, said in Abu Dhabi
on Monday. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif rejected Kerry's
comments, while alluding to statements by his French counterpart Laurent
Fabius, who has been pilloried in the Iranian media after reports emerged
that he had scuppered the potential deal. 'Mr Secretary, was it Iran that
gutted over half of US draft Thursday night? And publicly commented
against it Friday morning?' Zarif said on his Twitter account... Russia
also denied Iran was to blame for the failure to agree on a landmark
interim agreement that would have frozen much of Tehran's programme while
the two sides worked on a comprehensive deal. 'The draft joint document
suited the Iranian side. But since decisions at negotiations are taken by
consensus, it was not possible to make a final deal,' a foreign ministry
source said in comments carried by all Russia's main news agencies."
http://t.uani.com/1hCJcdR
Sanctions
Reuters:
"India's Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd may import about 6 million
barrels of Iranian oil by March 31 if New Delhi starts a fund to back
local insurers for covering plants processing oil from the sanctions-hit
nation, its head of refineries said. HPCL halted Iranian oil imports from
April due to problems getting coverage for refineries running Iranian
crude because of EU sanctions banning European reinsurers from the
business. That forced India to consider a 20-billion-rupee ($320-million)
fund to back local insurance companies willing to step into the gap. The
oil ministry has said the insurance problem will be resolved, HPCL's head
of refineries B.K. Namdeo told reporters. 'This month, things could get
formalised. For the remaining four months (of the fiscal year), we can
get around 0.8 million tonnes from Iran,' he said. That would represent
nearly 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil shipments over the
December-March period, about a quarter more than what India was taking
over the first nine months of the calendar year." http://t.uani.com/1eHB3m1
Terrorism
Reuters:
"Hamas, with robust political and military wings, rules the Gaza
Strip and is clearly the senior Islamist party. Islamic Jihad has no
ambition to govern, but it is quietly putting on muscle and has become
the go-to group for both Iran and Syria... In an eight-day conflagration
with Israel last November, Islamic Jihad surprised many Palestinians by
becoming the first militant group to fire an Iranian-made missile some 70
km (44 miles) up the coast towards Israel's financial hub, Tel Aviv...
Like Hamas, Islamic Jihad is a Sunni group, but even as old Sunni-Shi'ite
divisions rend the fabric of the Middle East, it has kept close to
Shi'ite Iran - and continues to receive Iranian funding put at more than
$50 million a year by Israel." http://t.uani.com/17RzZdt
AFP:
"A Yemeni court on Tuesday sentenced crew members of a vessel
intercepted with an arms shipment allegedly from Iran to between three
and 10 years in prison. The court in the main southern city of Aden
jailed three defendants for six years and four others for one year, an
AFP correspondent in the special court reported. Another man was given a
three-year jail term while a ninth, who remains at large, was handed a
10-year term. The group, all Yemenis, were found guilty of 'collaborating
with Iran' and 'smuggling arms from Iran to Yemen aboard Jihan II,'
according to the chargesheet. The ship and its cargo were confiscated.
Yemeni authorities on January 23 intercepted the shipment which they said
was carrying surface-to-air missiles, Katyusha rockets, explosives,
ammunition and surveillance systems. The Yemeni coast guard, in
coordination with the US navy, intercepted the Jihan II in the Arabia Sea
and authorities said it had set off from Iran... A 2007 UN resolution
bans Iran from exporting arms." http://t.uani.com/1aCuV6X
Human Rights
AFP:
"Iran on Monday arrested Ali Asghar Gharavi, the author of a
controversial article seen by critics as questioning the beliefs of
Shiite Islam, a prosecutor general said. 'In regards with the banned
newspaper (Bahar), the author of that article was arrested yesterday,'
prosecutor Mohseni Ejeie was quoted as saying by Fars news agency. In
late October, the pro-reformist Bahar daily published an opinion piece
penned by Gharavi, which drew heavy criticism from the authorities. Bahar
had issued an apology, saying publishing the article was an
'unintentional mistake' and it had temporarily suspended activities to
'ease the tensions.' But the Iran's press watchdog banned the reformist
daily and Saeed Pourazizi, the head of newspaper, was arrested on
November 2 for publishing the article. He was later freed on bail.
Judiciary chief Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani has warned his department will
'act with determination against those who falsify the history and try to
undermine the fundamentals of the regime.'" http://t.uani.com/1dlnYLq
Domestic
Politics
AFP:
"The International Monetary Fund said Monday that it held high-level
discussions with Iranian officials on the need to combat inflation and
undertake reforms to get the economy growing. The IMF said the Iranian
economy, which has been crippled by UN-backed sanctions over its nuclear
program, faces domestic challenges as well and that the new government
was aware of the need of reforms. Ten days of discussions that ended
Thursday 'focused on the need for Iran to tackle high inflation and
restore economic growth, as well as on the need for Iran to begin
addressing long-standing policy and structural challenges in the
economy,' the Fund said in a statement. Those challenges include
reforming subsidies, the banking and corporate sectors, and monetary and
fiscal policy frameworks, the IMF said... Meanwhile the IMF said it will
undertake a formal review of Iran's economy, known as an Article IV
Consultation, early next year, the first such review in two years." http://t.uani.com/HUMAjt
Opinion
& Analysis
WashPost Editorial: "Supports and
opponents of an accord with Iran on its nuclear program ought to agree
that the latest pause in the talks was fortunate. On Saturday night in
Geneva, Secretary of State John F. Kerry and representatives of five
other countries appeared close to completing an interim agreement with
Tehran despite the vociferous objections of Israel and many members of
the U.S. Congress. One close ally, France, was worried about what its
foreign minister called a 'fool's game.' Mr. Kerry said that in the end
Iran backed away from a deal. But the Obama administration could
profitably spend the time before the next round of talks ensuring that
whatever terms it puts forward for limiting Iranian nuclear capacity have
broad support in Washington and among U.S. allies. The administration's
strategy has raised doubts on two grounds. One is its aim of striking a
temporary bargain that would limit Iranian nuclear work in exchange for a
partial rollback of sanctions, with the goal of completing a permanent
agreement in six months. Israel and some congressional critics say any easing
of sanctions should only follow decisive moves by Iran to give up its
capacity to enrich uranium or produce plutonium, the key elements in
nuclear bombs. They argue that because sanctions are crippling the
Iranian economy, time is on the side of the West. They warn that any
relaxation of pressure could lead to an unintended crumbling of the
sanctions regime. Mr. Kerry answers that 'each day that you don't have an
agreement' Iran will move closer to a bomb - and that a final settlement
will take time to negotiate. Freezing the program would allow talks to
move forward without the risk that Tehran will take steps - such as
introducing a new generation of centrifuges or fueling a new
plutonium-producing reactor - that could compel military action by the United
States or Israel. The corresponding sanctions relief, including the
unfreezing of some Iranian assets, would not change legal mandates and
could be quickly reversed, officials say. That argument strikes us as
reasonable. But the skeptics, who in Geneva seemed to include France's
foreign minister, made some troubling points about the specific terms on
which the Obama administration appeared prepared to agree to. One
concerned the new heavy water reactor: Iran wanted to continue its
construction during negotiations. Since it's hard to imagine a permanent
settlement that allowed for the operation of the facility, the West
should insist on a freeze... The Obama administration is right to move
forward - but it should work harder to align any deal with its goals and
to bring Congress and allies on board." http://t.uani.com/1gFPDve
Babak Dehghanpisheh & Steve Stecklow in Reuters
Investigates: "An organization controlled by
Iran's supreme leader generates billions of dollars a year, helping to
solidify his control over a country hobbled by sanctions. Seven years
ago, the United Nations and Western powers began subjecting Tehran to
steadily harsher economic sanctions. Around the same time, an
organization controlled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei started
to study how some developing economies managed to grow fast. Setad, as
the organization is known, had amassed billions of dollars in property
seized from Iranian citizens. What Iran lacked and needed, Setad decided,
was conglomerates on a par with those of South Korea, Japan, Brazil and
the United States. According to an account this year by a senior official
in the unit that oversees Setad's financial investments, Ali Ashraf
Afkhami, the organization also picked the perfect candidate to create an
Iranian national champion: Setad itself. The ayatollah's organization
would go on to acquire stakes in a major bank by 2007 and in Iran's
largest telecommunications company in 2009. Among dozens of other
investments, it took over a giant holding company in 2010. An
organizational chart labeled 'SETAD at a Glance,' prepared in 2010 by one
of Setad's companies and seen by Reuters, illustrates how big it had
grown. The document shows holdings in major banks, a brokerage, an
insurance company, power plants, energy and construction firms, a
refinery, a cement company and soft drinks manufacturing. Today, Setad's
vast operations provide an independent source of revenue and patronage
for Supreme Leader Khamenei, even as the West squeezes the Iranian
economy harder with sanctions in an attempt to end the
nuclear-development program he controls. "He has a huge sum at his
disposal that he can spend," says Mohsen Sazegara, a co-founder of
the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military force, who is now
living in exile in the United States. "When you have this much
money, that's power itself." Even as Setad was gaining ever-greater
control over the Iranian economy in recent years, the Western powers knew
of the organization and its connection to the supreme leader - the one
man with the power to halt Tehran's uranium-enrichment program. But they
moved cautiously, and Setad largely escaped foreign pressure. In July
2010, the European Union included Mohammad Mokhber, president of Setad,
in a list of individuals and entities it was sanctioning for alleged
involvement in "nuclear or ballistic missiles activities." Two
years later, it removed him from the list. In June, the U.S. Treasury
Department added Setad and 37 companies it "oversees" to its
list of sanctioned entities. Khamenei wasn't named in the announcement,
but a Treasury official later told a Senate committee that Setad is
controlled by the supreme leader's office... One of Setad's biggest deals
came in 2009, when it acquired a large minority stake in Iran's biggest
telecommunications company, which has a near monopoly on the nation's
landline telephone services. According to a 2010 slideshow prepared by a
Setad subsidiary company, Setad that year held 38 percent of a consortium
called Tose'e Etemad Mobin Co. A year earlier, the consortium had
acquired 50 percent plus one share of Telecommunication Co of Iran (TCI),
for $7.8 billion. The buyers got favorable terms: The slideshow says the
winning consortium - whose largest stakeholder was a company controlled
by the Revolutionary Guards - was required to put down 20 percent and had
eight years to pay the rest." http://t.uani.com/1aQVmfh
Karl Vick in TIME:
"But even if Netanyahu has worn out his welcome, some of the West's
leading experts on nuclear proliferation are making much the same case,
and Israel's most effective media advocacy organization has been lining
them up for conference calls with journalists for weeks. The Israel
Project is a non-profit funded by private sources but committed to
putting forward the position of the Israeli government. And on Oct. 28,
it found a friend in Olli Heinonen, a former deputy director of the UN's
International Atomic Energy Agency, now at Harvard. Heinonen, who speaks
with a Finnish accent and a bureaucrat's caution, was blunt on the danger
posed by the stockpiles of uranium Iran has enriched beyond the 3 percent
'low enrichment' required to fuel a nuclear reactor to the 20 percent
'medium' level ostensibly necessary for research. 'Medium' has a half-way
sound but because so much of the heavy lifting in the nuclear cycle
precedes the spinning of centrifuges, 20 percent actually is most of the
way to the 'heavily enriched' 90 percent level required to fuel a nuclear
weapon. 'If you already have 20 percent enriched uranium, actually you
have done 90 percent of your work,' Heinonen said. He adds that the same
formulations apply to uranium technically dubbed low-enriched, 'which is
why I understand the concerns of Prime Minister Netanyahu.' Iran has
almost 7 metric tons of that material, and 'you have done something like
60 percent of the effort you have to do to produce weapons grade
uranium.' Why all this matters was explained in another Israel Project
conference call to international reporters on Nov. 7. David
Albright, an American former IAEA inspector, runs the Institute for
Science and International Security, the Washington think tank that does
the most-quoted independent research on Iran's nuclear program. Recently,
it estimated how long Iran would need to do what much of the world most
fears - cast aside its consistent claims that its nuclear program is
meant for peaceful means, and make a dash for a bomb. The amount of time
it needs, Albright noted, depends on how much enriched uranium it has on
hand, and how many centrifuges it has available to spin the uranium to
higher, more dangerous levels. With current stores and no 'cap' imposed
by an interim agreement on the number of centrifuges it could use, Tehran
might create a bomb in as little as a month, the ISIS study concluded.
That month becomes the window for the outside world - including IAEA
inspectors, if Iran hasn't kicked them out by then - to detect what's
going on, and mount a response, such as the 'military option' that
President Obama continues to say is 'on the table.' Albright said Iran's
leadership team on the nuclear issue, President Hassan Rouhani and
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, 'is very good on making promises -
enticements - but has not been so good about delivering,' Albright told
the reporters on the Nov. 7 call. 'And it happened in '05 the same way:
Lots of promises, but in the end Iran wants a centrifuge program that is
essentially uncapped. They'll trade that for some transparency, but
it's never viewed as enough ... and so you never get a settlement.' Still,
Tehran did manage to produce a bit of encouraging news on Monday. The two
sides parted ways in Geneva with another key sticking point unresolved
- the future of the heavy water reactor under construction at Arak,
which presents Iran with a possible second route to a bomb. But Tehran
did reach an agreement with the IAEA to give UN inspectors 'managed
access' to the plant, as well as to a uranium mine.' http://t.uani.com/1a0CE2T
Dennis Ross in
TNR: "And here is the rub with the Israelis and
others in the Middle East: They fear that the limited relaxation of
sanctions will quickly erode the sanctions regime. Notwithstanding our
claims that the sanctions architecture will remain in place, there is a
widespread belief in the Israeli security establishment that many
governments and their private sectors will see an opening and will be
convinced that they can and will be able to start doing business again.
As they start approaching the Iranians, the Iranians will see that the
sanctions are going to fray and they simply need to hang tough and
concede no more. From the Israeli standpoint, the first step will thus be
the last one and the Iranian program, even if capped, will be at such a
high threshold that Iran will have a break-out capability. They see no reason
to give up our leverage now and let the Iranians off the hook. For its
part, the Administration believes it is not doing so. It sees the Iranian
economic needs remaining great, the limited relaxation can buy Rouhani
more political space and the authority to negotiate more-something he
must do if Iran is to recover economically at a time when the
expectations are again growing among the Iranian public. To dash those
expectations won't just weaken Rouhani but ultimately threaten the regime
itself-or so the Administration seems to think. As such, it sees the
limited agreement as neither weakening our negotiating position nor the
sanctions architecture. Is it possible to bridge this divide in a way
that also serves the aim of rolling the Iranian nuclear program back? I
believe so. First, we must be clear that the easing of sanctions will, in
fact, be limited and will not affect our enforcement of existing
sanctions and those who try to evade them. We will continue to vigorously
pursue all loopholes and efforts to work around sanctions. This also
means that we must continue to emphasize the reputational costs to any
businesses that seek to resume commerce directly or indirectly with Iran.
Second, while the Administration has asked Congress to hold back on adopting
new sanctions for now so as not to undercut Rouhani, I think we must also
recognize the importance of signaling the Iranians and everyone else that
there will be an intensification of sanctions if the diplomacy fails to
produce an end-game agreement. Rouhani is president precisely because of
the high cost of sanctions. There should be no illusions about what
happens if diplomacy fails to significantly roll back the Iranian nuclear
program. We don't do Rouhani any favors if the appearance takes hold that
there will be no more sanctions-even if there are no more agreements.
From that standpoint, why not accept an approach in which the Congress
adopts the next wave of sanctions but agree that they will not be
implemented until the end of the six month period of the first step
agreement or a clear break down of diplomacy. Third, at least with our
friends who are concerned about what they perceive as our eagerness for
any deal with the Iranians-and this perception is held even more deeply
among our Arab friends than the Israelis-we should be clearer about what
we mean by rolling-back the Iranian nuclear program. I understand not
wanting to negotiate among ourselves and not giving away bottom lines,
but one reason the first step deal seems so alarming to the Israelis and
others is they don't know what we mean by a bad deal at the end of the
day. They seem to think that we are so eager to avoid the use of force,
given public opinion, that we will accept anything. We need to let others
know, at least privately, that prevention remains the objective and has
always meant that if diplomacy fails, force is the likely result. In
addition, we should also make clear that we have a number of absolute
requirements for any nuclear end-state agreement: Iran must dramatically
reduce the number of centrifuges, ship out essentially all of its
enriched uranium and, at a minimum, convert its heavy water plant into a
light water reactor. In short, we must convey more clearly that we know
where we are going on the nuclear issue with Iran. The benefit of
leveling in this fashion is that it puts not only the Iranians on notice
but also reassures our friends in the area. That may be especially
important at a time when the Administration needs to send a message other
than that it is lessening our interests and stakes in the region and has
bigger fish to fry elsewhere in the world." http://t.uani.com/1fyILg5
Babak
Dehghanpisheh in Reuters: "The Islamic Republic's
34-year rule has hurt many religious and political groups in Iran, but
one community has borne an especially heavy burden: the Baha'is, a
religious minority viewed as heretics by some Muslims. Dozens of Baha'is
were killed or jailed in the years immediately following the Islamic
revolution in 1979. Billions of dollars worth of land, houses, shops and
other Baha'i belongings were seized in subsequent years by various
Iranian organizations, including Setad, the organization overseen by
Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The United Nations office
of the Baha'i International Community, a non-governmental organization,
estimates that more than 2,000 homes, shops, orchards and other
properties were seized from its members in Iran up to 2003, the most
recent figure available. The property was then worth about $10 billion.
'It's really one of the most obvious cases of state persecution,' Heiner
Bielefeldt, the UN Special Rapporteur on freedom of religion or belief,
said about the treatment of Baha'is in Iran at a United Nations
conference in Geneva this year. 'It's basically state persecution,
systematic and covering all areas of state activities, the various
systems from family law provisions to schooling, education, security.'
One reason clerics in Iran have targeted the group with such zeal is the
fact devout Muslims see the Baha'i faith as heresy and an insult to the
teachings of Islam. The religion started in 1844 in the southern city of
Shiraz when a man named Bab announced the coming of a messenger of God.
In 1863, one of Bab's followers named Baha'ullah declared himself to be
the messenger and began preaching a message of unity among faiths. His
followers were attacked and he spent years in exile, dying in the city of
Acre, in what was then Palestine, in 1892. During most of the 20th
century, the monarchs ruling Iran tolerated Baha'is, though there were
periodic arrests and attacks against members of the community, according
to historians. After the Islamic revolution, the group was targeted
again. While Jews and Christians were recognized as religious minorities
in the new constitution, Baha'is were not. Hundreds of Baha'is were
expelled from universities or had their businesses attacked or their
properties confiscated, members of the community say... The Baha'i
International Community estimates there are 300,000 Baha'is left in Iran.
In late July, Khamenei issued an edict stating that Iranians should avoid
all dealings with Baha'is, according to Iran's Tasnim news agency." http://t.uani.com/1i1XmTt
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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