Thursday, November 7, 2013

Eye on Iran: Powers Seek 'First-Step' Nuclear Deal with Iran in Geneva Talks







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Reuters:
"World powers will seek to hammer out a breakthrough deal with Iran to start resolving a decade-old dispute over its nuclear program in two-day talks that begin on Thursday, although both sides say an agreement is far from certain. The United States and its allies say they are encouraged by Tehran's shift to friendlier rhetoric after years of hostility since the June election of President Hassan Rouhani, who has pledged to repair ties with the West and win sanctions relief. But they stress Iran needs to back its words with action and take concrete steps to scale back its atomic work, which they suspect has covert military aims, a charge Tehran denies. 'What we're looking for is a first phase, a first step, an initial understanding that stops Iran's nuclear program from moving forward and rolls it back for the first time in decades,' a senior U.S. official told reporters on the eve of the talks. That would help buy time needed for Iran and the six powers - the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany - to reach a broader diplomatic settlement in a dispute that could otherwise plunge the Middle East into a new war. The six nations want Iran to suspend its most sensitive uranium enrichment efforts, reduce its stockpile of such material and diminish its capacity to produce it in the future." http://t.uani.com/1dPMjtN

NYT: "Negotiators from Iran and six world powers convened on Thursday as American officials signaled that the United States is prepared to offer Iran limited relief from economic sanctions if Tehran agrees to halt its nuclear program and reverse part of it. Catherine Ashton, the foreign policy chief of the European Union, met Thursday morning with Mohammad Javed Zarif, the Iranian foreign minister, to discuss the arrangements for the first day of talks. Mr. Zarif touted the possibility of a breakthrough in remarks to reporters, perhaps calculating that it might encourage Western concessions. 'If everyone tries their best, we may have one,' he said. 'We expect serious negotiations. It's possible,' he said. A senior Obama administration was somewhat more cautious in comments on Wednesday night, but also suggested that an initial understanding might be within reach. 'I do see the potential for the outlines of a first step,' the official said. 'I do think it can be written on a piece of paper, probably more than one.' The formal talks, which are to last two days, began at 11:20 a.m. with Mr. Zarif leading the Iranian delegation." http://t.uani.com/HCf5mB

WashPost: "The Obama administration is hoping to rapidly secure a deal with Iran that would temporarily freeze the country's nuclear program and buy time for diplomats to try to hammer out a more comprehensive agreement restricting Tehran's future ability to seek atomic weapons, U.S. officials said Wednesday... The proposed freeze, if accepted, would be the first stage in a multiple-step process that could culminate in an agreement early next year on permanent limits to Iran's ability to produce the components of a nuclear bomb, the U.S. official said. Whether Iran would agree to the concessions will be a key topic during talks set to begin Thursday in Geneva. 'What we're looking for now is a first phase, a first step, an initial understanding that stops Iran's nuclear program from moving forward for the first time in decades, and that potentially rolls part of it back,' said the U.S. official in a briefing to journalists on the eve of the talks. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, said the United States and its allies were looking to 'put time on the clock' by ensuring that Iran's nuclear program does not advance while the negotiations are going on. The White House is under pressure to show substantial progress during this week's talks, as skeptics in Congress have threatened to impose harsh new financial sanctions on Iran even as the negotiations are under way. Administration officials met with key lawmakers last week urging them to delay any decisions on new sanctions until the first of the year. The U.S. official in Geneva said an Iranian agreement to freeze its nuclear program would result in 'limited, targeted and reversible' relief on some economic sanctions, for a limited period of perhaps six months. The easing of sanctions would be reversed if Iran failed to honor its commitments, or if there was no progress in the effort to achieve a broader nuclear agreement. The toughest sanctions affecting Iran's banking sector and oil exports would not be lifted until the final stage of the process, Western officials said." http://t.uani.com/1925hYS
Election Repression ToolkitNuclear Program

Reuters: "Iran and six world powers are making progress in talks aimed at ending a decade-long nuclear stand-off between Tehran and the West, but the discussions are 'tough', Iran's foreign minister said on Thursday. Mohammad Javad Zarif made the comment to Reuters after a first session in the two-day negotiations in Geneva... 'The talks went well,' Zarif told Reuters after the morning session between Iran, the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China. 'I'm hopeful that we can move forward. We are making progress, but it's tough,' he said. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said he hoped a deal could be struck but that the sides remained far apart. 'The differences are widespread and deep. This is undeniable. And continuing the negotiations will not be an easy task, but this does not cause us to lose hope,' he said, adding he was still hopeful a 'final understanding' could be reached. A spokesman for European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who is coordinating talks with Iran on behalf of the powers, described the morning session as 'good' but declined to give details." http://t.uani.com/1fm55tl

WSJ: "The White House heralded President Barack Obama's phone call with Iranian counterpart Hasan Rouhani earlier this fall as a foreign-policy milestone born of a rush of last-minute diplomacy. But the historic conversation was more intricately choreographed than previously disclosed. Top National Security Council officials began planting the seeds for such an exchange months earlier-holding a series of secret meetings and telephone calls and convening an assortment of Arab monarchs, Iranian exiles and former U.S. diplomats to clandestinely ferry messages between Washington and Tehran, according to current and former U.S., Middle Eastern and European officials briefed on the effort. Mr. Obama had empowered the administration's top Iran specialist, Puneet Talwar, for some time to have direct meetings and phone conversations with Iranian Foreign Ministry officials, those people say. Some of the contacts took place in Oman's ancient capital, Muscat, U.S. and Middle Eastern officials say, which sits less than 200 miles across the Gulf's azure waters from the Iranian coastline... The White House also reached out to Tehran through other senior Obama aides, including National Security Adviser Susan Rice, according to Iranian and U.S. officials briefed on the exchanges. At Mr. Obama's direction, Ms. Rice had nurtured ties with her Iranian counterpart while serving from 2009-2013 as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, according to U.S. and Iranian officials, rekindling those connections for the September phone call between the Iranian and American leaders. The intricate communications network helped propel the recent steps toward U.S.-Iran rapprochement." http://t.uani.com/16J5seY

AFP: "Israel urged world powers on Wednesday to reject what it said was an Iranian offer to partly cut back its nuclear programme in return for an easing of Western sanctions. 'Israel in the last few hours has learned that a proposal will be brought before the P5+1 in Geneva in which Iran will cease all enrichment at 20 percent and slow down work on the heavy water reactor in Arak, and will receive in return the easing of sanctions,' an official told AFP on condition of anonymity. 'Israel thinks this is a bad deal and will oppose it strongly,' the official said... 'Israel's assessment is that the P5+1 is in a position of strength. The sanctions are hurting Iran, Iran is feeling the pressure and the P5+1 has the capability to compel Iran to end all enrichment and to stop construction of the facility in Arak,' the Israeli official said." http://t.uani.com/1bdndkM

CNN: "Iran appears keen to progress swiftly toward a deal reining back its nuclear program in return for relief from international sanctions that have crippled its economy, a senior U.S. administration official said Wednesday. She was speaking on the eve of a fresh round of talks scheduled for Thursday and Friday in Geneva between the five permanent -- and nuclear-armed -- members of the U.N. Security Council, along with Germany and Iran. 'For the first time, we believe Iran is ready to move this process forward quickly. For the first time, we're not seeing them just use this as a way of buying time,' the senior U.S. administration official told journalists in a background briefing." http://t.uani.com/1bdHfNG

BBC: "Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistani nuclear weapons projects, and believes it could obtain atomic bombs at will, a variety of sources have told BBC Newsnight. While the kingdom's quest has often been set in the context of countering Iran's atomic programme, it is now possible that the Saudis might be able to deploy such devices more quickly than the Islamic republic... Since 2009, when King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia warned visiting US special envoy to the Middle East Dennis Ross that if Iran crossed the threshold, 'we will get nuclear weapons', the kingdom has sent the Americans numerous signals of its intentions. Gary Samore, until March 2013 President Barack Obama's counter-proliferation adviser, has told Newsnight: 'I do think that the Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan.'" http://t.uani.com/1cGbS3a

Sanctions

Daily Beast: "On the eve of new nuclear negotiations with Iran, the top Republican senator on the Foreign Relations Committee is considering legislation that would prevent President Obama from loosening sanctions on the Tehran regime. 'We've crafted an amendment to freeze the administration in and make it so they are unable to reduce the sanctions unless certain things occur,' Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) told The Daily Beast in an interview Wednesday. 'They have the ability now to waive sanctions. But we're very concerned that in their desire to make any deal that they may in fact do something that is very bad for our country.' Corker said that his new legislative language would freeze the administration's ability to waive sanctions currently in place until or unless Iran agrees to large concessions on its nuclear and missile programs... Under Corker's plan the Obama administration would be barred from using the waivers that are currently on the books to create limited exemptions to the sanctions program unless Iran agrees to stop all enrichment and reprocessing and adhere to U.N. Security Council Resolutions now in place. For the Iranians to comply with those terms they would need to suspend all work on their heavy water reactor at Arak, suspend all work and testing on ballistic missiles, and come clean with the IAEA on all military dimensions of their nuclear program. 'This would keep an interim deal from happening unless there is actual tangible changes that take place,' Corker said." http://t.uani.com/1b9zmuh

CNN: "As long as Iran continues to enrich uranium the United States should not suspend its Iran sanctions, Democratic Senator Robert Menendez told CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Wednesday... 'What I do not understand is a negotiating posture in which we suspend our actions, we give them sanctions relief on existing sanctions, yet they continue to be able to enrich, to be able to have more sophisticated centrifuges,' Menendez said... 'The only reason we're in these negotiations is because of the sanctions that I and others have offered,' Menendez said, adding that he was trying to avoid military conflict. 'Why is it impossible to simply accept, get Iran to accept, that it suspend?' he asked. 'It's not rolling back its 20 percent, or 3.5 percent enrichment. It's not reducing its centrifuges. Why can you not simply suspend in order to have the negotiation that you want? That would be a good-faith effort.' ... Menendez indicated he hadn't seen anything concrete being discussed. 'I haven't heard anything substantive on the table,' he said. 'All I've heard is that the tone and tenor, and the directness, has been different.'" http://t.uani.com/1hlY7cb

Bloomberg: "Iran's new government enters nuclear negotiations today with limited economic leverage, seeking relief from oil sanctions that have squeezed as much as $5 billion a month from its revenues as the world has found other suppliers. Since the U.S. and the European Union imposed sanctions on Iran's oil sales in July 2012 as punishment for illicit nuclear work, higher production in the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Iraq has offset the loss of more than 1 million barrels a day in Iranian exports. As U.S. consumers pay $3.23 a gallon for gasoline, almost a dime less than when sanctions took effect, Iran's economy will contract 1.5 percent this year after shrinking 1.9 percent in 2012, according to International Monetary Fund estimates. 'Right now, Iran needs to sell its oil far more than the rest of the world needs to buy it,' Trevor Houser, a partner at the Rhodium Group LLC, a New York-based economic research firm, said in an interview. 'If sanctions were suddenly lifted, I could see a sharp drop in global oil prices, but I think it's highly unlikely that we're going to see sanctions removed that quickly. Sanctions are much harder to remove than to enact.'" http://t.uani.com/1eoKw1v

Reuters: "Iran is offering free delivery of crude to major client India, industry sources said, signalling that tough Western sanctions which have slashed its exports in half are driving Tehran to increasingly desperate measures to keep oil flowing... Despite the near halt of petrodollar payments, Iran is resorting to measures such as offering deep discounts on oil and now free delivery to India, according to sources who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. Iran's remaining Indian clients - Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, Essar Oil and Indian Oil Corp - could save freight of 70 cents to $1 a barrel on purchases from Iran, said one of the sources. Tehran is also offering Indian buyers a discount on price if refiners raise purchases, the sources said. 'The more you buy, the more incentives you get. If a refiner buys 30 million barrels of Iranian oil in a year then the discount translates to 25 cents per barrel,' this source added. Iran already offers 90 days' credit on crude sales to Indian refiners while most other producers stick to 30 days' credit. While any discount would be attractive as India tries to curb an oil import bill that was around $170 billion in 2012/13, it likely would be wary of raising imports just prior to a review of its waiver from U.S. sanctions. India's six-month exemption comes up for renewal in early December, shortly after top U.S. energy diplomat Carlos Pascual's current visit to New Delhi... In India, there is about $5.3 billion of Iranian oil money held up by the sanctions. Of the total, about $1.8 billion is with the oil companies who have bought crude from Iran and the remainder is held with a bank, sources said. In South Korea, total Iranian money stuck in bank accounts is more than $5 billion, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said. In Japan, a similar amount of Iranian oil money has been held up since the beginning of the year, according to sources." http://t.uani.com/HIFnUF

Reuters: "Deutsche Boerse agreed on Thursday to pay $152 million to settle allegations by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) that the company's Clearstream unit may have violated U.S. economic sanctions tied to Iran. The German exchange operator received an offer from the United States in October after OFAC closed the investigation." http://t.uani.com/HCbrsR

Terrorism

USA TODAY: "U.S.-designated terror group Hezbollah is expanding networks and deployment of fighters from Lebanon to the entire Middle East as part of its deepening alliance with Iran, say analysts. The latest sign comes in Syria, where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has justified intervention as a battle he says is part of a region-wide war of Sunni Muslims against Shiite Muslims... In addition, in 2011 Bahrain filed a report with the U.N. Secretary General alleging that Shiite Bahraini opposition members who staged an uprising against the Sunni-ruled government were being trained in Hezbollah camps in Lebanon and Iran... The group provided money, training and expertise in explosives to Hamas, the terrorist group that controls Gaza, during the Palestinian Intifada in 2000, Blanford says. In the Iraq War, Hezbollah trained Shiite paramilitary squads, such as Kataeb Hezbollah and Assayib Ahl al Haqq, at the request of Iran, he said. 'If Hezbollah today plays a regional role, it is at the behest of Iran, and it is not a role it aspires to,' said Levitt. Shehadi says Hezbollah is now facing problems aligning its role as a Lebanese political party with the goals of its Iranian backers, 'but it is willing to sacrifice its constituency to satisfy Iranian interests,' he said. 'It is feeding sheep to the slaughter.'" http://t.uani.com/1fm3YcS

Human Rights

AP: "Iranian Nobel Peace laureate Shirin Ebadi strongly criticized the human rights record of President Hassan Rouhani, citing a dramatic increase in executions since he took office this year and accusing the government of lying about the release of political prisoners. She also pointed to spreading support for a hunger strike by human rights lawyer Abdolfattah Soltani and three others in a Tehran prison to protest inadequate medical care, which was joined Monday by about 80 prisoners at another prison west of the capital. Ebadi, a U.S.-based human rights lawyer who since 2009 has lived outside Iran in self-exile, said in an interview Tuesday with The Associated Press that Rouhani may have the reputation of a moderate reformer, but so far 'we get bad signals' from the new government when it comes to human rights... In the last 10 days, 40 people have been executed, including some political prisoners, Ebadi said, and since Rouhani was inaugurated in August, the number of executions has doubled compared with a year ago. Ebadi said government propaganda claims that dozens of political prisoners have been released. 'This is a big lie,' she said. 'Twelve or thirteen people have been released but these are people who had served their time.'" http://t.uani.com/1bdlGv8

ICHRI: "Since President Hassan Rouhani took office this August, Iran has executed more than 200 people. This sharp increase in the number of executions, specifically among drug traffickers and Kurdish activists, has created concern among civil society that extremist groups in the Iranian Judiciary and security apparatus have adopted this violent approach to show that the status quo remains. Iran has hanged 40 people over the past ten days. On November 3 and 4 alone, authorities executed 12 people in different cities in Iran. In addition, Iranian Judiciary officials have failed to follow through on their announcement in September to release more than 80 prisoners of conscience during the recent religious holidays. They have only released 42 prisoners of conscience, many of them having completed or being near completion of their prison terms. Hundreds of prisoners of conscience remain behind bars. Three political dissidents and leaders of the post-2009 protests, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Zahra Rahnavard, will mark 1000 days under house arrest on November 10, 2013." http://t.uani.com/189QGLs

ANF: "Thousands gathered in the district of Özalp in Van Province in order to protest the government of Iran following another execution of a Kurdish political prisoner this morning in Seqiz Prison. Şerko Maarfi, who was thirty-four years old, had been in prison since 2007 when he was sentenced to death for agitating against the regime and being an 'enemy of god.' The execution was the third execution of a Kurdish political prisoner by the Iranian State in the past ten days... Aysel Tuğluk, a BDP MP from Van, spoke at the protest, saying: 'Whether it be for political reasons or for smuggling, Iran has executed 76 Kurds this year.'" http://t.uani.com/1hPtyt1

ICHRI: "A human rights activist with knowledge of the details of the Monday morning execution of Shirkoo Moarefi, a Kurdish political prisoner, told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran that Moarefi did not know he was to be executed until his final moments... Ahmad Saeed Sheikhi, one of [his] lawyers... confirmed news of his execution and told [ICHRI], 'I learned about my client's execution from news websites. I tried to contact his family many times and I was finally able to talk to a family member at 4:00 p.m., who confirmed the news and told me that the family were on their way to collect the body.' Authorities arrested Shirkoo Moarefi, a 33-year-old Kurdish political and civil activist from Baneh, on the Iran-Iraq border while he was attempting to return to Iran from Iraqi Kurdistan in 2008. He was sentenced to death on the charge of 'moharebeh' (enmity with God), 'membership in Komalah Party,' and 'acting against national security.'" http://t.uani.com/1bdwBGw

IHR: "Five prisoners were hanged in the prison of Jiroft (Kerman province, southeastern Iran) today, reported the Iranian State Broadcasting. The prisoners who were not identified by name were all convicted of drug related charges.  Yesterday 5 other prisoners were executed in the province of Kerman. According to the official Iranian sources at least 20 people have been executed in the last three days in Iran." http://t.uani.com/1b9tNfE

Domestic Politics

Vocativ: "Stumble into a crowd chanting 'death to the dictator' in Iran, and it's safe to assume you're at a good ole' fashion American flag burning. Or maybe some sort of art competition. But a video uploaded to YouTube yesterday shows a group of students at Tehran University chanting 'death to the dictator,' and they're not talking about Uncle Sam Satan; they're referring to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader. Earlier in the video, the crowd also booed a senior member of the Basij, Iran's volunteer state militia. The encounter is making waves in the country's limited social mediasphere, and it's easy to see why. The incident appears to have occurred on Nov. 4, a day that marked the 34th anniversary of when protesters stormed the American Embassy in Tehran." http://t.uani.com/17eN8ga

Reuters: "Sunni Islamist Baluch militants claimed responsibility for killing an Iranian public prosecutor in revenge for a decision to hang 16 prisoners following a cross-border attack by the group two weeks ago... Jaish ul-Adl militants said they killed Nouri in revenge for the hanging of 16 prisoners on October 26 ordered by judiciary officials in retaliation for an attack in which the radical Sunni group killed 14 Iranian border guards a day before... 'After the execution of 16 innocent young Baluch, its fighters took the decision to eliminate one of the judicial authorities in Baluchistan to avenge their deaths.'" http://t.uani.com/1eoyfdB

Foreign Affairs

Reuters: "Iran's Foreign Minister ended a two-day visit to France on Wednesday, a country he said was the most intransigent among the six world powers - including the United States - that he will face at nuclear talks this week... 'We have a new world. We need a different approach, all of us, to global affairs,' Zarif told Reuters TV, smiling in front of dozens of cameras before giving a speech to the general assembly of the U.N. cultural agency UNESCO. 'Iran is ready to play that new role in that different international environment,' he said... While President Francois Hollande was the first Western leader to meet President Hassan Rouhani in September, the tone from Paris since has been more prudent than others in the 'P5+1' ... as Tehran pressed ahead with a diplomatic charm offensive that it hopes will lead to an easing of sanctions. 'Iran must respond in a concrete and verifiable way to the concerns of the international community, because negotiations cannot be indefinite,' Roman Nadal, a foreign ministry official said after Zarif met with his French counterpart Laurent Fabius, the first time an Iranian foreign minister has been received in Paris for four years." http://t.uani.com/1gtJmT7

AP: "Bahrain's flagship carrier Gulf Air says it will resume routes to Iran more than two years after suspending flights over claims that Tehran's leaders support a Shiite-led uprising in the Gulf kingdom. Next month's restoration of air service is a rare thaw in relations. Air links with Iran were cut after the beginning of the protests in February 2011 by Bahrain's Shiite majority seeking a greater political voice in the Sunni-ruled nation. Shiite-power Iran has lauded the ongoing demonstrations, but denies giving any direct assistance. The independent newspaper Al Wasat reported Thursday that flights will resume Dec. 15 to the eastern Iranian city of Mashhad, which has an important Shiite shrine. Gulf Air confirmed the report." http://t.uani.com/16JcQXG
Opinion & Analysis

Ray Takeyh in WashPost: "On the surface, the Islamic Republic of Iran is an unsavory authoritarian state unworthy of support, much less acclaim. A regime that is deeply embedded in Syria's civil war and has embraced terrorism as an instrument of statecraft would seemingly be at a disadvantage in presenting its case to the international community. Yet Iran has had some success imposing its narrative on the negotiations Iranian officials and Western nations are conducting about its nuclear program. The theocratic state demands that its 'right to enrich' be recognized upfront and that its past nuclear infractions be forgiven. The great powers' diplomacy will be judged not by clever formulations they devise to accommodate Iran's 'red lines' but by their ability to veer Tehran away from its maximalist positions. President Hassan Rouhani has managed to inculcate the notion that he is under pressure from hard-liners at home and that a failure by the great powers to invest in his presidency would end Iran's moderate interlude. The implication: Time is of the essence, and the West should not miss an opportunity to deal with pragmatists who seek a breakthrough on Iranian arms control. But a more careful examination reveals that the Islamic Republic has reached an internal consensus. It is ruled today by a national unity government. The factionalism that has historically bedeviled the theocracy has, for now, been set aside. For Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the most important objective is the survival of the regime and preservation of its ideological character. As an astute student of history, Khamenei senses that disunity among the elites can feed popular discontent and imperil the regime. The fraudulent presidential election of 2009 caused not only a legitimacy crisis but also a fracture among the regime's elite. By conceding to Rouhani's election, Khamenei has managed to restore a measure of accountability to the system and has drawn some of his disgruntled cadre back to the fold. Given such domestic calculations, Rouhani's political fortunes are not necessarily contingent on the success of his arms-control policy. Khamenei clearly hopes that his president can ease Iran's economic distress, but the notion that Rouhani will be displaced unless he can quickly obtain concessions from the West is spurious. If their diplomatic efforts are to succeed, Western powers would be wise to reject the nuclear alarmism that often surrounds this issue. The standard U.S. government assessment is that Iran is still a year away from getting the bomb. This year includes the time required to enrich uranium to weapons-grade and to assemble a nuclear device. But this timeline requires Iran to divert material from safeguarded facilities, an action that would quickly be detected by the International Atomic Energy Agency and that probably would provoke an international reaction. Accordingly, there is nothing magical about 2014. Time is on the side of the United States, not Iran - where economic conditions are worsening by the day. Another issue that has paradoxically redounded to U.S. advantage was Rouhani's trip to the U.N. General Assembly. Both U.S. and Iranian officials unwisely raised expectations in September and fed a media narrative of an imminent historic breakthrough between two old nemeses. Such raised expectations work to the disadvantage of Iran rather than the United States. Suddenly, the hard-pressed Iranian public has come to expect imminent financial relief. Should the negotiations not yield an accord in a timely manner, it is Khamenei, not President Obama, who would face a popular backlash. A disenfranchised and dispossessed population is an explosive political problem for Khamenei. The Western powers should not be afraid to suspend negotiations or walk away, should the Iranians prove intransigent. Ironically, stalemated negotiations are likely to pressure Iran into offering more concessions. During the past decade, two U.S. administrations have confounded their critics by crafting a formidable sanctions architecture and adroitly managing an unruly alliance system. It is important to have a proper estimation of the Islamic Republic - a second-rate power with a third-rate nuclear program. Khamenei presides over a government that is despised by its constituents and distrusted by its neighbors. U.S. sanctions policy has offered its diplomats indispensable leverage. Washington is in a position to demand the most stringent of nuclear accords and should pay scant attention to Iran's oft-proclaimed red lines. An agreement that not only buys time but also prevents Iran from permanently reconstituting its nuclear weapons ambitions is within grasp. With patience and firmness, a great diplomatic victory can still be claimed." http://t.uani.com/1cG7PUD


David Ignatius in WashPost: "As the Obama administration moves into a decisive stage of nuclear negotiations with Iran, officials are considering a two-step process that would begin with a freeze and modest rollback of Iranian enrichment of uranium, matched by a limited easing of U.S.-led economic sanctions on Tehran. Officials hope this first phase would be followed later by a comprehensive agreement that would lift all sanctions in return for a verifiable halt in Iranian nuclear weapons capability. This second phase is many months down the road, but the shape of a possible initial phase has likely already been discussed with U.S. negotiating partners in the 'P5+1' group (Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany) and may be shared with the Iranians on Thursday in Geneva... Administration officials see their goal, in the first phase, as stopping the clock - and even adding a little more time. The aim is to relieve time pressures on both sides enough and provide sufficient additional transparency to allow the extended bargaining. As in any negotiation, each side wants maximum benefit at minimum cost. Economists speak of a 'price search' to discover an equilibrium point at which a market 'clears' and a deal is struck. But sometimes the lines never cross: The demands of one side are greater than what the other is willing to pay - and an otherwise doable deal is never reached... What has been notable in recent weeks, however, has been the convergence toward the elements of possible compromise. The United States' idea is that both sides would temporarily turn down their 'spigots' of pressure. The West might allow Iran access to a limited portion of its oil revenue that has been frozen by sanctions. Iranian sources have told me Iran might respond by converting its existing stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium to fuel rods or plates, and capping its stockpile of 3.5 percent enriched uranium. Each side could later reopen these spigots - of Western sanctions and Iranian enrichment - if interim negotiations don't produce a final agreement. If the administration's 'freeze and reverse' approach is adopted, the crucial issue would be Iran's array of centrifuges and other enrichment technology. Israeli experts have insisted that Iran must show it doesn't have 'breakout' capability by mothballing centrifuges (especially the newer, more efficient models) and by refraining from bringing online a planned heavy-water nuclear reactor at Arak. Otherwise, say the Israelis, the Iranians could continue to creep closer to breakout capability under the cover of negotiations. Iranian and American experts have both described over the past few months the same framework for a final deal - a verifiable set of procedures that reassures the West that Iran couldn't dash to make a bomb using its existing centrifuges or any covert facilities. This would mean a level of intrusive inspection that would be hard for the Iranians to accept, but Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told me in September that Tehran would consider such transparency measures... Do the rewards of making a deal outweigh its costs? That's the calculus both sides will have to weigh for the next few months. It's a makeable putt, as golfers like to say, but far from a sure thing." http://t.uani.com/1gtM6js

UANI Advisory Board Member Irwin Cotler in Times of Israel: "The resumption of Iranian nuclear negotiations in Geneva this week has been accompanied by raised expectations for a prospective agreement. Indeed, a joint statement issued by the Iranian Foreign Minister and the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs called the first round of talks 'substantive and forward-looking,' while a U.S. official has described conversations with the Iranian delegation as 'intense, detailed, straightforward, candid'. Indeed, in a departure from past pronouncements, even the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) referred to its recent discussions with Iran as 'very productive,' the whole underpinning an atmosphere of optimism. Yet, amidst this hope there remains cause for concern given the Iranian regime's longstanding '3-D' negotiating strategy: denial, deception, and delay. While the change in Iranian leadership may be seen as a sign of progress, it should be recalled that newly-elected President Hassan Rouhani had himself boasted about this negotiating strategy in earlier negotiations, saying: 'While we were talking with the Europeans in Tehran, we were installing equipment in parts of the facility in Isfahan... In fact, by creating a calm environment, we were able to complete the work on Isfahan.' As such, in order that the optimism find expression in concrete advances promoting international peace and security - and the well-being of the Iranian people themselves - current negotiations should be grounded in the following foundational principles." http://t.uani.com/1923oLK

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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