Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Eye on Iran: France Says Iran Must Budge on Centrifuges for Talks to Succeed








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Reuters: "Iran must drop its demands to have thousands of centrifuges used to enrich uranium if it wants a lasting deal with major powers over its disputed nuclear programme, France's foreign minister said on Tuesday. Highlighting a big gap in negotiating positions, Laurent Fabius told French radio that Iran should only have a few hundred centrifuges, machines that spin at supersonic speed to increase the concentration of the fissile isotope... 'We are still hitting a wall on one absolutely fundamental point which is the number of centrifuges which allow enrichment,' Fabius told France Inter radio. 'We say that there can be a few hundred centrifuges, but the Iranians want thousands so we're not in the same framework,' he said. It was not immediately clear whether he was spelling out the French position, or that of the six powers... 'Obviously, if the Iranians maintain their position, what is the purpose of having thousands of centrifuges if we're not heading towards an atomic bomb?,' Fabius said. 'So the question that will be asked in the coming weeks is whether Iran is really ready to accept to give up the atomic bomb or not.'" http://t.uani.com/1uQZlQ2

Reuters: "Iran's talks with world powers on curbing its nuclear programme in exchange for an end to sanctions could be extended for another six months if no deal is reached by a July 20 deadline, a senior Iranian official said. U.S. and Iranian officials held talks in Geneva on Monday to tackle ways of breaking a deadlock which has raised the likelihood that the deadline will lapse without a deal meant to head off the risk of a Middle East war over the nuclear issue... 'We hope to reach a final agreement (by July 20) but, if this doesn't happen, then we have no choice but to extend the Geneva deal for six more months while we continue negotiations,' Araqchi was quoted as saying by Iran's state news agency IRNA. 'It's still too early to judge whether an extension will be needed. This hope still exists that we will be able to reach a final agreement by the end of the six months on July 20.' ... U.S. State Department deputy spokeswoman Marie Harf said the 'wide-ranging' session ran for over five hours... 'We are at a critical juncture in the talks,' Harf said. 'We don't have very much time left. We think we've made progress during some rounds but as we said coming out of the last one we hadn't seen enough made, we hadn't seen enough realism.'" http://t.uani.com/1l416kV

WSJ: "Turkey and Iran signed several economic cooperation agreements and pledged to improve relations that have been fraught for years, largely because of deep differences over Syria and Iraq. The two-day visit by Iran's President Hasan Rouhani, who was elected in a landslide last year, was the first official visit by an Iranian leader in 18 years. It follows a trip in January by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Tehran, where he met Mr. Rouhani and Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and signed a preferential trade agreement. Ten deals were signed Monday in Ankara on energy and trade, including lucrative construction contracts for Turkish companies, aiming to double trade between the neighbors to $30 billion a year by the end of 2015. The Iranian president, who has sought to ease Tehran's international isolation with a foreign policy of 'prudence and moderation,' also pledged to work with Ankara to bolster regional security. He called the meeting a turning point in relations." http://t.uani.com/1jhWUOX
   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

AFP: "Senior Iranian and US officials held what Tehran's top negotiator dubbed 'constructive' talks on Monday, as Washington warned tough choices were needed for a lasting accord on Tehran's controversial nuclear programme by a July 20 deadline. The closed-door meeting in Geneva, due to last two days, marks a new effort to find common ground between Tehran and Washington, amid concerns that tensions between the two could damage efforts to strike deal between the Islamic republic and world powers. As the first day of talks drew to a close, Washington acknowledged that time was running out. 'We think we've made progress during some rounds, but as we said coming out of the last one, we hadn't seen enough made. We hadn't seen enough realism, quite frankly, on the table,' said deputy State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf. 'We know we don't have a lot of time left. That's why we've said diplomacy will intensify,' Harf said. 'People need to make tough choices, but we are very focused on that July 20th time.' Iran's deputy foreign minister and nuclear pointman Abbas Araqchi said Monday's dialogue 'took place in a positive climate and was constructive,' in comments carried by Iran?s ISNA news agency." http://t.uani.com/TEQzag

AFP: "German officials will visit Tehran on Sunday for talks on Iran's nuclear drive, top Iranian negotiator and deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said on Tuesday. The meeting will follow similar discussions with American, Russian and French negotiators this week ahead of the resumption of political talks between Iran and the main P5+1 group of world powers on Monday in Vienna. 'Mr Hans Dieter Lucas, the German representative at the P5+1 talks, will travel to Tehran to attend a seminar' organised by Iran's Foreign Ministry, Araqchi was quoted as saying by the official IRNA news agency. 'We will have bilateral nuclear talks with him' on the sidelines, said Araqchi who is in Geneva leading Tehran's negotiators in meetings with US counterparts." http://t.uani.com/1qnvEmQ

Sanctions Relief

Trend: "China National Aero-Technology Import& Export Corporation (Catic) has agreed to invest €2 billion in building a petrochemical plant in Iran. The two countries have signed an agreement in Beijing, based on which the Chinese company will invest €2 billion in building a petrochemical plant in Iran's southern province of Bushehr, Iran's Mehr news agency reported on June 10. All the construction operations will be carried out by Iranian companies and contractors." http://t.uani.com/1oQvnYP

Syria Conflict

Trend: "President Hassan Rouhani in a message addressed to his Syrian counterpart on Sunday congratulated him, the Syrian government and nation for Bashar al-Assad's re-election as president in that Arab republic's recent elections, IRNA reported. President Rouhani has in his message considered the successful holding of the presidential election in Syria as a sign of the success of the resistant Syrian people's will for determining their own fate both today and in the future. 'While expressing my satisfaction with the occurrence of this significant and hope-inspiring event, which is in line with democracy, I hereby congratulate this victory to the Syrian nation and your good self wholeheartedly,' wrote Rouhani. President Rouhani has also expressed certainty that the result of the Syrian presidential election shows both that nation's trust in President Assad and their will for progress towards stability, security and national solidarity. 'I am quite sure that relying on your honor's broad vision, Syria will pave its path towards peace, stability, and national unity. Meanwhile, Syria will leave behind the crisis that has been imposed against it safe and sound and relying on evermore participation of the people it will mightily and resolutely pave its path toward national unity and re-construction of the Syrian economy,' he added." http://t.uani.com/1q05c5s

Human Rights

Guardian: "More than 140 Iranian journalists have called on authorities to release Saba Azarpeik, who was picked up last month from the offices of a magazine in Tehran and is currently being held incommunicado. Azarpeik, who has written for various reformist publications including Etemaad daily, has been outspoken about the state's treatment of journalists and opposition figures. She was arrested while working in the offices of Tejarat-e-Farda, a Tehran-based reformist weekly. In a statement seen by the Guardian, a group of Iranian journalists protested against her arrest, saying it was against the Islamic republic's own constitution and human rights treaties to detain her for merely doing her job... Azarpeik was particularly outspoken on her Facebook page, which has been taken offline since she was detained. In recent years, she has drawn a great deal of attention by covering the case of the Iranian blogger Sattar Beheshti, whose death in custody brought embarrassment for the Islamic republic and its cyber police." http://t.uani.com/1khJp1n

Venture Beat: "U.K. resident Roya Nobakht was visiting Iran a few months ago. While there, she visited and posted on a Facebook page - one that Iran's religious leaders don't like. Now she's in prison serving a 20-year term, and her family fears for her life. Nobakht, a naturalized British citizen who lives in Manchester, was visiting family in the Iranian city of Fars when she was arrested. She has been in Tehran's notorious Evin prison ever since. A family member told VentureBeat she had been brutalized, beaten, and raped... 'She loves Facebook and uses it a lot to keep in touch with her family,' our source told us. 'She had a laptop with her and was posting some jokes. Nothing really. But I really don't know because nobody will tell me anything.' ... As it has done previously, Facebook said it had no comment. When told that Facebook had declined speak on the situation, the family member expressed sadness. 'Roya loves using Facebook,' the source said. 'This is just terrible.'" http://t.uani.com/1kMoJU7

Domestic Politics

Al-Monitor: "At a meeting with Iran's Chamber of Commerce, Culture Minister Ali Jannati warned that the government's initial rejection of new technologies and later acceptance was causing the country to fall behind. At the informal breakfast meeting, Jannati also criticized the blocking of popular social media websites, jamming satellite stations and the lack of tolerance of officials toward opposing views... 'In social media and the virtual world, we still do not know if we are supposed to block Viber and WhatsApp or not,' said Jannati, referring to a quarrel between the administration and the judiciary, which ordered that the websites be blocked. Jannati said, 'There was a time we had problems with video. There was even a time we had issue with the fax machine.' ... Most of the top officials in Iran have official or semiofficial social media accounts, including Facebook, Twitter, Google+ and Instagram. Since these websites are blocked, Iranian users must access them through proxies. 'Apparently we have to confront every new phenomenon and after time has passed, then accept it,' Jannati said. 'We always want to have a 20-year distance with the world. Let's at least move along with the world.'" http://t.uani.com/1oQv2oJ

Foreign Affairs

Reuters: "President Hassan Rouhani, whose country's relations with Turkey have been strained by the Syrian civil war, said in Ankara on Monday Iran would make tackling extremism, sectarian conflicts and terrorism its chief objective... 'Instabilities exist in our region ... Iran and Turkey are determined to increase their cooperation to establish stability in the region,' Rouhani said after talks with President Abdullah Gul in Ankara. The Fight against violence, extremism, sectarian conflicts and terrorism is IranĖˆs major objective,' he added." http://t.uani.com/1n3tCWO

Opinion & Analysis

Shahrzad Elghanayan in NYT: "The nouveaux riches in Tehran drive Porsches, Ferraris and Maseratis and live in multimillion-dollar luxury apartments replete with walk-in closets, Bosch appliances and computerized shower systems. I was stunned when I caught a glimpse of what Iran's megarich can afford - on, of all things, a program made by Press TV, an English-language news organization sponsored and monitored by the Iranian state. It was not just the wealth that struck me, but how freely Iran's one percenters' flaunted the symbols of Western decadence without fear of government retribution. Thirty-five years after a revolution that promised an egalitarian utopia and vowed to root out gharbzadegi' - the modern Westernized lifestyles of Iran's cosmopolitans - how have some people become so rich? Much of Iran's wealth, it turns out, is in the hands of the very people in charge of maintaining social justice. Hard-line clerical leaders, together with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (the branch of Iran's military in charge of protecting the country's Islamic government), have engineered a system where it is largely they, their family members and their loyal cronies who prosper. When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei became supreme leader in 1989, he built his own system of patronage by building a network with the I.R.G.C.,' said Alireza Nader, an Iran expert at the nonpartisan RAND Corporation and an author of its report The Rise of the Pasdaran: Assessing the Domestic Roles of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.' Saeed Ghasseminejad, an economist, and the political scientist Emanuele Ottolenghi, writing in The Wall Street Journal, estimated that the Revolutionary Guards Corps controls about 20 percent of the market value of companies traded on Tehran's stock exchange, across the telecommunications, banking, construction, metals and mining, automotive and petrochemical sectors. Mr. Nader said the corps was also involved in sanctions-busting and the smuggling of alcohol and drugs into Iran, both forbidden under Islamic law. The corps also runs large parts of the economy. Since 2006, Al-Monitor reported, it has been awarded at least 11,000 development projects, from construction and aerospace to oil and gas. Khatam al-Anbiya, a company that acts like the United States Army Corps of Engineers on the construction of roads, bridges and public works, subcontracts to firms owned by businessmen with connections to the Guards... A recent Reuters investigation of Ayatollah Khamenei's economic empire found that Setad, a foundation ostensibly set up to help the poor but controlled by the supreme leader without oversight, is worth $95 billion. Part of its modus operandi is to appropriate real estate, allegedly by claiming - often falsely - that it is abandoned. According to Mr. Ottolenghi and Mr. Ghasseminejad, Ayatollah Khamenei also controls three of the 10 banks listed on the Tehran stock exchange... A lack of reliable data makes it difficult to pin down how many Iranians live below the poverty line. A Budget and Planning Parliamentary Commission member, Musalreza Servati, stated earlier this year that 20 percent of the population (about 15 million people) was poor, while the Financial Times estimated it was 35 percent, based on research by Hossein Raghfar, an economics professor at Alzahra University in Tehran. The government-set poverty line for a family of four is a meager $720 a month. The pro-reform economist Saeed Laylaz recently told Al-Monitor that The purchasing power of 40 percent to 50 percent of the Iranian citizens has been reduced to the subsistence level.' In February, millions stood in line for food handouts. With inflation running at nearly 34 percent, families can't keep up. The average family makes $600 a month in urban areas and $339 in rural areas, according to the Statistical Center of Iran. Even a university degree does not improve chances for mobility. In April, Bloomberg News reported that monthly starting salaries for graduates rarely exceed $500. One in four Iranians under 29 was jobless, Forbes reported last year... Foreign companies are waiting for sanctions to end to enter Iran and make their own profits. But before restoring those economic ties, the Islamic Republic's leaders should normalize relations with its own citizens. Last week, a court dismissed a grievance filed by workers about the inadequacy of the minimum wage. Besides encouraging entrepreneurs like Mehrdad, Mr. Rouhani needs to give working people a break. That also means rooting out the corruption that has left Iran's poor and youth behind." http://t.uani.com/1nvuDIX

Phillip Smyth in WINEP: "On May 22, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was recruiting Afghan Shiite refugees to fight in Syria, promising them a salary of $500 per month as well as Iranian residency papers. The article noted that reports of funerals for such fighters began to emerge in November 2013, and that they had originally been recruited to offset losses among IRGC operatives in Syria. Yet the phenomenon of Afghan Shiite combatants fighting on Bashar al-Assad's side is hardly a new development, and their increased involvement in the war merits closer scrutiny given the potential implications for Syria and the future of Iran's regional and sectarian ambitions. As early as October 2012, elements associated with the opposition Free Syrian Army claimed to have captured an Afghan Shiite fighter named Mortada Hussein. He was later interrogated by the rebels on a short YouTube video clip. The presence of other such fighters became a more regular and public subject beginning in spring 2013, around the time that Lebanese Shiite jihadist group Hezbollah announced it had deployed forces to Syria. Subsequently, opposition and regime social media circulated unconfirmed images of uniformed Afghans posing together and holding weapons. In many cases, their faces -- which tended to be ethnically distinct -- were clearly shown, and the fighters were described as 'martyrs.' Yet these fallen Afghans were never named. In July 2013, however, a martyrdom poster emerged naming Safer Muhammad as one of the Afghans who had been killed. The gold-framed poster featured the flags of Hezbollah, the Syrian regime, and Afghanistan. The Afghan Shiites fighting in Syria have come from three main sources. First is the contingent already residing in Syria before the war, a number of whom lived near Sayyeda Zainab, a prominent Shiite shrine located south of Damascus. According to researcher Ahmad Shuja, some 2,000 Afghan Shiites, mainly belonging to the Persian-speaking Hazara ethnic group, took up residence in Syria before hostilities broke out. As with Hazara refugees in other countries, many of them had fled Afghanistan after suffering regularly at the hands of the Taliban. Yet once the war started, many were once again reportedly targeted for attacks based on their sectarian identity, quickly becoming internally displaced persons. Some of them joined the fighting; for example, Ali Salehi, a Hazara reportedly residing in Syria, was killed during hostilities in the Damascus area. Fighters from this refugee population appear to have followed an organizational model similar to Liwa Abu Fadl al-Abbas (LAFA), the main pro-regime Shiite brigade in Syria. LAFA's original core consisted of Iraqi Shiite refugees from the Sayyeda Zainab area who assembled in a popular-committee format; their avowed justification for fighting was to defend the Shiite shrine. Iranian-backed recruits and trained fighters from established organizations such as Asaib Ahl al-Haqq (AAH), Kataib Hezbollah, and Lebanese Hezbollah later helped expand the brigade and build its combat abilities. A second contingent of Afghan Shiite fighters hails from Iran; according to Iranian government-backed newspapers and Afghan Shiite sources, they are the largest such contingent. Many of these recruits were originally refugees in Iran, which is home to around half a million Hazaras; a 2010 Stimson Center report noted that a third of these refugees 'have spent more than half their life in Iran.' Public funerals held in the Islamic Republic in November-December 2013 indicate that Afghan Shiite fighters came from cities throughout the country, including Isfahan, Mashhad, Tehran, and Qom. One young 'martyr,' Reza Ismail, had attended Iran's University of Mashhad, and a photo reportedly taken in Syria showed him holding an M4-type carbine. Apparently, he was beheaded by Sunni jihadist rebels. A third and more debatable source of Afghan Shiite fighters is refugee populations in countries other than Iran and Syria. In April 2013, officials in Afghanistan announced that they would look into reports of Afghan nationals fighting for Assad. And just last month, Kabul called on Tehran to not recruit its nationals to fight in Syria. If direct Iranian recruitment were proven, Kabul threatened to file a complaint with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Yet real evidence of direct recruitment in Afghanistan has yet to surface. In another case, an unnamed fighter pictured holding a PKM machine gun was claimed to be an Afghan Shiite refugee who had been granted asylum in Australia before joining the war in Syria. But this claim has not yet been proven." http://t.uani.com/1pANwej

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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