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Reuters:
"Iran's oil exports have risen further in February for a fourth
consecutive month, according to sources who track tanker movements,
adding to signs that the easing of sanctions pressure on Tehran is
helping its oil exports to recover. The increase in shipments is around
100,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to one tracker company, which
would take Iranian exports to at least 1.30 million bpd for February... A
second tracking source familiar with Iran's shipments said extra cargoes
had headed to Syria and South Korea in February. Two cargoes were
unloaded in Indonesian waters - a location sometimes used by Iran for
ship-to-ship transfers... Mark Wallace, chief executive of U.S. pressure
group United Against Nuclear Iran, which seeks tougher sanctions, said
Iran's economy was already benefiting from the sanctions relief. 'The
Obama administration has stated that sanctions relief would only amount
to $6 billion (£3.6 billion) to $7 billion, however the increase in oil
sales alone has already been worth over $4 billion in new revenue for the
regime,' said Wallace, a former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. 'If Iran's
oil exports remain constant from now until July, the regime will have
gained more than $14 billion in additional revenue post-Geneva, not
including the various other economic benefits from sanctions-easing
related to areas such as the petrochemicals, automotive and precious
metals sectors.'" http://t.uani.com/1o8wuBl
Reuters:
"The U.N. nuclear watchdog planned a major report on Iran that might
have revealed more of its suspected atomic bomb research, but held off as
Tehran's relations with the outside world thawed, sources familiar with
the matter said... According to the sources, the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) has apparently dropped the idea of a new report, at
least for the time being. There was no immediate comment from the IAEA.
The sources said there was no way of knowing what information collected
by the agency since it issued a landmark report on Iran in 2011 might
have been incorporated in the new document, although one said it could
have added to worries about Tehran's activities... A decision not to go
ahead with the new document may raise questions about information that
the United Nations agency has gathered in the last two years on what it
calls the 'possible military dimensions' (PMD) to Iran's nuclear
programme... The sources, who declined to be identified due to the
sensitivity of the issue, suggested the more recent material concerned
extra detail about alleged research and experiments that were covered in
the November 2011 report. A new report would probably have included
'updated information on PMD' which could have 'reinforced the concern'
about Iran, one said." http://t.uani.com/OGjt7T
Reuters:
"Senator Robert Menendez is happy to play the role of a U.S. 'bad
cop' on Iran. Just don't call him a warmonger. The Democratic chairman of
the influential Senate Foreign Relations Committee upset the White House
by leading the push for a bill that would tighten sanctions even further
on Tehran, potentially putting at risk nuclear talks between world powers
and the Islamic Republic. Still, his hard line on Iran has its uses in
the negotiations. Congressional hawks like Menendez have allowed 'good
cop' Obama administration negotiators to remind Iran that Congress is
ready to impose more sanctions if talks do not go well. 'I think that we
have been a positive force on getting Iran to this moment, and I think
the administration actually has worked away with the best of all worlds,'
Menendez told Reuters in a telephone interview. 'We have the same end
goal. We have at the moment a difference in tactics,' the New Jersey
Democrat said... While they have no problem playing Obama's foil on Iran,
Menendez and other senators bristled when a White House aide publicly
accused them last month of warmongering... 'It was unfortunate to have
spokespeople for the administration suggest that,' said Menendez, 60, who
won his first election four decades ago. 'It did not serve the
administration well. It did not serve our ultimate goal of getting Iran
to stop nuclear weapons.'" http://t.uani.com/OGke0M
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
Trend:
"Iran's Arak Heavy Water Reactor is now 85 percent complete,
Vice-Speaker of the Parliament Mohammad Hassan Aboutorabi Fard said,
Iranian Donya-e-eqtesad newspaper reported on Feb. 27. The MP went on to
say that in the past the western powers wanted Iran's nuclear sites to be
closed. Meanwhile today they have accepted their loss negotiating with
Iran on the issue. 'Some 19,000 Iranian centrifuges are spinning and the
Arak heavy water reactor is 85 percent complete,' he remarked." http://t.uani.com/1epw1tI
Reuters:
"The United States has an obligation to pursue nuclear negotiations
with Iran before it considers going to war with Tehran to force it to
give up its nuclear activities, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said
on Wednesday. 'We took the initiative and led the effort to try to figure
out if before we go to war there actually might be a peaceful solution,'
Kerry told a group of reporters... 'I happen to believe as a matter of
leadership, and I learnt this pretty hard from Vietnam, before you send young
people to war you ought to find out if there is a better alternative,'
said Kerry, who served in the Vietnam War as a young U.S. naval officer.
'That is an obligation we have as leaders to exhaust all the remedies
available to you before you ask people to give up their lives and that is
what we are doing' with Iran, he added." http://t.uani.com/1jDcM0z
Global Security
Newswire: "Iran has resumed activities at an
installation believed by some specialists to have housed nuclear-arms
studies, says a Washington analytical group. A Jan. 30 satellite
photograph shows new movements at Iran's Parchin base following an
apparent lull in large-scale operations at the site, according to a
Tuesday assessment by the Institute for Science and International
Security. The facility remains off-limits to International Atomic Energy
Agency inspectors who suspect it may have once hosted a structure capable
of accommodating atomic-relevant detonation experiments, as well as
potential work on a 'neutron initiator' to trigger nuclear blasts. The
think tank said that debris and possible construction supplies have
appeared close to the suspected detonation chamber's former housing, as
well as near an edifice on the northern edge of the Parchin complex. The
finding came less than a week after IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano
cited the appearance of apparent construction materials and debris at
Parchin since November." http://t.uani.com/1ftrhVA
Reuters:
"The United States will provide 750,000 euros ($1.03 million /
619,325 pounds) to help pay for the U.N. atomic agency's work in
verifying the implementation of last year's nuclear accord between world
powers and Iran, a U.S. official said on Wednesday. The International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in January told member states it needed about
5.5 million euros in 'extra-budgetary voluntary contributions' to finance
its increased inspector activity in Iran during the six-month deal... One
diplomat said he had heard the Vienna-based U.N. agency had so far
received pledges of about 4.5 million euros. The IAEA had no immediate
comment on the issue on Wednesday." http://t.uani.com/1kcjRYN
Domestic
Politics
FT:
"When Mohammad-Ali Najafi resigned in January just six months after
taking over as head of Iran's Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organisation,
the official reason was ill health. Others gave a different explanation:
that he quit after realising he could not get to grips with the
overstaffed bureaucracy of the bloated organisation he presided over. 'Mr
Najafi was frustrated that he could not push for any reforms,' said one
political analyst. 'It was not easy to change a director, for instance,
as many employees were opposing new policies.' Analysts say among the
biggest challenges facing the seven-month-old government of Hassan Rouhani,
Iran's centrist president, is dealing with the dramatic rise in the
number of employees at state-run organisations over the past few
years." http://t.uani.com/1jDcXce
Opinion &
Analysis
William Tobey in
FP: "The world's nuclear weapons proliferators watch
each other. They look for warnings and opportunities in how their peers
are treated. Iran halted its nuclear weapons development after Saddam was
toppled for several years. Libya's Muammar al-Gaddafi also got cold feet.
Later, Tehran watched the tepid international responses to the 2006 North
Korean nuclear test and to a secret Syrian plutonium production reactor
(which Israel destroyed as it neared completion in 2007), and apparently
decided that the rewards outweighed the risks associated with constructing
a covert uranium enrichment facility near Qom. What are the Mullahs
watching now? Syria, where the Obama administration's policy is failing.
U.N. mediator Lakhdar Brahimi reports that the first round of the Geneva
2 peace talks failed even to provide for any humanitarian relief, let
alone to make progress toward a political settlement. He lamented that,
'We haven't achieved anything.' The Assad government then escalated its
attacks against civilians by dropping 'barrel bombs' packed with
explosives and shrapnel on neighborhoods and mosques, continuing a brutal
war that has already killed over 130,000 people and displaced millions.
Even Secretary of State John Kerry acknowledges that U.S. policy on Syria
is failing. More to the point for Tehran, the effort to destroy Syria's
chemical weapons has stalled. Last week, the U.S. representative to the
Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, Ambassador Robert
Mikulak, blasted the Syrian government, noting that only 4 percent of
priority one chemicals had been removed, despite a December 31, 2013
deadline for shipping all such materials out of Syria. He went on to
accuse Damascus of a 'bargaining mentality.' Syria's compliance has been
belated, incomplete, and grudging. Worse, while the agreement to remove
Syria's chemical weapons has stalled, it has also effectively halted
international efforts to remove Assad. The obvious lesson for Tehran:
Reach an interim agreement that deflates international pressure for
action, drag your feet on implementation, and keep your illicit weapons
program as the world dithers. The stakes in Syria have always been high.
The civil war is a humanitarian catastrophe. Its outcome will determine
whether or not Iran continues to extend its reach to the border of Israel
through its Hezbollah proxies. It will affect prospects for peace and
stability in Lebanon and perhaps Jordan. And, it will profoundly
influence the outcome of nuclear negotiations with Tehran... If the Obama
administration cannot compel a weakened Assad government, beset by civil
war and subject to international opprobrium for using chemical weapons,
to comply with its disarmament obligations, it is unlikely to succeed in
dealing with a much stronger Iranian regime. The price of failure in
Syria could be a doomed nuclear deal with Iran." http://t.uani.com/1bOzYc6
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