Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Eye on Iran: Iran's Khamenei Says Nuclear Talks Will 'Lead Nowhere'








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AFP: "Iran's top decision-maker Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Monday that while he is not against a resumption of nuclear negotiations with the world's major powers, the talks will 'lead nowhere'. 'Some of the officials of the previous government as well as the officials of this government think the problem will be resolved if they negotiate the nuclear issue,' Khamenei said in remarks published on his website Khamenei.ir. 'I repeat it again that I am not optimistic about the negotiations and they will lead nowhere, but I am not against them,' he added. Iran is due to resume talks on Tuesday in Vienna with the P5+1 powers -- Britain, France, the United States, Russia and China plus Germany -- aimed at reaching a comprehensive accord on its controversial nuclear programme...  'The Iranian nation emphasised that it will never succumb to the bullying and blackmailing of America,' said Khamenei, referring to anti-US slogans chanted by huge crowds during nationwide celebrations last week of the 35th anniversary of country's Islamic revolution... 'The Iranian nation emphasised that it will never succumb to the bullying and blackmailing of America,' said Khamenei, referring to anti-US slogans chanted by huge crowds during nationwide celebrations last week of the 35th anniversary of country's Islamic revolution. He also said Iran's nuclear issue was an excuse for Washington to pursue hostile policies towards the Islamic republic. 'The nuclear issue is an excuse for America (to continue) its animosity. Now, the American spokesmen are bringing up the issues of human rights and missiles.'" http://t.uani.com/1gUQVPX

AFP: "An Iranian negotiator said nuclear talks with world powers this week would focus on advanced centrifuges and the unfinished Arak heavy water reactor, the official IRNA news agency reported Sunday... 'Using advanced and new centrifuges is one of the focal points which should be examined and solved for the long term and comprehensive deal, since we will definitely not accept to be deprived from having the right to replace the existing centrifuges with the new and advanced ones,' Hamid Baeedinejad, an Iranian nuclear negotiator, told IRNA. 'The Arak heavy water reactor is also one of the most important and difficult subjects to be examined and discussed in the negotiations, and we certainly want to keep this reactor.' ... The unfinished Arak reactor is of concern to the West because Tehran could theoretically extract weapons-grade plutonium from its spent fuel if it also builds a reprocessing facility, giving it a second possible route to a nuclear bomb. Baeedinejad said any proposal which would allay such concerns 'without changing the essence of the reactor' would be examined." http://t.uani.com/M6ec7l

Reuters: "Russia could build a second reactor at Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant in exchange for Iranian oil, the Iranian ambassador to Moscow said in remarks published on Monday. Russia could also supply Iran with trucks, railroad tracks, mini-refineries or other goods to pay for the oil, ambassador Mehdi Sanaei told the daily Kommersant, under a deal Reuters revealed was being negotiated last month. Reuters reported Iran and Russia were negotiating to swap up to 500,000 barrels of oil per day for goods in the deal that would undermine Western efforts to maintain economic pressure on Tehran while global powers seek to curb its nuclear programme. In an interview published a day before the six powers including Russia resume talks with Tehran on a nuclear deal, Sanaei confirmed Russia and Iran were discussing supplies of 'a few hundred thousand barrels per day'... Sanaei said it was possible the oil deal, and a broad memorandum on economic cooperation, could be signed before August. Russian Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev is to visit Iran in April for talks on trade... In addition to the possibility of Russia building a second reactor at Bushehr, he said Tehran was interested in supplies of heavy trucks or their assembly in Iran, and other items. 'Iran is interested in buying a huge amount of railroad tracks from Russia, as well as Russian involvement in the electrification of its railways. We are also interested in Russian grain.'" http://t.uani.com/1hpoHBk
   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Bloomberg: "Iran and world powers may struggle to meet a self-imposed July deadline to agree on long-term limitations to the nation's nuclear work in return for sanctions relief, according to former diplomats and analysts. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and European Union foreign-policy chief Catherine Ashton meet today in Vienna. Diplomats from China, France, Germany, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S., the so-called P5+1, convene meetings with their counterparts from Iran tomorrow for the first round of talks since reaching their Geneva accord in November. 'The six-month deadline is tight,' Thomas Pickering, a former U.S. undersecretary of state and ambassador to the United Nations, said in an interview. 'If real progress is being made, an extension would certainly be warranted.' ... 'The next five months are very unlikely to see a full agreement but there are strong prospects of a clear road map,' said Paul Rogers, global-security specialist at the Oxford Research Group, a London-based conflict-advisory group. An agreement may emerge 'quite possibly over one to three years.'" http://t.uani.com/1jvZSRq

Global Security Newswire: "A newly described Iranian weapon is likely designed to hold cluster munitions, not multiple warheads, as initially reported, says IHS Jane's Defense Weekly. Iran would face substantial difficulties in equipping the 'Barani' ballistic missile to protect dozens of reentry vehicles during their return into the atmosphere, the defense publication said in a Thursday analysis. The Persian Gulf power earlier this week said the missile performed as intended in a recent trial flight, and state television paired the announcement with a mock-up image of two ballistic missiles each firing roughly 30 reentry vehicles outside the earth's atmosphere. Iranian media described the Barani as a 'new generation of long-range ballistic missiles carrying multiple reentry vehicle payloads.' Jane's, though, said it is 'extremely unlikely' that the missile can accommodate multiple warheads, a capacity commonly tied to nuclear arms. Rather, Iran probably built the Barani payload to drop numerous smaller bomblets after returning into the atmosphere, the analysis says." http://t.uani.com/1cgYPTU

Sanctions Relief

Free Beacon: "Iranian oil exports soared in January, hitting new highs just months after the United States consented to billions of dollars in economic sanctions relief under the interim nuclear deal... Iranian oil exports have steadily risen since negotiations with the West restored confidence in Tehran's economy. The increase runs counter to a promise by the Obama administration that 'Iran's oil exports will remain steady at their current level of around 1 million barrels per day.' ... The significant rise in oil exports has led some experts to accuse the Obama administration of misleading the public about the amount of sanctions relief provided under the interim nuclear deal. While the White House said Iran would receive no more than $7 billion in relief, these experts say that the rise in oil exports and other economic spikes will give Iran 'well more than $20 billion.' 'These numbers ... cast doubt on the accuracy of the administration's estimates for sanctions relief,' former Ambassador Mark Wallace, CEO of the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, said in a statement. 'The $6 or $7 billion estimate does not take into account the tens of billions of dollars Iran will reap from increased oil sales.' 'It is becoming more and more evident that the Geneva deal provided Iran with disproportionate sanctions relief, in exchange for far less significant concessions regarding its nuclear program,' Wallace said." http://t.uani.com/1cf2qlg

WSJ: "Iran's largest private bank, Bank Mellat, is suing the U.K. Treasury for some $4 billion in compensation for what it alleges was lost business due to British sanctions against Iran. A spokesman for the U.K. Treasury said he couldn't comment on ongoing legal proceedings. In a filing on Friday with London's Commercial Court, which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Bank Mellat's lawyers, Zaiwalla & Co., said the bank is seeking $3.98 billion in reparations for lost international businesses due to sanctions. The claim follows a June 2013 ruling by Britain's highest court that found sanctions imposed on the bank by the U.K. government in 2009 were illegal because Bank Mellat isn't a state-owned financial institution, and there wasn't evidence it aided Iran's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/1hoyE1U

Trend: "A delegation of industrial and trade entities from Germany will travel to Iran on February 22, IRIB reported on February 16. The delegation will be comprised of officials in the fields of energy, food, engineering, steel, telecommunications, construction, agriculture, and medical treatment industries... The German ambassador, for his part, said that the recent decline in the Iran-Germany trade is unfortunate and Germany is displeased with the issue." http://t.uani.com/1e0j5Wg

Trend: "A high-ranking Thai business delegation will visit Iran next week to discuss avenues for enhancing economic ties between the two countries, an Iranian official says, Press TV reported. The delegation headed by the director general of Thailand Ministry of Commerce's International Trade Development Center, and comprising representatives of different commercial and manufacturing sectors of the country will visit Iran from February 16 to 18, said head of Iranian Imports Association Mohammad Hossein Barkhordar on Friday. He pointed to Thailand's determination to enhance economic ties with the Islamic Republic at all levels and noted that the country can be considered a reliable source of some essential commodities, electronic equipment and automobile parts for Iran. Iran, on the other hand, can provide Thailand with many chemical, industrial and mineral products, including steel and its derivatives, the Iranian official added." http://t.uani.com/1dD91XX

Sanctions Enforcement & Impact

WSJ: "The world's largest pool of tanker insurers is advising members they shouldn't insure Iranian oil shipments, citing the short-time frame of sanction loosening agreed to between Iran and Western powers... In an interview with The Wall Street Journal Friday, Andrew Bardot, executive officer of the International Group of Protection & Indemnity Clubs, a pool of member insurers who cover around 95% of oil tanker capacity world-wide, said its members are warning clients the short-term nature of the relief make it impossible for them to indemnify Iranian cargoes. P&I members 'are saying: Don't do it as we cannot guarantee coverage,' Mr. Bardot said. With many liability claims stemming from seaborne accidents taking years to be resolved, 'it is highly unlikely that claims would be presented and liabilities finally determined prior to the July 20 cutoff' of the temporary sanctions relief, Mr. Bardot said. In addition, U.S. reinsurers participating in the group's pool remain subject to insurance prohibitions, he said. That could effectively make it impossible for any member of the group to make payouts on claims. The insurance official said the International P&I was seeking clarifications from the U.S. Treasury and the European Union on whether such hurdles could be surmounted. A U.S. Treasury spokesperson said it is 'still actively looking into this issue.' A spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said 'consultations are ongoing,' without providing more details.  For now, however, operators aren't taking chances. 'We have sought legal advice and been told it is impossible to return' to carrying Iranian oil, an official at a large Greek tanker operator said." http://t.uani.com/1j2KAnA

Reuters: "South Korea's crude imports from Iran fell 51 percent in January from a month earlier, and shipments are expected to remain at around 125,000 bpd through the first six months of the interim deal on Tehran's nuclear programme... South Korea imported 275,169 tonnes of Iranian crude last month, or 65,064 barrels per day (bpd), down 51 percent from December, also down 66 percent from a year earlier, preliminary customs data showed on Saturday... South Korea's Iranian crude imports, however, can vary month on month as one of the two Korean refiners that buys from Iran receives oil only every other month. SK Energy and Hyundai Oilbank are the only South Korean refiners that buy Iranian oil on a regular basis." http://t.uani.com/1lYLfHK

Trend: "The largest Iranian carmaker, 'Iran Khodro' has experienced $201 million (based on official rate of 24,871rials per each USD) in loss during the first half of the current Iranian calendar year, which started on March 21, 2013, the Managing Director of the company, Hashem Yekke Zareh said, Iran's ISNA news agency reported on Feb. 17. He went on to say that, currently the company manufactures with only 60 percent of its production capacity. According to the statistics, about 69 automobile manufacturer units have been closed and 115,000 people lost their jobs in the automobile sector of Iran during the past two years due to pressure of the sanctions. Increasing prices on raw materials and foreign currencies are car manufacturers' main problems in Iran. Yekke Zareh forecasted that the company will manufacture with 100 percent of its capacity by June, 2014. He also expressed hope that the company's production will increase by 40 percent in the next Iranian calendar year, compared to the current year." http://t.uani.com/1gbImiW

Terrorism

WashPost: "A senior al-Qaeda figure with close ties to the terrorist group's current leader has left Iran, where he had lived for years after fleeing American forces in Afghanistan in 2001, according to former and current U.S. intelligence officials. Thirwat Shihata is the latest terrorist suspect to leave Iran, raising questions about the country's motives for allowing or forcing the departure of a string of al-Qaeda members that it had sheltered over the past decade. U.S. officials said that Shihata, a 53-year-old Egyptian, was the deputy of Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's current leader, when he ran Egyptian Islamic Jihad before it formally joined forces with Osama bin Laden in 1998... It was not clear when Shihata departed Iran, but a former U.S. official, who also requested anonymity, said he was believed to have traveled to Libya." http://t.uani.com/N1FRai

Syria Conflict

Reuters: "U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry blamed the Assad government for stalling Syrian peace talks and pressed Russia to stop supplying it weapons, telling Moscow it needed to be part of the solution. International mediator Lakhdar Brahimi said in Geneva on Saturday that the first two rounds of peace talks had not made much progress but that the two sides had agreed on an agenda for a third round at an unspecified date. 'The regime stonewalled. They did nothing except continue to drop barrel bombs on their own people and continue to destroy their own country. And I regret to say they are doing so with increased support from Iran, from Hezbollah and from Russia,' Kerry told reporters in Jakarta on Monday during a trip to Asia and the Middle East." http://t.uani.com/1oH2WxH

Human Rights

IHR: "Two men were hanged in public in the city of Karaj at 7 AM this morning, reported the Iranian state media today. The state run Fars news agency reported that the men who were identified as 'A. R.' (23 year old) and 'N. J.' (37 year old), were convicted of rape , kidnapping and armed robbery. Other local news sources identified these prisoners as 'Nematollah Jazaei' and 'Abolfazl Rezaei'. According to Dana News website one of the prisoners was calling God's name and asking for forgiveness." http://t.uani.com/1j2J4lt

ICHRI: "The Iranian government must end the inhumane practice of holding its critics under house arrest for years without due process, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said today. February 14, 2014, marks three years since Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Zahra Rahnavard were placed under a de facto and illegal house arrest in Tehran. 'It's astonishing that with all of President Hassan Rouhani's remarks about citizens' rights, these three leading political figures are still under house arrest, an absolute injustice and disrespect for citizens' rights,' said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. 'Though Iran's Supreme Leader is ultimately responsible, as the head of Iran's National Security Council President Rouhani can and should stop the ongoing house arrests, which continue to cast a long shadow over his intentions and remarks about respecting his people,' Ghaemi added." http://t.uani.com/1gSiqcT

Independent: "It's been over 100 days into Rouhadi's Presidency in Iran, and two more Kurdish-Iranian journalists have been arrested and detained. Forty year old Khosro Kordpour was sentence to six years and his younger brother Masoud Kordpour to three and a half years.  Khosro is facing the additional special charge of 'enmity against God' and 'corruption on earth' - both of which hold the death penalty." http://t.uani.com/1m0K4aE

Domestic Politics

CSM: "President Hassan Rouhani swept to election victory last year on the slogan "prudence and hope" and a wave of high expectations for cultural and political change in Iran. But after six months in office, the centrist cleric is caught between reformists frustrated at the slow pace of change and hard-line conservatives who warn that Mr. Rouhani's agenda risks reigniting 'sedition.' The scale of criticism from opposing camps has been so great that it prompted Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to urge patience and support." http://t.uani.com/1oHgYiQ

Foreign Affairs

Fars (Iran): "Commander of the Army Ground Force Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Pourdastan warned Washington against a military move against Iran, and said the US is moving towards a final collapse. 'Based on the remarks of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution (Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei), the world arrogance is moving on a historical twist and if it repeats its wrong method against Iran, it will no doubt have no destiny, but decomposition like the Soviet Union,' Pourdastan said in the Western city of Kermanshah on Sunday. He further reiterated that the US is moving on the path of collapse. Elsewhere, Pourdastan underscored the Iranian Armed Forces' preparedness to defend the country, and said even the US has always acknowledged the crucial importance of Iran's sensitive position in the region. In relevant remarks in December, Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force General Qassem Soleimani downplayed Washington's war rhetoric against Tehran, and underlined that the US has collapsed in all the three arenas of economy, politics and military. 'The Americans and (US President Barack) Obama are lying when they assert that all options are on the table against Iran,' Soleimani said in the Southeastern city of Sirjan. 'That the Americans say we have brought Iran to its knees by pressures and sanctions is nothing more than a lie, rather it is the US which has collapsed in political, economic and military arenas which are considered as the main elements of power,' he added." http://t.uani.com/1oHia5Q

AP: "Tehran's interior minister has warned Pakistan that Iranian forces may enter Pakistani and Afghan territory to released border guards seized by a rebel group. Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli's remarks on state TV come a week after the little-known Jaish al-Adl posted photos on Twitter of five men it claims are border guards it seized near Pakistan. He said Iran had asked Pakistan to treat the case 'strongly and seriously' or allow Iran to secure the remote region 'deep on Afghanistan and Pakistan soil.' 'Otherwise we do consider it our own right to intervene and create a new security sphere for our safety,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1eI7Wtd

Opinion & Analysis

Mansour Osanlou in Al-Monitor: "With great interest, eyes around the world are watching the beginning of Iran's nuclear deal and its exclusion from the peace conference on Syria. While these are indeed important developments for the entire world, the protection of human rights is a more relevant issue for the average Iranian. ust this month, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif admitted to the country's human rights 'problems and shortcomings,' restating that his new boss, President Hassan Rouhani, has promised to address them. Concrete changes have yet to take place, in part because as Zarif stated, it is a process of 'consensus-building, not an immediate issue' and 'not everything is in the hands of the executive branch.' The widespread arbitrary arrest and detention of citizens for exercising rights protected under international law and systemic torture have made it an immediate issue for many of us, however. As some 900 prisoners of conscience and political prisoners remain holed up in deplorable, inhumane conditions in Iran, every day matters. I know this feeling of urgency. I was one of those prisoners. As a labor activist and head of the Tehran bus drivers union, I spent more than five years in prison, experiencing physical and psychological torture, and constant threats against me and my family. Despite being squeezed for extended periods of time into a concrete hole barely long enough to fit my body but not wide enough to stretch my arms, I consider myself one of the fortunate ones. Through my role in the union and as an activist, I forged many relationships with other human rights defenders and trade unionist both in Iran and abroad. When I was illegally jailed for advocating on behalf of bus drivers for fair wages, they called publicly for my release. Many others, however, do not benefit from this kind of attention. The international media, too, helped me regain my freedom by reporting my situation and detention, building a sense of public empathy - even from prison guards, some of whom I can call my friends. While the prison conditions I was subjected to were cruel and degrading, my name and location were known, my story was told and my freedom was returned, even if it involved fleeing my home country. Other activists whom I admire have unfortunately not enjoyed the same luck, which is why I have made it my mission to share their stories and advocate on their behalf... Prison conditions in Iran are a major concern of Ahmed Shaheed, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in Iran. According to his reports to the UN, many prisoners have been denied access to necessary medical care, and have faced severe overcrowding and inadequate nutritional provisions, in violation of international law and standards. My brother, Afshin Osanlou, was a victim of such deplorable circumstances. Afshin, also a labor activist, was arrested in 2010 on charges of 'assembling to act against national security,' and sentenced to five years in prison. On June 20, 2013, he was pronounced dead on his way to the hospital because of a heart attack. Documentation has emerged proving that my brother's death was based on neglect, however. It took an hour for him to be taken to the prison infirmary after he complained of chest pain, and three more to reach a hospital. He was transferred in a car with no medical equipment or staff aboard to assist. Reports by the prison physicians appear inaccurate, and to make matters worse my family was informed of the tragedy two days after my brother's death, not from officials but from our contacts inside the prison. We were not even allowed to hold the memorial service at a mosque. Currently, there are many prisoners whose lives are endangered by lack of medical attention, including labor activists Rasoul Bodaghi and Reza Shahabi, secular democracy advocate Arjang Davoudi, and Kurdish activist Kairm Maroof Aziz, who is nearly 80 years old and has been in prison for 30 years. The world cannot wait for Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Javad Zarif to address the plight of Iranian political prisoners... International pressure saved my life and helped me get my freedom back. The stories of Heshmatollah, Afshin and others, on the other hand, prove what happens when there is lack thereof. Unfortunately, these are a few of countless cases in which prisoners have been forgotten about. For their safety, the international community must continue to insist Iran put an end to these cruel practices and ultimately demand their freedom. Though I had no other choice but to leave the only place I knew as home, I am fortunate and free, a testament that it is possible when the international community insists on accountability and justice. It is my turn now to join the chorus and call for the release of others." http://t.uani.com/1f52K8S

David Albright in ISIS: "On February 8 and 9, 2014, the International Atomic Energy (IAEA) and Iran held constructive technical meetings within the Framework for Cooperation that was agreed between the parties in November 2013.  Iran and the IAEA reached agreement on seven practical measures to be implemented by Iran by May 15, 2014, including one provision: 'Providing information and explanations for the IAEA to assess Iran's stated need or application for the development of Exploding Bridge Wire (EBW) detonators.  These EBW detonators are also called Electrical Bridge Wire detonators.' In April 2008 ISIS posted on its website a document summarizing a February 25, 2008 technical briefing given in Vienna by Olli Heinonen, then the IAEA's Deputy Director General of Safeguards, to member states, including Iran.  The briefing highlighted several technical issues related to the IAEA's outstanding questions about the scope and direction of Iran's alleged nuclear weaponization program prior to 2004.  The briefing included the issue of the EBW detonators and the questions that Iran needed to clarify at that time. Iran and the IAEA had subsequent discussions in 2008 but they were unable to settle this issue, partially because of Iran's abrupt cancellation of scheduled meetings and visits in September 2008. The development of safe, fast-acting detonators, such as EBWs, and equipment suitable for firing the detonators, is an integral part of a program to develop an implosion type nuclear device.  Thus, the IAEA was concerned about Iran's alleged work on EBW detonators in the context of firing systems, or multipoint initiation systems, that Iran was reportedly using in nuclear weapons development and testing prior to 2004.  The IAEA's concerns were increased by information that Iran developed and tested a remote firing system, which would have involved EBWs, that appears connected to developing a capability to detonate a nuclear device underground from a site ten kilometers away. Although Iran has not committed in this recent agreement with the IAEA to discuss all the major outstanding issues surrounding its alleged military nuclear programs, it has now committed to provide information and explanations to enable the IAEA to assess its stated need or application for the development of EBWs. That assessment will necessarily involve the IAEA drawing on its information suggesting that Iran was developing and testing EBWs as part of firing systems for use in nuclear implosion devices." http://t.uani.com/1jw2puL

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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