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NYT:
"Secretary of State John Kerry signaled for the first time on
Tuesday that the United States was prepared to ease economic sanctions on
Iran without fully resolving evidence suggesting that Iran's scientists
have been involved in secret work on nuclear weapons. In his first State
Department news conference since breaking his leg last month in a
bicycling accident, Mr. Kerry suggested major sanctions might be lifted
long before international inspectors get definitive answers to their
longstanding questions about Iranian experiments and nuclear design work
that appeared aimed at developing a bomb. The sanctions block oil sales
and financial transfers. 'We're not fixated on Iran specifically
accounting for what they did at one point in time or another,' said Mr.
Kerry, who appeared by video from Boston. Instead, he said: 'It's
critical to us to know that going forward, those activities have been
stopped, and that we can account for that in a legitimate way. That
clearly is one of the requirements in our judgment for what has to be
achieved in order to have a legitimate agreement.' ... Those favoring
full disclosure of what diplomats have delicately called the 'possible
military dimensions' of Iranian nuclear research say that the West will
never know exactly how long it would take Iran to manufacture a weapon -
if it ever developed or obtained bomb-grade uranium or plutonium - unless
there is a full picture of its success in suspected experiments to design
the detonation systems for a weapon and learn how to shrink it to fit
atop a missile." http://t.uani.com/1CdDnsT
AP:
"Iran and six powers are still apart on all main elements of a
nuclear deal with less than two weeks to go to their June 30 target date
and will likely have to extend their negotiations, two diplomats tell The
Associated Press. Their comments enforce concerns that obstacles to a
pact remain beyond the public debate on how far Iran must open its
nuclear program to outside purview under any deal... Negotiators are
concerned about a lack of headway on all issues. Russian chief delegate
Sergey Ryabkov said Friday the 'the rate of progress ... is progressively
slowing down.' Negotiators have been meeting five days a week in Vienna
over the past few weeks. The two diplomats are familiar with the progress
of the talks and spoke shortly before a planned five-day round reconvened
Wednesday... Ways of implementing specific parts of the deal are supposed
to be contained in four or five annexes to the main text of an agreement.
The diplomats described the draft of a main document as a patchwork of
text and dozens of blank spaces because of stubborn disagreement on up to
10 elements crucial to any deal. Those details are to be included in four
or five annexes, which remain incomplete. Both sides remain publicly committed
to June 30. Still, the diplomats said all nations at the table recognize
that a delay up to July 8 is not a deal-breaker. If U.S. Congress
receives a deal by July 8, it has 30 days to review it before U.S.
President Barack Obama could suspend congressional sanctions.
Postponement beyond that would double the congressional review period to
60 days, giving both Iranian and U.S. opponents more time to work on
undermining an agreement." http://t.uani.com/1GOwUKn
IHR:
"In the absence of international reactions the Iranian authorities
have executed one person every two hours in June 2015. Iran Human Rights
(IHR) calls for immediate international reactions to stop the
mass-executions ongoing in Iran. Official Iranian media has reported
about the execution of 27 people yesterday and today. According to the
website of the Iranian State Broadcasting, Jam News, 25 prisoners were
hanged in the Rajaishahr prison of Karaj (west of Tehran) Tuesday morning
June 16. 'Most of the prisoners were convicted of drug related charges'
said the report which called the prisoners 'criminals and drug
traffickers'... Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, the spokesperson of IHR said:
'The number of executions in Iran is unprecedented in the last 20 years.
So far in June the Iranian authorities have executed 12 people each day,
while the international community continues its meaningful
silence.'" http://t.uani.com/1dKhBH0
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
AFP:
"The end of June deadline for a nuclear deal between Iran and world
powers is not sacred and extra time may be necessary, a top Iranian
negotiator said on Tuesday... Abbas Araghchi, a deputy foreign minister
and key member of Iran's team, hinted the final talks may overrun, having
already said that progress on drafting the deal has recently been very
slow... 'The date... was selected for the end of negotiations but we will
not sacrifice a good agreement for the sake of the schedule,' he was
quoted as saying on state television's website. 'If we need a few extra
days it's not important because there are no sacred dates,' he said of
the talks with the United States, Britain, China, France, Russia and
Germany." http://t.uani.com/1GeZHmC
Tasnim (Iran):
"The economic embargoes imposed on Iran over its nuclear program
will be entirely terminated immediately after a possible final agreement
between Tehran and world powers comes into force, top Iranian negotiator
Abbas Araqchi underlined. 'On the very day the implementation of
the deal begins, all of the economic and financial sanctions against us
will be lifted,' Araqchi told IRIB on Tuesday night, before departing
Tehran for Vienna for a new round of nuclear talks. 'The day when the
agreement is implemented, it will be announced on the very same day that
all nuclear-related economic and financial sanctions ... will be
nullified,' he stressed. Among those sanctions, he explained, are the
ones on oil, gas, petrochemical products, banking, insurance, shipping
and gold. Araqchi, however, drew a distinction between the day when a
possible deal will be reached and the day when it will come into force,
citing certain technical and legal processes and the fact that the
parliaments of the parties to the nuclear talks might seek to review the
agreement." http://t.uani.com/1GOyFXX
AP:
"Two weeks before negotiators hope to reach a nuclear agreement with
Iran, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations tried to reassure
Congress that sanctions could be easily re-imposed on Tehran if it
cheats. Rep. Ed Royce, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee,
said lawmakers fear that Russia and China, which have veto authority as
permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, would make it difficult
to snap sanctions back into place for non-compliance. Samantha Power told
the House Foreign Affairs Committee that she couldn't go into detail
about what kind of snap-back mechanism would be in place at the United
Nations. But she said the U.S. and its partners will 'not allow snap-back
to be left in the hands of Russia or China.'" http://t.uani.com/1KZ8IXh
Tasnim (Iran):
"Foreigners will never ever be allowed to have access to Iran's
military sites under any circumstances, a top Iranian officer
underscored. 'We reiterate that foreigners will definitely not be
permitted to have access to the (Iranian) military centers in any way,
even if it contradicts accepting the Additional Protocol (of the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty),' Deputy Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed
Forces Brigadier General Massoud Jazayeri said Sunday. The Armed Forces
have a duty to safeguard the Islamic Republic's security and interests,
he added, arguing that any foreign access to the country's military sites
or information would run counter to the country's security and public demands.
Jazayeri's remarks echo earlier comments by Supreme Leader of the Islamic
Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, who stressed in May that Iran
will not allow the inspection of its military sites." http://t.uani.com/1BgNmm8
IRNA (Iran):
"Iran's Permanent Representative in the International Atomic Energy
Agency Reza Najafi said the US intelligence services are forging
documents against Iran. Talking to reporters here on Thursday, he said
the claims about Iran's forbidden activities in Marivan were also based
on this kind of documents. Commenting on the baseless allegations about
the military aspects of Iran's nuclear program, he said Iran certainly
rejected the whole issue. Iran has repeatedly said such documents are
faked and forged by the American intillgence services against Iran's
peaceful nuclear program, he stressed." http://t.uani.com/1INEQLj
Sanctions
Relief
Reuters:
"Iran's transport minister said on Tuesday there was about $80
billion worth of business up for grabs in his sector, including the
renewal of the country's air fleet, but warned France it risked missing
out unless it changed its stance toward Tehran... All sides are seeking a
deal by June 30 that would reward Iran with relief from international
sanctions, meaning it could soon collect debts from overseas banks that
may exceed $100 billion. That has prompted an Iranian diplomatic charm
offensive across the world as it looks to attract companies to invest
across all sectors, from its ageing hydrocarbon-based energy system to
transport and general construction. 'There is no Iran strategy in France,
and this is a source of regret,' Transport Minister Abbas Ahmad Akhoundi
told a conference at the International Diplomatic Academy in Paris.
'Sooner or later the nuclear conflict will be resolved and France needs
to decide on its position now.' Akhoundi was speaking during the Paris
Airshow, where he has been holding talks with executives from French
firms including Thales and European planemaker Airbus." http://t.uani.com/1SnWyJN
Extremism
Press TV (Iran):
"A senior Iranian official says the West and Israel have created
Takfiri terrorist groups in order to deflect Muslim's attention from the
issue of Palestine. Speaking to Lebanon-based Arabic-language al-Manar
television on Sunday, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security
Council Ali Shamkhani (SNSC) criticized the West and Israel for
supporting ISIL Takfiri militants, who are currently wreaking havoc
across the Middle East region. 'Western governments, Zionists and
bullying powers have created them (Takfiri groups) in our region to sap
the power of the Islamic Ummah and prevent the Muslim world from focusing
on its basic objective, which is the issue of Palestine,' Shamkhani
said." http://t.uani.com/1INAbZT
Press TV (Iran):
"Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif says the policies of
the United States and the Israeli regime toward the Middle East are the
root cause of the emergence of extremism and terrorism in the region.
Zarif made the remarks in a meeting with Gabriela Cuevas Barron, the
chair of the foreign relations committee of Mexico' Senate of the
Republic, in the Iranian capital, Tehran, on Tuesday." http://t.uani.com/1KZiKaX
Human Rights
IHR:
"According to official reports in Iran, two prisoners were hanged to
death in public on Tuesday in two different cities: Sari (in the province
of Mazandaran) and Eqlid (in the province of Fars). The website for the
Mazandaran Judiciary listed the name of the prisoner publicly hanged in
Sari as 'Jome Khan E.', son of Khalegh, and stated his charge as 'Buying
and possessing 7 Kilograms and 270 Grams of crack'. The prisoner
was an Afghan citizen according to the official sources." http://t.uani.com/1GsUf2T
Domestic
Politics
AFP:
"Iran's President Hassan Rouhani received a fresh challenge to his
authority on Tuesday when 60 lawmakers filed impeachment papers seeking
to sack his education minister. The motion, which accuses Ali Asghar Fani
of being incapable of performing his duties, faces a vote in the
conservative-dominated parliament on June 24, the official IRNA news
agency reported. As in past impeachment actions, the effort to dismiss
Fani may lead Rouhani to parliament to argue in his minister's defence. A
'yes' vote requires a simple majority of the chamber's 290 MPs. In early
March, several hundred teachers demonstrated in Tehran and other cities
to demand increased wages. Fani, a reformist, was approved by parliament
in October 2013 after Rouhani's first choice for the post was rejected.
If the impeachment motion is passed, Fani would be the second of
Rouhani's ministers to be dismissed by MPs. Reza Faraji Dana, the
minister for science, research and technology, was ousted last
year." http://t.uani.com/1N2ll2Z
Opinion &
Analysis
Simon Chin &
Valerie Lincy in NRO: "As the negotiations over
Iran's nuclear program approach the June 30 deadline for a final deal, a
crucial issue remains unresolved: inspections. The country's supreme
leader has proclaimed military sites strictly off-limits to inspectors,
while the French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, has said such
inspections are a key priority. If the ongoing talks hold to form, the
United States will either concede the issue or seek a compromise
solution. The latter may be possible; the former would be dangerous. The
concessions the United States and its P5+1 partners have already made -
permitting Iran to maintain a limited uranium enrichment program for 15
years, and an unlimited one afterward - make the prospective task for
inspectors daunting. They will need to confirm that Iran is abiding by
the restrictions on its nuclear program, oversee its ongoing and declared
program, and monitor the country for any secret nuclear work or
nuclear-related military work. As Foreign Minister Fabius recently said,
'the best agreement, if you cannot verify it, it's useless.' So what,
specifically, would inspectors need in order to provide adequate
assurance that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons, either by
'breakout' at declared facilities, or by 'sneakout' using secret sites? A
panel of former U.N. weapons inspectors and U.S. nonproliferation
specialists, brought together by the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms
Control (where we work) to address this question, recently agreed on a firm
list of requirements for effective inspections. At the same time, they
sought to frame some of the measures so as not to drive away Iranian
negotiators. Their recommendations include the following:
- A full
declaration by Iran of its past and present nuclear work, which
would be an essential starting point for monitoring and
verification. In an effort to avoid controversy, the declaration
could take the form of a consolidation and updating of the various
declarations Iran has made since 2003.
- The right
to inspect any facility or location in Iran, including military
sites, under the principle of 'managed access.' Iran has accepted
this principle in another arms-control agreement, the Chemical
Weapons Convention.
- Ready
access to documents, facility plans, and key personnel, which is
essential for verifying Iran's declaration and for guiding
inspections.
- Inspection
teams led by the International Atomic Energy Agency and augmented by
expert personnel from the P5+1 countries, with access to upgradable,
open-source monitoring equipment. The use of efficient monitoring
equipment could reduce the need for on-site inspectors, who are
perceived as more intrusive.
- The right
to verify and monitor the end-use of all nuclear and missile-related
imports made through an established procurement channel, including
in non-nuclear sectors.
- An
international oversight body composed of all parties to the
agreement, which has the benefit of including the P5+1 without
excluding Iran. A joint commission of some kind has been a feature
of every successful arms-control agreement.
The panel also stressed the importance of resolving the
IAEA's outstanding questions about Iran's alleged weaponization
activities - what the IAEA calls the 'possible military dimensions' of
Iran's nuclear program. The IAEA's investigation is essential for
understanding the country's past nuclear-weapons-relevant work, and would
offer a basis for inspectors to access military sites where such work
occurred and to examine relevant documents and personnel." http://t.uani.com/1QE36qd
Matthew Kroenig in
Tablet: "As the June 30 deadline for striking a
comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran looms, discussions quickly get
bogged down in debates about numbers and types of centrifuges, schedules
for sanctions relief, and procedures for international inspections. These
arcane issues cause many people's eyes to glaze over, but, in reality,
the details of the ongoing negotiations are acutely irrelevant to the
merits of the deal that the Obama Administration wants to strike. Indeed,
one can assess the merits of the outlined nuclear deal without any
reference whatsoever to its finer points. The framework deal does not
even come close to qualifying as an acceptable nuclear agreement, and the
reason is simple and easy to understand: Since the beginning of the
nuclear era, scientists have understood that the exact same technology
could be used to produce fuel either for nuclear energy or for nuclear
weapons. The two methods for producing nuclear fuel, uranium enrichment
and plutonium reprocessing, therefore, became known as 'sensitive nuclear
technologies.' The United States has always opposed the spread of
sensitive nuclear technologies to all states, including its own allies,
and it should not make an exception for Iran. I personally worked on
nuclear issues both in and out of government (including at the Pentagon
and other agencies) for over a decade, and I and many of my colleagues
had always assumed that the only way to prevent nuclear proliferation in
Iran would be to eliminate its uranium enrichment capability. For over a
decade, U.S. policy reflected this assessment. Throughout the 2000s, the
Bush Administration engaged in international negotiations with Iran, but
its bottom line never changed: The only deal worth having was one that
stopped enrichment in Iran. Senator and U.S. presidential candidate
Barack Obama also supported this goal, saying at a 2007 meeting of AIPAC,
'The world must work to stop Iran's uranium-enrichment program.' The
policy that both Democratic and Republican presidents and presidential
candidates have supported for the past seven decades is a sensible
compromise that encourages the peaceful uses of nuclear technology while
managing its proliferation dangers: Countries can operate nuclear
reactors for power or research purposes, but they are not permitted to
make their own fuel. The vast majority of countries on Earth with nuclear
programs do not possess sensitive nuclear facilities. Rather the fuel is
provided by a more advanced nuclear power, such as Russia, France, or the
United States. This eliminates the need for the spread of dangerous
enrichment or reprocessing programs to new countries. Countries like Iran
that insist on developing their own sensitive technologies for 'peaceful
purposes,' therefore, are tipping their hand and revealing a likely
intention to build the bomb. To stop determined proliferators, the United
States and the rest of the international community have worked hard to
halt the spread of enrichment and reprocessing technologies, a campaign
that has been prosecuted with equal vigor by Democratic and Republican
administrations alike... Then, suddenly, in what can only be described as
a desperate attempt to get a deal with Iran regardless of the terms, the
Obama Administration abandoned this 70-year-old bipartisan mainstay of
U.S. nonproliferation policy-a policy that has stopped many countries
from getting the bomb and thereby reduced the global threat of nuclear
war. In the interim deal with Iran in November 2013, Washington and the rest
of the P5+1 recognized a de facto right to enrichment in Iran. Over the
past 18 months, the United States has engaged in the unprecedented act of
haggling over the size and scope, not the existence, of an illegal
enrichment program in a rogue state... A deal that allows Iran to keep a
uranium enrichment program will not prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear
weapons. Instead, it will make an Iranian bomb more likely. It also
increases the risk of a nuclear arms race in the region. Then there is
the matter of setting a dangerous precedent: It will be impossible for
Washington to argue that it trusts Iran with sensitive nuclear facilities
but not its friends and allies. To make matters even worse, in the wake
of a deal, all of this will happen with the international community's
stamp of approval. Seventy years of successful U.S.-led nonproliferation
policy will have been trashed. In sum, if to this point you have been
confused about the arcane technical details in the Iran nuclear
negotiations, save yourself some trouble. Unless the negotiators return
to insisting on zero enrichment, their efforts deserve zero
support." http://t.uani.com/1GYRvO0
WSJ Editorial:
"President Barack Obama likes to say that sanctions on Iran can be
'snapped back' into place should Tehran violate any nuclear deal it might
sign. Mark that down as another Administration fantasy. The latest
evidence of growing business interest in the Islamic Republic came at
this year's World National Oil Companies Congress, held in London, where
a full day of briefings on Monday was devoted to exploring
energy-industry opportunities after sanctions vanish. Chevron, Siemens,
Australia's Woodside Energy and Singapore's Yug-Neftegaz were among the
industry players with delegates at the Iran briefings. 'We think that the
enthusiasm is there,' Elham Hassanzadeh, the main workshop presenter,
said in an interview with us. 'And the fact that the whole sanctions
structure is weakened is true, because everybody's just ready that once
it really crumbles to go back to the country and put down the money.' Ms.
Hassanzadeh is the managing director of Energy Pioneers, a consultancy
with offices in Oxford and Tehran. She said her Iranian-government
contacts have received 'a great deal of interest' from Western businesses
and cited the 'sheer volume of companies talking' to the Iranians. 'It's
more like flirting. So it's good. They're getting to know each other.'
... Mr. Obama may imagine that all this economic activity will come to a
halt at the first sign that Iran is violating a nuclear deal. The
business community is clearly betting otherwise." http://t.uani.com/1fhcr6B
Tony Badran in NOW
Lebanon: "Its strategic goal is to preserve the
Assad regime in an enclave that would include Damascus, the corridor up
to Homs, straddling the Lebanese border, and the coastal mountain region
around Latakia. Some analysts are describing this plan as preserving
'useful' or 'vital' Syria. This description is not entirely wrong but it
misses a key point; namely, the Iranian role in the project. Far more
important to Tehran than the inclusion of, say, Aleppo, is the
maintenance of territorial contiguity with Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon.
In the eyes of Tehran, Hezbollah and the Assad regime are Siamese twins
sharing vital organs. Separating them from each other will result in the
death of both... What this means, in sum, is that the defense of the
capital and the critical points of the regime enclave is now almost
entirely in the hands of the Iranians and their militias - who are also
under severe pressure in Iraq, where even with the aid of the US Air
Force they are hard pressed to roll back the Islamic State. Their ability
to expand much more beyond the enclave's perimeter is dubious. All of
this raises an acute question about American foreign policy. Is this
really the right moment to provide Iran with a massive cash infusion? The
Iranian system is under strain. Wouldn't it make more sense for the
United States to exacerbate the strain rather than relieve it? Instead,
the Obama administration is helping sustain the Iranian regional
project." http://t.uani.com/1d16Jnx
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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