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Houthi
Retreat in Yemen Shows the Limits of Iranian Power
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Originally published under the title "The Limits of
Iranian Power."
Iranian-backed
Houthi leader Abdul Malik Al-Houthi acknowledges defeat in an August 2
address after his fighters were driven out of Aden in south Yemen.
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While regional news remains dominated by the dramatic events under way
in Syria, further south and east important developments are taking place
in one of the more neglected arenas of the regional struggle – Yemen.
Events in Yemen are noteworthy because they counter the notion that as
a result of the Obama administration's exit from the region and in the
wake of the nuclear agreement, an unstoppable Iranian advance across the
Middle East is inevitable.
In Yemen, what is taking place is the halting of an Iranian client by
forces supported by the Arab Gulf states, most importantly Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates.
The Iran-supported Ansar Allah movement, more popularly known as the
Houthis, seized control of the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, in March. The
government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi was forced into exile in
Saudi Arabia. The Houthis and their allies then began a march to the
south, intending to seize the Gulf of Aden and unite the country under
their control.
The Houthi retreat in Yemen
counters the notion of an unstoppable Iranian advance across the Middle
East.
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Preventing this was a matter of strategic importance for the opponents
of the Houthis and of their Iranian backers. Control of southwest Yemen
would have given the Houthis (and hence the Iranians) the ability to
choke off energy supplies making their way from the Persian Gulf to the
Suez Canal via the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Saudi and Emirati assistance to Yemeni government forces seeking to
prevent this outcome began on March 26. Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan,
Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain also joined the coalition against the Houthis.
These countries provided air support to government forces.
The Houthi offensive, in which the Zaidi Shi'a tribesmen were
supported by military elements loyal to the ousted dictator Ali Abdullah
Saleh, stalled in the face of Saudi-supported resistance.
The Houthis came close to capturing Aden City in late March. But that
was the furthest point of their advance.
In the course of the summer, Saudi- and UAE-supported forces succeeded
in driving the Houthis out of Aden, enabling Hadi to return to the city.
As of now, after the death of around 4,900 people in the conflict, the
Houthis have agreed to adhere to a seven-point plan brokered by the UN at
talks in Muscat, Oman. The plan includes a cease-fire and the return of
the government to Sanaa.
Saudi-supported forces are poised
to assault one of the last remaining Houthi strongholds in south Yemen.
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It is not yet clear if the cease-fire will be implemented, and
skepticism is justified. But if the reports are correct, the Houthi declaration
follows a series of defeats they have suffered at the hands of the Saudi-
led coalition in recent weeks.
Coalition forces recently secured the Bab el-Mandeb area and also
captured the strategic Marib Dam in Marib province, held by the Houthis
since the spring. Saudi-supported forces are poised to begin an assault
on Taiz province, one of the last remaining strongholds of the Houthis in
the south of the country.
The largely ignored events in Yemen reflect the reality of an ongoing
Saudi-Iranian contest, which itself forms part of the broader Sunni-Shi'a
conflict currently bisecting the Middle East. Success in restoring the
Hadi government in Yemen, if it takes place, will be a major boost to the
Saudis, who fear being encircled by pro-Iranian forces, given Iranian
influence in Iraq and Yemen.
Other than the strategic issue of control of Bab el-Mandeb, why should
events in Yemen matter outside of its immediate environs? They matter for
the following reason: In the series of Saudi-Iranian proxy wars taking
place across the region, the Iranians appeared to enjoy a clear
advantage.
Iran being a revolutionary republic, possessing an instrument
specifically designed for the establishment and promotion of proxy
political-military organizations (the Quds Force of the Revolutionary
Guards), their ascendancy seemed assured. Many rightly fear that once the
Iranians begin to receive sanctions relief following the conclusion of
the agreement on their nuclear program, they will be free to continue and
increase their support for the long list of regional proxies they
maintain.
But in Yemen, the Saudis appear to have held an Iranian proxy to a
draw. The Houthis are not destroyed, but their victory and serious
strategic gains for the Iranians have been prevented.
Iran is involved in a series of
conflicts in the Middle East, while prevailing as yet in none.
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This process fits into a larger picture, in which Iranian interference
– in Yemen, in Syria, in Iraq – appears more usually to lead to the
division of countries and ongoing civil war rather than to a clear
Iranian triumph.
Only in tiny Lebanon can an Iranian proxy (Hezbollah) be said to have
established a position of acknowledged military superiority.
But even there, Hezbollah does not seek to rule alone.
Thus, Iran finds itself in a position of involvement in a whole series
of conflicts in the Middle East, supporting powerful players, while
prevailing as yet in none.
Events in Yemen this week offer further proof that any notion of an
Iranian juggernaut sweeping over the Middle East as a result of US
withdrawal from it is exaggerated.
The Iranians and their allies are powerful regional players, but
inbuilt limitations are likely to prevent them from achieving the
regional hegemony they dream of.
Iranian regional machinations are set to continue exacerbating strife
and division across the region, but without clear victories for Tehran.
Jonathan Spyer is director of the
Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs and a fellow at the
Middle East Forum.
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