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NATO
Allies Making It Easier for Iran to Attack Israel
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U.S.
Patriot missiles in Gaziantep, Turkey
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In early 2013, NATO supposedly came to its ally's help: As Turkey was
under threat from Syrian missiles -- potentially with biological/chemical
warheads -- the alliance would build a mini anti-missile defense
architecture on Turkish soil. Six U.S.-made Patriot missile batteries
would be deployed in three Turkish cities and protect a vast area where about
3.5 million Turks lived.
The Patriot batteries that would protect Turkey from Syrian missiles
belonged to the United States, Germany and the Netherlands. In early
2015, the Dutch mission ended and was replaced by Spanish Patriots.
Recently, the German government said that it would withdraw its Patriot
batteries and 250 troops at the beginning of 2016. Almost simultaneously,
the U.S. government informed Turkey that its Patriot mission, expiring in
October, would not be renewed. Washington cited
"critical modernization upgrades" for the withdrawal.
Iran views defensive NATO assets
in Turkey as a threat to its offensive missile capabilities.
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Since the air defense system was stationed on Turkish soil, it
unnerved Iran more than it did Syria. There is a story behind this.
First, Patriot missiles cannot protect large swaths of land, but only
designated friendly sites or installations in their vicinity. That the
six batteries would protect Turkey's entire south and 3.5 million people
living there was a tall tale. They would instead protect a U.S.-owned, NATO-assigned
radar deployed earlier in Kurecik, a Turkish town; and they would
protect it not from Syrian missiles with chemical warheads, but from
Iranian ballistic missiles.
Kurecik seemed to matter a lot to Iran. In November 2011, Iran
threatened that it would target NATO's missile defense shield in
Turkey, "and then hit the next targets" (read Israel), if it
were threatened. Shortly before the arrival of Patriots in Turkey, Iran's
army chief of staff warned
NATO that stationing Patriot anti-missile batteries in Turkey was
"setting the stage for world war."
What was stationed in Kurecik was an early-warning missile detection
and tracking radar system. Its mission is to provide U.S. naval assets in
the Mediterranean with early warning and tracking information in case of
an Iranian missile launch that might target an ally or a friendly
country, including Israel. So, a six-battery Patriot shield to protect
the NATO radar in Kurecik against possible Iranian aggression was
necessary. And that explains why the Iranians went mad about Kurecik and
openly threatened to hit it.
NATO and Turkish officials have always denied any link between the
Patriot missiles and the NATO radar in Turkey. They have often pointed
out that the Patriot batteries were stationed in the provinces of Adana,
Kahramanmaras and Gaziantep, while Kurecik was in nearby Malatya
province. But the Patriot is a road-mobile system: It can be dismantled
easily and re-deployed in another area in a matter of hours (the road
distance between Kurecik and Kahramanmaras is a mere 200 kilometers, or
124 miles).
Clearly, Iran did not go mad and threaten to hit all NATO
installations in Turkey because it wanted 3.5 million Turkish citizens to
die from the chemical warhead of a Syrian missile. It went mad and
threatened because it viewed the defensive NATO assets in Turkey as a
threat to its offensive missile capabilities, which the Patriots could
potentially neutralize.
Is it a coincidence that the U.S.
and Germany decided to pull their Patriots from Turkey after signing
the Iran nuclear deal?
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Why, otherwise, would a country feel "threatened" and
threaten others with starting a "world war" just because a
bunch of defensive systems are deployed in a neighboring country? Iran
did so because it views the NATO radar in Turkey as an asset that could
counter any missile attack on Israel; and the Patriots as hostile
elements because they would protect that radar. In a way, Iran's reaction
to the NATO assets in Turkey revealed its intentions to attack.
It could be a total coincidence that the U.S. and Germany (most likely
to be followed by Spain) have decided to pull their Patriot batteries and
troops from Turkey shortly after agreeing to a nuclear deal with Iran.
But if it is a coincidence, it is a very suspicious one. In theory, the
Patriot systems were deployed in Turkey in order to protect the NATO ally
from missile threats from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime.
Right? Right.
Assad's regime is still alive in Damascus and it has the same missile
arsenal it had in 2013. Moreover, Turkey's cold war with Assad's Syria is
worse than it was in 2013, with Ankara systematically supporting every
opposition group and openly declaring that it is pushing for Assad's
downfall. Why were Assad's missiles a threat to Turkey two and a half
years ago, but are not today?
The Patriot missiles are leaving Turkey. They no longer will
"protect Turkish soil."
Apparently, NATO allies believe, although the idea defies logic, that
the nuclear deal with Iran will discourage the mullahs in Tehran from
attacking Israel.
It looks as if the NATO heavyweights' decision is more a gesture to
Iran than to Turkey.
Burak Bekdil is an Ankara-based
columnist for the Turkish daily Hürriyet and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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