Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Eye on Iran: Kerry Says Iran Nuclear 'Breakout' Window Now Seen as Two Months








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Reuters: "Iran can produce fissile material for an atomic weapon in two months, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday told a Senate hearing in which he faced tough questions from lawmakers about negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. 'I think it's public knowledge today that we're operating with a time period for a so-called breakout of about two months. That's been in the public domain,' Kerry testified at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing. 'So six months to 12 months is - I'm not saying that's what we'd settle for, but even that is significantly more,' Kerry said in response to a question about whether a 'breakout' window of up to a year was the negotiators' goal... Kerry said such a 'breakout' window did not mean Iran would have a warhead or other delivery system. 'It's just having one bomb's worth, conceivably, of material, but without any necessary capacity to put it in anything, to deliver it, to have any mechanism to do so,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1eqNpuD

Reuters: "Negotiators from Iran and six world powers struggled on Wednesday to narrow 'significant gaps' in talks aimed at clearing the way for a long-term accord on curbing Tehran's nuclear program. The negotiators from Iran and the so-called P5-plus-one - the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany - plan after their two days of talks in Vienna to start drafting the agreement to meet a self-imposed July 20 deadline. 'The Iranians clearly have a sense of urgency to get a deal done, as does the P5+1,' a Western diplomat close to the talks told Reuters. 'We know that there are still some significant gaps that remain and know this process will not be easy. But we're all committed to getting it (the draft) done by July 20,' he said, in an assessment echoed by other Western diplomats. The toughest areas to be tackled are Iran's future uranium enrichment capacity, nuclear facilities that Western powers believe have little or no civilian value, and future nuclear research work, as well as a schedule of steps to remove the international sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy... A senior Iranian official said Tehran was seeking to protect its 'red lines' in what he said were 'difficult' negotiations. 'Iran wants a deal in which its rights have been considered,' the official said. 'The talks have entered a very difficult stage. Making progress is difficult.' ... Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly said that the oil-producing OPEC member's 'red lines' are that it will never give up enrichment or shut any nuclear facility." http://t.uani.com/1eaetn8

Reuters: "The White House made clear on Tuesday that it did not welcome Iran's choice of Hamid Abutalebi as its new United Nations ambassador, saying officials had told Tehran that the selection was 'not viable.' But White House spokesman Jay Carney stopped short of saying Abutalebi would be barred from entering the United States because of his alleged role in the 1979-1981 hostage crisis, during which radical Iranian students held U.S. Embassy staff for 444 days. 'We've informed the government of Iran that this potential selection is not viable,' Carney told reporters. Asked to explain what 'not viable' meant, Carney said: 'It's diplomatic jargon to mean what you want it to mean.' He declined to elaborate on whether Abutalebi would be barred from the country, and emphasized that Iran's choice of Abutalebi was a 'potential selection' that had 'not been formally made.' As the 'host' nation for the U.N. headquarters, the United States is generally required to provide access to the United Nations for foreign diplomats. However, the State Department last week said U.S. law allows it to deny visas to diplomats for reasons of 'security, terrorism, and foreign policy.'" http://t.uani.com/1g76dzA
      
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Reuters: "Iran's senior negotiator, Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, said 'general discussions' had been completed. 'The (heavy-water nuclear) reactor of Arak will remain as the heavy-water reactor ... but there are technical ways to decrease concerns over its activities ... Also Iran will not stop or suspend its uranium enrichment work under any circumstances,' Araqchi said. 'But the level of enrichment can be discussed.' ... Araqchi said the next round of talks will be held in Vienna 'sometime between May 10 to May 20'. 'We don't want to sacrifice quality of the talks for its quantity. In the final deal, Iran's nuclear rights should be respected and our demand for lifting all sanctions should be respected,' Araqchi said. The six nations have agreed internally to have a draft text of an accord by the end of May or early June, one diplomat from the powers said. But he added: 'We're still in an exploratory phase ... In the end, things will happen in July.'" http://t.uani.com/1jqs3lr

Reuters: "Iran should continue talks with world powers to end a long-running nuclear dispute, but without ceding any of the gains made by its nuclear program, the Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader was reported as saying on Wednesday. Iran's negotiators should not yield to issues 'forced upon them', Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in remarks to nuclear scientists in Tehran, the official IRNA news agency reported. He added that Washington knew well that the Islamic Republic was not seeking a nuclear weapon. 'These negotiations should continue ... but all should know that negotiations will not stop or slow down any of Iran's activities in nuclear research and development,' he was quoted as saying. Iran had agreed to negotiate an end to the dispute 'to break the hostile climate created by the arrogant powers against Iran', he added, using a term Iran's leadership normally employs to refer to the United States and its Western allies." http://t.uani.com/1gL12ov

AP: "Iran is celebrating its National Nuclear Technology Day as talks with world powers over its contested program continue in Vienna. Marking the holiday Wednesday, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged negotiators not to give in to 'coercive words.' Khamenei, who has the final say on all state matters, also says the Islamic Republic won't stop its nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/1ix4EwK

AFP: "Iran's lead negotiator in nuclear talks with world powers said both sides were inching closer on some issues as they sought Wednesday to intensify discussions on reaching a definitive agreement before a July deadline. 'On certain questions we have narrowed our differences,' Abbas Araqchi told Iranian media late Tuesday after a first day of talks in Vienna that were expected to wrap up later Wednesday. The negotiations, aiming to settle a decade-old standoff and so avert a dangerous escalation, remained however 'difficult and complicated', Mehr news agency quoted Araqchi as saying. He gave no details. He added that the next round between Iran and five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany -- the fourth this year -- would take place in mid-May." http://t.uani.com/1sAe1CU

Reuters: "Iran is cooperating with U.N. nuclear inspectors seeking answers about detonators that could be used to help set off an atomic explosive device, part of a wider investigation into Tehran's activities, their chief said on Wednesday. Iran agreed late last year to grant inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) greater access to nuclear-related sites and to provide more information about its atomic programme, which it says is for purely peaceful purposes. Under the framework deal, Iran also agreed to start addressing suspicions that it may have worked on designing an atomic weapon - a potential breakthrough in a long-stalled investigation into suspected bomb research by Tehran. By mid-May, Iran is supposed to provide information to the IAEA about its need or application for the development of so-called Exploding Bridge Wire detonators. These fast-functioning detonators have some non-nuclear uses, but can also help set off an atomic device. Asked about implementation of the deal, IAEA director general Yukiya Amano said: 'We are working on it and they are cooperative.'" http://t.uani.com/1g7006Y

Free Beacon: "The former head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization revealed that Iran concealed information from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) because it believed intelligence agencies were using the reports to sabotage its nuclear program. Fereydoon Abbasi told the Iranian daily Khorasan that the West obtained its information from reports submitted by Iran to the IAEA as well as from foreign firms providing equipment used in Tehran's nuclear program. The interview is believed to be the first time that a former senior official in Iran has given details about sabotage and about Iran's subsequent concealment of information about its nuclear facilities. Abbasi said that Iran had for at least seven years withheld information about its construction of a heavy water reactor at Arak and the location and activity of the facilities workshops. The Arak facility is expected to be a principal subject in negotiations over Teheran's nuclear program between Iran and Western nations aimed at curtailing the program, which resume today in Vienna. The interview with Abbasi was published yesterday by the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI)." http://t.uani.com/1oM8VUF

Free Beacon: "Secretary of State John Kerry told a Senate committee Tuesday that the Obama administration is 'obligated under the law' to earn congressional approval of any nuclear deal with Iran in order for congressionally-imposed economic sanctions to be lifted. Kerry's comments suggest that the White House may have abandoned its effort, disclosed in January by the Free Beacon, to find ways to lift sanctions on Iran without the approval of Congress." http://t.uani.com/1ix20qR

AFP: "The United States on Tuesday asked North Korea to look at Iran's example, saying it was willing to negotiate with a hostile nation when it is 'serious' about its promises. Amid high tensions between North Korea and its neighbors, Deputy Secretary of State William Burns said that the United States remained firmly opposed to North Korea's nuclear weapons program but was open to diplomacy. 'We have consistently said we are willing to engage when countries show a credible and serious interest in abiding by their obligations. This was true in Burma, it's the case with Iran, and it can be the case with North Korea as well,' Burns said at the Asia Society in New York." http://t.uani.com/1hgNypl

Sanctions Relief

Al-Monitor: "Iran is seeing less economic benefit than it was promised from an interim nuclear accord, in part because foreign companies and banks are unwilling to risk re-engaging the Islamic Republic on a short-term basis. Al-Monitor has learned from an Iranian official, who spoke on condition that he not be named, that a major multinational company has refused an Iranian request for aircraft maintenance services - authorized by the Nov. 24 deal - on grounds that the company could not complete the work by the end of July. That's when implementation of the interim nuclear accord is due to expire unless it is renewed by Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1), or it is superseded by a longer-term deal. (The company is not Boeing, which recently received a license to provide spare parts and maintenance for planes sold to Iran before the 1979 revolution.) Iran's economy has stabilized somewhat since the interim accord was reached, but most of the benefits appear to have been psychological or have come from better management by President Hassan Rouhani's team compared to that of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad." http://t.uani.com/1hBpI2M

Free Beacon: "Senate insiders say that senior Treasury Department officials have been lying for years about their backroom efforts to oppose and dismantle Iran sanctions legislation that ultimately forced Tehran to the bargaining table over its illicit nuclear program. Top officials in the Treasury and State Departments are said to have staunchly opposed the 2011 passage of the sanctions legislation authored by Sens. Bob Menendez (D., N.J.) and Mark Kirk (R., Ill.), and even worked to dismantle key pieces of the bill after it was passed by the Senate in a 100-0 vote, according to senior Senate insiders who worked on the legislation. Treasury's role in the backroom negotiations over the bill were thrust into the spotlight earlier this month when Treasury Under Secretary David Cohen entered a heated exchange with Kirk over the administration's opposition to sanctions. Kirk, as well as Senate insiders who spoke to the Washington Free Beacon, said that Cohen was not truthful in his testimony and is attempting to rewrite history in a bid to whitewash the Obama administration's long opposition to tough Iran sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1eafyLT

Bloomberg: "OPEC, which supplies 40 percent of the world's oil, will accommodate additional output from members Iraq, Iran and Libya, Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said, without explaining how it will do so under the group's ceiling. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will wait until 2015 to discuss output targets with Iraq, which currently operates outside the production-quota system for each of the group's other 11 member countries, El-Badri told reporters today in Doha, Qatar. OPEC foresees gradual increases from Iraq and Iran, while Libya is capable of boosting output by as much as 1 million barrels within a month, he said. 'There is no problem for OPEC to absorb any production increment from Iraq and Iran in 2014,' El-Badri said. 'When Libya output comes back, we will accommodate it because its production is in our numbers.' ... Iran raised production to 2.9 million barrels a day last month, an increase of 65,000 barrels from February, the data show." http://t.uani.com/1qqL08H

Reuters: "A senior Iranian aviation official has arrived in Vienna to discuss lifting sanctions on the country's aviation sector as part of nuclear talks with world powers, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported. Sanctions on the sector have been in place since the 1970s... 'Managing director of Iranair Farhad Parvaresh is in Vienna to possibly discuss sanctions imposed on Iran's aviation (sector),' Fars said on Tuesday, without elaborating." http://t.uani.com/R2N1xR

Sanctions Enforcement & Impact

WSJ: "New York's top financial regulator has issued subpoenas to four U.S. insurers to determine if they have complied with U.S. laws against doing business with Iran, expanding a probe previously focused on foreign companies, people with knowledge of the matter said. The New York Department of Financial Services in recent weeks sent subpoenas to Chubb Corp., CNA Financial Corp., Liberty Mutual Group and Navigators Group Inc., the people said. The inquiries seek detail about marine-cargo policies the insurers had in place with a commodities firm that has figured into the long-running NYDFS probe, the people said. U.S.-based insurers, like most other domestic companies, are generally prohibited by U.S. law from business dealings that involve Iran. A subpoena is a legal demand for information and doesn't signal wrongdoing by the recipients. It isn't clear that any insurance policies issued by the four companies violated U.S. laws, the people said. Last year, New York Financial Services Superintendent Benjamin Lawsky sent information requests to more than 40 non-U.S. reinsurance companies requesting detailed information on their dealings with entities or people connected to Iran, as previously reported. Reinsurers take on responsibility for some claims from policies sold by insurers to businesses or individuals. The New York probe recently turned up evidence indicating the four U.S. insurers had issued marine-cargo policies for commodities firm Glencore Xstrata PLC allegedly tied to the Iran metals trade, the same people said. Similar coverage was a focus of the earlier probe involving the foreign reinsurers." http://t.uani.com/1ix3l0T

Syria Conflict

NYT: "Some in Syria are newly eager to catalog, as a show of strength, the added muscle from abroad, and not just from Hezbollah. A Syrian who coordinates between government forces and Hezbollah around the shrine said that Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards are not simply advising Damascus, but fighting near the northern city of Aleppo. Hezbollah and Iran, he said, have trained more than 100,000 Syrians, in Syria, Lebanon and Tehran, to form the National Defense Forces militias. On Tuesday, Iran delivered 30,000 tons of food supplies to Syria, The Associated Press reported. 'The game is changed,' the coordinator said, asking not to be identified for his safety. He confirmed much of what Western officials assert about the government's foreign support, calling it a trump card that Damascus saved for the right moment. 'It is no longer a secret,' he added. 'It is on the table.'" http://t.uani.com/1ejQQsO

Human Rights

IHR: "After a break in the executions on the occasion of the Iranian new year, the executions have resumed in Iran. One prisoner was hanged in Ardebil today and three other prisoners are scheduled to be hanged in the Baluchestan province in the near future." http://t.uani.com/1g6Yx0g

Opinion & Analysis

UANI Outreach Coordinator Bob Feferman in Algemeiner: "For two years, I have been doing outreach work around the country for the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). While I have heard all kinds of responses over the years, I recently heard a new expression for the first time: 'Iran fatigue.' One person told me: 'Many people have been reading and hearing so much about Iran's nuclear program that they don't want to hear any more.' Beyond my initial shock, I felt it was worth asking: who really suffers from 'Iran fatigue' - and what does it actually mean? There is no doubt that the families of the 140,000 dead Syrian civilians - and the two million Syrian refugees - are suffering from Iran fatigue. They know that were it not for Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxy Hezbollah, the regime of Bashar al-Assad would have fallen years ago and spared the lives of thousands. There is no doubt that the people of Israel also have serious Iran fatigue. They are sick and tired of being threatened with annihilation by Iranian leaders and frustrated with the world's inaction over Iran's incessant efforts to supply rockets and missiles to terror groups in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. There is also no doubt that Iranian human rights activists and their families - including journalists and members of the Baha'i faith - have serious fatigue from their own government. While they languish in prison, or are publicly executed on building cranes, indifferent corporate entities in the West, such as MTN and Atlas, continue to do business with the Iranian regime. Although an interim agreement called 'The Joint Plan of Action' was signed in Geneva between the P5+1 and Iran, we should not be fooled. Iran has not relinquished its quest to develop nuclear weapons. Indeed, Iran is still doing research and development on advanced centrifuges and its ballistic missile program, and still spinning centrifuges to enrich uranium. Therefore, we should not allow the charm offensive of Iranian leaders to crush our resolve, and spin us into 'Iran fatigue.' It's time to diagnose if you are truly suffering from 'Iran fatigue.' If you frequently send e-mail messages to companies demanding they end their business in Iran, you can rightly claim Iran fatigue, and you have our thanks and appreciation. If you have spent hours encouraging your members of Congress to impose new sanctions on Iran, or worked to pass debarment laws in your state, you too can rightly claim Iran fatigue, and you have our thanks and appreciation. However, if you have done none of the above, then it's time to think about the alternative. The disinterest among some Americans, particularly when it comes to holding well-known companies accountable for their Iranian business activities, has been surprising and disappointing to say the least." http://t.uani.com/1kKqm1M

Ali Afshari in Al-Monitor: "Much attention has been paid to conservative critics of President Hassan Rouhani. What has received little attention however is the state of internal divisions within Rouhani's Cabinet over both the subsidy programs and corruption at the Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organization. Understanding the main political leanings of Rouhani's Cabinet and a few of the disagreements that have surfaced is key to understanding how far his administration can, or will want to go in implementing cultural and political reforms and pursuing his foreign policy initiatives. Rouhani chose most of his personnel from the following three groups: his circle of close associates, members of the Executives of Construction Party (Kaargozaaraan), and traditional and pragmatic Principlists. He designed his Cabinet to be a mixture of representatives from different groups of people who voted for him. Yet he also wanted to keep his administration moderate and balanced by utilizing centralist forces that are somewhere in between the Reformist and the Principlists. Rouhani's circle of close friends and associates include people such as his brother and special assistant Hossein Fereydoun, Cultural Adviser Hesam al-Din Ashena, Spokesman Mohammad Bagher Nobakht, Chief of Staff Mohammad Nahavandian, Chief Adviser Akbar Torkan and Minister of Industry Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh. Most of them are members of the Moderation and Development Party. The party was founded by Rouhani in 1999. Their origin, like that of Rouhani himself, goes back to the right-wing faction of the Islamic Republic whose political and economic viewpoints were transformed after the Iran-Iraq war. They worked closely with Hashemi Rafsanjani's presidency during the so-called Construction Era. During the Reform Era of Khatami's presidency when cultural and political norms of Iran were shaken, they took a middle ground between the Reformists and the Principalists - but leaned closer to the to the Principalists. Even during Rafsanjani's presidency, they supported the administration as long as the new policies did not create conflict with the supreme leader. Certain members of this circle, such as Fereydoun and Ashena, have a background in the intelligence service. In general, they give priority to economic expansion and follow the free market model although a few of them, such as Nobakht, defend institutionalized economy and believe in a limited government interference in regulating the market. In the political and cultural arena, they believe in political activism only within the frameworks of the constitution and also believe in the idea of the guardianship of the jurist (velayat-e faqih). They only support limited political and cultural transformations. Kaargozaaraan are the left-wing supporters of Rafsanjani. Compared to the Moderation and Development Party, they have a more open-minded attitude toward cultural and political issues. Politically, Kaargozaaraan are part of the Reformist faction. They believe in collaboration and exchange between different forces in a civil society. Of course, not all reformist forces active in the Rouhani administration are from the Kaargozaaraan faction. Yet, Kaargozaaraan has a dominant presence. Forces connected to the Principlist faction, such as Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan, Justice Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi, Culture Minister Ali Jannati, and Interior Minister Rahmani Fazli, make up the third angle of Rouhani's administration. Rouhani has tried to use this diversity to expand support for his administration inside the country. However, this lack of harmony, and the internal rivalry, is problematic and has had a negative effect on the administration. The resignation of Reformist politician Mohammad Ali Najafi was the result of these internal rivalries and irresolvable conflicts. Najafi had tried to implement reforms when he was head of the cultural heritage and tourism organization and wanted to reveal previous corruption. However, Rouhani did not support this and there were speculations that he was prevented by cultural adviser Ashna, who's part of Rouhani's inner circle." http://t.uani.com/1lK91rg

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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