Join UANI
Top Stories
The Hill:
"Senate Democrats held ranks Thursday and blocked a resolution
disapproving the Iran nuclear deal, handing President Obama a major
political victory. Only a few months earlier, some Senate opponents of
the deal predicted they would be able to muster 67 votes to override a
presidential veto. They fell far short of their goal this week in a 58-42
vote. Sixty votes were necessary to move forward. Republicans refused to
concede defeat, however, and said they would force Democrats to vote on
Iran again next week. 'It will be all Iran next week,' Senate Majority
Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) said before the vote. 'There are going to be
more votes,' he told reporters. 'There will be other opportunities for
people to change their mind next week, hopefully after they hear from
their constituents. Forty-two Democrats voted Thursday to filibuster the
Republican-led disapproval measure and pave the way for sanctions to be
lifted on Iran in the spring of 2016. Fifty-four Republicans and four
Democrats voted to proceed. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell
(Ky.) framed it as one of the most important foreign policy debates of
the past decade and suggested Democrats would pay a political price. He
called the Democratic obstruction 'a tragedy.' 'This is a deal that will
far outlast one administration. The President may have the luxury of
vacating office in a few months, but many of our responsibilities extend
beyond that,' he said. 'The American people will remember where we stand
today.' McConnell filed a motion Thursday afternoon setting up another
vote on the disapproval measure next week." http://t.uani.com/1F1Pv73
The Hill:
"The House passed a resolution Thursday contending that President
Obama hasn't provided Congress with all of the documents related to the
Iran nuclear deal, thereby violating the terms of the congressional
review law. The party-line vote of 245-186 came a day after House GOP
leaders recalibrated their strategy to reject the deal following a
conservative revolt. It also came the same day Senate Democrats blocked
progress on a resolution disapproving the deal. In the House,
conservatives rallied around a proposal from Rep. Peter Roskam
(R-Ill.), co-chairman of the House Republican Israel Caucus, to
delay a vote on the Iran deal until the Obama administration provides
Congress with the text of side deals between Iran and the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)... House and Senate Republican leaders have
stated since July that the 60-day review period ends Sept. 17. But
lawmakers demanding to see the arrangements between Iran and the IAEA
argue that the review period hasn't technically started because they
don't have all the documents pertaining to the deal... After passage of
the resolution stating President Obama didn't provide Congress with all
the necessary documents, the House will take up two more bills Friday.
One will be a resolution approving the deal, which is expected to fail.
The other measure would prevent Obama from lifting sanctions against Iran
for the rest of his term." http://t.uani.com/1FBWtuh
NYT:
"President Obama, in advance of his victory in Congress on Thursday
on the Iran nuclear deal, focused on centrifuge numbers, uranium
stockpiles and the breakout time to build a bomb. But now, as the
agreement is carried out, he will face a new battle over how stringently
to impose economic sanctions on Iran. To reward Iran for imposing
constraints on its nuclear program, the United States agreed to lift many
of the crippling sanctions that have blocked the country's integration
into the world economy. But to win over wary Democrats, Mr. Obama
promised that he would maintain - and perhaps even increase - sanctions
to punish Iran for terrorism, human rights abuses and other
'destabilizing activities in the region.' Many lawmakers have indicated
they would like to go further, and they are considering legislative
proposals that include renewing the current sanctions against foreign
companies that invest in Iran's energy industry... Another proposal
considered by lawmakers would seek to discourage Western companies from
doing business with any Iranian firm in which the Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps has even a minority stake; that would be done by officially
designating the group a foreign terrorist organization." http://t.uani.com/1K1Z6d2
Nuclear Program
& Agreement
AP:
"Iran says it has not yet decided how to reduce its enriched uranium
stockpile - which it must do under the July 14 nuclear deal it signed
with six world powers. Iranian envoy Reza Najafi says one option would be
to export it to Russia or other countries. The other, he says, would be
to convert it to non-enriched form. Najafi, Iran's chief envoy to the
International Atomic Energy Agency, spoke to reporters Thursday outside a
meeting of the agency's 35-nation board." http://t.uani.com/1NtOeIQ
NYT:
"At Friday Prayer, there was no clear reference to the breakthrough
in Congress, although a prayer leader, Ayatollah Mohammed Ali Movahedi-Kermani,
speaking at Tehran University, warned the United States that any attempt
to alter the agreement would be met with similar Iranian countermeasures.
'America is the same as before, a bullying power,' he said. 'They say the
sanctions can snap back into place, and they say, 'The regime in Iran
should change.' But they should know that we never accept humiliation.'
'They say the sanctions are reversible; we say our activities are
reversible,' he added, drawing cheers of 'Death to America' from the
crowd." http://t.uani.com/1F1E8Mi
Congressional Vote
Politico:
"For weeks, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has been penning
handwritten, personalized thank you notes to the nearly 150 House
Democrats who publicly backed President Barack Obama's nuclear deal with Iran.
The personal touch caps a months-long behind the scenes campaign by the
California Democrat, who has worked hard to ensure the survival of the
crowning foreign policy achievement of Obama's second term. And it came
just months after Pelosi's relationship with the president hit a low
point when she rallied opposition against his push for a sweeping free
trade agreement. In an interview with POLITICO on Thursday, Pelosi said
she worked hand-in-glove with the White House, pinpointing skeptical
Democrats and helping to make sure Obama called them all. It was a marked
shift for congressional Democrats, many of whom have complained that the
president hasn't done enough over the last 7 years to build
relationships. In the end, fewer than two dozen House Democrats ended up
voicing opposition to the deal. 'All I was looking for was winning,'
Pelosi said inside her Capitol office." http://t.uani.com/1iCAkqT
Politico:
"It may be years before the political fallout of the Senate's mostly
party-line vote Thursday to preserve the Iran nuclear agreement becomes
clear. But it's already a defining campaign issue - and like the Iraq War
and Obamacare votes last decade, looks likely to remain a stark dividing
line in many election cycles to come. Republicans are plotting to make
Democrats pay dearly for backing an agreement the GOP argues hinges on an
historic enemy of the United States playing nice. Senate Majority Leader
Mitch McConnell plans to return to the floor next week to force Democrats
to take more votes Republicans say they'll regret as soon as Iran
violates the terms of the deal or sponsors terrorist attacks, which
critics believe is just a matter of time. After that will come the attack
ads, national GOP officials say. It's expected to be a key cog of
Republicans' electoral strategy: some GOP senators are already comparing
it to Obamacare in its scope and potential to damage Democratic
supporters politically. 'It will be very harmful to their chances,' said
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Roger Wicker of
Mississippi." http://t.uani.com/1L6yERv
Sanctions
Relief
Bloomberg:
"Since the nuclear agreement between Iran and six other nations was
reached on July 14, the regime has been preparing to ramp up its exports
and sell that stored oil. A small number of Iranian tankers believed to
have been storing crude has left the Persian Gulf in the past several
weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Three of those ships have
since disappeared from detection by failing to report their location."
http://t.uani.com/1UHsugX
Reuters:
"French firms have fallen behind their main European, American and
Asian rivals in reviving economic ties with Iran since a deal to curb its
nuclear programme in July, a senior French executive said on Thursday.
France's main business lobby group, the Medef, is sending a delegation
comprising about 130 firms to Iran, including top companies such as Total
and Peugeot, from Sept. 21-23. They will be accompanied by the trade and
agriculture ministers. 'This visit is very important for us,' said
Thibault de Silguy, vice-president of construction company Vinci and of
the Medef, who will lead the delegation to Iran. 'We have fallen behind,
so now we have to make up lost ground,' he told reporters. Among
countries that already have a lead on French firms, he cited Germany,
Austria, China and the United States." http://t.uani.com/1KIQUlj
Reuters:
"Daimler is planning to resume business in Iran following the
country's nuclear deal with world powers, Bernhard said. The accord looks
likely to be implemented after efforts by U.S. Republicans to kill the
agreement collapsed on Thursday. 'We will revive our activities which we
let rest for many years,' he said. 'Iran is a great opportunity for
us.'" http://t.uani.com/1OiMv8k
Reuters:
"Indian refiners have been told to prepare to deposit $700 million
with United Commercial Bank in readiness for it to pass on the first
instalment of oil payments owed to Iran, two sources with knowledge of
the matter said, ahead of the expected lifting of sanctions against
Tehran... The refiners -- Essar Oil, Mangalore Refinery and
Petrochemicals, Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp and HPCL Mittal
Energy -- together owe a total of more than $6.6 billion. The $700
million part-payment will be split in line of the proportion owed by
each." http://t.uani.com/1UHoJYE
Syria Conflict
Free Beacon:
"For the first time in the four-year-old civil war raging in Syria,
an Iranian combat unit has deployed in defense of the regime of President
Bashar al-Assad. Several hundred members of the elite Revolutionary Guard
have taken position on high ground close to the Lebanese border near the
village of Zabadani northwest of Damascus, according to Israeli defense
sources. Briefing Israeli reporters Thursday, the sources said the
Iranian move is coordinated with the Russians who have also been beefing
up their presence in Syria in recent weeks although not yet with combat
troops." http://t.uani.com/1K29jWZ
Reuters:
"Russian forces have begun participating in military operations in
Syria in support of government troops, three Lebanese sources familiar
with the political and military situation there said on Wednesday. The
sources, speaking to Reuters on condition they not be identified, gave
the most forthright account yet from the region of what the United States
fears is a deepening Russian military role in Syria's civil war, though
one of the Lebanese sources said the number of Russians involved so far
was small. U.S. officials said Russia sent two tank landing ships and
additional cargo aircraft to Syria in the past day or so and deployed a
small number of naval infantry forces." http://t.uani.com/1Q6Pe37
Foreign Affairs
Reuters:
"Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif will visit Beijing
next week to discuss Iran's nuclear agreement and efforts to boost ties
with China, China's foreign ministry said on Friday. China and Iran have
close diplomatic, economic, trade and energy ties, and Chinese Foreign
Minister Wang Yi has been active in pushing both the United States and
Iran to reach agreement on the nuclear issue... Zarif will travel to
China on Sept. 15 at the invitation of Wang, Foreign Ministry spokesman
Hong Lei told a news conference." http://t.uani.com/1K24ywk
Opinion &
Analysis
WSJ Editorial:
"The Senate held its first showdown vote on the Iranian nuclear deal
Thursday, with 58 Senators having declared their opposition, including
four Democrats and Republican non-hawks like Susan Collins of Maine and
Rand Paul of Kentucky. The American public is also overwhelmingly
opposed, with a Pew poll this week finding 21% approval for the agreement
versus 49% disapproval. So it says something about President Obama's
contempt for Congress that he browbeat and threatened 42 Democrats to
filibuster the vote so he can duck having to veto a resolution of
disapproval. The President may think he can spin 42 Senate votes into
political vindication, and we're sure he'll get media support for that
view. But Americans should read a filibuster as a tacit Democratic
admission of no confidence in an agreement they fear voting on. It's also
an abdication-and a betrayal. In May the Senate voted 98-1 for the Iran
Nuclear Agreement Review Act, better known for sponsors Bob Corker (R.,
Tenn.) and Ben Cardin (D., Md.), and Mr. Obama signed it. Historically,
significant foreign agreements have been submitted to Congress as
treaties, requiring two-thirds approval in the Senate. The Administration
knew it could never meet that threshold, devised by the founders so that
binding agreements with foreign powers would have broad and enduring
public support. Instead, it wanted to make a deal with Iran as an
executive agreement, ratified not by Congress but by the U.N.'s Security
Council. But only Congress can fully lift the sanctions it imposed on Iran,
so Mr. Obama was forced to make his grudging nod to the co-equal branch.
Now Mr. Obama is violating the law he signed, and Democrats are helping
him do it. Corker-Cardin stipulates that the Administration must submit
to Congress the full nuclear agreement, including any 'side agreements,
implementing materials, documents, and guidance, technical or other
understandings, and any related agreements, whether entered into or
implemented prior to the agreement or to be entered into or implemented
in the future.' The Administration ignored that requirement, allowing the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to reach secret agreements with
Iran concerning the inspection protocols of suspected nuclear sites, and
then failing to tell Congress about them... Mr. Obama may have the votes
he needs to block a vote of overwhelming disapproval, but foreign policy
legacies are flimsy when they're built on parliamentary tricks." http://t.uani.com/1FBRjOY
Dennis Ross &
Michael Makovsky in Politico: "As Thursday's Senate
vote demonstrates, there is no longer any suspense about the fate of the
nuclear deal with Iran. What remains relevant, however, are concerns
about some of the key vulnerabilities of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA). Even many of its supporters have worries about what
happens when Iran is no longer limited in the size or the quality of its
centrifuges or nuclear infrastructure, particularly after year fifteen.
Similarly, both supporters and opponents of the deal are understandably
concerned about Iran using sanctions relief to provide significantly more
material support to Hezbollah and other trouble-makers in the region.
Thus, shouldn't it be possible to gain bipartisan agreement on bolstering
deterrence and raising the cost to the Iranians of de-stabilizing
behavior in the region? Indeed, shouldn't Republicans and Democrats be
able to agree on legislation that would not be inconsistent with the
JCPOA but could address the need to create a firewall between Iran's
threshold nuclear status and its becoming a weapons state? President
Obama stated in his letter to Congressman Jerrold Nadler that 'my
administration will take whatever means are necessary to achieve that
goal [preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon], including
military means.' It follows that, putting in legislation language that
would support the use of force in response to an Iranian dash toward a
nuclear bomb should be something the president could support. In any case
this is critically needed if the Iranians and the world are to understand
that force and not sanctions will be the response to Iran's violating its
commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon at any point but especially
after the fifteen year period when limits on the size of the Iranian
nuclear program are lifted. Similarly, since there is no civilian
justification for producing highly enriched uranium (HEU), there should
be no reason why the White House cannot accept legislative language that
would treat the production of HEU as a trigger for the possible use of
force... In addition, we also see a need for the legislation to provide
the massive ordinance penetrator (MOP)-and the aircraft to carry it--to
Israel to reinforce Israeli deterrence. The MOP is a 30,000 pound
mountain buster that would enable Israel to target Fordow, the Iranian
enrichment site built into a mountain. Providing it to Israel would have
the added benefit of signaling that we mean what we say about preventing
Iran from ever becoming a nuclear weapons state... Finally, legislation
that provides for select and targeted sanctions in response to a surge of
material support for Iran's proxies in the region is a necessary part of
a strategy for the area designed to ensure that Hezbollah, Hamas, and
other Iranian-supported militias in the area don't gain as a result of
the JCPOA. The point is that the JCPOA may block Iran's enrichment,
plutonium separation, and covert paths to a nuclear bomb for the next
fifteen years. That is the good news. The bad news is that it essentially
legitimizes Iran as a nuclear threshold state and, like any deal on
Iran's nuclear program, provides the sanctions relief that will permit
Iran to do vastly more trouble-making in the region. While the JCPOA will
soon become a reality, there is at this point a legislative remedy to
some of the vulnerabilities that flow from the deal." http://t.uani.com/1XTnBjT
Charles
Krauthammer in WashPost: "Congress is finally having
its say on the Iran deal. It will be an elaborate charade, however,
because, having first gone to the United Nations, President Obama has
largely drained congressional action of relevance. At the Security
Council, he pushed through a resolution ratifying the deal, thus
officially committing the United States as a nation to its implementation
- in advance of any congressional action. The resolution abolishes the
entire legal framework, built over a decade, underlying the international
sanctions against Iran. A few months from now, they will be gone. The
script is already written: The International Atomic Energy Agency,
relying on Iran's self-inspection (!) of its most sensitive nuclear
facility, will declare Iran in compliance. The agreement then goes into
effect and Iran's nuclear program is officially deemed peaceful.
Sanctions are lifted. The mullahs receive $100 billion of frozen assets
as a signing bonus. Iran begins reaping the economic bonanza, tripling
its oil exports and welcoming a stampede of foreign companies back into
the country. It is all precooked. Last month, Britain's foreign secretary
traveled to Tehran with an impressive delegation of British companies
ready to deal. He was late, however. The Italian and French foreign
ministers had already been there, accompanied by their own hungry
businessmen and oil companies. Iran is back in business. As a matter of
constitutional decency, the president should have submitted the deal to
Congress first. And submitted it as a treaty. Which it obviously is. No
international agreement in a generation matches this one in strategic
significance and geopolitical gravity. Obama did not submit it as a
treaty because he knew he could never get the constitutionally required
votes for ratification. He's not close to getting two-thirds of the
Senate. He's not close to getting a simple majority. No wonder: In the
latest Pew Research Center poll, the American people oppose the deal by a
staggering 28-point margin. To get around the Constitution, Obama
negotiated a swindle that requires him to garner a mere one-third of one
house of Congress. Indeed, on Thursday, with just 42 Senate supporters -
remember, a treaty requires 67 - the Democrats filibustered and
prevented, at least for now, the Senate from voting on the deal at all.
But Obama two months ago enshrined the deal as international law at the
U.N. Why should we care about the congressional vote? In order to
highlight the illegitimacy of Obama's constitutional runaround and thus
make it easier for a future president to overturn the deal, especially if
Iran is found to be cheating. As of now, however, it is done. Iran will be
both unleashed - sanctions lifted, economy booming, with no treaty
provisions regarding its growing regional aggression and support for
terrorists - and welcomed as a good international citizen possessing a
peaceful nuclear program. An astonishing trick." http://t.uani.com/1K26Lbg
Ray Takeyh in WSJ:
"A curious defense of the Iran deal is emerging. Some Democrats say
that if the agreement is implemented, they will resist nefarious Iranian
policies, domestic abuses, human rights repression, and sponsorship of
terrorism. In a speech Wednesday, Hillary Clinton pledged that as
president, 'I will raise the costs for their actions and confront them
across the board.' But these muscular declarations often lack specifics,
which makes them appear more as justifications for this accord's
deficiencies than blueprints for a different policy. No amount of U.S.
military deployments or arms sales can ameliorate the consequences of a
flawed arms-control agreement. How would additional U.S. naval vessels in
the Persian Gulf address the fact that, under the deal, in eight years
Iran could begin operating centrifuges that could give it a capability to
break out toward a weapon? How would additional missile defense systems
for Israel address the fact that when the nuclear deal expires, Iran
would be free to accumulate as much uranium it wishes at whatever
enrichment gradations it can justify for nonmilitary uses? How would the
sale of additional aircraft to Saudi Arabia improve a verification
mechanism that relies on a protracted time table, endless mediation, and
physical inspections that might be inhibited? The biggest problem with
the Iran nuclear deal boils down to the provisions of the deal itself.
Still, a true policy of pushing back against Iran requires a type of
activism increasingly abjured in progressive policy circles. Namely, it
would involve reversing Iran's gains in Iraq. And that would require not
just material assistance but also additional U.S. troops. The dismal
shape of Iraqi security forces necessitates U.S. advisers and trainers on
a large scale. And so far, those Democrats stressing their determination
to contain Iran have ignored its imprint in Iraq. Can a policy of pushing
back against Iran be taken seriously if it does not involve changing the
balance of power in Syria's civil war? The ouster of Bashar al-Assad, a
dependable Iranian client, would require organizing Syria's opposition
forces into a cohesive fighting group, solidifying their gains with U.S.
assistance (this might take the form of airpower), and perhaps deploying
Special Forces. Dislodging Iran's grip on its Mediterranean outpost would
require a sustained U.S. commitment involving funds and forces. So far,
no Democratic senator, House member, or presidential candidate pledging a
robust Iran policy has outlined a credible plan for achieving their
goals... There is an inherent contradiction in striking an arms-control
agreement with Iran, and this accord's shortcomings are legion. It is
difficult to address the deal's shortcomings without adjusting its key
provisions. But the pledges offered so far appear more like hazy
declarations than real plans." http://t.uani.com/1Kd5lHV
Eugene Kontorovich
in WashPost: "Many observers have assumed that
despite the deep legal infirmities in the White House's Iran deal, there
is no way to secure judicial review of it. In fact, there are at least
two paths to invalidating any sanctions relief implemented by the
president - a lawsuit by a House of Congress, or action involving state
sanctions laws. Yesterday a D.C. Federal district court issued a landmark
ruling in House of Representatives v. Burwell, upholding the House of
Representatives standing to challenge Executive action under the
Affordable Care Act. The question of institutional legislative standing
is a fairly novel one, and thus this is an important decision. Whether it
survives on appeal, the decision creates a major and previously
unanticipated opening for a congressional lawsuit challenging the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action. The constitutional argument would focus on
the non-transmission of documents required under the Iran Nuclear
Agreement Review Act of 2015 (the Corker-Cardin deal), which would seem
to satisfy the standing test established by the district court.
Corker-Cardin makes clear that sanctions relief under preexisting
statutory authority can only come after a positive vote, or no vote, or
an overridden disapproval vote, during the 'period of review.' Since the
period of review has not started, sanctions relief would be unlawful.
Congress suffers an injury by the president's failure to begin 'period of
review.' Thus Congress can take no binding action with regard to the
JCPA. This undermines Congress's Article I ability to regulate foreign
commerce, and indeed its ability to function as a legislature. By not
transmitting the relevant materials, the president is preventing Congress
from exercising its legislative authority. That argument - whether
ultimately successful or not - may state a sufficient injury under House
of Representatives v. Burwell. The President, of course, has broad, but
not infinite discretion in the enforcement of federal law. Burwell found
a related challenge to presidential enforcement action to be
non-justiciable. But President Obama does not plan on merely not enforcing
sanctions. Rather, he will purport to formally suspend them - a binding
legal action. (One difference is that mere non-enforcement could be
reversed by a subsequent president, who could enforce sanctions law
against those who violated them even under Obama.) Even if Congress
proceeds to a vote, it will have no legal effect, because the 'period of
review' would not have started, and the statute only authorizes sanctions
relief during or after the 'period or review.' Congress cannot rewrite
the 'period of review' definition in Corker-Cardin simply by staging a
vote... There is another avenue for standing to challenge the
implementation of the Iran deal - indeed, dozens of avenues. Assume the
President proceeds, purporting to have satisfied Corker-Cardin, to waive
and suspend sanctions under preexisting authorities. But since Congress's
vote was not within the 'period of review,' which had not started, the
entire exercise will be with no legal effect. Corker-Cardin's freezing of
the president's sanctions suspension authority will still be in effect.
Indeed, it will be in effect indefinitely. Many states have their own
Iran sanctions' laws, and many are are moving to implement or strengthen
such. Many of the state sanctions regimes provide that they terminate if
federal sanctions are suspended. Such a state may well be sued by those
subject to the state sanctions, arguing that the state sanctions are
preempted by federal law, on the view that federal sanctions have been
suspended or waived. The plaintiffs in such a case would certainly have
standing. But as a defense to such a suit, the state could then argue
that in fact the federal sanctions have not been waived or suspended,
under the terms of Corker-Cardin. Such an argument would be eminently
justiciable, as standing generally applies to plaintiff's claims, not to
defenses. It is not unheard for the legality of something to be
non-justiciable in a direct challenge, but reviewable in an enforcement
action. To put if differently, state law can't be preempted by an invalid
federal action." http://t.uani.com/1KIPYgZ
Eugene Kontorovich
in WashPost: "Now I want to examine the substance of
the argument that the Administration's non-transmission of so-called
'side deals' between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) prevents the time period for congressional review of the deal from
starting, and thus also locks in existing sanctions. The statutory
language in the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act is quite broad,
encompassing 'related agreements' such as 'side agreements.' That is
enough to sweep in the IAEA documents. But they are more than than just
'side agreements' - they are part of the deal itself. They are not
unconnected, parallel satellite documents, but rather integrated parts of
the agreement. Thus not only the letter, but the purpose of the agreement
requires Congress to see them to begin the review. First, it is important
to understand the role of the IAEA in the agreement. It is not merely an
outside actor. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) mentions
the IAEA more than 100 times by name. More generally, the IAEA is an
integral part of the JCPOA mechanism. The deal is built around IAEA
action. Thus the IAEA's inspection and verification processes are built
into the JCPOA as triggers for sanctions relief and other actions by the
signatories. The JCPOA's timetables for implementation are heavily based
on IAEA actions. In short, the the IAEA is part of the deal... So the
JCPOA refers and incorporates the 'Roadmap for Clarification,' signed the
same day and in parallel as the conclusion of the JCPOA, despite the
Roadmap formally being an arrangement between Iran and the IAEA. So there
is nothing odd about Iran-IAEA agreements being part of the JCPOA: This
is what the JCPOA says. The Roadmap is not a side agreement, but rather
incorporated by reference into the JCPOA. Within the framework of the
IAEA-Iran 'Roadmap,' the IAEA and Iran entered into subordinate
agreements dealing with particular verification issues, most saliently,
the Parchin site. The Roadmap is clearly a 'relevant' document under the
JCPOA; indeed, it is incorporated by reference. The arrangements pursuant
to the Roadmap are by their terms not separate 'agreements.' Rather, as
the chapeau to Art. 1 of the Roadmap make clear, the missing documents in
question are merely 'arrangements' that are part of the 'context' of the
Roadmap agreement. Thus the so-called 'side deals' fall within the
Roadmap (and are explicitly adopted by it), and the Roadmap is explicitly
adopted by the JCPOA. (See also Annex I, par. 66.). These are not
separate agreements from the JCPOA; they are intertwined. Thus the IAEA's
arrangements with Iran are more than mere 'side agreements' - they are
part of the deal (though much less is required under Corker-Cardin for
their production). A side agreement is a parallel document; these
documents are vertically integrated... Then there is the argument that
the president does not have the documents and that the JCPOA ensures
their secrecy. That is indeed a problem, but mostly for the president.
Corker-Cardin is a statute, with certain requirements. A non-binding
non-executive agreement cannot excuse the Executive from complying with
the terms of a statute. So if there is a conflict between the disclosure
required by Corker-Cardin, which the president of course signed, and the
disclosure permitted by the JCPOA, the former would prevail." http://t.uani.com/1VRDtRW
Aaron David Miller
in WSJ: "The Iran nuclear agreement looks all but
certain to proceed through the U.S. Congress in the coming days. Whether
you love the deal, hate it, or are still undecided, the inconvenient
truth is that the durability of the agreement and its benefits for the
U.S. depend almost entirely on the moderation of Iran's regime and its
behavior in the region. In defending the accord, President Barack Obama
has asserted that regardless of whether Iran becomes more moderate,
Tehran without a nuke is better than a Tehran that has the bomb. It's
hard to argue with this. But this reasoning fails to account for three
factors that will continue to make Iran a formidable adversary. And in
some ways, the agreement-regardless of restrictions on Iran's nuclear
program-could make the regime even more dangerous. It is virtually
impossible to separate Iran's nuclear weapons aspirations from the nature
of the regime, its ambitions in the region, or its view of the United
States. Iran's desire to become a nuclear weapons threshold state or
maintain the option to weaponize at some point was driven by its desire to
preserve its highly ideological and authoritarian character. Iranian
leaders are looking to protect the 1979 revolution and create a hedge
against regime change by hostile powers-principally the U.S. and key
Sunni Arab states-that they believe are seeking to encircle or overthrow
the government in Tehran. Iran is driven by a sense of insecurity and
entitlement when it comes to regional standing. And Henry Kissinger was
right years ago that as long as Iran remains a cause rather than a
nation, it will not abandon its nuclear weapons pretensions. Iran doesn't
(yet) have a nuke, and U.S. intelligence assessments are that Tehran has
yet to make a decision about weaponizing. Right now, the threat to the
U.S. and its allies isn't what's in the agreement but actions that fall
outside it-namely, Iran's ambitions in the region. Iran isn't a
superpower; its allies (embattled Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad,
Hezbollah, Houthi rebels in Yemen, Shiite militias in Iraq) are pretty
weak tea and expensive to maintain. But compared with the weaker foes
they face in Iraq and their influence among Shiite Muslims, these proxies
can do major damage in terms of undermining political reconciliation and
stability and ensuring that Iran remains the most important regional
actor in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria-the areas Tehran really cares about.
Now, consider that in exchange for time-limited restrictions on a nuke
the Iranian government doesn't yet have, it will get billions in
sanctions relief. The exact amount is less important than the capacity
those funds give Tehran to bolster its surrogates... The bottom line is
that President Obama was wrong. Ultimately, success of the nuclear deal
depends on significant changes in Iran's regime at home and its policies
abroad. Without such changes, Iran will not give up its option to
weaponize. And this agreement will leave Tehran with the nuclear
infrastructure to pursue that option should it so choose. Absent some
moderation in these ambitions, the next U.S. president-Democrat or
Republican-might decide that negative Iranian actions-whether within or
outside the parameters of the accord-would be grounds to walk away from
the deal's provisions." http://t.uani.com/1OGXPt1
|
|
Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear
Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive
media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with
discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please
email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
United Against Nuclear
Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a
commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a
regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons. UANI is an
issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own
interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of
nuclear weapons.
|
|
|
No comments:
Post a Comment