Eye on Iran: Iran, Europe Negotiators to Meet Thursday in Istanbul

Join UANI           Top Stories AFP: "Iranian officials will meet with European members of the P5+1 group in Istanbul on Thursday under the ongoing diplomatic effort to secure a deal over Tehran's disputed nuclear programme. The meeting with British, French and German diplomats was announced by Iran's foreign ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham during a weekly press briefing in Tehran. The EU, which has chaired the P5+1 talks, said separately that its political director Helga Schmid would also attend... Zarif meanwhile was quoted by an Iranian newspaper Wednesday as saying there was a 'general agreement that Iran could have a nuclear enrichment programme, no sites will be closed and sanctions should be lifted'. 'But the discussions are continuing on the level of enrichment, on when Iran will begin industrial scale enrichment and how nuclear research and development will be done,' he told Etemad daily. The future of a heavy water reactor at Arak in central Iran is also to be resolved, Zarif added." http://t.uani.com/1DcaKwY Reuters: "Iran's newly appointed U.N. ambassador is set to receive a U.S. visa so he can take up that key post, diplomatic sources said on Wednesday, likely removing a major strain on Tehran's tense relations with Washington. Washington had infuriated Iran's leadership last year by rejecting its previous appointee as head of its sole diplomatic mission on U.S. soil over his suspected role in a 1979-81 hostage crisis. Iran's state-run Tasnim news agency carried an official announcement on Wednesday that Iran had appointed career diplomat Gholamali Khoshrou, whose surname is also spelled Khoshroo, as its United Nations envoy. But it did not say whether he had been approved by Washington. Several diplomatic sources, including a senior Iranian official, told Reuters on condition of anonymity it was almost certain that Khoshrou, a U.S.-educated veteran diplomat with close ties to the reformist camp of former president Mohammad Khatami, would be approved by the United States. An Iranian official told Reuters that the appointment had already been discussed at a senior level by U.S. and Iranian officials prior to the Iranian announcement." http://t.uani.com/1Kb0ZBP Bloomberg: "When the Senate Banking Committee debates and almost certainly approves a new bill to increase pressure on Iran Thursday, some Republican senators are set to try and make the legislation's sanctions tougher. It's a risky strategy that could jeopardize fragile Democratic support and complicate future attempts to overcome President Barack Obama's threatened veto... Senate Banking Committee Chairman Richard Shelby told me that he expects Republicans to change the bill during Thursday's markup process to make it stronger. In his view, the bill should move out of committee now because he doubts the Obama administration will make progress with Iran between now and the next deadline in late March. 'The stronger the sanctions, the clearer the message to Iran. The sooner the better. Why delay it?' Shelby said, adding that he was skeptical of the current talks in Geneva. 'I hope something substantive comes out those negotiations, but I'm not holding my breath.' A senior senate aide shared with me a list of the proposed amendments that had been filed for Thursday's markup, and there were over a dozen amendments filed by conservative Republicans David Vitter, Pat Toomey and freshman Tom Cotton. Different proposed amendments would mandate sanctions be imposed sooner, remove or alter the president's waiver authority, require that Iran dismantle its nuclear infrastructure, make it more difficult for the administration to take countries off the state sponsors of terrorism list, assert Congressional support for Israel's right to defend itself, and mandate a Congressional vote on the deal." http://t.uani.com/1v9mUbb     Nuclear Program & Negotiations Reuters: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's scheduled speech to the U.S. Congress in March could damage the Obama administration's attempts to broker a deal with Iran on nuclear weapons development, the senior U.S. House of Representatives Democrat said on Wednesday. 'Such a presentation could send the wrong message in terms of giving diplomacy a chance,' said Representative Nancy Pelosi during a news conference on the sidelines of an annual retreat for Democratic lawmakers. But Pelosi stopped short of saying that the invitation to Netanyahu should be withdrawn by House Speaker John Boehner. Earlier this month Boehner invited Netanyahu to speak to a joint session of the House and Senate and the speech is scheduled for March 3, just two weeks before the Israeli leader stands for re-election on March 17." http://t.uani.com/15VmQzA Terrorism AP: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday said that Iran is to blame for a deadly flare-up along the Israeli-Lebanese border the previous day, the deadliest escalation in the disputed zone since the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel. The violence erupted when the Lebanese militant Hezbollah group on Wednesday fired a salvo of anti-tank missiles at an Israeli military convoy in the disputed area, killing two soldiers and wounding seven. Israel responded to the missiles with shelling. A Spanish peacekeeper with the U.N. force in southern Lebanon was also killed... 'It is Iran that is responsible for yesterday's attack against us from Lebanon,' Netanyahu said. 'We will continue to defend ourselves against all threats, near and far alike.' ... 'This is the same Iran that is now trying to achieve an agreement, via the major powers, that would leave it with the ability to develop nuclear weapons, and we strongly oppose this agreement,' Netanyahu said referring to the negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/1A2fTtP Human Rights IHR: "Two prisoners were hanged in two different Iranian cities today, reported the Iranian state media. The official Iranian news agency IRNA reported that a man was hanged in public early this morning in the town of Golpayegan (Central Iran). Several thousand people were gathered at the scene of the public executions." http://t.uani.com/15VpF3H IranWire: "Archbishop Desmond Tutu, the South African anti-apartheid hero who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1984, is one of five Nobel laureates to endorse the new Education Is Not A Crime campaign. His fellow laureates - Dr Shirin Ebadi, Mairead Maguire, Jody Williams, and Tawakkol Karman - have also lent their voices to a global cause on behalf of the persecuted Baha'i religious minority in Iran. 'The Iranian government says that education is a crime for Baha'is,' Archbishop Tutu said. 'We can tell the government of Iran, and the world, that banning the Baha'is or any group from higher education is hurting Iran and the Iranian people.' The endorsements come ahead of a high-profile event, Education and its Discontents, to be held in Los Angeles on 27 February. The event is part of the Education Is Not A Crime campaign, launched in 2014. The campaign raises awareness of the situation for Baha'is in Iran, and, in particular, their deliberate exclusion from the Iranian higher education system." http://t.uani.com/1uEUIqL  Domestic Politics Rudaw: "In a second case of corruption in a week, a number of MPs in Iran have asked the speaker of parliament to name 170 former candidates who allegedly funded their election campaigns through illegal channels. The Fars News Agency reported on Wednesday that 30 MPs have asked parliament speaker Ali Larijani to reveal the names of the candidates, who received money from a businessman during former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's second term. The scandal broke when former vice president Mohammad Reza Rahimi, who is serving a five-year prison term for corruption, said in a letter on Tuesday that he had funded the campaigns of parliamentary candidates. Rahimi alleged that he had dispensed 1.2 billion tomans, donated by a certain businessman." http://t.uani.com/1ErZOzd IranWire: "Chaos broke out at the Tehran Stock Exchange on January 21 as news emerged that the market's index had fallen into further decline. Investors, alarmed by the falling index, rushed to the floor to sell their shares - and then to voice their dissatisfaction and frustration. Amid the shouting and broken glass - several traders smashed glasses on the floor in protest - investors demanded the government take action, and many called for the resignation of the head of Tehran's Securities and Exchange Organization. The market was in danger of collapse, they said, and their investments were at risk. Someone had to do something. In less than three months, the Tehran Stock Exchange Index has fallen by 15 percent, from 76,850 in October to 65,055 as of January 21. Shifts in prices mean a reduction in the value of stocks and, over the last weeks, smaller investors have been holding their breath, watching as their life savings diminish... Due to ongoing government intervention, misinformation and high levels of corruption, activity in Iran's stock exchange activity is distorted and extremely volatile." http://t.uani.com/18yCN0z Opinion & Analysis UANI Advisory Board Member Michael Singh in Foreign Affairs: "The Iranian nuclear negotiations have proven divisive enough within the United States and among the United States and its allies. But the bigger story is the wedge they have exposed between factions in Iran. The administration of U.S. President Barack Obama and some of its partners in the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) see Iranian President Hassan Rouhani as a critical partner, one with the potential to deliver a long-sought nuclear compromise and a broader rapprochement with the West. Skeptics in the United States and abroad, on the other hand, see Rouhani as little more than an Iranian hard-liner pretending to play nice. Both views, however, miss the larger drama. There is indeed a fundamental divide within the Iranian regime-with Rouhani leading one side-but it has less to do with Iran's nuclear program or regional strategy than with the more basic question of how best to preserve the regime itself... Viewing this internal struggle from afar, American policymakers might be tempted to align themselves with Rouhani and conceive of the nuclear negotiations not as pitting Iran against the international community but as pitting Western and Iranian negotiators against 'hard-liners' on both sides. But Washington should be wary of pinning its hopes on Rouhani's camp, much less on influencing the regime's internal struggle. It is impossible to know whether a nuclear agreement will empower Rouhani and his allies or prove the end of their usefulness for the regime; although Khamenei has lent qualified support to the country's nuclear negotiators, he appears far less enthusiastic about Rouhani's broader agenda. Rouhani's authority is limited not only by his ability to deliver on his campaign pledges but also by the considerable sway of hard-liners, especially over Iran's regional policies and internal security. Further, even if Rouhani's stock does rise in the wake of an agreement, it is far from clear that this would benefit the United States. Rouhani's supporters remain committed to the survival of Iran's regime, as well as to a security strategy in the Middle East that is at odds with U.S. interests. Indeed, following a nuclear deal, Washington and its allies may find themselves facing an Iran that is enriched, empowered, and no less committed to regional hegemony. In light of this, American policymakers should not offer additional concessions on the theory that a nuclear deal will yield ancillary security benefits. Indeed, if the United States and its allies wish to obtain not just a lasting nuclear accord but also a broader shift in Iranian strategic thinking, it will have to persuade the whole regime-not just one faction of it-that the status quo is unsustainable. This will require persuading Iranian leaders that failing to reach an agreement is a price too high to pay." http://t.uani.com/1CCQ3wa Emily Landau in TNI: "A clear-headed assessment of the P5+1-Iran nuclear negotiations over the course of 2014 would be hard-pressed to make the case that things are looking up. Let's face it, even the best case scenario of the P5+1 at this point is a far cry from what they were demanding of Iran only a short while ago. Instead of squarely confronting Iran with the evidence of its cheating and deception per its NPT commitment not to work on a military capability, and insisting on massive dismantlement of Iran's nuclear infrastructure because Iran cannot be trusted, the international negotiators have limited themselves to a deal that they hope will physically keep Iran twelve months away from the ability to break out to its first nuclear device. And this is gift wrapped in the message that after a certain amount of time, Iran will be able to fully resume its nuclear activities, and even significantly expand its nuclear program. This set-up dangerously ignores the fact that there is absolutely no indication that Iran has backed away from the military aspirations that the United States, its European allies and many other states are quite certain that Iran harbors. Even with regard to this limited and certainly not comprehensive goal, things are not going well. Iran has refused to budge from its insistence on maintaining its quick breakout capability, so if it has agreed to anything at all with regard to P5+1 demands, it is the absolute minimum, and nothing that would undermine this capability. In fact, over the past year, Iran has been very vocal about everything it will not do: it will not dismantle centrifuges, nor will it close problematic facilities; indeed, Iran wants to significantly expand its nuclear program. Iran refuses to discuss the weaponization activities it is suspected of having carried out, and it has been stonewalling on the requests of the IAEA in this regard. Iran blatantly ignored an August 25 deadline that the IAEA set for Iran to answer only two to three questions on its list. Iran also refuses to discuss its vast ballistic-missile program, because according to Iran, these delivery mechanisms are 'non-nuclear.' ... In the face of this intransigent Iranian stance, it is the P5+1 that have been making offers of concessions and softening their demands. They have accepted that Iran will continue to enrich uranium and are no longer insisting on closing down Fordow and Arak. They refuse to press Iran on weaponization, even though this is their strongest card for demanding dismantlement of Iran's program. The United States in particular is projecting an eagerness for a deal that is undermining its leverage at the bargaining table. Iran has no reason not to remain defiant while holding out for more concessions, because it has learned that this tactic works. If there is a deal by late June 2015, it will most likely reflect even greater P5+1 concessions, with Iran remaining a dangerous threshold state. Within this very problematic dynamic, Congress is working on new legislation to impose more sanctions on Iran if a deal is not reached by late June, and another bill that would require the administration to submit a pending deal with Iran to Congress for hearings and a vote. The goal of Congress is to keep the pressure on Iran, as the only means of possibly 'convincing' this dangerous proliferator to adhere to the P5+1 demands. But President Obama has said he will veto the legislation, just like he threatened last year. At that time, even facing the president's charge that they are 'warmongers,' Senators acquiesced to Obama's request to first give diplomacy a chance. The president assured them that if the talks did not produce a deal, he would be the first to come to Congress to ask for their help in imposing new sanctions. But even though the talks did not produce a deal-and things are going badly at the table-the president has not only not come asking for help, but he has once again castigated Senators for supporting the new sanctions legislation. This time he has accused them of following the narrow interests of their donors, while declaring that they will be directly responsible for the breakdown of negotiations, and for opening the door for everyone to blame the United States for this development. It is difficult to believe that these statements are being made in earnest-because if the P5+1-Iran negotiations break down, it will be because of Iran, the dangerous and defiant proliferator that has barely budged, not only over the past twelve months, but over the past twelve years. It will be the fault of Iran's harsh and uncompromising leadership, who has no interest in a deal that would undermine Iran's ability to move to nuclear weapons at a time of its choosing. And if the upshot of twelve years of negotiations with Iran is a bad nuclear deal, it will be the fault of the international negotiators that were unable to convey to Iran the firm message that they had no intention of backing down from their legitimate demands, or of acquiescing to Iran's nuclear threshold status; the same negotiators that went so far as to try to blame Congress for their own failings and shortcomings." http://t.uani.com/1BucFLd         Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.