Eye on Iran: Deal Breaker? Iran Remains Resolute in Its Support of Syria's Assad

Join UANI           Top Stories WSJ: "Iran is holding firm that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad be allowed to run in any future elections in his country, presenting a potentially fatal blow to renewed international talks aimed at ending the Syrian civil war. On Saturday, 17 countries met in Vienna, including the U.S., Russia and Iran, and outlined a framework for reaching a cease-fire in Syria and then a political transition. Left unresolved, according to diplomats who attended, is what happens to Mr. Assad. The U.S. and its closest Middle East allies, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, have demanded that Mr. Assad leave office as part of efforts to reconcile Syria's warring factions. Secretary of State John Kerry has voiced hopes in recent weeks that Russia and Iran, Mr. Assad's closest allies, will agree to a political transition in Damascus that excludes the Syrian dictator, provided their security and economic interests are respected. A leading Iranian diplomat at the Vienna talks, however, on Sunday reaffirmed Tehran's position that foreign powers cannot decide to bar Mr. Assad from future elections.  A communiqué released after the meeting in the Austrian capital said the United Nations would seek to hold a vote in Syria in around 18 months. Iranian diplomats have said in recent days that they explicitly blocked efforts by the U.S and other countries to block Mr. Assad from running for re-election. 'The Islamic Republic of Iran did not allow this issue to be included in the final statement,' Iran's deputy foreign minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, told state media on Sunday. 'We emphasized that only the people of Syria have the right to decide on this matter.' The Iranian diplomat, who focuses on Arab and African affairs at Tehran's foreign ministry, added: 'We stressed unequivocally that only Assad himself can decide on his participation or non-participation in the elections and [that] it is only the people of Syria who can say whether they will vote for him or not.'" http://t.uani.com/1Mk3l4O HRW: "The United Nations member countries should vote in favor of Resolution A/C.3/70/L.45 on the promotion and protection of human rights in Iran, Human Rights Watch said today in a joint letter signed by 36 human rights and other organizations. Citing continuing rights violations in the country, the resolution calls on the government of Iran to meet its domestic and international obligations. The vote is scheduled for November 19, 2015, during the 70th session of the United Nations General Assembly. 'The Iranian authorities shouldn't think they are getting a pass on human rights just because the nuclear accord has been signed,' said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director. 'Passing this resolution will send the message that the world has not forgotten about the country's ongoing human rights abuses.' Despite statements from officials in the Rouhani administration indicating that it would address some abuses, there have been no significant improvements in Iran's human rights record during 2015. The judiciary has issued an alarming number of death sentences, with the authorities executing at least 830 people, including juvenile offenders, between January and November. Many of these executions were for nonviolent crimes for which international law clearly prohibits the death penalty, such as drug-related offenses." http://t.uani.com/1X4H7qs NYT: "A prominent press cartoonist in Iran was arrested at work on Monday by security agents who provided no explanation, according to an Iranian news website and rights activists. The cartoonist, Hadi Heidari, appeared to be the latest in Iran's literary world to have run afoul of conservatives suspicious of interactions with the West. The Tabnak news site, a Persian-language service in Iran, said Mr. Heidari was taken into custody for 'unknown reasons' Monday afternoon while at work at The Shahrvand, a daily newspaper in Tehran that is owned by Iran's Red Crescent Society, or Red Cross. Iranian rights activists, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for protection, said they had learned of Mr. Heidari's arrest from his colleagues at The Shahrvand, who described the arresting agents as members of the intelligence unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The arrest had not been reported in the official news media as of Monday night. It came after the publication of a cartoon by Mr. Heidari depicting tearful solidarity with the people of France over the attacks Friday that left at least 129 people dead." http://t.uani.com/20Zzp5A    Sanctions Relief Reuters: "Iran has started negotiations to buy shares in oil refineries in Europe, Latin America and Asia, the deputy oil minister was quoted as saying by Mehr news agency on Tuesday. 'Buying the oil refineries or their shares abroad is the policy of Iran after the lifting of sanctions,' said Abbas Kazemi, head of the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company... Kazemi said that Tehran was in talks to buy a stake in India's Essar Oil, although India's second-largest private refiner denied this. 'Essar has signed a non-binding term sheet with (Russian refiner) Rosneft for exclusive negotiations in relation to sale of Essar Oil shares and there is no other discussion in this regard,' an Essar spokesman said." http://t.uani.com/1OOBUDV Syria Conflict Long War Journal: "Qassem Soleimani, the commander Iran's Qods Force, the external operations wing of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, has been photographed with Harakat al Nujaba leader Akram al Kaabi, a US-designated terrorist who fought against US troops in Iraq. Two photographs, posted on Harakat al Nujaba's official Facebook page, show Kaabi and Soleimani sitting together in the northern Syrian province of Aleppo. Kaabi was dispatched to Syria earlier this month to help President Bashar al Assad's forces break the Islamic State's siege of the Kweiris air base in Aleppo province... Kaabi's hatred towards the US goes back at least a decade, when he was a commander in Muqtada al Sadr's Mahdi Army. In 2008, the US government listed Kaabi as an individual who threatens the security of Iraq under Executive Order 13438. Also listed along with Kaabi was Abdul Reza Shahlai, a Qods Froce commander. The US government said that Kaabi was behind multiple mortar and rocket attacks against the International Zone, or Green Zone, in Baghdad in early 2008. He also financed roadside bomb attacks and recruitment for the Mahdi Army." http://t.uani.com/1LjN1NC Human Rights ICHRI: "Security forces arrested the prominent Iranian cartoonist Hadi Heidari in his office at Shahrvand Daily in Tehran today, November 16, 2015. Two co-workers of Heidari at the Tehran daily confirmed the arrest and told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran that 'a young man came with a warrant. He showed Hadi the warrant and they took him quietly.' The sources told the Campaign that they were not certain which organization arrested Heidari, but added that he was likely arrested by the Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Organization. Heidari's last cartoon was related to the terrorist attacks in Paris. Hadi Heidari, 38, is a graduate of Tehran's Arts and Architecture University with a degree in painting. For the past twenty years, he has worked in various reformist publications in Iran, including Etemad, Bahar, Pool, Norooz, Neshat, Asr-e Azadegan, and Eghbal, among others. Heidari was first arrested in 2009 in the aftermath of the disputed presidential election on charges of 'assembly and collusion against national security,' and spent 17 days in detention before release. He was again arrested in December 2010 on charges of 'propaganda against the state,' and was released two months later on bail of about $15,000." http://t.uani.com/20ZyxxU Reuters: "Iranian authorities have arrested a cartoonist and sent him to prison to complete a suspended jail sentence, his lawyer said on Tuesday, joining a growing list of journalists, artists and activists detained on security charges. Hadi Heidari, a cartoonist at the Shahrvand newspaper, was arrested on Monday and sent to Tehran's Evin prison, his lawyer told Reuters in a telephone interview from Tehran. 'He was convicted two years ago for his cartoons and was sentenced to one year in jail. The authorities had a different interpretation of his cartoons than he had,' the lawyer, Saleh Nikbakht, said. Heidari had served about a month of the original sentence, Nikbakht said... The IRGC has rounded up artists, journalists and U.S. citizens as part of the crackdown on 'infiltration'. Last week, it arrested the administrators of more than 20 groups on the mobile messaging app Telegram. 'I had lunch with him a few days ago and he was expecting to be arrested alongside other journalists,' Nikbakht said. The Tasnim news agency, which is close to the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), said Heidari had telephoned his family from prison and told them his arrest stemmed from the original conviction... The IRGC has rounded up artists, journalists and U.S. citizens as part of the crackdown on 'infiltration'. Last week, it arrested the administrators of more than 20 groups on the mobile messaging app Telegram. 'I had lunch with him a few days ago and he was expecting to be arrested alongside other journalists,' Nikbakht said." http://t.uani.com/1OdwW0k RFE/RL: "At least 15 members of the Baha'i faith have been arrested in several Iranian cities. The reason for the new round of arrests on November 15 in Tehran, Isfahan, and Mashhad is not clear. A spokeswoman with the Baha'i International community told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that authorities have also shut down Baha'i-run shops in several cities, including Kerman and Rafsanjan. Baha'is routinely face persecution in Iran, where their faith is not officially recognized." http://t.uani.com/1PxZLbc IranWire: "On the morning of Sunday, November 15, Iranian Intelligence Ministry agents carried out the arrest of 20 Baha'is in Tehran, Isfahan and Mashhad. As part of a massive operation, they also closed down Baha'i-run businesses in the province of Mazandaran... So far, no information has been made available about the charges against the Baha'is. Their families have not been informed of their whereabouts. According to reports,  it is likely that the prisoners have been taken to detention centers run by the Intelligence Ministry in their respective cities. On the same day of the arrests took place, the Bureau of Public Places in the province of Mazandaran sealed and shut down 23 businesses belonging to Baha'is, including in the cities of Sari, Ghaem Shahr, Tonekabon and Babolsar. This followed the businesses being closed on Saturday, November 14, a religious holiday for Baha'is. Authorities have in the past objected to Baha'i businesses observing holidays, threatening them with closure if they failed to keep the same business hours as non-Baha'i shops and services." http://t.uani.com/1Py0byi IHR: "From Thursday November 12 until today, Iranian authorities have executed at least six prisoners in two different prisons. Most of the hangings were carried out for alleged drug offenses. On Saturday November 14, a Pakistani citizen, identified as Younes Jamaloldini, was reportedly hanged at Zahedan Central Prison on alleged drug charges... 'Currently there are at least nine Pakistani citizens in Zahedan Central Prison, five of them are sentenced to death for drug trafficking, the rest of them are sentenced to life in prison...,' says an informed source who has requested to be anonymous." http://t.uani.com/1LjMv1T    Domestic Politics Al-Monitor: "Economists in Iran are encouraging the administration of President Hassan Rouhani to take a softer position on those who accumulated questionable wealth between 2005 and 2012, when the country enjoyed oil revenues totaling a record $700 billion - amid harsh sanctions. Indeed, some economists are now warning that capital flight will be exacerbated should the administration not allow this 'new social class' to play a role in the Iranian economy. The advice appears to have been heeded by Rouhani. In an Oct. 12 address in the northern province of Mazandaran, he moderated his previously harsh tone toward the 'dealers of sanctions' - a term referring to the individuals and influential firms affiliated with military and political organizations that made astronomical profits while the country was under crippling economic sanctions. During his visit to the northern city of Sari, the moderate president reassured the 'dealers of sanctions' that they will not make a loss when the external pressure is removed. 'I swear to God: You will not make a loss. You, too, will enjoy the benefits of the sanctions relief. Don't worry, your business won't become stagnant,' said Rouhani, obviously to those opposing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - the historic July 14 deal with six world powers that it set to put an end to nuclear-related sanctions by early 2016. Indeed, the remarks can be interpreted as a fresh attempt by moderates to calm the domestic political atmosphere, which has been tense after the hammering out of a diplomatic resolution to the 12-year-long nuclear dispute with the West. However, it could also be an indication that the Rouhani administration has failed to push back the 'economic mafia,' and is now begging for the latter's participation in the revival of the ailing Iranian economy." http://t.uani.com/1MPL0Or Opinion & Analysis Ray Takeyh & Reuel Marc Gerecht in Foreign Affairs: "The choice seems simple. On one side are regally attired mullahs, the type that have protected Persia's pre-Islamic treasures and even tweet in English. On the other side is the Islamic State (ISIS), with its conquest, rape, and pillage. Muhammad-Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, has made the pitch better than anyone. 'The menace we're facing-and I say we, because no one is spared-is embodied by the hooded men who are ravaging the cradle of civilization,' he warned, dangling out the possibility of rapprochement between Washington and Tehran against ISIS. Beneath such expressions of concern, however, is a more cynical strategy. Iran is using ISIS' ascendance in the Middle East to consolidate its power. The country is now the key ally keeping Iraq's Shiites and the Alawite Bashar al-Assad regime standing against well-armed and tenacious Sunni jihadists. In those battles, Tehran will likely do just enough to make sure the Sunnis don't conquer the Shia portions of Iraq and Assad's enclave in Syria, but no more. Meanwhile, in ISIS' wake, Tehran will strengthen its own radical Shia militias. The result could be a permanent destabilization of the Arab heartland. That would be a major victory for the Islamic Republic, which has seen its fortunes rise as Egypt and Turkey have become mired in crises and as Saudi Arabia, Iran's one remaining serious Sunni rival, has gotten bogged down in a war in Yemen. Iran's model for operating abroad draws from its experiences in Lebanon in the early 1980s, when the regime amalgamated a variety of Shia parties into Hezbollah. Under Iranian guidance, Hezbollah targeted the United States, finally driving the country out of Lebanon by bombing the U.S. marine barracks in Beirut in 1983. That attack remade Lebanon; ever since, Tehran has had a commanding voice in the country's politics and Hezbollah has served as its terrorist proxy and its most destructive auxiliary force in the Arab world. The Islamic Republic repeated the Lebanon model in Iraq after 2003. Tehran had two complementary objectives: drive the United States out and prevent the formation of a new anti-Iranian Iraq. Once again, Iran turned to the development of radical Shia militias. The paramilitary outfits lacerated U.S. forces and intimidated, and sometimes killed, secular Shiites and recalcitrant Iraqi clerics. In 2011, Tehran achieved a resounding success with the U.S. withdrawal. Since then, however, it has had trouble controlling independently-minded Iraqi Shiite leaders. ISIS was thus a blessing. Neither a flatfooted United States nor the crumbling Iraqi army could muster an effective response. Iranian advisors and Shiite militias stepped into a vacuum, safeguarding Baghdad and consolidating Tehran's influence with Iraq's Shia population. Iran once had to be discreet in Iraq. Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force, the primary expeditionary unit in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, moved around in near secrecy so as not to rile Iraqis who were wary of having Persian overlords. Further, Tehran used to care a great deal about what the Iraqi Shia clerical establishment, led by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, was doing. Directly and through proxies, the Iranians mixed flattery, subventions, and a bit of intimidation to get their way in Najaf and Karbala, the great centers of Islamic learning in Mesopotamia. But those days are over. With the rise of ISIS, and the consequent rise of Iranian hard power, Tehran has become noticeably less concerned about Iraqi perceptions and intra-clerical harmony. Gone, too, are the days in which Tehran worried much about moderate Sunnis. Throughout the 1980s and the 1990s, Iran assiduously practiced an ecumenical approach to radical Sunnis. President Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, and his aide de camp, Hassan Rouhani, spearheaded this outreach, trying to get Sunni Arabs to focus on the common enemy, the United States and Israel. Lebanese Hezbollah, with Imad Mughniyya in the lead, played an essential role in helping the mullahs bridge their differences with Arab Sunni militants. Yet the Islamic Republic's efforts produced only marginal success: a few Sunni groups aligned themselves with Tehran; more were willing to take the mullahs' money and weaponry. Al Qaeda sporadically accepted Iranian assistance and badly damaged the United States. But Tehran's ability to force Arab governments to accept its priorities remained limited. Tehran has always known that in the Islamic heartland of the Middle East, Shias and Sunnis are almost evenly matched in numbers. By embracing sectarianism, Iran now plays a pivotal, if not dominant, role throughout the region. If Sunni radicals were to establish terrorist cells inside Iran's minority Sunni communities, Tehran might want to throttle ISIS. Barring that eventuality, however, the clerical regime has no interest in diminishing the sectarian bloodbath that has allowed it more influence than at any time since the 1979 revolution. At best, anti-Americanism brought Tehran fellow-travelers; ISIS, however, has given the regime its best shot at an empire. For Iran's ruling elite, Shia-hating Sunnis have never looked so good." http://t.uani.com/1HThZBg UANI Advisory Board Member Olli Heinonen in FDD: "The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)  puts Iran's nuclear program under greater scrutiny than before and reduces the likelihood of an overt dash to the bomb for the next 10 years. But the agreement contains a number of notable weaknesses-particularly regarding undeclared nuclear activity and weapons-related research-that should be mitigated by adopting stronger verification measures. Under the JCPOA, Iran will retain a sizable nuclear infrastructure and the capacity to rapidly expand its atomic program. Tehran will retain a substantial uranium enrichment capacity and is permitted to augment its nuclear activity after 10 years, even though there is no technical or economic reason for it to do so. The JCPOA undoubtedly places Iran's nuclear program under broader and stricter safeguards than existed before the accord. From a verification perspective, the agreement contains strong points, but it also has weaknesses. It reduces and limits what Iran can produce, enrich, and stockpile. It carries particularly strong provisions concerning Iran's Arak reactor-Iran's 'plutonium path' to a nuclear bomb-for the next 15 years. Its mechanisms to monitor declared nuclear material at declared facilities are robust. The JCPOA also puts the entire nuclear fuel cycle-from mining through enrichment to fuel fabrication and spent fuel-under monitoring and verification. The agreement, however, is not without its vulnerabilities and challenges: 1) verification mechanisms to detect undeclared activities and sites remain limited; 2) mechanisms to detect barred weaponization research are likely insufficient; and 3) after a decade, the additional transparency measures will fade away-at the same time that Iran is able to start expanding its program-presenting additional verification challenges. Central to a strong verification regime is the proper resolution of the issue concerning the Possible Military Dimensions (PMDs) of Tehran's nuclear research. The importance of understanding and resolving this issue is not a matter for historians. In order to ensure that Iran cannot reconstitute a weapons program in the future, it is important to understand how far the Islamic Republic has progressed in weaponization. Without a complete understanding of the PMDs of Iran's research, it will not be possible to design verification protocols that effectively allow for early detection. However, the agreement leaves the resolution of PMDs to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Its inspections need to maintain a high bar and be carried out without undue interference that could dilute or compromise their integrity and that of other verification procedures. The IAEA's reports on the inspection of the Parchin military complex still do not mitigate concerns about the verification and sample-taking process. The IAEA-Iran agreement regarding Parchin has deviated significantly from well-established safeguards practices, which involve the full physical presence of inspectors on location, the integrity of the samples they take themselves, and the ability of the IAEA to draw definitive conclusions with the requisite level of assurances. Resolving these issues in a satisfactory way is crucial. Otherwise, the IAEA and the permanent members of the Security Council risk opening up a confidence deficit about verifying Parchin and, as important, other sensitive sites in the Islamic Republic. Parchin appears to have already established a problematic precedent, not only for verification at other sites in Iran but for other nations with nuclear aspirations. The JCPOA obviously has implications for efforts to prohibit nuclear proliferation, especially in the Middle East. At a minimum, this means that as the JCPOA is implemented over the next several months, the IAEA needs to demonstrate that it can access Iranian sites of concern, including military bases, and conduct effective verification into the allegations of past nuclear-weapons work. It is important to remember that what led to the international community's concern about the Islamic Republic's nuclear program was not 'just' uranium enrichment. Rather, it was because Iran has consistently tried to hide its nuclear program, failed to address concerns about PMD activities, and obfuscated verification efforts. To this day, Iran remains a country where the IAEA is unable to provide assurances that all nuclear activities are accounted for and in peaceful use, despite several U.N. Security Council calls to rectify the situation. As this report explains, additional measures are needed now in order to discourage further spread of sensitive technologies and procedures." http://t.uani.com/1kCmfev Walter Pincus in WashPost: "Opponents of the Iran nuclear agreement in Washington and Tehran will have their next opportunity to sabotage its implementation when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) releases a report by Dec. 15 on its investigation into Iran's past nuclear weapons activities. Americans opposed to the deal will reopen debate over whether the IAEA can be trusted to carry out tough verification measures, providing new ammunition to Republican presidential candidates who have said they would tear up the agreement. For Iranian conservatives, it opens up the opportunity to delay preparations for implementation day - and, therefore, put off ending economic sanctions. The delay would help undercut Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, whose supporters are expected to benefit from the lifting of sanctions in the Feb. 26 elections for the majlis, Iran's parliament. These opponents of the agreement have an additional incentive because voters that day will also choose the 86 members of the Assembly of Experts, the only body that can dismiss a supreme leader or choose a successor to Iran's current 76-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Under the side arrangement to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreed to July 14 by the United States, its allies and Iran, the IAEA report on the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) issue will not, as some American critics demanded, disclose how far Iran got in developing a weapon. Nor will it support the claims of Iran's leaders that it has always had a peaceful nuclear program. Instead, as IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano told a European Union nonproliferation conference last Wednesday, 'The objective of our organization is not to verify the intention' of Iran because 'it is not possible to verify the intention in the past and in the future. This is not our job.' He said that the IAEA's job was 'to establish the facts to the best of our ability' and write a report that will present 'my final assessment on all past and present outstanding issues.' It will then be up to the IAEA member states 'to determine the appropriate response,' Amano said. American critics of the agreement want more. In March, a bipartisan group of 367 House members wrote President Obama, 'Unless we have a full understanding of Iran's past program it will be impossible for the international community to judge Iran's future breakout time with certainty.' The IAEA needs to know 'when Iran sought nuclear weapons, how far it got, what types it sought to develop, and how and where it did this work,' said David Albright, president of the nonprofit Institute for Science and International Security and an expert who worked with the IAEA in its 1990s inspections in Iraq. 'Was this weapons capability just put on the shelf, waiting to be quickly restarted?' he asked. The report will cause critics again to question why the IAEA allowed Iranians to carry out the sampling from a building at Parchin, an Iranian military facility, which once contained a large steel chamber where tests related to nuclear weapon development may have taken place years ago. Iran has for years limited access to the building. More recently, satellite photos have shown physical work has been done to it and the surrounding areas." http://t.uani.com/1lsPu3k         Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.