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Politico:
"President Barack Obama's exhaustive lobbying effort with Capitol
Hill Democrats is paying off: The party is giving him major breathing
room to finish nuclear negotiations with Iran. Senate Democrats, led by
Iran hawk Robert Menendez of New Jersey, said Tuesday that they will give
Obama two months to reach a deal on the country's nuclear program before
they vote for new sanctions. At the same time, House progressives are
urging their colleagues to hold off on moving any legislation that would
tighten economic penalties on Iran. Menendez led a group of at least 10
Senate Democrats who told the president in a letter Tuesday morning that
they will not support final passage of a sanctions bill until March 24.
That will allow the U.S. and other Western powers time to reach a
framework for a deal scaling down Iran's nuclear program... In the
letter, obtained by POLITICO, the Democrats defended the forthcoming
sanctions legislation as 'reasonable and pragmatic' given that the
economic penalties would kick in only if negotiators fail to reach a
final agreement by June 30." http://t.uani.com/1yx40pf
The Hill:
"Sens. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) on Tuesday
evening unveiled their bill to impose new sanctions on Iran if
international negotiators fail to reach a deal by June 30 on Tehran's
nuclear program. Fourteen other senators co-sponsored the the Nuclear
Weapon Free Iran Act of 2015 -- eight Republicans and six
Democrats: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), and Sens. Chuck
Schumer (D-N.Y.), Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.),
Dan Coats (R-Ind.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Joe
Manchin (D-W.Va.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), Ted
Cruz (R-Texas), Bob Casey (D-Pa.), Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and Roy Blunt
(R-Mo.). Additional co-sponsors will be added this week, Menendez's
office said. If all 54 Republicans vote for the bill, they would need at
least 13 Democrats to override the president's veto threat. The
administration has threatened to veto any Iran sanctions bill, warning
that such legislation could derail the delicate talks." http://t.uani.com/18ugXuU
Reuters:
"Iran has told the United States that an Israeli air strike which
killed an Iranian general in Syria last week had crossed 'red lines' and
the Islamic Republic will respond, a senior official was quoted as saying
by IRNA news agency on Tuesday. 'We told the Americans that the leaders
of the Zionist regime should await the consequences of their act,' deputy
foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said... 'In this message to the
Americans we said that the Zionist regime had crossed our red lines,'
Abdollahian said. Abdollahian said Iran delivered the message to U.S.
officials via diplomatic channels... Abdollahian's warning echoed those
of Iran's Basij force commanders at a ceremony on Tuesday honoring
Allahdadi. 'The Zionists should know that they are approaching their
destruction. They should be fully prepared because they will not have
peace any more,' Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi said according to
ISNA news agency." http://t.uani.com/1y59I2t
Nuclear
Program & Negotiations
Free Beacon:
"Senior officials in the Obama administration admitted to Congress
on Tuesday that the Iranian regime continues to conduct key nuclear research
despite ongoing negotiations with the United States meant to curb
Tehran's contested program. When asked during testimony before the Senate
Banking Committee about Iran's continued research into key nuclear
technologies, the officials said that Iran is 'tinkering' with advanced
technologies to enrich uranium, a key nuclear fuel. Asked by Sen. Richard
Shelby (R., Ala.), the committee's chairman, whether the 2013 interim
agreement with Iran has significantly halted Iran's pursuit of advanced
nuclear know-how, Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken said that Iran
is most likely still conducting limited research at several of its
nuclear sites. 'You're absolutely right, that there's no doubt Iran is
seeking to continue other [work on] centrifuges,' Blinken said. 'But
under the agreements it can't do the critical kind of testing' needed to
make great advances. 'Are they tinkering with centrifuges and trying to
build them in some places? Almost certainly,' Blinken said. 'But that's a
little more than tinkering,' Shelby responded. 'They continue to pursue
their goal.'" http://t.uani.com/1z2O0ka
Terrorism
Al-Monitor:
"It is no longer a secret that there has been swift rapprochement
between Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. The crowning move would be for Khaled
Meshaal, head of Hamas' political bureau, to visit Tehran for Hamas to
completely return to the Axis of Resistance. What is new in the
relationship between Hamas and Hezbollah is what Hezbollah
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah announced on TV on Jan. 15 regarding
Hamas' having serious intentions to redress its relationship with
Hezbollah and Iran. Nasrallah said this decision was a central one taken
by the Hamas leadership locally and abroad, and that bilateral relations
have come a long way. Nasrallah's tone in talking about Hamas left a
positive impact on the movement, knowing that this reconciliatory
discourse did not emerge overnight. It was rather the fruit of a series
of meetings between Hamas and Hezbollah in Beirut, during which Hezbollah
felt that Hamas was seriously willing to thaw out the frozen relations
between the two over the Syrian issue. The coming days might hide other
positive steps in favor of the rapprochement. The increased rapprochement
between Hamas and Hezbollah has given Hamas breathing space, allowing it
to partly come out of the political isolation imposed on it in the past
months, following the boycott with Egypt, the Qatari-Gulf reconciliation
and pressure applied on Turkey for hosting Hamas officials." http://t.uani.com/18uflS6
Human Rights
Reuters:
"Iran will allow foreign women watch men play volleyball when it
hosts an international championship this year, but Iranian women will
still be banned, the state news agency said on Wednesday. Iran's Islamic
law bars women from watching men playing sports such as volleyball and
football and an Iranian-British woman was sentenced to a year in jail
last year for protesting outside a volleyball venue... As Iran prepares
to host the 2015 Asian Men's Volleyball Championship, it said some women
would be let in to a specially created women's section at Tehran's
12,000-person arena." http://t.uani.com/15ItBVB
WashPost:
"A Washington Post journalist detained in Iran for more than six
months will stand trial 'soon,' Iran's official news agency reported
Wednesday, but the charges against him remain unknown. The report by the
state-run Islamic Republic News Agency gave no additional information
about Iran's allegations against Jason Rezaian, the Post's bureau chief
in Tehran. Rezaian, a dual American-Iranian citizen, also has not had
access to legal counsel since his detention in late July. 'We have yet to
hear any accounting of any charges against Jason, who after six months in
custody has still not been provided access to a lawyer,' said a statement
from Martin Baron, the Post's executive editor. 'It is appalling and
outrageous that Jason remains behind bars. A fair and just approach by
Iran's judiciary could only result in his immediate release.'" http://t.uani.com/1Eq4Ps8
Domestic
Politics
CSM:
"Iranian officials are adamant that the precipitous drop in global
oil prices that has slashed domestic spending across the oil-producing
world will not bring the country to its knees. But the latest state
budget reintroduces a controversial program to sell exemptions from
mandatory military service - an indication of just how hard the
oil-dependent economy has been hit by falling prices and years of
sanctions over its nuclear program. Indeed, for President Hassan Rouhani,
the economic hit comes amid delicate nuclear negotiations, and makes the
potential economic boon from any deal that much more attractive. Military
exemptions haven't been sold in more than a decade, and critics say the
policy risks deepening a social divide in Iran between haves and have-nots."
http://t.uani.com/1Da5ZUC
Opinion &
Analysis
UANI Executive
Director David Ibsen in the Orlando Sentinel: "With
negotiations over Iran's illicit nuclear program having recently resumed,
supporters of the seemingly never-ending negotiating process - one that
has disproportionally favored Iranian interests - continue to spin the
original interim agreement and its subsequent extensions (the Joint Plan
of Action) as a success. This false assertion rests on the propagation of
several myths, notably that the JPA has frozen Iran's nuclear program;
the Iranian regime negotiating team represents a moderate faction
distinct from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Supreme Leader and
other regime hardliners; and U.S. pressure and negotiating leverage has remained
constant throughout the process. The primary underpinning myth is the
notion that the JPA has frozen - even rolled back - Iran's nuclear
program. Like every myth, the account of Iran's 'frozen' nuclear program
is easy to refute by looking at the evidence. Throughout the JPA process,
Iran has continued to conduct extensive nuclear research and development
including research on enhanced centrifuge technological capabilities - so
it can enrich better and faster. Indeed, since the signing of the JPA, Iran
has not dismantled even a single centrifuge. The second key myth concerns
the depiction of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani as a moderate. A decade
after his deceptive stewardship of Iran's nuclear negotiating team in
2003, Rouhani's stance is no less uncompromising. For example, Rouhani
has stated that, not under any circumstances would Iran destroy any of
its existing centrifuges. And in response to a question over the
dismantlement of nuclear facilities, Rouhani said, 'One hundred percent
[no].' Rouhani has also failed to prove himself a 'moderate' at home. In
two recent reports, the United Nations has documented the alarming spike
in executions, cases of torture and unremitting intolerance to dissenting
political views and religious diversity under Rouhani. His record, when
viewed in concert with his nearly four-decade friendship with Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, leads to one conclusion: Rouhani is clearly no 'moderate.'
The third key myth of the JPA originated in November 2013 when the JPA
was first struck. In the aftermath of the agreement, some claimed that
sanctions pressure would continue to mount since existing sanctions would
be vigorously enforced. In fact, both the number of sanction designations
and the rate of implementation have fallen dramatically. In the six
months before Rouhani's election, there were 183 new Iran-related
designations. In the 18 months since his election, there have been only
104. Moreover, despite promises by President Obama to 'come down on these
companies like a ton of bricks,' a staggering number of Western companies
are conducting talks with Iranian entities with impunity. In 2014, London
hosted the inaugural Europe-Iran Forum, which explicitly cited the
prospect of a new business climate between Europe and Iran, a momentous commercial
opportunity. Incredibly, some even claimed that Iran would be 'even
deeper in the hole ... when the deal expires ...' and that economic
pressure would increase. The sanctions relief provided to Iran under the
JPA was also characterized as 'insignificant' since it would total only
$6 billion to $7 billion... As sanctions pressure diminishes, Iran sits
comfortably in the driver's seat, happy to extend the JPA indefinitely
while benefiting from extensive relief. It may be comforting to wrap the
JPA in a shroud of mythical success, but the facts tell a much different
and troubling cautionary tale." http://t.uani.com/1zXO71N
Ariel Levite in
Arms Control Today: "Taking stock of the interim
results, the United States must reorient its diplomatic efforts to
confront the likely shortcomings of the achievable deal and prepare a
fallback in the event that Khamenei does not ultimately come through. For
both scenarios, it must urgently contemplate complementary steps that the
parties to the negotiations, the UN Security Council, and the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could take to build confidence
that Iran's future nuclear program will be exclusively peaceful... First,
the P5+1 must profoundly understand and address the consequences stemming
from conceding to Iran an operational capability of several thousand
older, operating centrifuges and continuing research, development, and
production of more-modern units. The existence of such a capability in
Iran defies any peaceful-use logic, but is ideal to support a nuclear
weapons application. Iran has no need for fuel for the Bushehr reactor,
its single functioning nuclear power reactor, which is solely powered by
Russian-provided fuel; has no relative advantage in uranium enrichment;
and lacks the economy of scale to justify uranium enrichment. Moreover,
the size of the enrichment operation under consideration is far too small
to provide fuel for even a modest nuclear energy program. Yet, it is
perfectly adequate for a military one. Thus, any acceptance of uranium
enrichment in Iran, let alone its expansion on the grounds of supporting
its ostensibly peaceful nuclear program, must be conditioned on Iran's
prior accession to and full implementation of the Convention on Nuclear
Safety. Among the major elements of this treaty are its requirements for
an independent nuclear regulator, periodic reporting to the IAEA, and
peer reviews. Iran also must be expected to join the only international,
legally binding undertaking in the area of physical protection of nuclear
material, the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material.
As with the safety convention, Iran and North Korea are only nonratifiers
among countries purporting to use nuclear energy for peaceful
purposes. In the same vein, Iran must join forthwith one of the
modern international conventions regulating nuclear liability or, at a
minimum, pass legislation anchoring their standard principle.
Furthermore, if the duration of Iran's obligations to abide by key
fuel-cycle aspects of a future agreement is shorter than the total
duration of an agreement, Tehran should be expected to peg the scale and
specifications of its future fuel-cycle activities to the requirements
posed by the actual construction of new power plants. Last but certainly
not least is the challenge of putting in place a credible verification
and enforcement regime for Iran for the long term. This requires far
closer coordination of the P5+1 with the IAEA than has been the case to
date in order to make sure the IAEA develops the legal basis and
operational capabilities to apply such a uniquely rigorous verification
regime to declared and undeclared activity in civilian and military sites
and is provided with the requisite resources to sustain it well into the
future. Iran's willingness to apply these measures will serve as a
critical bellwether of its reorientation of the nuclear program toward
peaceful pursuits. A final agreement with Iran that does not include
these provisions would be extremely risky and ill advised unless there was
confidence by the P5+1 and tacit Iranian understanding that these
shortcomings would be offset by incorporating these measures, as
appropriate to each body's mandate, in complementary actions by the UN
Security Council, IAEA Board of Governors, and U.S. Congress...
Ultimately, the United States must finally lay out a realistic Plan B to
enhance the prospects of securing a credible deal soon and to avoid undue
escalation if such a result proves elusive. Such a plan would require
that the United States profess genuine willingness to walk away from the
negotiating table while holding Iran to its obligations under the
November 2013 Joint Plan of Action and tightly enforcing existing
sanctions, but honoring its part of the bargain by not going beyond the
existing sanctions. Also, the United States would have to put Iran on
notice that failing to meet its obligations under the joint plan or
making meaningful progress in sensitive nuclear areas not presently
covered by that document would result in the immediate imposition of
harsher sanctions. Iran should be reminded that the Obama administration
has not ruled out military action if Tehran takes concrete steps to
acquire a nuclear device. Congress should be encouraged to provide
authorization for the imposition of additional sanctions and other
coercive measures if these circumstances arise. Capitol Hill might
require the administration to provide quarterly certification that a
vigorous monitoring effort is in place and that Iran remains in
compliance with these requirements." http://t.uani.com/1CMpmVX
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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