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AP:
"The Senate plunges into a high-stakes debate this week over
empowering Congress to review and possibly reject any nuclear deal with
Iran, offering Republican presidential candidates a chance to prove their
hawkishness toward Iran and support for Israel. Sen. Marco Rubio of
Florida wants to add a provision requiring the Obama administration to
certify that Iran's leaders have publicly accepted Israel's right to
exist, a nearly impossible mandate. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas isn't
satisfied with the bill's process in which Congress could disapprove of
the deal. He and Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania want lawmakers to
approve the final deal. Proponents of the bill are trying to discourage
any changes to the legislation that has the tacit approval of President
Barack Obama. They recognize that politically-driven amendments could
undermine Democratic support and sink the carefully crafted measure.
'Anybody who monkeys with this bill is going to run into a buzz saw,'
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a possible White House
candidate, warned ahead of this week's debate. Amendments and full debate
begin Tuesday. Also trying to caution against changes, Democratic Sen.
Bob Menendez of New Jersey urged senators to stick with the plan as it
emerged from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee." http://t.uani.com/1b6BLcB
Reuters:
"Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif will meet U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry at the opening of a UN conference on the
global anti-nuclear weapons treaty on Monday, as they try to make
progress in talks on a long-term atomic deal. Iran's top diplomat will be
the first state party to the 1970 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to
address its 190 signatories at the United Nations headquarters in New
York on behalf of 118 non-aligned nations that have signed the NPT, the
world's benchmark disarmament pact. Zarif and Kerry will meet on the
sidelines to discuss negotiations on a landmark nuclear deal with the
United States and five other global powers as they try to secure a final
agreement with Iran by a June 30 deadline... Israel, which opposes the
nuclear deal with Iran, will be attending the conference as an observer
for the first time since 1995 as it eyes closer ties with Arabs, who also
fear Tehran's nuclear ambitions." http://t.uani.com/1A5Aj0V
AFP:
"The commander of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards accused Saudi
Arabia of treachery Monday, saying the bombing of Yemen had put the
kingdom in the same camp as arch foe Israel. The remarks, by General
Mohammad Ali Jafari, are a further sign of deteriorating relations
between Tehran and Riyadh, after recent heavy criticism by Iran's supreme
leader and other top officials... Jafari urged Iranian officials to put
aside past considerations and speak out against the kingdom, following
its air strikes in Yemen. 'Today, treacherous Saudi Arabia is stepping in
the footsteps of Israel and the Zionists. This wasn't the case in the
past and right now the Islamic revolution's opponents are becoming
clearer,' the official IRNA news agency quoted him as saying... 'Today
the Saudi dynasty is on the verge of decline and fall,' he said,
asserting that Iran was in the ascendancy. 'Everyday we are witnessing
the strengthening of the Islamic revolution's power and dimensions
outside. Enemies and America have submitted to it.'" http://t.uani.com/1z5M5Nm
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
Reuters:
"Nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers are making good but
slow progress as they work toward a June 30 deadline for a final deal,
Tehran's senior negotiator said on Friday... Iran, which denies seeking
nuclear weapons, has said sanctions must be lifted as soon as any final
deal is signed. The United States wants a gradual lifting of
restrictions. 'The progress is good... We are at preliminary stages and
the pace is slow but it is good,' Iranian state television quoted
negotiator Abbas Araqchi as telling reporters in Vienna. 'The Europeans
and Americans made good clarifications about lifting of the sanctions,'
he said, adding that drafting of the text had begun." http://t.uani.com/1JBAOVk
Press TV (Iran):
"Production of 20 tons of heavy water in the Arak nuclear reactor
has solidified Iran's position as a member of the 'world's nuclear club',
the AEOI chief says. Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran
(AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi made the comments on national television on
Saturday night. 'We took great steps in designing and redesigning the
Arak reactor,' Salehi said, noting that Iran is now among the few
countries that can produce heavy water, which he called a 'strategic
product.'" http://t.uani.com/1EJgvYx
Trend:
"Some 220 members of the Iranian parliament urged the negotiators
not to violate red lines in the Iran-P5+1 nuclear talks. A statement
issued by the MPs notes the appreciation for the Supreme Leader,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for his support and urging negotiators to observe
red lines in nuclear talks, Iran's Fars news agency reported on April 22.
'In the final agreement, no supervision beyond the NPT should be accepted
by the country. Research and development in technology, enrichment, and
nuclear sciences should not be restricted,' said the statement." http://t.uani.com/1JCI3MJ
Sanctions
Relief
Reuters:
"Poland's largest oil refiner PKN Orlen has delivered a gas
condensate cargo of Iranian origin for its Mazeikiai refinery in
Lithuania, traders said on Friday. It's not clear if PKN has violated
international sanctions against Iran by supplying the cargo. The company
declined immediate comments. Traders said that the 122,000-tonnes cargo
was shipped to the port of Butinge." http://t.uani.com/1z5KbMY
Bloomberg: "The end to Iran's international isolation is attracting
more than just energy firms. Carmakers, aircraft and tobacco producers
also make the list of companies that analysts from Natixis Securities SAS
to Jefferies LLC say may invest in the nation if the April 2 agreement
with world powers results in an end to penalties over its nuclear
program... Here are 12 stocks that analysts say investors should keep an
eye on as Iran is brought back into the international fold." http://t.uani.com/1bw0Cai
Press Trust of
India: "Government plans to set up a urea plant in
Iran to ensure long term availability of the fertilizer here, Chemicals
and Fertilizers Minister Ananth Kumar said today. 'In order to ensure
long term avialability of urea in the country, the government is
facilitating setting up of a urea/ ammonia joint venture project in Iran
with capacity to produce 1.3 million tone urea for import to India,' he
said in Rajya Sabha. A consortium of Indian companies -- Rashtriya
Chemicals and Fertilizers, Gujarat State Fertilizers and Chemicals and
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizer and Chemicals -- have appointed SBI
Caps for advisory and due diligence services to identify a prospective
Iranian JV partner. 'The project is in a consultation stage to identify
an Iranian JV partner,' Kumar said in a reply during Question Hour."
http://t.uani.com/1bw42tT
Press TV (Iran):
"A group of German businessmen is visiting Iran for a second time in
months to explore opportunities for investment amid hopes of sanctions
relief for the Islamic Republic. The delegates, led by Volker Treier,
Deputy CEO of the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and
Industry, have met with senior Iranian officials in Tehran. After a
meeting with Iran's Chamber of Commerce, Treier said Germany will
continue to explore business opportunities in Iran regardless of the
outcome of Iran's nuclear talks with global powers. 'What's important for
us is to benefit from any opening too boost trade transactions with
Iran,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1z5XJrE
Trend:
"More than 1.13 million cars were produced in Iran in the past
Iranian fiscal year, which ended on March 20. Sedan cars output stood at
958,335 in the mentioned period, a 53 percent rise year on year, Iran's
IRIB reported on April 19. Iran also produced 150,929 pickup trucks,
20,239 trucks, 482 buses, and 179 minibuses in the 12-month period.
Peugeot Pars was the sedan with the highest production, so that 147,742
Peugeot Pars sedans were produced. Peugeot 405, Peugeot 206, Pride, and
Tiba sedans ranked the next with 117,403 sedans, 104,150 sedans, 129,729
sedans, and 85,359 sedans, respectively." http://t.uani.com/1dalTaM
Yemen Crisis
NYT:
"Pentagon officials on Friday credited the deployment of an American
aircraft carrier group in waters off the coast of Yemen for a decision by
Iran to turn back a naval convoy suspected of carrying weapons bound for
Shiite rebels. Although it was unusual to dispatch such a large American
naval force to the Arabian Sea on an interdiction and deterrence mission,
Pentagon officials said the deployment - and Iran's apparent response -
had lowered tensions in the continuing regional proxy war between Tehran
and Saudi Arabia. The nine-ship Iranian convoy had turned north and east
near the coast of Oman, in the direction of Iran, Defense Department
officials said. Col. Steven H. Warren, a Pentagon spokesman, said, 'We do
not know their future intentions,' but added that 'it's fair to say that,
yes, this appears to be a de-escalation of some of the tensions.'" http://t.uani.com/1PM15Ey
Al-Monitor:
"The head of Iran's Basij sent a message congratulating the Yemeni
rebel group, the Houthis, for their 'resistance' against the nearly
monthlong Saudi Arabian-led bombing campaign. The letter from Mohammad
Reza Naghdi was addressed to Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, whom
Nagdhi referred to as 'the brave commander of Ansar Allah, brother
warrior.' Naghdi called the end of the 28-day bombing campaign 'a great
victory' and 'congratulated the champion nation of Yemen, especially you,
the brave and wise leader.' Naghdi wrote, 'Without a doubt this brave
resistance will be considered a turning point in the history of the
region and the Islamic world and will have great transformations in the
political geography of the world in favor of the oppressed.' ... Kahyan
newspaper published an article April 23 stating: 'With defeating the
invading Saudis, who were fighting as proxies for America and the Zionist
regime, the Yemeni revolutionaries humiliated the invading coalition.'"
http://t.uani.com/1bBgR6F
Human Rights
WashPost:
"In an appearance on CNN's 'Reliable Sources' with Brian Stelter on
Sunday morning, Washington Post Executive Editor Martin Baron said the
paper is doing everything to free its reporter in Tehran, who has been in
prison for nine months. Baron has been rallying for the release of The
Post's Tehran bureau chief Jason Rezaian, who has been charged with
espionage and other crimes, including collecting classified information.
'There has been no evidence provided by the Iranian government that he
engaged in espionage or did anything other than report on what was
happening in that country,' Baron said... Rezaian's imprisonment came up
at the White House Correspondents' Association dinner Saturday night,
with President Obama saying the government would not rest until the
journalist is freed... 'For nine months, Jason has been in prison in
Tehran for nothing more than writing about the hopes and fears of the
Iranian people,' Obama said. The president told the room full of
reporters, many of whom were donning 'Free Jason' pins, that he had
spoken with Rezaian's brother, Ali, who was at the dinner.'I have told
him personally that I will not rest until we bring him home to his
family, safe and sound,' Obama said." http://t.uani.com/1Gp9S8u
Reuters:
"Iran's hardline judiciary has banned a magazine for encouraging
cohabitation, known as 'white marriage' in the Islamic Republic where sex
outside wedlock is a crime, the Shargh newspaper reported on Monday.
Under Iran's sharia-based laws, imposed after the 1979 Islamic
revolution, extramarital sex is punishable by flogging. In cases of
adultery, it can carry a sentence of death by stoning. Last year, the
monthly Zanan-e Emrouz (Today's Women) published a special issue
discussing various aspects of the 'white marriage' and the reasons behind
what it said was the increasing number of unmarried Iranian couples
living together. 'The press watchdog banned Zanan-e Emrouz monthly today
for encouraging and justifying white marriage,' Shargh reported... While
disapproving of cohabitation, Iran allows the traditional Shi'ite
temporary marriage or 'sigheh', under which a couple can contract a
marriage lasting anywhere from a few minutes to 99 years. Iranian rights
activists have criticized this option as disrespectful of women." http://t.uani.com/1Ed3H9o
Opinion &
Analysis
Soner Cagaptay,
James F. Jeffrey & Mehdi Khalaji in NYT: "The
announcement last month of a preliminary agreement between the United
States and Iran has led some to believe that Tehran will now enter the
international system as a responsible actor. But such optimism ignores
the fact that Iran's current government still bears the imprint of a long
imperial history and longstanding Persian regional ambitions. Iran is a
revolutionary power with hegemonic aspirations. In other words, it is a
country seeking to assert its dominance in the region and it will not
play by the rules. Yet, the Obama administration hopes a nuclear
agreement will have a 'transcendental effect' on Iran and convince it to
abandon its imperial aspirations in return for a sense of normalcy... In
the wake of this ruin and chaos, the post-World War II order led by the
United States established rules for the international community that
sought to keep such powers in check. Even today, countries with hegemonic
tendencies, like China, acknowledge the legitimacy of this international
order. Iran, however, has brazenly defied this international order and
continues to expand its reach. It uses an assortment of terrorism,
proliferation, military proxies, and occasionally old-fashioned diplomacy
to further its dominance. Although the 1979 Islamic revolution led by
Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini is often cited as the beginning of the Iran's
imperial worldview, Iran's hegemonic aspirations actually date back to
the Safavid Dynasty of the 16th century... In 1979, the anti-American
leaders of the revolution fused their nationalist claims of past Persian
glories with a millennial ideology to create a single Islamic state
militancy. However, after the bloody and protracted Iran-Iraq war in the
1980s, the Islamic Republic realized that conventional military doctrine
would no longer suffice. In conjunction with Tehran's doctrine of
'exporting the revolution' to nearby Muslim countries, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps developed asymmetric
warfare tactics aimed at building Iranian influence through sectarian and
political alliances. In doing so, Iran often acted as the guardian of the
broader Shiite community in places such as Bahrain and Yemen. Iran has
established a carefully crafted network of Shiite militias: Lebanon's
Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis and Iraq's Badr Corps, among others. Moreover,
Iran controls the Shiite clerical establishment and financial networks
throughout the Middle East. Iran is not bound exclusively by sectarian
politics. It has also befriended belligerent Sunni actors across the
Middle East to bolster its regional status. To this end, Tehran has
developed strong ties with Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Iran has even
made inroads into Sunni Sudan, which they have used to transport weapons
to Gaza. At times, Iran does not care for Muslims, or even Shiites - in
the southern Caucasus, Iran has allied itself with Christian Armenia against
the Shiite-majority Azerbaijan, which is pro-American. Ultimately, it is
not religion but imperial ambition that drives Iranian foreign policy...
In February 2013, Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader and the
ultimate decision maker in areas of foreign and military policy, called
the negotiations with the West a deceptive trick, proudly adding: 'I am
not a diplomat. I am a revolutionary.' Ayatollah Khamanei will blame Mr.
Rouhani if the negotiations fail or move in a direction that he does not
like. His legitimacy stems from the Iranian revolutionary project, and
any compromise would be an admission that he does not believe in that
narrative of world history. Iran's imperial ambitions are not new. Under
the Safavids, the Shah and the mullahs alike, Tehran has vied for
regional domination. Do not expect Iran to compromise its principles any
time soon." http://t.uani.com/1QADSX6
Sue Mi Terry &
Max Boot in Foreign Affairs: "The case of North
Korea clearly exposes the dangers of the United States seeking a nuclear
agreement with a state that has no intention of abiding by one. The 1994
U.S.-North Korean Agreed Framework, which called on North Korea to freeze
the operation and construction of nuclear reactors, collapsed within a
decade of its signing. In 2006, North Korea conducted its first nuclear
test, and today it is a full-fledged nuclear power. The United States'
experience with North Korea should make it wary of similar nuclear
negotiations, especially with Iran. In the past month, however, some have
argued the opposite: that the United States' experience with North Korea
should lead it to make even greater concessions to Iran, and to continue
making such concessions even after an accord is signed. According to this
line of thinking, the United States did not do enough to ensure the
success of the Agreed Framework-and so will need to do more to buttress
the Iran accord... History tells a different story. Under the Agreed
Framework, signed on October 12, 1994, Pyongyang agreed to freeze its
plutonium production program in exchange for an American-led consortium
providing ten years' worth of heavy-oil deliveries and the construction
of two electricity-generating light-water nuclear plants. (North Korea
hid its real motive for wanting nuclear plants-to gain geopolitical
clout-with a purported need for electrical power. Iran uses the same
rationale for its nuclear program.) Although North Korea did freeze its
plutonium program in 1994, it simply began pursuing the enrichment of
uranium instead. Between 1990 and 1996, the Pakistani government, through
the nuclear physicist Abdul Qadeer Khan, supplied North Korea with key
data on uranium enrichment in exchange for missile technology. In 2005,
former Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf publicly acknowledged that
Khan had provided centrifuges and their designs to North Korea. In short,
North Korea was cheating both before and after the signing of the Agreed
Framework. It did so in spite of the copious benefits flowing to the
country as a result of South Korea's Sunshine Policy, through which, from
1998 to 2008, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and his successor, Roh
Moo-hyun, pumped approximately $8 billion in economic assistance into
North Korea in the hope of improving bilateral relations. Kim Dae-jung even
won a Nobel Peace Prize for meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong
Il in 2000-a summit, it was later divulged, that was made possible only
through the payment of a $500 million cash bribe to Kim Jong Il. In
October 2002, North Korean officials brazenly admitted to a visiting
American delegation that North Korea had been covertly enriching uranium
and had no intention of discontinuing its nuclear work. Bush was already
skeptical of North Korea, which he had labeled part of the 'axis of
evil,' and this revelation confirmed his views. Even so, to prevent North
Korea from breaking out of its nuclear obligations, the United States,
together with China and other states, launched the six-party talks, which
resulted in Pyongyang agreeing once again, in 2005, to abandon its
nuclear program. Yet North Korea went ahead and tested a nuclear weapon
in 2006... It takes a willful denial of reality to claim, as Gallucci,
Wit, and Delury do, that the United States was at fault for the breakdown
in U.S.-North Korean negotiations. A dispassionate reading of the
evidence suggests that North Korea was never serious about giving up a
nuclear program into which it had invested decades-not to mention
billions of dollars-and that it saw as vital to regime protection and
internal legitimacy. If North Korea has not developed as many nuclear
weapons as U.S. intelligence agencies once feared, that is most likely a
side effect of the regime's dysfunction rather than any lack of desire to
acquire more weapons. The parallels with Iran are not comforting. If Iran
is anything like North Korea, it will seek to gain the benefits of a
deal-notably, the lifting of sanctions-without truly ending its nuclear
program. Keeping Iran in check will require verification procedures more
strict than those imposed on North Korea. But there was little sign of
such procedures in the framework agreement negotiated in Lausanne. In
fact, shortly after the deal was announced, Iran's supreme leader,
Ayatollah Khameini, said that Iran would never accept unfettered
inspection of its military facilities. And even if Iran does eventually
accept stricter oversight, the United States will have to commit to
holding the country to account instead of simply offering extra
concessions in a futile bid to get it to live up to its original
promises, as it did with North Korea. Only then will the lessons of the
Agreed Framework truly have been learned." http://t.uani.com/1KnPCrJ
WSJ Editorial:
"Even China is now raising flags about nuclear proliferation.
Beijing helped Pakistan get the bomb in the 1980s and has been North
Korea's patron from one Dear Leader to the next. But in February Chinese
officials warned a group of Americans that Pyongyang has many more
nuclear warheads than previously believed: up to 20 already, perhaps 40
by next year. The new Chinese assessment, reported Thursday by the
Journal, is based on updated intelligence concerning North Korea's
ability to enrich uranium. The North Koreans had no such capability when
they signed the 1994 Agreed Framework with the Clinton Administration,
which required them to stop their nuclear-weapons efforts. But Pyongyang
cheated on that deal, not least by developing a uranium-enrichment
program first acknowledged to the Bush Administration in 2002. The North
Koreans tested their first bomb in 2006 and were later discovered to be
building a secret nuclear facility in the Syrian desert, which was
destroyed by Israeli warplanes in 2007. The Bush Administration rewarded
this behavior with a new nuclear deal-which Pyongyang again violated by
testing bombs in 2009 and 2013. That's the depressing record of
Washington's last diplomatic attempt at stopping a rogue regime from
acquiring nuclear weapons, and we only wish that it had proved to be
instructive. Yet the deal the Obama Administration is now negotiating
with Tehran looks to be incorporating the same mistakes. The Iran deal
also has many more moving parts, making it considerably more difficult to
enforce. Last time around it was relatively easy to tell when the North
was breaking its promises. Iran is also a much richer, more
technologically sophisticated and strategically influential country than
North Korea. At least Pyongyang doesn't have the kind of control over its
neighbors that Tehran enjoys in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Iran and
North Korea have extensive diplomatic and military ties, with Pyongyang
helping supply the Iranians with ballistic-missile technology and,
according to news reports, hosting Iranian scientists at its nuclear
tests. Nobody should rule out the possibility that a portion of
Pyongyang's growing stockpile-to say nothing of the know-how that goes
into building it-may someday come into Iranian hands. Which is a stark
reminder that the consequences of misbegotten arms-control with one
dictatorship are rarely limited to that dictatorship." http://t.uani.com/1bw8fh4
Mortimer Zuckerman
in WSJ: "President Obama has been chasing a rainbow
in his negotiations with Iran. He has forsaken decades of pledges to the
civilized world from presidents of both parties. He has misled the
American people in repeatedly affirming that the U.S. would never allow
revolutionary Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, which would guarantee a
new arms race. In fact, one has already started. Credible reports suggest
Pakistan is ready to ship an atomic package to Saudi Arabia, the Sunni
nation that stands opposed to Shiite Iran's subversion throughout the
region... How far Mr. Obama is prepared to chase the negotiation dream is
illustrated by the recent candor of his energy secretary, Ernest Moniz, a
nuclear physicist who has been party to the negotiations. In 2013 the
president answered questions about Iran's ability to produce nuclear
weapons with these words: 'Our assessment continues to be a year or more
away, and in fact, actually our estimate is probably more conservative
than the estimates of Israeli intelligence services.' Yet on Monday Mr.
Moniz told reporters at Bloomberg a different story: 'They are right now
spinning. I mean enriching with 9,400 centrifuges out of their roughly
19,000,' he said. 'It's very little time to go forward. That's two to
three months.' How long has the administration held this view? 'Oh, quite
some time,' Mr. Moniz replied. The Bloomberg report suggests 'several
years.' This stunningly casual remark was based on information apparently
declassified on April 1. What is Mr. Obama up to? Why was he reassuring
in 2013 when he knew it was misleading? Is the declassification intended
to create a false sense of urgency? Compare where we are today with the
conditions Mr. Obama laid down two years ago... So here we are at the end
of the rainbow, seemingly willing to concede nuclear capacity to Iran, a
country we consider a principal threat. No wonder Saudi Arabia and Egypt
are insisting on developing equivalent nuclear capabilities. America's
traditional allies have concluded that the U.S. has traded temporary
cooperation from Iran for acquiescence to its ultimate hegemony. The
sanctions that brought Iran to the negotiating table took years to put in
place. They have impaired Iran's ability to conduct trade in the global
market. The banking freeze in particular has had a crippling effect,
since international businesses will not risk being blacklisted by the
U.S. and European Union to make a few dollars in Iran. Many of those who
have studied the problem believe that if the sanctions were to remain,
they would squeeze Tehran and force greater concessions. President Obama
seems to be willfully ignoring Iran's belligerent behavior and its
growing influence over Beirut, Damascus, Baghdad and Yemen's capital,
San'a. Free of sanctions, Iran may become even more assertive. There are
no rainbows ahead, only menacing clouds." http://t.uani.com/1JKyagh
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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