Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Eye on Iran: Survey: 2/3 of Natsec Pros Give Iran Deal Thumbs Down






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Defense One: "Just 26 percent of U.S. national security workers believe that the West's nuclear agreement with Iran is good for America, and even fewer think it will help Israel or Saudi Arabia, a new Defense One survey shows. Asked to evaluate the statement 'The Iran nuclear deal is a good deal for the United States,' some 66 percent of responders disagreed - and two-thirds of that group 'strongly disagreed.' The group's outlook was even dimmer about the deal's effect on U.S. allies. Most respondents said that it would have a somewhat or mostly negative impact on the security of Israel (71%), Saudi Arabia (67%), the Gulf Arab states (67%), Jordan (59%), Iraq (58%), and Europe (53%). So what should the U.S. do about it? Some 62 percent said that the U.S. would be better off simply rejecting the deal and keeping current sanctions in place. (31 percent disagreed.) And about half said that the U.S. should compensate by increasing arms sales to countries in the Middle East. (38 percent disagreed.)" http://t.uani.com/1LU7lv2

Al-Monitor: "Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran's Quds Force, a division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in charge of operations outside the country's borders, gave what was billed as 'a special speech' to the Assembly of Experts Sept. 1 to discuss regional matters. Parts of the speech were shared with Iranian news agencies by members of the assembly in attendance. In an interview with Tasnim News Agency, Assembly of Experts member Hojat al-Islam Seyyed Mojtaba Taheri said that Soleimani's speech focused on 'Iraq, Syria, Yemen, America's roles, the enemies of Islam and the presence of [the Islamic State] and takfiris in the region.' Taheri added, 'Gen. Soleimani said that the collapse of American power in the region has happened. He gave the factors for this collapse, and one of the most influential reasons for it is the strong logic of the Islamic Republic of Iran in various arenas.' One of the top headlines in Iranian news agencies this morning read, 'The collapse of American power in the region has happened.' Taheri continued, 'Gen. Soleimani said the spiritual influence of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region has resulted in strengthening the line of resistance and the Islamic Revolution, and for this, America and Israel and their allies have been challenged.'" http://t.uani.com/1fV37F1

Philadelphia Inquirer: "Sens. Robert P. Casey of Pennsylvania and Chris Coons of Delaware, both Democrats, announced their support for the international nuclear agreement with Iran on Tuesday, putting President Obama on the brink of a major victory. The two became the 32d and 33d senators to support the agreement, one shy of the number needed to sustain a potential Obama veto of any congressional resolution to kill the deal... Coons, in a speech at the University of Delaware, expressed deep skepticism of the deal's flaws - 'Frankly, this is not the agreement I had hoped for,' he said - but added that he saw no credible alternative, and real damage from nixing the agreement... In a heavily footnoted paper that aides say he largely wrote himself, Casey wrote that he is 'skeptical' that Iran will uphold its end of the agreement, and that 'one of the most troubling questions' is the idea that billions in sanctions relief for Iran will finance terrorism. Coons noted that the deal will freeze but not dismantle Iran's nuclear program, and worried that Tehran will continue fueling anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment... A Quinnipiac University poll released Aug. 24 showed that Pennsylvania voters oppose the agreement 61 percent to 26 percent. Nationally, voters are against it, 55 percent to 25 percent, according to a Quinnipiac survey released Monday. 'The American people are growing more and more opposed to the deal' as they learn more about it, said Mark Wallace, chief executive of one of the leading group's criticizing the deal, United Against Nuclear Iran. He said the president was twisting Democrats' arms for support and held out hope that votes may change as more information comes out." http://t.uani.com/1EyBSMb

Nuclear Program & Agreement

NYT: "Flexing their muscles, some of the toughest anti-American voices in Iran said on Tuesday that the United States remains their country's top enemy, guilty of 'uncountable' crimes... The head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, announced plans to expand the reach of Iran's missiles and warned that despite the nuclear deal, America was still the 'same Great Satan.' ... 'We should not be cheated by the new slogans of this country,' General Jafari said, referring to the United States, during a speech at the Tehran Sarallah military base, according to the semiofficial Fars News Agency. His remarks were echoed by Mohammad Yazdi, the head of an influential clerical council... 'We should not change our foreign policy of opposition to America, our No. 1 enemy, whose crimes are uncountable,' Mr. Yazdi said in a speech opening an annual meeting of the council, the Assembly of Experts, an 86-member group that in theory has the power to dismiss the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei... Mr. Jafari said the range of missiles - now 2,000 kilometers, about 1,242 miles - would be increased... He also stressed that the Revolutionary Guards would stay involved in the economy as well. 'After over 20 years of engagement in civilian projects, the Revolutionary Guards Corps has enough experience in and we will continue our projects,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1O8pRNE

AP: "Secretary of State John Kerry will send a letter to all members of Congress on Wednesday outlining U.S. security commitments to Israel and the Gulf Arab states in light of the Iran nuclear deal. State Department officials said Tuesday the letter would be sent shortly before Kerry delivers what is being billed as a major policy speech on the Iran agreement in Philadelphia. The officials said the speech, a week before Congress returns to work, will focus on how the deal makes the U.S. and its allies safer. Kerry will also attack what the officials said is a 'mythology' of false claims about what the deal will do. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to preview the speech by name." http://t.uani.com/1hyhaS0

Free Beacon: "Iranian President Hassan Rouhani vowed that the Islamic Republic would violate outstanding United Nations restrictions governing the country's ballistic missile program and that the behavior would not violate the recent nuclear accord, according to a translation of the leader's remarks performed by the CIA's Open Source Center. Iran is 'not committed to the restrictions on its missile program,' according to a recent comment made by Rouhani, who said  a violation of  international restrictions would not impact the nuclear accord recently reached with global powers. 'We have formally announced that we are not committed to these provisions [related to missiles] mentioned in [the] U.N. resolution,' Rouhani was quoted as saying in an Aug. 29 Persian language speech broadcast on Iran's state-controlled television networks. It is written into the nuclear accord that a violation of U.N. bans on Iran's missile program will not impact the deal. Within the deal 'we have explained that a violation of the U.N. resolution does not mean violation of the JCPOA,' or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, according to Rouhani, who bragged that Iran's missile stockpiles have grown under his tenure as president. Critics of the accord have warned that Iran will bolster its missile arsenal and develop technology to launch a nuclear weapon." http://t.uani.com/1N2HbFf

Free Beacon: "A majority of voters from both parties are concerned about aspects of the Iran nuclear deal governing inspections of Tehran's nuclear facilities, according to a survey released Tuesday by the University of Maryland's Program for Public Consultation. Participants in the national 'Citizen Cabinet' survey were presented with a description of the dispute regarding Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program and the principal components of the deal finalized in Vienna on July 14. They were then briefed on critiques of the agreement and subsequent rebuttals to those critiques. Those surveyed were polled on the degree to which they found these criticisms or rebuttals convincing. During a conference call with reporters Tuesday, Dr. Steven Kull, one of the primary investigators on the survey, pointed to the share of participants agreeing with criticism of Iran's nuclear inspections as indicative of the significant concern regarding the transparency of the deal. Particularly, 79 percent of those polled-the highest consensus for any question in the survey-found the following critique convincing." http://t.uani.com/1NXO63f

Congressional Vote


CNN: "In a major victory for President Barack Obama, Democratic Sen. Barbara Mikulski of Maryland announced support for the Iran nuclear deal Wednesday, providing the White House the votes it needs to prevent Republicans from scuttling the agreement. The announcement means that at least 34 senators -- the number required by the Constitution to sustain a veto -- will back Obama in vetoing a Republican resolution to disapprove of the deal. While majorities of both the GOP-controlled House and Senate are expected to vote against the agreement, supporters of the multinational accord that aims to curb Iran's nuclear weapons program are also hoping to get the 41 votes needed to filibuster the bill and prevent it from even getting to a final vote in the Senate. Secretary of State John Kerry said the administration will continue to try and push support for deal past the 34 votes they now have 'until the last moment.' 'Thirty-four votes are obviously enough votes for the president's veto to be upheld,' Kerry told CNN's Christiane Amanpour. 'That is not satisfactory for us. We do want to try to go further. We'll continue to persuade.' That prospect upsets some Republicans who believe the historic agreement deserves a final up-or-down vote." http://t.uani.com/1fV6AUi

The Hill: "Richard Blumenthal is considered one of the Senate's most liberal Democrats, but the Connecticut lawmaker is wavering on the nuclear deal with Iran. As most undecided Senate Democrats fall in line behind President Obama to support the deal, Blumenthal is staying mum. 'I'm still undecided, but I hope to reach a decision some time in the next week or so,' he told The Hill in a phone interview Tuesday. Blumenthal is in a tough spot, caught between opponents of the deal such as former Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and backers that include the White House and every other member of the Connecticut delegation. Adding to the pressure, conservative talk show host Larry Kudlow pledged over the weekend to run against Blumenthal next year if the senator votes to uphold the agreement... Blumenthal told The Hill there are 'a number of downsides' to the nuclear deal, including the billions of dollars that will flow to Iran. He also mentioned the potentially cumbersome mechanism for conducting inspections and 'the potential for nuclear weaponization at the end of 10 or 15 years.' ... That fact that Lieberman - the Democratic Party's nominee for vice president in 2000 - is now leading a group against the deal, United Against Nuclear Iran, is sure to weigh on Blumenthal. He declined to say whether he had spoken with Lieberman." http://t.uani.com/1N2Axif

NYT: "The unease expressed by supporters - including concerns about the possibility that easing sanctions would end up funneling billions of dollars to terrorist groups in the Middle East - underscored the political agony that the nuclear deal has created for lawmakers, particularly Mr. Obama's fellow Democrats. For the president, however, it mattered little how many footnotes, asterisks or other caveats come with the pledges of support... The support from Mr. Coons may prove to be especially important. 'Frankly, this is not the agreement I had hoped for,' he said, echoing doubts he has expressed for weeks. He added that he was troubled by 'different interpretations of key terms' in the agreement. 'I remain deeply concerned about our ability to hold Iran to the terms of this deal as we understand them,' Mr. Coons said, pointing to Iran's 'past cheating' on previous agreements, its support of terrorist groups and its jailing of a reporter for The Washington Post." http://t.uani.com/1KrE1Mz

Sanctions Relief

The Hill: "Secretary of State John Kerry said on Wednesday that international businesses are eager for the market opportunities that Iran presents. 'There are countries chomping at the bit to do business,' he told hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski on MSNBC's 'Morning Joe.' Kerry also said that critics of his landmark nuclear deal with Tehran are mistaken when they argue the deal provides American funding to Iran's coffers. 'It is not our money, it is their money,' he said, noting that any cash assets Iran receives are its own currently frozen via economic sanctions. 'We don't hold it in American banks.' Kerry argued that this economic reality makes congressional approval of President Obama's agreement with Iran essential." http://t.uani.com/1Q8s5xR

Sanctions Enforcement

Detroit Free Press: "Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette on Tuesday issued a letter to governors across the nation asking them to impose or extend their own economic sanctions against Iran, as the Obama administration seeks to lift federal ones as part of an agreement for Iran to scale back its nuclear program. In a letter sent to all 50 governors, Schuette and Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt said the agreement forged between Iran and the U.S. and five other world powers,  which does not require congressional approval, 'cannot bind the states,' which continue to have authority to impose their own restrictions on government spending involving Iran or companies with economic relationships with it. Michigan is one of 25 states to have imposed sanctions against Iran, which prohibits such companies or entities from submitting bids for state work or contracts. 'Iran engages in some of the world's most severe human rights abuses - oppressing women and persecuting people of nearly all faiths, including Jews, Christians and Baha'is,' Schuette said. 'I will enforce Michigan law and opposed lifting any sanctions on Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/1KHZwHs

Terrorism

Reuters: "Kuwait has charged 26 people with possessing weapons and having contacts with Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah group in order to plot attacks against the Gulf state. The case relates to the seizure of an arms cache in Kuwait last month which local newspapers have reported was smuggled in from Iran. State news agency KUNA, quoting a statement from the public prosecutor's office, said that 25 of the suspects were Kuwaiti citizens and one was Iranian. Three of the suspects were at large and the others were ordered to be detained indefinitely... The statement said 24 of the suspects were accused of committing acts likely to affect Kuwait's unity and security. They were also charged with contacting Iran and Hezbollah to carry out hostile acts and stockpiling explosives, automatic weapons, ammunition and listening devices. Twenty two suspects were charged with training in the use of firearms and explosives. An unspecified number were charged with 'joining and calling to join Hezbollah,' which it said sought to undermine the ruling system by force." http://t.uani.com/1EyF3Ua

Extremism

Fars (Iran): "A senior commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said Wednesday that Iran will continue boosting its military preparedness until it takes down Israel and sets Palestine free. '...they (the US and the Zionists) should know that the Islamic Revolution will continue enhancing its preparedness until it overthrows Israel and liberates Palestine,' IRGC's top commander in Tehran province, Brigadier General Mohsen Kazzemeini, told operating units in Tharallah Drills in the Iranian capital on Wednesday. 'And we will continue defending not just our own country, but also all the oppressed people of the world, specially those countries that are standing on the forefront of confrontation with the Zionists,' continued the General... In relevant remarks in 2014, Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei noted that criminal acts of the wolfish and child-killer Zionist regime in Gaza had revealed its true nature, and said, 'Only way to solve this problem is full annihilation and destruction of the Zionist regime.'" http://t.uani.com/1NXLbHO

MEMRI: "On August 17, 2015, just over a month after the announcement of the JCPOA in Vienna, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said in a speech at a conference held by the Iranian Shi'ite Ahl Al-Bayt organization that the U.S. is the embodiment of the enemy of the Islamic peoples and of Iran. It must be fought with military, cultural, economic, and political jihad, he said, adding that Islamic Iran is not interested in reconciling with it. He further claimed that the U.S. is attempting to divide the Islamic world into Shi'ite and Sunni camps that will wage a religious war against each other, and in this way gain it will be able to gain control over the peoples of the region. Iran, he stressed, stands behind the resistance axis, opposes the division of Syria and Iraq, and will continue to support anyone who fights Israel. Following are excerpts from a report on the speech that was posted on Khamenei's website." http://t.uani.com/1JM813j

AFP: "Iranian police have arrested merchants for selling clothing that featured the flags of the United States and Britain, two longtime foes of the Islamic republic, local media reported Tuesday. Garments imprinted with 'Satanic symbols' were also seized from stores in Tehran, city police chief General Hossein Sajedinia was quoted by the ISNA news agency as saying. Sajedinia said reports about the activity had been received in the past two weeks, leading to surveillance and detentions. 'This morning we took these clothes off leading distributors,' he said, noting that any stores that sell such items 'will be closed.'" http://t.uani.com/1O8ssqQ

RFE/RL: "New 'Death to America' graffiti has appeared, disappeared, and reappeared on the walls of the former U.S. Embassy in Tehran in recent days, according to reports and photographs published by Iranian media. Graffiti reading 'Death To America 2015' had appeared recently in the Iranian capital at a time when hard-liners are emphasizing that the nuclear deal reached between Tehran and world powers will not end their hostility toward the United States. The reported removal of the graffiti from the walls of the former U.S. Embassy and other locations in Tehran raised eyebrows among many Iranians and Iran watchers who have grown accustomed to state-commissioned murals and other public art with anti-American messages. Fardanews.com, which over the weekend posted pictures showing a man painting over the graffiti, said the move was part of an effort to keep Tehran clean... Finally, on September 1, Fardanews.com said the 'Death to America' slogans are back on the walls of the former U.S. Embassy, but this time they did not mention any specific year." http://t.uani.com/1L4YsJm

AP: "More than a dozen hard-line Iranian students have unveiled an anti-American plaque at the gate of the former U.S. Embassy in Tehran. The plaque unveiled Wednesday by the Basij paramilitary forces carries a list of condemnations of America uttered by the Islamic republic's late founder, Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. During the gathering, the students set fire to U.S., British and Israeli flags." http://t.uani.com/1Xg2Q1t
 
Human Rights

AFP: "Iran's judiciary chief has urged the U.S. not to interfere in cases of detained Americans, days after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said a jailed Marine should be freed. Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani's remarks followed the fourth anniversary of Amir Hekmati's imprisonment in Tehran on what Kerry called 'false espionage charges.' Hekmati was visiting relatives in the Islamic Republic when he was arrested. Larijani, quoted in Iranian media Tuesday, said Iran examined legal cases 'including those accused of spying for America, with absolute composure and dignity, based on duty and procedure. 'The judiciary does not need American officials to write prescriptions for it,' Larijani said. 'Our advice to them is not to hype [such matters] up uselessly.' In his remarks Friday, Kerry called Hekmati's detention 'unjust' and also renewed his call for Iran to release two other Americans." http://t.uani.com/1UmKblC

Al-Monitor: "Iranians were hopeful when President Hassan Rouhani's administration came into office. But two years into the government's term, many civil society organizations have yet to see a change in their situation. Moreover, some have even received treatment similar to that experienced under the previous administration of Principlist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The Iranian Teachers' Trade Association (ITTA) is one of these organizations. After having staged continuous rallies to voice its demands for improved conditions, ITTA and its members have received nothing but rough treatment at the hands of the authorities." http://t.uani.com/1PLgP9V

IHR: "One prisoner on death row allegedly charged with kidnapping, armed robbery and rape was executed in public in the city of Bandar Abbas." http://t.uani.com/1JNaQwO

Opinion & Analysis

Robert Satloff in The Hill: "Congratulations, senators. You have fended off both advocates and critics of the Iran nuclear agreement and are among the few remaining 'undecideds.' You have built up leverage. How will you use it? Since you are undecided, you don't consider the deal either brilliant or imbecilic. Rather, you recognize its achievements but also shake your heads at its flaws. You've heard the argument that scuttling the deal may ultimately leave America more isolated than Iran, but you also know from your years on foreign relations, intelligence and armed services committees that the agreement carries huge risks for U.S. and allied interests. Deep down, you would like to improve the deal by closing loopholes and strengthening deterrence that has been eroded by the administration's eagerness to get across the finish line. You have been impressed by suggestions on how to achieve this goal unilaterally by the U.S. government or jointly with our European allies, i.e., without even opening the agreement for renegotiation... The problem is how to get the president to accept these sensible ideas. So far, he has rejected any suggestion that he needs to improve the deal. The most likely reason for this is simply that doesn't have to. After all, the bar for political success is very low - just one-third-plus-one of either house of Congress - and the White House believes it is winning. The question for you is how to use your vote to improve the deal. As you consider this, please beware of falling into the same trap that the president himself fell into with the Iranians. How did Iran get an agreement that gives it full sanctions-relief within a year, ends ballistic missile and weapons bans, and provides it with a path to near-zero breakout toward a nuclear weapon down the road? It is all about leverage. The moment it was clear that Obama feared the repercussions of U.S. or Israeli military action against Iran more than he feared legitimizing what will ultimately be an industrial-sized nuclear program for Iran, the die was cast. You are in a similar position. If you want the president to take you seriously, you have to retain the leverage that he frittered away. That means convincing the president your need for a 'better deal' trumps your fear of the deal's collapse. Only your firm demand for a 'better deal' will force the president to confront an unpalatable choice: Does he prefer to improve the deal or watch it fail? If the president believes his own argument about the catastrophic implications of voting down the deal, he will choose to improve it. Maintaining this position isn't easy. It means threatening to vote 'yes' on cloture and, ultimately, threatening to vote to disapprove the agreement. In the end, you may need to follow through on these threats. Along the way, you have to give the president absolutely no reason to think your threat is just a bluff. To paraphrase an old ad, if you have come this far, then leverage is a terrible thing to waste." http://t.uani.com/1NXRprl

Patrick Clawson in WINEP: "The Obama administration has long overstated the extent to which economic sanctions froze Iranian assets and the impact these actions had on the regime. Now the administration is facing the flip side of that overstatement, as critics of the nuclear deal exaggerate how much will be unfrozen and what that will mean for Tehran's ability to fund dangerous actors and activities in the region. Some Iranian assets are frozen, that is, they cannot be used by their owners (whether the Iranian government or other entities). The Treasury Department's most recent 'Terrorist Assets Report' cites $1.973 billion of Iranian financial assets frozen in the United States, and $19 million of unfrozen assets (e.g., funds belonging to Iran's UN mission, which are protected by diplomatic immunity). Due to problems evaluating the worth of real estate, the report's figures do not include tangible property (e.g., 650 Fifth Avenue in New York City, a building worth at least $800 million, which a court has ordered frozen). Other Iranian assets are subject to such heavy restrictions that they might as well be frozen. When the EU adopted tight restrictions on financial transactions with the Islamic Republic, Iranian banks and companies could not access money they had in Europe or were owed by Europeans. A prominent example is the $2.3 billion that Shell says it owes the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) for crude supplies delivered before the restrictions took effect (oil is typically paid for thirty or more days after delivery). But the largest funds often described as frozen are those held in the central banks of countries to which Iran has recently been selling oil, especially China, Japan, India, and South Korea. These assets total at least $50 billion, and by some accounts more. Iranians are learning how to use these funds to purchase items in the countries where they are being held; that is, most of the restrictions only prevent use of the money to buy goods from third countries. Both Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew and Central Bank of Iran (CBI) governor Valiollah Seif have stated that $20 billion or more of these restricted funds are already committed for future Iranian purchases, arguing that this money should not be included in any calculation of assets that will become available to Iran once the nuclear deal is implemented. A different way of interpreting this fact is that the funds in question were never really frozen in the first place, illustrating how Iran retained substantial access to foreign markets well before the nuclear deal was signed. This is especially true in the case of China: Iranians have been able to spend more than $20 billion of oil revenues held in Chinese banks, using them to purchase Chinese goods and services." http://t.uani.com/1VwjJDd
         

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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