Top Stories
Reuters: "World
powers will seek to hammer out a breakthrough deal with Iran to start
resolving a decade-old dispute over its nuclear program in two-day talks
that begin on Thursday, although both sides say an agreement is far from
certain. The United States and its allies say they are encouraged by
Tehran's shift to friendlier rhetoric after years of hostility since the
June election of President Hassan Rouhani, who has pledged to repair ties
with the West and win sanctions relief. But they stress Iran needs to back
its words with action and take concrete steps to scale back its atomic
work, which they suspect has covert military aims, a charge Tehran
denies. 'What we're looking for is a first phase, a first step, an
initial understanding that stops Iran's nuclear program from moving
forward and rolls it back for the first time in decades,' a senior U.S.
official told reporters on the eve of the talks. That would help buy time
needed for Iran and the six powers - the United States, Russia, China,
France, Britain and Germany - to reach a broader diplomatic settlement in
a dispute that could otherwise plunge the Middle East into a new war. The
six nations want Iran to suspend its most sensitive uranium enrichment
efforts, reduce its stockpile of such material and diminish its capacity
to produce it in the future." http://t.uani.com/1dPMjtN
NYT:
"Negotiators from Iran and six world powers convened on Thursday as
American officials signaled that the United States is prepared to offer
Iran limited relief from economic sanctions if Tehran agrees to halt its
nuclear program and reverse part of it. Catherine Ashton, the foreign
policy chief of the European Union, met Thursday morning with Mohammad
Javed Zarif, the Iranian foreign minister, to discuss the arrangements
for the first day of talks. Mr. Zarif touted the possibility of a
breakthrough in remarks to reporters, perhaps calculating that it might
encourage Western concessions. 'If everyone tries their best, we may have
one,' he said. 'We expect serious negotiations. It's possible,' he said.
A senior Obama administration was somewhat more cautious in comments on
Wednesday night, but also suggested that an initial understanding might
be within reach. 'I do see the potential for the outlines of a first
step,' the official said. 'I do think it can be written on a piece of
paper, probably more than one.' The formal talks, which are to last two
days, began at 11:20 a.m. with Mr. Zarif leading the Iranian
delegation." http://t.uani.com/HCf5mB
WashPost:
"The Obama administration is hoping to rapidly secure a deal with
Iran that would temporarily freeze the country's nuclear program and buy
time for diplomats to try to hammer out a more comprehensive agreement
restricting Tehran's future ability to seek atomic weapons, U.S. officials
said Wednesday... The proposed freeze, if accepted, would be the first
stage in a multiple-step process that could culminate in an agreement
early next year on permanent limits to Iran's ability to produce the
components of a nuclear bomb, the U.S. official said. Whether Iran would
agree to the concessions will be a key topic during talks set to begin
Thursday in Geneva. 'What we're looking for now is a first phase, a first
step, an initial understanding that stops Iran's nuclear program from
moving forward for the first time in decades, and that potentially rolls
part of it back,' said the U.S. official in a briefing to journalists on
the eve of the talks. The official, who spoke on the condition of
anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, said the United States and its
allies were looking to 'put time on the clock' by ensuring that Iran's
nuclear program does not advance while the negotiations are going on. The
White House is under pressure to show substantial progress during this
week's talks, as skeptics in Congress have threatened to impose harsh new
financial sanctions on Iran even as the negotiations are under way.
Administration officials met with key lawmakers last week urging them to
delay any decisions on new sanctions until the first of the year. The
U.S. official in Geneva said an Iranian agreement to freeze its nuclear
program would result in 'limited, targeted and reversible' relief on some
economic sanctions, for a limited period of perhaps six months. The
easing of sanctions would be reversed if Iran failed to honor its
commitments, or if there was no progress in the effort to achieve a
broader nuclear agreement. The toughest sanctions affecting Iran's
banking sector and oil exports would not be lifted until the final stage
of the process, Western officials said." http://t.uani.com/1925hYS
Nuclear
Program
Reuters: "Iran and six world powers are making progress
in talks aimed at ending a decade-long nuclear stand-off between Tehran
and the West, but the discussions are 'tough', Iran's foreign minister
said on Thursday. Mohammad Javad Zarif made the comment to Reuters after
a first session in the two-day negotiations in Geneva... 'The talks went
well,' Zarif told Reuters after the morning session between Iran, the
United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China. 'I'm hopeful
that we can move forward. We are making progress, but it's tough,' he
said. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said he hoped a deal
could be struck but that the sides remained far apart. 'The differences
are widespread and deep. This is undeniable. And continuing the negotiations
will not be an easy task, but this does not cause us to lose hope,' he
said, adding he was still hopeful a 'final understanding' could be
reached. A spokesman for European Union foreign policy chief Catherine
Ashton, who is coordinating talks with Iran on behalf of the powers,
described the morning session as 'good' but declined to give
details." http://t.uani.com/1fm55tl
WSJ: "The White
House heralded President Barack Obama's phone call with Iranian
counterpart Hasan Rouhani earlier this fall as a foreign-policy milestone
born of a rush of last-minute diplomacy. But the historic conversation
was more intricately choreographed than previously disclosed. Top
National Security Council officials began planting the seeds for such an
exchange months earlier-holding a series of secret meetings and telephone
calls and convening an assortment of Arab monarchs, Iranian exiles and
former U.S. diplomats to clandestinely ferry messages between Washington
and Tehran, according to current and former U.S., Middle Eastern and
European officials briefed on the effort. Mr. Obama had empowered the
administration's top Iran specialist, Puneet Talwar, for some time to
have direct meetings and phone conversations with Iranian Foreign
Ministry officials, those people say. Some of the contacts took place in
Oman's ancient capital, Muscat, U.S. and Middle Eastern officials say,
which sits less than 200 miles across the Gulf's azure waters from the
Iranian coastline... The White House also reached out to Tehran through
other senior Obama aides, including National Security Adviser Susan Rice,
according to Iranian and U.S. officials briefed on the exchanges. At Mr.
Obama's direction, Ms. Rice had nurtured ties with her Iranian
counterpart while serving from 2009-2013 as U.S. ambassador to the United
Nations, according to U.S. and Iranian officials, rekindling those
connections for the September phone call between the Iranian and American
leaders. The intricate communications network helped propel the recent
steps toward U.S.-Iran rapprochement." http://t.uani.com/16J5seY
AFP: "Israel urged world powers on Wednesday to reject what it said
was an Iranian offer to partly cut back its nuclear programme in return
for an easing of Western sanctions. 'Israel in the last few hours has learned
that a proposal will be brought before the P5+1 in Geneva in which Iran
will cease all enrichment at 20 percent and slow down work on the heavy
water reactor in Arak, and will receive in return the easing of
sanctions,' an official told AFP on condition of anonymity. 'Israel
thinks this is a bad deal and will oppose it strongly,' the official
said... 'Israel's assessment is that the P5+1 is in a position of
strength. The sanctions are hurting Iran, Iran is feeling the pressure
and the P5+1 has the capability to compel Iran to end all enrichment and
to stop construction of the facility in Arak,' the Israeli official
said." http://t.uani.com/1bdndkM
CNN: "Iran appears keen to progress swiftly toward a deal reining
back its nuclear program in return for relief from international
sanctions that have crippled its economy, a senior U.S. administration
official said Wednesday. She was speaking on the eve of a fresh round of
talks scheduled for Thursday and Friday in Geneva between the five
permanent -- and nuclear-armed -- members of the U.N. Security Council,
along with Germany and Iran. 'For the first time, we believe Iran is
ready to move this process forward quickly. For the first time, we're not
seeing them just use this as a way of buying time,' the senior U.S.
administration official told journalists in a background briefing." http://t.uani.com/1bdHfNG
BBC: "Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistani nuclear weapons
projects, and believes it could obtain atomic bombs at will, a variety of
sources have told BBC Newsnight. While the kingdom's quest has often been
set in the context of countering Iran's atomic programme, it is now
possible that the Saudis might be able to deploy such devices more
quickly than the Islamic republic... Since 2009, when King Abdullah of
Saudi Arabia warned visiting US special envoy to the Middle East Dennis
Ross that if Iran crossed the threshold, 'we will get nuclear weapons',
the kingdom has sent the Americans numerous signals of its intentions.
Gary Samore, until March 2013 President Barack Obama's
counter-proliferation adviser, has told Newsnight: 'I do think that the
Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in
extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from
Pakistan.'" http://t.uani.com/1cGbS3a
Sanctions
Daily Beast: "On the eve of new nuclear negotiations with Iran, the
top Republican senator on the Foreign Relations Committee is considering
legislation that would prevent President Obama from loosening sanctions
on the Tehran regime. 'We've crafted an amendment to freeze the
administration in and make it so they are unable to reduce the sanctions
unless certain things occur,' Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) told The Daily Beast
in an interview Wednesday. 'They have the ability now to waive sanctions.
But we're very concerned that in their desire to make any deal that they
may in fact do something that is very bad for our country.' Corker said
that his new legislative language would freeze the administration's
ability to waive sanctions currently in place until or unless Iran agrees
to large concessions on its nuclear and missile programs... Under
Corker's plan the Obama administration would be barred from using the
waivers that are currently on the books to create limited exemptions to
the sanctions program unless Iran agrees to stop all enrichment and
reprocessing and adhere to U.N. Security Council Resolutions now in
place. For the Iranians to comply with those terms they would need to
suspend all work on their heavy water reactor at Arak, suspend all work
and testing on ballistic missiles, and come clean with the IAEA on all
military dimensions of their nuclear program. 'This would keep an interim
deal from happening unless there is actual tangible changes that take
place,' Corker said." http://t.uani.com/1b9zmuh
CNN: "As long as Iran continues to enrich uranium the United States
should not suspend its Iran sanctions, Democratic Senator Robert Menendez
told CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Wednesday... 'What I do not understand
is a negotiating posture in which we suspend our actions, we give them
sanctions relief on existing sanctions, yet they continue to be able to
enrich, to be able to have more sophisticated centrifuges,' Menendez
said... 'The only reason we're in these negotiations is because of the
sanctions that I and others have offered,' Menendez said, adding that he
was trying to avoid military conflict. 'Why is it impossible to simply
accept, get Iran to accept, that it suspend?' he asked. 'It's not rolling
back its 20 percent, or 3.5 percent enrichment. It's not reducing its
centrifuges. Why can you not simply suspend in order to have the
negotiation that you want? That would be a good-faith effort.' ...
Menendez indicated he hadn't seen anything concrete being discussed. 'I
haven't heard anything substantive on the table,' he said. 'All I've
heard is that the tone and tenor, and the directness, has been
different.'" http://t.uani.com/1hlY7cb
Bloomberg: "Iran's new government enters nuclear negotiations today
with limited economic leverage, seeking relief from oil sanctions that
have squeezed as much as $5 billion a month from its revenues as the
world has found other suppliers. Since the U.S. and the European Union
imposed sanctions on Iran's oil sales in July 2012 as punishment for
illicit nuclear work, higher production in the U.S., Saudi Arabia and
Iraq has offset the loss of more than 1 million barrels a day in Iranian
exports. As U.S. consumers pay $3.23 a gallon for gasoline, almost a dime
less than when sanctions took effect, Iran's economy will contract 1.5
percent this year after shrinking 1.9 percent in 2012, according to
International Monetary Fund estimates. 'Right now, Iran needs to sell its
oil far more than the rest of the world needs to buy it,' Trevor Houser,
a partner at the Rhodium Group LLC, a New York-based economic research
firm, said in an interview. 'If sanctions were suddenly lifted, I could
see a sharp drop in global oil prices, but I think it's highly unlikely
that we're going to see sanctions removed that quickly. Sanctions are
much harder to remove than to enact.'" http://t.uani.com/1eoKw1v
Reuters: "Iran is offering free delivery of crude to major client
India, industry sources said, signalling that tough Western sanctions
which have slashed its exports in half are driving Tehran to increasingly
desperate measures to keep oil flowing... Despite the near halt of
petrodollar payments, Iran is resorting to measures such as offering deep
discounts on oil and now free delivery to India, according to sources who
requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. Iran's
remaining Indian clients - Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd,
Essar Oil and Indian Oil Corp - could save freight of 70 cents to $1 a
barrel on purchases from Iran, said one of the sources. Tehran is also offering
Indian buyers a discount on price if refiners raise purchases, the
sources said. 'The more you buy, the more incentives you get. If a
refiner buys 30 million barrels of Iranian oil in a year then the
discount translates to 25 cents per barrel,' this source added. Iran
already offers 90 days' credit on crude sales to Indian refiners while
most other producers stick to 30 days' credit. While any discount would
be attractive as India tries to curb an oil import bill that was around
$170 billion in 2012/13, it likely would be wary of raising imports just
prior to a review of its waiver from U.S. sanctions. India's six-month
exemption comes up for renewal in early December, shortly after top U.S.
energy diplomat Carlos Pascual's current visit to New Delhi... In India,
there is about $5.3 billion of Iranian oil money held up by the
sanctions. Of the total, about $1.8 billion is with the oil companies who
have bought crude from Iran and the remainder is held with a bank,
sources said. In South Korea, total Iranian money stuck in bank accounts
is more than $5 billion, a source with direct knowledge of the matter
said. In Japan, a similar amount of Iranian oil money has been held up
since the beginning of the year, according to sources." http://t.uani.com/HIFnUF
Reuters: "Deutsche Boerse agreed on Thursday to pay $152 million to
settle allegations by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)
that the company's Clearstream unit may have violated U.S. economic
sanctions tied to Iran. The German exchange operator received an offer
from the United States in October after OFAC closed the
investigation." http://t.uani.com/HCbrsR
Terrorism
USA TODAY: "U.S.-designated terror group Hezbollah is expanding
networks and deployment of fighters from Lebanon to the entire Middle
East as part of its deepening alliance with Iran, say analysts. The
latest sign comes in Syria, where Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has
justified intervention as a battle he says is part of a region-wide war
of Sunni Muslims against Shiite Muslims... In addition, in 2011 Bahrain
filed a report with the U.N. Secretary General alleging that Shiite
Bahraini opposition members who staged an uprising against the
Sunni-ruled government were being trained in Hezbollah camps in Lebanon
and Iran... The group provided money, training and expertise in
explosives to Hamas, the terrorist group that controls Gaza, during the
Palestinian Intifada in 2000, Blanford says. In the Iraq War, Hezbollah
trained Shiite paramilitary squads, such as Kataeb Hezbollah and Assayib
Ahl al Haqq, at the request of Iran, he said. 'If Hezbollah today plays a
regional role, it is at the behest of Iran, and it is not a role it
aspires to,' said Levitt. Shehadi says Hezbollah is now facing problems
aligning its role as a Lebanese political party with the goals of its
Iranian backers, 'but it is willing to sacrifice its constituency to
satisfy Iranian interests,' he said. 'It is feeding sheep to the
slaughter.'" http://t.uani.com/1fm3YcS
Human Rights
AP: "Iranian Nobel Peace laureate Shirin Ebadi strongly criticized
the human rights record of President Hassan Rouhani, citing a dramatic
increase in executions since he took office this year and accusing the
government of lying about the release of political prisoners. She also
pointed to spreading support for a hunger strike by human rights lawyer
Abdolfattah Soltani and three others in a Tehran prison to protest
inadequate medical care, which was joined Monday by about 80 prisoners at
another prison west of the capital. Ebadi, a U.S.-based human rights
lawyer who since 2009 has lived outside Iran in self-exile, said in an
interview Tuesday with The Associated Press that Rouhani may have the
reputation of a moderate reformer, but so far 'we get bad signals' from
the new government when it comes to human rights... In the last 10 days,
40 people have been executed, including some political prisoners, Ebadi
said, and since Rouhani was inaugurated in August, the number of
executions has doubled compared with a year ago. Ebadi said government
propaganda claims that dozens of political prisoners have been released.
'This is a big lie,' she said. 'Twelve or thirteen people have been
released but these are people who had served their time.'" http://t.uani.com/1bdlGv8
ICHRI: "Since President Hassan Rouhani took office this August, Iran
has executed more than 200 people. This sharp increase in the number of
executions, specifically among drug traffickers and Kurdish activists,
has created concern among civil society that extremist groups in the Iranian
Judiciary and security apparatus have adopted this violent approach to
show that the status quo remains. Iran has hanged 40 people over the past
ten days. On November 3 and 4 alone, authorities executed 12 people in
different cities in Iran. In addition, Iranian Judiciary officials have
failed to follow through on their announcement in September to release
more than 80 prisoners of conscience during the recent religious
holidays. They have only released 42 prisoners of conscience, many of
them having completed or being near completion of their prison terms.
Hundreds of prisoners of conscience remain behind bars. Three political
dissidents and leaders of the post-2009 protests, Mir Hossein Mousavi,
Mehdi Karroubi, and Zahra Rahnavard, will mark 1000 days under house
arrest on November 10, 2013." http://t.uani.com/189QGLs
ANF: "Thousands gathered in the district of Özalp in Van Province in
order to protest the government of Iran following another execution of a
Kurdish political prisoner this morning in Seqiz Prison. Şerko Maarfi,
who was thirty-four years old, had been in prison since 2007 when he was
sentenced to death for agitating against the regime and being an 'enemy
of god.' The execution was the third execution of a Kurdish political
prisoner by the Iranian State in the past ten days... Aysel Tuğluk, a BDP
MP from Van, spoke at the protest, saying: 'Whether it be for political
reasons or for smuggling, Iran has executed 76 Kurds this year.'" http://t.uani.com/1hPtyt1
ICHRI: "A human rights activist with knowledge of the details of the
Monday morning execution of Shirkoo Moarefi, a Kurdish political
prisoner, told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran that
Moarefi did not know he was to be executed until his final moments...
Ahmad Saeed Sheikhi, one of [his] lawyers... confirmed news of his
execution and told [ICHRI], 'I learned about my client's execution from
news websites. I tried to contact his family many times and I was finally
able to talk to a family member at 4:00 p.m., who confirmed the news and
told me that the family were on their way to collect the body.'
Authorities arrested Shirkoo Moarefi, a 33-year-old Kurdish political and
civil activist from Baneh, on the Iran-Iraq border while he was
attempting to return to Iran from Iraqi Kurdistan in 2008. He was
sentenced to death on the charge of 'moharebeh' (enmity with God),
'membership in Komalah Party,' and 'acting against national
security.'" http://t.uani.com/1bdwBGw
IHR: "Five prisoners were hanged in the prison of Jiroft (Kerman
province, southeastern Iran) today, reported the Iranian State
Broadcasting. The prisoners who were not identified by name were all
convicted of drug related charges. Yesterday 5 other prisoners were
executed in the province of Kerman. According to the official Iranian
sources at least 20 people have been executed in the last three days in
Iran." http://t.uani.com/1b9tNfE
Domestic
Politics
Vocativ: "Stumble into a crowd chanting 'death to the dictator' in
Iran, and it's safe to assume you're at a good ole' fashion American flag
burning. Or maybe some sort of art competition. But a video uploaded to
YouTube yesterday shows a group of students at Tehran University chanting
'death to the dictator,' and they're not talking about Uncle Sam Satan;
they're referring to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader.
Earlier in the video, the crowd also booed a senior member of the Basij,
Iran's volunteer state militia. The encounter is making waves in the
country's limited social mediasphere, and it's easy to see why. The
incident appears to have occurred on Nov. 4, a day that marked the 34th
anniversary of when protesters stormed the American Embassy in
Tehran." http://t.uani.com/17eN8ga
Reuters: "Sunni Islamist Baluch militants claimed responsibility for
killing an Iranian public prosecutor in revenge for a decision to hang 16
prisoners following a cross-border attack by the group two weeks ago...
Jaish ul-Adl militants said they killed Nouri in revenge for the hanging
of 16 prisoners on October 26 ordered by judiciary officials in
retaliation for an attack in which the radical Sunni group killed 14
Iranian border guards a day before... 'After the execution of 16 innocent
young Baluch, its fighters took the decision to eliminate one of the
judicial authorities in Baluchistan to avenge their deaths.'" http://t.uani.com/1eoyfdB
Foreign Affairs
Reuters: "Iran's Foreign Minister ended a two-day visit to France on
Wednesday, a country he said was the most intransigent among the six
world powers - including the United States - that he will face at nuclear
talks this week... 'We have a new world. We need a different approach,
all of us, to global affairs,' Zarif told Reuters TV, smiling in front of
dozens of cameras before giving a speech to the general assembly of the
U.N. cultural agency UNESCO. 'Iran is ready to play that new role in that
different international environment,' he said... While President Francois
Hollande was the first Western leader to meet President Hassan Rouhani in
September, the tone from Paris since has been more prudent than others in
the 'P5+1' ... as Tehran pressed ahead with a diplomatic charm offensive
that it hopes will lead to an easing of sanctions. 'Iran must respond in
a concrete and verifiable way to the concerns of the international
community, because negotiations cannot be indefinite,' Roman Nadal, a
foreign ministry official said after Zarif met with his French
counterpart Laurent Fabius, the first time an Iranian foreign minister
has been received in Paris for four years." http://t.uani.com/1gtJmT7
AP: "Bahrain's flagship carrier Gulf Air says it will resume routes
to Iran more than two years after suspending flights over claims that
Tehran's leaders support a Shiite-led uprising in the Gulf kingdom. Next
month's restoration of air service is a rare thaw in relations. Air links
with Iran were cut after the beginning of the protests in February 2011
by Bahrain's Shiite majority seeking a greater political voice in the
Sunni-ruled nation. Shiite-power Iran has lauded the ongoing demonstrations,
but denies giving any direct assistance. The independent newspaper Al
Wasat reported Thursday that flights will resume Dec. 15 to the eastern
Iranian city of Mashhad, which has an important Shiite shrine. Gulf Air
confirmed the report." http://t.uani.com/16JcQXG
Opinion
& Analysis
Ray Takeyh in WashPost: "On the surface, the Islamic
Republic of Iran is an unsavory authoritarian state unworthy of support,
much less acclaim. A regime that is deeply embedded in Syria's civil war
and has embraced terrorism as an instrument of statecraft would seemingly
be at a disadvantage in presenting its case to the international
community. Yet Iran has had some success imposing its narrative on the
negotiations Iranian officials and Western nations are conducting about
its nuclear program. The theocratic state demands that its 'right to
enrich' be recognized upfront and that its past nuclear infractions be
forgiven. The great powers' diplomacy will be judged not by clever
formulations they devise to accommodate Iran's 'red lines' but by their
ability to veer Tehran away from its maximalist positions. President
Hassan Rouhani has managed to inculcate the notion that he is under
pressure from hard-liners at home and that a failure by the great powers
to invest in his presidency would end Iran's moderate interlude. The
implication: Time is of the essence, and the West should not miss an
opportunity to deal with pragmatists who seek a breakthrough on Iranian
arms control. But a more careful examination reveals that the Islamic
Republic has reached an internal consensus. It is ruled today by a
national unity government. The factionalism that has historically
bedeviled the theocracy has, for now, been set aside. For Iran's supreme
leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the most important objective is the
survival of the regime and preservation of its ideological character. As
an astute student of history, Khamenei senses that disunity among the
elites can feed popular discontent and imperil the regime. The fraudulent
presidential election of 2009 caused not only a legitimacy crisis but
also a fracture among the regime's elite. By conceding to Rouhani's
election, Khamenei has managed to restore a measure of accountability to
the system and has drawn some of his disgruntled cadre back to the fold.
Given such domestic calculations, Rouhani's political fortunes are not
necessarily contingent on the success of his arms-control policy.
Khamenei clearly hopes that his president can ease Iran's economic
distress, but the notion that Rouhani will be displaced unless he can
quickly obtain concessions from the West is spurious. If their diplomatic
efforts are to succeed, Western powers would be wise to reject the
nuclear alarmism that often surrounds this issue. The standard U.S.
government assessment is that Iran is still a year away from getting the
bomb. This year includes the time required to enrich uranium to
weapons-grade and to assemble a nuclear device. But this timeline
requires Iran to divert material from safeguarded facilities, an action
that would quickly be detected by the International Atomic Energy Agency
and that probably would provoke an international reaction. Accordingly,
there is nothing magical about 2014. Time is on the side of the United
States, not Iran - where economic conditions are worsening by the day.
Another issue that has paradoxically redounded to U.S. advantage was
Rouhani's trip to the U.N. General Assembly. Both U.S. and Iranian
officials unwisely raised expectations in September and fed a media
narrative of an imminent historic breakthrough between two old nemeses.
Such raised expectations work to the disadvantage of Iran rather than the
United States. Suddenly, the hard-pressed Iranian public has come to
expect imminent financial relief. Should the negotiations not yield an
accord in a timely manner, it is Khamenei, not President Obama, who would
face a popular backlash. A disenfranchised and dispossessed population is
an explosive political problem for Khamenei. The Western powers should
not be afraid to suspend negotiations or walk away, should the Iranians
prove intransigent. Ironically, stalemated negotiations are likely to
pressure Iran into offering more concessions. During the past decade, two
U.S. administrations have confounded their critics by crafting a
formidable sanctions architecture and adroitly managing an unruly
alliance system. It is important to have a proper estimation of the
Islamic Republic - a second-rate power with a third-rate nuclear program.
Khamenei presides over a government that is despised by its constituents
and distrusted by its neighbors. U.S. sanctions policy has offered its
diplomats indispensable leverage. Washington is in a position to demand
the most stringent of nuclear accords and should pay scant attention to
Iran's oft-proclaimed red lines. An agreement that not only buys time but
also prevents Iran from permanently reconstituting its nuclear weapons
ambitions is within grasp. With patience and firmness, a great diplomatic
victory can still be claimed." http://t.uani.com/1cG7PUD
David Ignatius in WashPost: "As the Obama
administration moves into a decisive stage of nuclear negotiations with
Iran, officials are considering a two-step process that would begin with
a freeze and modest rollback of Iranian enrichment of uranium, matched by
a limited easing of U.S.-led economic sanctions on Tehran. Officials hope
this first phase would be followed later by a comprehensive agreement
that would lift all sanctions in return for a verifiable halt in Iranian
nuclear weapons capability. This second phase is many months down the
road, but the shape of a possible initial phase has likely already been
discussed with U.S. negotiating partners in the 'P5+1' group (Britain,
France, Russia, China and Germany) and may be shared with the Iranians on
Thursday in Geneva... Administration officials see their goal, in the
first phase, as stopping the clock - and even adding a little more time.
The aim is to relieve time pressures on both sides enough and provide
sufficient additional transparency to allow the extended bargaining. As
in any negotiation, each side wants maximum benefit at minimum cost.
Economists speak of a 'price search' to discover an equilibrium point at
which a market 'clears' and a deal is struck. But sometimes the lines never
cross: The demands of one side are greater than what the other is willing
to pay - and an otherwise doable deal is never reached... What has been
notable in recent weeks, however, has been the convergence toward the
elements of possible compromise. The United States' idea is that both
sides would temporarily turn down their 'spigots' of pressure. The West
might allow Iran access to a limited portion of its oil revenue that has
been frozen by sanctions. Iranian sources have told me Iran might respond
by converting its existing stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium to
fuel rods or plates, and capping its stockpile of 3.5 percent enriched
uranium. Each side could later reopen these spigots - of Western
sanctions and Iranian enrichment - if interim negotiations don't produce
a final agreement. If the administration's 'freeze and reverse' approach
is adopted, the crucial issue would be Iran's array of centrifuges and
other enrichment technology. Israeli experts have insisted that Iran must
show it doesn't have 'breakout' capability by mothballing centrifuges
(especially the newer, more efficient models) and by refraining from
bringing online a planned heavy-water nuclear reactor at Arak. Otherwise,
say the Israelis, the Iranians could continue to creep closer to breakout
capability under the cover of negotiations. Iranian and American experts
have both described over the past few months the same framework for a
final deal - a verifiable set of procedures that reassures the West that
Iran couldn't dash to make a bomb using its existing centrifuges or any
covert facilities. This would mean a level of intrusive inspection that
would be hard for the Iranians to accept, but Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani told me in September that Tehran would consider such transparency
measures... Do the rewards of making a deal outweigh its costs? That's
the calculus both sides will have to weigh for the next few months. It's
a makeable putt, as golfers like to say, but far from a sure thing."
http://t.uani.com/1gtM6js
UANI Advisory Board Member Irwin Cotler in Times of Israel: "The
resumption of Iranian nuclear negotiations in Geneva this week has been
accompanied by raised expectations for a prospective agreement. Indeed, a
joint statement issued by the Iranian Foreign Minister and the European
Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs called the first round of
talks 'substantive and forward-looking,' while a U.S. official has
described conversations with the Iranian delegation as 'intense,
detailed, straightforward, candid'. Indeed, in a departure from past
pronouncements, even the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
referred to its recent discussions with Iran as 'very productive,' the
whole underpinning an atmosphere of optimism. Yet, amidst this hope there
remains cause for concern given the Iranian regime's longstanding '3-D'
negotiating strategy: denial, deception, and delay. While the change in
Iranian leadership may be seen as a sign of progress, it should be
recalled that newly-elected President Hassan Rouhani had himself boasted
about this negotiating strategy in earlier negotiations, saying: 'While
we were talking with the Europeans in Tehran, we were installing
equipment in parts of the facility in Isfahan... In fact, by creating a
calm environment, we were able to complete the work on Isfahan.' As such,
in order that the optimism find expression in concrete advances promoting
international peace and security - and the well-being of the Iranian
people themselves - current negotiations should be grounded in the
following foundational principles." http://t.uani.com/1923oLK
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