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WSJ:
"Iran has responded to Western pressure by stepping up at the last
minute what had been very limited cooperation with a probe by United
Nations atomic agency inspectors into its past nuclear work, diplomats
familiar with the investigation say. It is unclear if Iran's response
will be enough to answer some long-standing questions from the
International Atomic Energy Agency into whether Iran had pursued nuclear
weapons, something Tehran has always said it wasn't doing. The probe,
which continued with discussions this week between senior IAEA and
Iranian officials, is supposed to be completed Thursday. In the past two
weeks, after Iran had largely brushed off serious questions about its
past nuclear activities, the IAEA and some Western governments directly warned
Tehran that it must increase cooperation if it wanted IAEA board members
to conclude it had sufficiently addressed their concerns. The board must
decide in mid-December, based on a report by Director General Yukiya
Amano, whether Tehran has done enough for the nuclear agreement Iran
signed in July with six world powers to proceed... Many Western diplomats
are pessimistic, however. Until last week, they say, Iran had tightly
restricted access to key people and places and offered few new
explanations of its past nuclear work. It continued to stand largely
behind its customary answer that much of the evidence amassed by the
agency that Tehran once sought to develop nuclear weapons technology was
forged. 'It was the degree of cooperation we expected,' one senior
Western diplomat said, 'which was minimalist.'" http://t.uani.com/1LOTmRN
Reuters:
"Iran has given the U.N. nuclear watchdog what it needs to assess
whether Tehran's past activities had anything to do with nuclear weapons,
the agency said on Thursday, a further step towards implementing a deal
between Tehran and world powers. The deal struck in July calls for the
lifting of sanctions in exchange for restrictions on Iran's nuclear
activities. Under a roadmap agreement reached along with that deal, Iran
had to provide by Thursday the cooperation necessary for the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to complete an assessment of
Iran's activities by Dec. 15. 'In the period to 15 October 2015,
activities set out in the 'road-map for the clarification of past and
present outstanding issues regarding Iran's nuclear program' were
completed,' the IAEA said in a statement. It added that the agency would
provide its assessment by Dec. 15, as expected." http://t.uani.com/1LP2QfK
Politico:
"Iran's launch of a new long-range surface-to-air missile last
weekend violated existing United Nations Security Council resolutions,
the United States' ambassador to the U.N. said Wednesday. 'If the facts
are as we believe them to be, it would violate U.N. Security Council resolutions,'
Samantha Power said, speaking at Fortune's Most Powerful Women summit in
Washington. 'In contrast to the repeated violations of the U.N. Security
Council resolution that pertains to their ballistic missile activities,
we've seen that Iran over the last couple of years has demonstrated a
track record of abiding by the commitments that they've made in the
context of the nuclear talks. And there was a lot of skepticism,' White
House press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters Tuesday. The State Department
also said that it would bring the matter up at the Security Council.
Power went on to say that one of the 'really important features' of the
existing nuclear agreement with Iran will be 'enforcement of the
resolutions and standards' that are already in place. Asked whether
Iran's action would affect the agreement going into effect this weekend,
Power said, 'I think we have to walk and chew gum at the same
time.'" http://t.uani.com/1PvcSIE
Nuclear Program
& Agreement
Reuters:
"Iran's test of a ballistic missile earlier this week was a clear
violation of a U.N. Security Council resolution and sends 'a worrying
message', French Foreign Ministry spokesman Romain Nadal said on
Thursday. Iran tested a new precision-guided ballistic missile on Sunday in
defiance of a United Nations ban, signaling an apparent advance in
Iranian attempts to improve the accuracy of its missile arsenal. 'The
Oct. 11 launch constitutes a clear violation of this resolution (1929).
It is a worrying message from Iran to the international community,' Nadal
told reporters in a daily briefing. Ballistic missile tests by Iran are
banned under Security Council resolution 1929, which dates from 2010 and
remains valid until a nuclear deal dating from July 14 this year goes
into effect. Once the deal takes effect, Iran will still be 'called upon'
not to undertake any work on ballistic missiles designed to deliver
nuclear weapons for a period of up to eight years, according to a
Security Council resolution adopted in July." http://t.uani.com/1GeQWiY
AFP:
"Iranian state television broadcast unprecedented footage Wednesday
of a deep underground tunnel packed with missiles and launcher units,
which officials said could be used if 'enemies make a mistake'. The
pictures were released just three days after Iran tested a new long-range
missile that the United States said may have breached a UN Security
Council resolution... The tunnel, hundreds of metres (yards) long and
about 10 metres high, was filled with missiles and hardware. Brigadier
General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Islamic Republic's
Revolutionary Guards' aerospace division, said numerous such tunnels
exist across the country at a depth of 500 metres. 'The Islamic
republic's long-range missile bases are stationed and ready under the
high mountains in all the country's provinces and cities,' he said,
according to the Guards' website. The commander said the missiles were
ready to be launched from all over Iran, on the order of 'the supreme
commander-in-chief', Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 'This is a sample of our
massive missile bases,' he said, adding that 'a new and advanced
generation of long-range liquid and solid fuel missiles' would start to
replace the current weapons next year. The commander seemed to suggest
the show of strength was in response to Western powers, especially the
US, which despite the nuclear deal, have said options against Iran,
including the military one, remain on the table. 'Those who pin hope on
options on the table, should only have a look at the Islamic republic's
army options under the table.' Hajizadeh said Iran would not start any
war but 'if enemies make a mistake, missile bases will erupt like a
volcano from the depth of earth.'" http://t.uani.com/1RcNpCr
Mehr (Iran):
"For the very first time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC) has allowed footage of one of the country's missile launch
facilities located 500m underground to be released to state media.
According to IRGC Aerospace Force Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh,
long-range missiles in all bases are assembled on the launcher, ready to
hit targets should the country come under attack. According to Hajizadeh,
the base as one of hundreds of underground missile launch pads, is 'only
the tip of iceberg.'" http://t.uani.com/1G7xlBD
Military Matters
Reuters:
"China wants to deepen military ties with Iran, a senior Chinese
admiral was quoted as saying on Thursday after a meeting with Iran's
defense minister in Tehran. Admiral Sun Jianguo, deputy chief of staff of
the People's Liberation Army, told Iranian Defence Minister Hossein
Dehghan that China paid great attention to developing relations with
Iran, China's Defence Ministry said. 'The aim of this delegation's visit
is to further promote friendship, deepen cooperation and exchange views
with Iran on bilateral military ties and issues of mutual concern,' Sun
said, according to the statement. The trip will also 'promote the
preservation of international and regional peace and stability', he
added... Last year, for the first time ever, two Chinese warships docked
at Iran's Bandar Abbas port to take part in a joint naval exercises in
the Gulf and an Iranian admiral was given tours of a Chinese submarine
and warships." http://t.uani.com/1OxiMKe
Sanctions Relief
Press TV (Iran):
"Iran says it will soon sign a major deal with German automaker
Mercedes-Benz over production of medium-duty diesel engines. Gholam-Reza
Razzazi, the managing director of Iranian Diesel Engine Manufacturing
(IDEM), told reporters that the cooperation with Mercedes-Benz will specifically
involve the production of Arna mini-trucks as well as Arian mini-buses -
both IDEM's upcoming products. Razzazi added that both vehicles will be
equipped with the Mercedes-Benz Engine (MBE) 900 engine. He said IDEM -
which is a subsidiary of the country's key auto brand Iran Khodro - and
Mercedes-Benz will also cooperate over the production of the German
manufacturer's flagship truck brand named Actros." http://t.uani.com/1GInBIJ
Nikkei:
"Nissan Motor and other Japanese automakers are looking to restart
exports to Iran as the prospect of sanctions relief grows stronger.
Nissan has informed parts suppliers that it may resume shipments to the
Middle Eastern nation for the first time since 2013 sometime next spring.
It would send so-called knockdown kits, to be assembled locally, rather
than finished autos. The automaker appears to be looking to export enough
of these kits for several thousand vehicles a year. Suzuki Motor is
readying to ramp up exports of auto components for assembly in Iran. The
company began producing around 4,000 sport-utility vehicles a year there
in 2005, but the sanctions have reduced this output to a trickle since
2012. Suzuki is considering introducing new models to the Iranian market
once the sanctions are lifted. Isuzu Motors plans to resume exports of
light trucks and other models to Iran once that happens. Toyota Motor
will consider a restart of exports to Iran in earnest after the sanctions
end. Japan's biggest automaker halted shipments of passenger cars to that
country in 2010. It had sold a few hundred vehicles there a year,
including the Land Cruiser, through local dealers. New-auto sales in Iran
totaled about 1.1 million last year and are expected to reach 1.6 million
in 2020 assuming the sanctions are lifted, according to IHS Automotive, a
U.S. research company. Mazda Motor resumed exports of some autoparts to
Iran this past April in response to an easing of U.S. and European
sanctions. The company had halted shipments in 2013. It is now supplying
knockdown kits for the Mazda3 compact car and pickup trucks as well as
replacement parts. About 1,000 of the Mazda3 sold in Iran last year.
Mazda will consider expanding exports to the country." http://t.uani.com/1LuhWLR
Nikkei:
"More than 300 companies worldwide, including triple as many from
Japan as last year, have gathered here for Iran's biggest trade fair,
seeking opportunities for growth in this vast Middle Eastern market
poised for relief from Western economic sanctions. Among the 18 Japanese
companies exhibiting at this year's event is Nippon Steel & Sumitomo
Metal, whose wares include seamless pipe for the oil and gas industry.
NEC, which did business with the Iranian telecom sector before the
sanctions, had network equipment and other technology on display. Both companies
aim to rekindle business in Iran. Others, like Fuji Manufacturing, are
hopeful newcomers. Based in the city of Fujioka, northwest of Tokyo, the
smallish unlisted company supplies machines that make instant noodles.
'With Iran's population approaching 80 million,' a representative said,
'its demand for food will grow.' A Japanese delegation of representatives
from 30 companies and other organizations visited the Iranian capital
Tuesday, headed by Hiroyuki Ishige, chairman of the Japan External Trade
Organization." http://t.uani.com/1LbaTGs
Nikkei:
"Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida urged Iranian President
Hassan Rouhani on Tuesday to hold up his country's end of a nuclear
agreement with six world powers... Japanese companies, some of which sent
representatives to accompany Kishida here, are keen on doing business in
this resource-rich nation of 78 million people. 'We expect to see
considerable demand for capital spending once the sanctions are lifted,'
said Makoto Fusayama, Toyo Engineering chairman. Takahisa Miyauchi,
senior executive vice president of trading house Mitsubishi Corp.,
welcomed the progress toward the investment pact, which will allow Japan
'to discuss investment protection openly with the Iranian side.' 'Having
a certain level of protection,' an automotive industry executive said,
'will make the Iranian market easier to navigate.'" http://t.uani.com/1jAiG7o
Reuters:
"South Korea's crude oil imports from Iran jumped 43 percent in
September from a year ago, though shipments in the first nine months of
2015 fell 4.5 percent, reflecting sanctions restricting buying over
Tehran's nuclear programme. The world's fifth-largest crude importer
brought 800,111 tonnes of Iranian crude in September, or 195,494 barrels
per day (bpd), compared with 558,357 tonnes, a year ago, preliminary data
from its customs office showed on Thursday... Seoul bought 4.58 million
tonnes, or 123,078 bpd, of crude from Tehran in January-September, versus
4.80 million tonnes in the same period in 2014, the data showed." http://t.uani.com/1KbqyBH
Bloomberg:
"The world is awash in crude, but big oil companies are lining up to
develop new fields in Iran even as they slash spending and abandon
exploration elsewhere. One thing explains this paradox: cost. The Middle
Eastern country is one of the cheapest places in the world to tap new oil
fields and pump from existing wells. The slump in crude prices makes Iran
even more attractive to investors, assuming its nuclear deal with world
powers leads to an easing of sanctions, said the International Energy
Agency. 'Costs are low because they have giant fields which produce
economies of scale, the terrain is mostly straightforward and reservoirs
are highly prolific,' Robin Mills, a Dubai-based analyst at Manaar Energy
Consulting, said by e-mail. If prices stay low, production costs could
drop even further in Iran and its neighbor Iraq, he said. Cheaper barrels
are a significant lure to companies as they eliminate jobs and defer
expensive projects following a 40 percent plunge in oil prices in the
past year... While the cost of developing a field in Canada or the U.S.
can range from $59 to $114 a barrel, the expense in Iran doesn't exceed
$31, the IEA said in an Oct. 13 report... Companies looking at
re-entering Iran also need to weigh the political risk, said Manaar's
Mills. Even after sanctions are lifted, investors will still face the
danger restrictions will 'snap-back' if Iran is perceived as breaking its
side of the deal. This provision could be a 'major problem' for lenders
financing projects there, according to Francisco Blanch, global head of
commodities research at Bank of America Corp." http://t.uani.com/1jqxYMB
Syria Conflict
AFP:
"Iran is willing to send fighters to key ally Syria if Damascus
requests them, a senior Iranian official said Thursday on a visit to the
war-torn country... 'If Syria makes a request (for Iranian forces), we
will study the request and make a decision,' said Alaedin Boroujerdi, the
chairman of the Iranian parliament's national security and foreign policy
committee. 'What's important is that Iran is serious about the fight
against terrorism,' he added. 'We have supplied aid and weapons and sent
advisors to Syria and Iraq.' ... Boroujerdi has been in Syria for three
days and met Thursday morning with Assad to express Iran's continuing
support for the government in Damascus. He also slammed the US-led
coalition that has been carrying out air strikes in Syria since last
year, saying it had 'failed despite billions of dollars.'" http://t.uani.com/1jqwBxr
Long War Journal:
"Major General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guards Corps - Qods Force, has been seen addressing Iranian
military officers and members of Lebanese Hezbollah in western Syria. In
the past, the leader of Iran's expeditionary special operations forces
has been spotted on key battlefields in Iraq and Syria prior to the
launch of major operations against jihadist groups such as the Islamic
State. Recent images of Soleimani (above) appeared on social media sites such
as Twitter. His presence in the western province of Latakia in Syria was
confirmed by Reuters. According to the news service, Soleimani was
'addressing Iranian officers and Hezbollah fighters with a microphone,
wearing dark clothes as he spoke to the men in camouflage.'" http://t.uani.com/1hGtKi0
Times of Israel:
"Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the country's
expeditionary al-Quds Force, visited the Syrian side of the Golan in
recent days, The Times of Israel has learned. Soleimani, a powerful
figure thought to be at the forefront of Iranian fighting abroad, is in
Syria to oversee a new offensive by Iranian and Assad regime troops meant
to help the government retake large swaths of the country's north. His
visit to the Golan, near the border with Israel, was apparently intended
to boost morale of Syrian and Hezbollah forces - the latter loyal to
Iran's regime - after a series of setbacks against the 'southern front'
of rebel groups in the area. By Wednesday, Soleimani was in the Latakia
province, on the Mediterranean coast north of Lebanon, from which the
northern operation is expected to launch, backed by the recent influx of
Russian air power." http://t.uani.com/1Lc8fAb
Human Rights
ICHRI:
"A Tehran Revolutionary Court has sentenced the poets Fatemeh
Ekhtesari and Mehdi Moosavi to 9 years and 6 months and 99 lashes, and 11
years and 99 lashes, respectively, on charges of 'insulting the sacred'
for the social criticism expressed in their poetry. The flogging
sentences were a result of the charge of 'illegitimate sexual
relationship short of adultery,' for shaking hands with strangers (a
person of the opposite sex who is not one's immediate kin or spouse),
according to Amir Raeesian, the lawyer representing Ms. Ekhtesari and Mr.
Moosavi, who spoke with the International Campaign for Human Rights in
Iran. 'These sentences show that repression in Iran is intensifying,'
said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the International Campaign for
Human Rights in Iran. 'Hardliners aren't just going after political
activists, they are determined to stamp out any social or cultural
expression with which they disagree.' The Campaign has learned that a
third individual, the filmmaker Kayvan Karimi, was sentenced to 6 years
in prison and 223 lashes on similar charges... The convictions in the two
poets' case were also based on forced false confessions, a routine
practice in Iran in politically motivated cases in which there is no
evidence against the defendant." http://t.uani.com/1MrY0pr
Guardian:
"A 76-year-old British national has been held in an Iranian jail for
more than four years and convicted of spying, his family has revealed, as
they seek to draw attention to the plight of a man they describe as one
of the 'oldest and loneliest prisoners in Iran'. Kamal Foroughi, a
businessman who was working in Tehran as a consultant for the Malaysian
national oil and gas company Petronas, was arrested in May 2011 when
plainclothes officers picked him up from his flat in the Iranian capital.
They did not show a warrant for his arrest, according to his family.
Foroughi was held at the notorious Evin prison and eventually sentenced
in 2013 to a total of eight years' imprisonment, which he is still
serving in Evin. The news about his arrest has only just come to light
after his family decided to break their silence... Foroughi's consultancy
role at Petronas included arranging and participating in meetings with
senior Iranian oil and gas officials and facilitating scholarships for
Iranian students on a government bursary to study in Malaysia." http://t.uani.com/1RK2IDu
Amnesty:
"A recent revelation by satirical cartoonist Atena Farghadani that
she was forced to undergo a 'virginity and pregnancy test', prior to her
trial for a charge of 'illegitimate sexual relations' for shaking hands
with her lawyer, has added another stain on Iran's shameful record of
violence against women, Amnesty International said today. In a note
written by Atena Farghadani leaked from prison, which has been seen by
Amnesty International, she says the judicial authorities took her to a
medical centre outside the prison on 12 August 2015 and forced her to
submit to the tests, purportedly with the purpose of investigating the
charge against her. 'It is shocking that on top of imposing a ludicrous charge
on Atena Farghadani for the 'crime' of shaking hands with her lawyer, the
Iranian authorities have forced her to undergo a 'virginity and pregnancy
test',' said Said Boumedouha, Deputy Director of Amnesty International's
Middle East and North Africa Programme. 'In doing so, the Iranian
judicial authorities have truly reached an outrageous low, seeking to
exploit the stigma attached to sexual and gender-based violence in order
to intimidate, punish or harass her.'" http://t.uani.com/1Pjac1Q
Amnesty:
"Reports have emerged of a second execution of a juvenile offender
in Iran in just a few days Amnesty International said today, which reveal
the full horror of the country's deeply flawed juvenile justice system.
Fatemeh Salbehi, a 23-year-old woman, was hanged yesterday for a crime
she allegedly committed when she was 17, only a few days after another
juvenile offender, Samad Zahabi, was hanged for a crime he also committed
at 17. Fatemeh Salbehi was hanged in Shiraz's prison in Fars Province
despite Iran being bound by an absolute international legal ban on
juvenile executions, and severe flaws in her trial and appeal. She had
been sentenced to death in May 2010 for the murder of her 30- year- old
husband, Hamed Sadeghi, whom she had been forced to marry at the age of
16... This underlines the importance of the clear provision in the UN
Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC), which is binding on Iran,
that no death sentences may be imposed for offences committed by
individuals under the age of 18." http://t.uani.com/1NJja8o
IHR:
"According to official and unofficial sources, Iranian authorities
hanged a prisoner on Sunday October 11 and a total of 17 prisoners the
following day." http://t.uani.com/1ZFHyeR
Opinion &
Analysis
WSJ Editorial:
"President Obama and his foreign-policy admirers-a dwindling
lot-hoped that the nuclear deal would make Iran more open to cooperation
in the Middle East and with the U.S. Mark this down as another case in
which the world is disappointing the American President. Iran's judiciary
on Monday announced that Jason Rezaian, the Washington Post's Tehran
correspondent, has been convicted. He was on trial for 'espionage.'
Security forces arrested Mr. Rezaian and his wife, journalist Yeganeh
Salehi, in July 2014. Ms. Salehi was later released, but the regime has
held Mr. Rezaian 'in a black hole for 14 months,' as his brother, Ali,
told us. Mr. Rezaian, a U.S. citizen, has been denied even the basic
rights the regime sometimes affords political prisoners, including bail
and phone calls. The timing of the conviction won't escape students of
history. Friday was the 444th day of his captivity. That was the number
of days U.S. diplomats in Iran spent as hostages following the 1979
Islamic Revolution. Mr. Rezaian's conviction three days later is the
mullah equivalent of mailing a dead fish to an adversary. Mr. Rezaian's
brother also told us that 'I'd like the U.S. government to say [about
Jason's detention]: This kind of behavior has consequences. Up to now
this has had no consequences. What have been the consequences? It hasn't
stopped them from getting their nuclear deal. And it hasn't stopped them
from getting over half a billion a month in sanctions relief since we
started talking to them.' ... On Sunday the regime tested a new long-range,
guided ballistic missile code-named Emad ('Pillar') in violation of the
nuclear deal. United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231-which
passed shortly after the agreement to harmonize its provisions with
international law-prohibits Iran from conducting ballistic-missile work
for eight years. But the mullahs are nothing if not impatient, and the
Islamic Republic has already made clear that it doesn't intend to abide
by the provisions of Resolution 2231 it dislikes. Testifying before the
Senate over the summer, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry repeatedly
vowed to sanction Iran if it cheated on missiles. Well, here's an early
test case, Mr. Secretary. The more likely outcome is that the Obama
Administration will find a way to explain that the missile test doesn't
violate the nuclear accord that Mr. Obama considers a crowning
achievement. Meanwhile, Iran's government will bank up to $150 billion
that it can deploy to back its militia proxies in the Middle East. Add
the new Iran-Russia offensive in Syria, and Tehran would appear to have
taken the nuclear deal as a signal that it can now do whatever it wants
without consequence." http://t.uani.com/1VU1ZAa
Phillip Smyth in The
Daily Beast: "With the aid of Russian airstrikes,
Iranian-backed foreign fighters, and a combination of Syrian dictator
Bashar al-Assad's regular and militia forces are on the march. Yet Iran
and its proxies have taken some significant high-ranking casualties since
the start of their recruitment and deployment drives to Syria. These
losses all serve to map out the current offensive being launched in the
northwest of the country, including Idlib, Hama, and Aleppo. While other
significant losses had been suffered in past engagements, deaths of key
members were often more sporadic or concentrated on one group during a
specific battle. If the goal is to secure an Assad-led coastal Syrian
rump-state, it is coming at high cost to Assad's Iranian ally. The most
well known of Tehran's casualties was the 67-year-old Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) brigadier general, Hossein Hamedani.
Announced as having been killed on October 9, Hamedi was reportedly
killed in Aleppo. Officially, he was described by the Iranians as a
'high-ranking military advisor' to Assad. But to write Hamedani off as
merely an 'advisor' would be the equivalent of referring to Napoleon as
just 'a French general.' Hamedani's career spanned the decades as a true
believer in Ayatollah Khomeini's radical Islamic Revolution in Iran. In
the early days of the Islamic Republic of Iran and like his cohort, IRGC
Quds Force leader Qassem Suleimani, Hamedani received his baptism by fire
combating insurgents in Iranian Kurdistan and fought in the Iran-Iraq
War. Additionally, he had served as deputy commander in the IRGC-controlled
Iranian militia known as the Basij. More recently, Hamedani was a key
figure involved in suppressing Iran's Green Movement, which protested the
rigged 2009 presidential election. According to Iranian publications,
Hamedani later went on to operate out of Najaf, Iraq. Hamedani was also
one of the more vocal IRGC leadership elements operating in Syria. While
IRGC involvement in Syria is general knowledge, Tehran often masks their
intervention. Still, on May 2014, Hamedani announced IRGC involvement in
the conflict, and went so far as to say that thousands of IRGC and Basij
would be sent to Syria. In 2014 he remarked, 'today we fight in Syria for
interests such as the Islamic Revolution.' In Syria, Hamedani's expertise
in spreading Iran's Islamic Revolution, combating insurgent elements, and
propping up local strongmen truly gleamed. In his last interview, the
IRGC leader noted that with his assistance, Iran had been able to not
only spread Iranian ideological influence, build up Assad's forces, and
extensively push back anti-Assad elements. In other obituaries, it was
also claimed he had participated in 80 'major operations' to help further
these goals. Praising the IRGC and Basij while gloating over the
expansive presence Iran had gained in the region, in 2014 Hamedani told
Iranian veterans of the Iran-Iraq War, 'know that by establishing the
Basij the third child of the revolution is being born in Iraq after Syria
and Lebanon. It is no longer just Iran that says 'Down with America.' All
nations are in unison and are shouting the slogan.' With the loss of
Hamedani came the loss of a major leadership element within the IRGC, one
Tehran will not likely be able to regain. Still, Hamedani was not the
last IRGC commander to have met his end in Syria in the past few days. On
October 12, two more IRGC brigadier generals were slain. Farshid
Hasounizadeh and Hamid Mukhtarband were former commanders of the Sabreen
and 1 Brigades, respectively. While Hamedani was the recipient large
memorial celebration by Lebanese Hezbollah, Iran's 'first among equals'
in terms of proxy groups, Hezbollah itself has also been suffering
leadership losses in Syria. Announced killed on October 10, Hassan
Hussein al-Hajj (aka Abu Muhammad al-Iqleem/Al-Hajj Maher) was a vaunted
Hezbollah commander, one who the pro-Hezbollah Al-Akhbar named as one of
the most, 'prominent leaders of the Resistance [a euphemism for Hezbollah
and other Iranian-controlled organizations].' Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-linked Fars News showcased Hajj's role
claimed he was involved in 'Major operations...with Russian air cover.'
... Loyalty, expertise, and leadership skill are hard to come by. As the
war in Syria grinds on, that new commanders for Iranian proxy elements
will rise to the foreground is a certainty. However, these new
commanders' formative experiences will be shaped more by Syria's
hyper-sectarian conditions and brutality, something which may lead to
even more radicalism. For the IRGC, growing a new leadership crop to
control these elements will also face similar difficulties as Iran
continues to expand its reach across the Middle East. Regardless, to prop
up Assad and to show its Russian allies it can act on the ground, Tehran
is bleeding out some of its top military leadership which helped form the
current IRGC-controlled proxy network operating today." http://t.uani.com/1LPWGSE
John Allen Gay in
TNI: "'Negotiation with America is forbidden.' With
those words, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threw cold water on the
hope in some circles (and fear in others) that a broader opening in
relations with the United States would follow July's nuclear deal.
Officially, the Obama administration has always been skeptical that the
deal will lead to reduced regional tensions in other domains-Syria, Yemen,
Iraq, and so forth. Yet some reports suggest that there is a current of
thought within the administration that views the deal as a kind of master
key-that a better U.S.-Iranian relationship will allow coordination in
new areas, opening up solutions that may have been impossible. For
example, writes the New York Times' Gardiner Harris, 'Administration
officials say [Secretary of State John] Kerry is hopeful that once the
nuclear accord is solidified, he will be able to begin talking with the
Iranians about ending their support for President Bashar al-Assad of
Syria.' At the same time, a more vibrant economy may bring changes within
Iran that make it less inclined to conflict; more broadly, a new
geopolitics may emerge in which the United States will not need to be so
solicitous toward its Sunni allies in the Gulf because this more
powerful, less nettlesome Iran will balance their influence. There's a
whiff of this on the Iranian side, too, with Iranian foreign minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif pushing for a nuclear-weapons-elimination treaty and
talks among Muslim nations on Syria and Yemen. The grand-strategic
benefits of such an arrangement purport to be great. A more stable Middle
East would enable the United States to focus more of its strategic
energies on East Asia. Iranian gas flowing into Europe would reduce
dependency on Russia, perhaps forcing Moscow toward more pacific conduct
and further enabling that American rebalance to Asia. Barack Obama's name
would be written in history next to Castlereagh, Metternich, Cornwallis,
as an heir to a weakened and fading empire who, through astute diplomacy,
renewed it for a generation. The Pax Americana would be back. Freed from
the need for constant warfare, we'd enter a new golden age, busying
ourselves with prosperity and dissipation. That would all be very
nice. Yet it rests on a misreading of what the nuclear deal entails. If
Iran were being reintegrated into its region, the optimists would have a
good case. Iran's standing in the Middle East has scarcely changed.
Tehran is instead stabilizing its ties to the great powers. This does
have benefits, but it does not 'solve' the Middle East and thus does not
enable the grander transformations described above. Indeed, with Iranian
power usually manifesting outside institutional channels, against
existing balances and in sectarianizing patterns, it is hard to see how
an expanded role for Tehran would stabilize anything. The Washington
Post's Jackson Diehl lays out one of the challenges: Hezbollah in Lebanon
is crucial to Iran's power-projection into the Levant and the survival of
Bashar al-Assad's regime, and a friendly regime in Syria is crucial to
Iran's ability to keep Hezbollah supplied. A settlement in Syria will
thus require the United States to defeat the regime or to effectively
ratify the Hezbollah threat. The former is unlikely at current levels of
effort and would risk empowering Al Qaeda and the Islamic State group;
the latter keeps Israel under the gun and is likely to increase
Hezbollah's overall power. It's a similar damned if you do, damned if you
don't story in Iraq. Iran's efforts there have been crucial to keeping
the Islamic State group at bay in the wake of the Iraqi army's collapse,
and Iran certainly has enough influence to insist on its own presence at
any meaningful negotiation. Yet that influence has a fundamentally
sectarian character, one that all but ensures continuing tension between
the government in Baghdad on one side and Sunni populations and regional
actors on the other. Again, regional reintegration would require
accepting Iranian dominance over much of a major state, with that
dominance manifesting in ways that stoke trouble nearby." http://t.uani.com/1LmpIUy
Yossi Mansharof in
Times of Israel: "Preoccupied at the moment by the
Iran nuclear deal, the Hajj stampede in Mecca and the Syria-ISIS-Yemen
crises, the Iranian regime has not emphasized the recent Palestinian
terror wave. Yet Tehran is discernibly satisfied with the events, and it
has urged Hamas and Islamic Jihad to join the struggle by committing
deadly attacks. On the diplomatic front, Iran's foreign ministry
spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham has condemned the 'terror act by the Zionist
regime against the helpless Palestinian nation, especially in the West
Bank,' in reference to the killing of two young Palestinian rioters in
clashes with IDF the previous day in the West Bank. A review of Iranian
media reveals that Tehran - especially Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC) circles - is sending three key public messages to the Palestinian
leadership and movements, mainly Hamas and Islamic Jihad: Cancel the Oslo
Accords, commit lethal attacks and operations, and stick with the
Resistance as the only strategic path that will achieve your desired outcome."
http://t.uani.com/1OEVlNz
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