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NYT: "Five days after national elections in Iran,
the Interior Ministry has yet to release official detailed results, and
some analysts are beginning to doubt that it ever will. While the
government and its supporters clearly won a sweeping victory in the
capital, the picture in the rest of the country is much more diffuse
and may remain that way for some time, if not permanently. The Interior
Ministry, which is overseeing the voting for the 290-seat Parliament
and the clerical Assembly of Experts, announced on Tuesday the names of
222 parliamentary candidates who won nationwide. It also announced that
there would be a second round of voting for 68 seats in several
constituencies in April. But there has been no official comment on the
affiliation of the winning candidates, and there may never be, making
it difficult to determine how many seats the various factions have won.
A consensus seems to be developing - based on the most credible news
media efforts at a tabulation - that the reformist-moderate combination
seems to have secured 80 to 90 seats in the Majlis, or Parliament. The
hard-liners seem to have won a similar number. Around 60 seats have
gone to independents, and the rest will be determined in the second
round of voting. The problem is that there are no parties in Iran, only
individual candidates and temporary, loose alliances. This makes it
extremely complicated to count which person supports which faction. One
famous politician, for example, Ali Motahhari, came in second in Tehran
on the combined list of government supporters. But when it comes to
social issues like the obligatory Islamic head scarf for women, he will
probably side with the hard-liners... What seems likely is that the new
Parliament will find itself without a dominant faction, a rarity in the
Islamic Republic. Analysts expect that even the second round will not
bring a majority to any of the groups. This could lead to gridlock,
experts say, because under Irans Constitution, laws need a two-thirds
majority for passage. Factions can obstruct the votes simply by not
showing up." http://t.uani.com/1Qud6NC
Bloomberg: "Irans return to global oil
markets after sanctions were lifted isnt living up to the countrys
grand ambitions, or at least not yet. Six weeks after the historic
nuclear deal that allowed Iran to resume oil sales around the world,
the OPEC member is shipping barely a third of the extra 500,000 barrels
a day it had vowed to unleash within weeks of sanctions being lifted.
The country faces hurdles at every step, whether reviving output from
aging oil wells or overcoming lingering banking constraints that have
forced it to sell crude in barter arrangements, according to BNP
Paribas SA. 'Iran is facing short-term obstacles in regaining market
share lost to other OPEC members, and in restoring production to
pre-sanctions levels,' said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity
markets strategy at BNP Paribas in London. 'Longer term, the legal and
regulatory framework is an obstacle.' ... Iran loaded its first cargo
of oil to Europe since 2012 last month onto a tanker chartered to
French oil company Total SA. The Atlantas, a very large crude carrier,
loaded at the Persian nations port of Kharg Island last month and is
sailing around the Horn of Africa on its way to Europe, according to
ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Thats a longer journey than
Iranian crude used to take to European ports because of another
logistical hurdle -- Egypt and Gulf Arab crude producers have yet to
let Iran resume oil shipments through a pipeline connecting the Red Sea
with the Mediterranean. The SuMed pipeline provides a shorter transit
than the African route for oil cargoes from the Gulf region to the
Europe that are carried in ships too large to sail through the Suez
Canal. The tankers can transfer some of their oil into the pipeline,
thus lightening their loads for passage through the canal, or fully
discharge cargoes that can be collected by smaller vessels at the far
end. Arab Petroleum Pipelines Co., which operates the link, is still
reviewing terms of the agreement that removed sanctions on Iran in
January, according to a company official. The operator is seeking to
ensure Iran complies with sanctions regulations before resuming oil
shipments halted since August 2012, said the official, who asked not to
be identified citing company policy. Another oil tanker, Distya Akula,
has been anchored at the southern approach to the Suez Canal since Feb.
24 after loading at Kharg Island, ship-tracking data show. Some banks
have been refusing to process payments for European refiners seeking to
buy cargoes of Iranian crude. Hellenic Petroleum SA has struggled to
secure deliveries because banks wouldn't process payments, two people
familiar with the matter said last week. With Republican candidates
threatening to undo President Barack Obamas lifting of Iran sanctions,
most European banks will likely keep avoiding financing deals with the
Islamic Republic, according to Caitlin Webber, a government analyst at
Bloomberg Intelligence. National Iranian Oil Co. has sought to
circumvent this problem by agreeing to swap crude for gasoline with
European trading houses Glencore Plc, Trafigura Beheer BV and Vitol
Group SA, according to a report by Iranian news service Mehr." http://t.uani.com/1QOnyPq
AFP: "Iran has invited US plane
manufacturer Boeing for talks on modernising its fleet, Transport
Minister Abbas Akhoundi said Thursday, weeks after Tehran's nuclear
deal took effect. 'After the authorisation from the US administration
to Boeing, we have invited the company to begin talks on developing the
country's air fleet,' Akhoundi said, without giving a date, quoted by
state television news agency IRIB. Akhoundi's deputy, Asghar Fakhrieh
Kashan, told AFP: 'We never closed the doors to Boeing, and we are
ready for negotiations whenever they come.' Boeing said on February 19
it had received authorisation from the US administration -- despite the
lack of Washington-Tehran diplomatic ties for more than three decades
-- to study the commercial plane market in Iran, in the wake of the
lifting of nuclear sanctions in mid-January." http://t.uani.com/1OTJpnl
U.S.-Iran
Relations
Al-Monitor: "Barely a week after the Jan.
16 lifting of nuclear-related sanctions on Iran, Tehran hosted its
first international business summit in years. The event, sponsored by
the Centre for Aviation (CAPA), brought together 400 executives of the
global aviation industry to re-establish links with their Iranian
counterparts after a decades-long estrangement. What raised eyebrows in
Tehran and Washington, however, was the conspicuous absence of Boeing,
the worlds largest aircraft manufacturer... It turns out that Boeing,
while skipping the high-profile CAPA event in Tehran, has actually been
unofficially negotiating behind the scenes with Iranian civil aviation
officials for a considerable time... US companies risk the wrath of
special interest groups devoted to inflicting reputational damage
because of trade with Iran...Groups such as United Against a Nuclear
Iran have also been successful in convincing around half of the state
legislatures to pass measures punishing companies operating in Iran.
These local laws have directed state pension funds with billions of
dollars in assets to divest from targeted companies and sometimes have
barred these companies from public contracts." http://t.uani.com/1RKsGY7
Sanctions
Relief
Reuters: "Iran, OPEC's No. 3 producer,
is expected to raise its oil exports in March to around 1.65 million
barrels per day from 1.5 million bpd a month earlier on the back of
higher crude shipments to Europe, two industry sources told Reuters on
Thursday. State-run National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC) is expected to ship
around 250,000-300,000 bpd to Europe this month after it finalised term
deals with France's Total and Spanish refiner Cepsa, effective from
March 1, said the sources, who are familiar with Iran's exports. The
French oil major has a contract to buy about 200,000 bpd, while Cepsa's
deal was for about 35,000 bpd, one source said. Total is expected to
lift at least 5 million barrels in March, the source added. Litasco,
the trading arm of Russia's Lukoil, Cepsa and Total have become the
first buyers in Europe after the lifting of sanctions and lifted trial
cargoes in February, trading sources told Reuters. Hellenic Petroleum,
Greece's biggest oil refiner, has said it will receive its first
shipment of Iranian crude oil at the end of March." http://t.uani.com/1LWMdjt
Reuters: "India's oil imports from
Iran rose by over a fifth in February, the first month after a nuclear
deal that lifted restrictions on Tehran's oil exports, preliminary
tanker data obtained by Reuters shows... Iran is working to regain
market share after sanctions relief and exports had already risen by
500,000 bpd in February, Mohsen Ghamsari, director of international
affairs at National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC), told Reuters on Tuesday. New
Delhi shipped in 215,500 bpd from Tehran in February, a rise of about
21 percent from last month and more than double the about 111,000 bpd
in the same month a year ago, the data showed... In February Essar Oil
was the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, shipping in 110,200 bpd, followed
by about 69,500 bpd by Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. MRPL
shipped in just one cargo of Iranian oil in February. Indian Oil Corp,
which rarely buys Iranian oil, received a cargo of oil equivalent to
about 35,800 bpd... Reliance Industries Ltd, which halted supplies from
Iran in 2010, is preparing to lift a million barrels each of condensate
and oil next month." http://t.uani.com/219BkC1
Korea
Joongang Daily:
"The government and Korean companies have taken the first steps to
capture new business opportunities in Iran, which has emerged as the
'promised land' of possibilities since economic sanctions were lifted.
According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on Monday,
Minister Joo Hyung-hwan met with a number of Iranian government
officials on Sunday and discussed ways to strengthen economic
cooperation for the first time in 10 years. Joo met Iranian
Finance Minister Ali Tayebnia, Iran Central Bank Gov. Valiollah Seif,
Roads and Urban Development Minister Abbas Akhoundi and other prominent
decision-makers in Tehran... Along with government officials, a number
of Korean businesses expressed plans to reach their goals in the Middle
East. Posco, Koreas largest steelmaker, looks close to making headway
in Iran since the country has plans to increase its crude steel
production from 16.11 million tons to 55 million tons in the future.
Lee Hoo-geun, an executive of Posco, has signed a memorandum of
understanding with Irans steel company, Pars Kohan Diar Parsian Steel
(PKP), to jointly build an integrated steel mill with a total
production capacity of 1.6 million tons per year. Posco Energy also
signed a memorandum of understanding with PKP to build a gas power
plant in cooperation with the Korea Electric Power Corporation, while
Posco E&C also signed a memorandum of understanding with the
Iranian company to carry out a water conversion business. SK Group sent
two high-ranking executives to Iran. SK Networks President & CEO
Moon Jong-hoon and SK Energy CEO Kim Joon met with Bijan Namdar
Zanganeh, Irans petroleum minister, last week... Samsung, the nations
No. 1 conglomerate, is also looking for an opportunity in Iran. The
company sent Park Sang-jin, president of Samsung Electronics, and Park
Joo-won, president of Samsung Engineering. Samsung C&T sent
executive Lee Beom-soon, while Samsung Heavy Industries sent executive
Chung Joong-hyun... Doosan Heavy Industries recently held a showcase in
Iran to target the water conversion market with its affiliates
overseas, including Doosan Skoda Power. 'Iran is a huge market that
will help us break through the slumping economy and low international
oil prices,' said Kim Heon-tak, a vice president of Doosan Heavy
Industries. 'We will try to find an opportunity in the water conversion
business with our industry-leading technology.'" http://t.uani.com/1Sldkvk
Tehran
Times: "Iran
and the Republic of Korea on Monday signed three agreements in the form
of one memorandum of understanding (MOU) and two memorandums of
agreement (MOA) during Iran-Korea Business Forum in Tehran. Worth about
$1.6 billion, one of the MOAs was inked between Korean steel maker
POSCO and Iranian steelmaker Pars Kohan Diar Parsian Steel (PKP), to
jointly build a steel mill in Iran's Chabahar Free Trade-Industrial
Zone. The steel mill will be built based on POSCOs FINEX technology,
touted to be more environmentally-friendly and cost-efficient compared
to other steelmaking methods. Moreover, during the event, POSCO Energy,
a POSCO's electricity-generating affiliate, signed a memorandum of
understanding (MOU) with PKP to build a 500 megawatt power plant fed by
excess gas generated by the envisioned steel mill, said the Korea
Times. Also, in cooperation with Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO),
POSCO Energy will construct a desalination facility in the same area
with a desalination capacity of 60,000 tons of seawater per day.
Another MOA was inked between the Korean Doosan Heavy Industry and
Construction and the Iranian Negin Mokran Development Company (NMDC)...
Participating in the seminar were Joo Hyung Hwan, Korean minister of
trade, industry and energy; Kim Seung-ho, the South Korean ambassador to
Tehran; Mohsen Jalalpour, president of Iran Chamber of Commerce,
Industries, Mines, and Agriculture; Valiollah Afkhami, head of Trade
Promotion Organization of Iran; and Junggwan KIM, vice president of
Korea International Trade Association. The forum was organized by Korea
International Trade Association (KITA) and Korea Trade-Investment
Promotion Agency (KOTRA), wherein 500 participants from 300 companies
were present." http://t.uani.com/1RsfnZz
RFE/RL: "A Spanish hotel operator
says it plans to open what is described as Iran's first foreign-branded
seaside hotel as early as next year. Melia Hotels International said on
March 2 that the five-star property would be built in a 130-meter tower
on the Caspian Sea. The Gran Melia Ghoo hotel, which is to feature
swimming pools, bars, and a spa, will form part of a new district being
built in the resort of Salman Shahr. The property is set to be the
first luxury hotel operated by a foreign company in Iran since the
Islamic revolution forced overseas brands to flee in 1979... In
October, Iran got its first foreign-branded hotels in decades when
French operator Accor opened a Novotel and an Ibis near Tehrans
international airport." http://t.uani.com/1QnDhaZ
Business
Risk
Tasnim
(Iran): "Head
of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) deplored
procrastination in carrying out a comprehensive nuclear deal with world
powers, saying some foreign banks still refrain from lifting sanctions
against Iran for fear of possible breach of their old commitments. In
an interview with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed news website, Ali Akbar Salehi
said the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany)
is dragging its feet over terminating the anti-Iran sanctions under the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Salehi said the other side
should be held accountable for the delay in lifting the sanctions
against Iran. Some major European banks have not yet lifted their
sanctions on Iran, Salehi deplored, citing the undertakings they had
already given to the US not to launch trade interaction with Iran. He
noted that Irans Foreign Ministry needs to negotiate with the European
Union to remove that obstacle." http://t.uani.com/1LWR18A
Iran-Saudi
Tensions
NYT: "Even as Iran and Saudi
Arabia supported opposite sides in a bitter and bloody proxy war in
Syria, the two adversaries managed to preserve a tense calm just over
the border in Lebanon, where they have long competed for influence.
Now, suddenly, it looks as if Saudi Arabia is walking away - leaving
Lebanon perhaps more firmly than ever in the grip of Hezbollah and its
patron, Iran. Instead of vying behind the scenes to counter Iran, as it
has for decades, the kingdom has taken to punishing Lebanon for Hezbollahs
siding with Iran in Syria. It has slashed billions of dollars in aid,
ordered Saudi tourists to avoid the Mediterranean nation, and, on
Wednesday, declared Hezbollah, Lebanons most powerful political, social
and armed organization, a terrorist group. Suddenly, this sliver of a
nation, long beloved by Saudis for its night life, beaches and
mountains, is once again thrust into the middle of the battle for
regional dominance between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia... a move
that risks increasing Irans influence and fragmenting its Sunni rivals.
It is a tactic that virtually no one here thinks has any chance of
actually coercing Lebanon to constrain Hezbollah, a Shiite group."
http://t.uani.com/1TrAgur
AFP: "Iran warned Thursday that
its Gulf Arab rivals were jeopardising Lebanon's stability by
blacklisting the leading force behind its government, Hezbollah, as a
terror group. Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said
that the Shiite militant group, which is one of Iran's closest allies,
was a bulwark against terrorism in the region. 'We are proud of
Lebanon's Hezbollah as the vanguard of resistance against the Zionist
regime and the champion of the fight against terrorism in the region,'
Abdollahian told Iran's official IRNA news agency. 'Those who call
Hezbollah terrorists, have intentionally or unintentionally harmed the
unity and security of Lebanon.'" http://t.uani.com/1njlnf0
Daily
Star (Lebanon):
"Defense Minister Samir Moqbel Wednesday said he would ask the
government to take Irans past offers of military support seriously in
light of Saudi Arabias recent decision to halt $4 billion in military
aid. 'The Iranian side was informed that when sanctions were lifted on
Iran, we would study the Iranian [offer of] support for the Army at the
Cabinet,' Moqbel told reporters after a meeting with Parliament Speaker
Nabih Berri. The Cabinet is set to meet Thursday for a regular session.
Moqbel expressed his desire for Lebanon to reconsider Irans aid package
the same day Saudi Arabia announced its decision to halt $4 billion in
assistance to the Lebanese Army and police last month. Moqbel visited
Iran in October 2014. Members of the Saudi-backed March 14 coalition in
Lebanon had pressured the government not to accept the aid, arguing at
the time that it would violate international sanctions against
Iran." http://t.uani.com/1QVCNMC
Human
Rights
NYT: "In his native Iran, leaders
openly wish for Israel to be wiped off the map. Yet Payam Feili, a poet
and novelist, developed what he called a 'special relationship' with
the place, imagining it in his stories, which are replete with gay
themes and Jewish symbols. Now Mr. Feili, who is 30 and openly gay, is
living in Tel Aviv as he seeks asylum in Israel. He has tattooed a Star
of David on his neck. 'The more I gained a reputation outside Iran, the
harder it became for me to live in Iran,' Mr. Feili said of the Islamic
republic, where gay people have been executed. 'Long before I left
Iran,' he added, 'I thought that the only other place in the world I
could live was Israel.' ... Mr. Feili has been reluctant to speak in
detail about his experiences with the Iranian authorities, though he
said he had been fired from his job as an editor at a publishing
company after his last book was published in Germany. Mr. Kalai said he
understood that Mr. Feili had been detained three times by government
forces, and that he had been 'humiliated and maybe even
tortured.'" http://t.uani.com/1TryHwh
Opinion
& Analysis
WashPost
Editorial:
"If you are a Washington foreign policy analyst who supported the
nuclear deal with Iran, then the result of the countrys elections last
week was a resounding victory for reformists that proves the wisdom of
President Obamas engagement with the Islamic republic. If you opposed
the deal, then the election merely entrenched conservatives and
hard-liners. Such is the opacity of Iranian politics that neither of
those dueling narratives could be entirely discounted following the
release of the election results this week. What seems relatively clear
is that the voting for parliament, and for the Assembly of Experts that
will choose the next Iranian supreme leader, showed, like most Iranian
elections, that a large part of the public supports a liberalization of
the regime. But as in the past, that popular sentiment is unlikely to
bring about substantial change in the near future - in part because
many of those elected are far less reform-minded than those who voted
for them. The basis for optimism lies in the relative success of a
'list of hope' linked to President Hassan Rouhani, who led the regime
to the nuclear deal. Those moderate candidates captured at least 85
seats in the 290-member Majlis, according to tallies by the Associated
Press and Reuters, and all 30 of those contested in Tehran. More
conservatives won election overall, but hard-liners linked to the
faction of Holocaust-denying former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lost
seats. Meanwhile, a Rouhani coalition attracted considerable support in
the vote for the Assembly of Experts, including 15 of Tehrans 16
places. That body will make the critical choice of a successor to
hard-line Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who wields ultimate power in the
Iranian system. Claims of a reformist triumph, however, are overblown.
Before the elections, an Iranian liberal coalition said that 99 percent
of 3,000 pro-reform candidates had been disqualified by a hard-line
clerical council. Most of those in Mr. Rouhanis coalition are, like
him, moderate conservatives, meaning they favor economic reforms and
greater Western investment, but not liberalization of the political
system or a moderation of Irans aspiration to become the hegemon of the
Middle East. True Iranian religious and political reformers, like those
who joined the 2009 Green Movement, are in jail or exile, or were
banned from the ballot. At best, the elections will allow Mr. Rouhani
to press ahead with his economic agenda: He is intent on improving the
economy before the next presidential election, in 2017. More foreign
investment and higher living standards for Iranians could, over time,
increase pressure for moderation of the regimes domestic and foreign
policies; that, anyway, is the theory embraced by Mr. Obama. For now,
Iran can be expected to continue the course it has been pursuing in the
months since the nuclear deal was struck: waging proxy wars against the
United States and its allies around the Middle East, using its unfrozen
reserves to buy weapons, and defying non-nuclear limits - such as by
testing long-range missiles. The elections wont make the regime more
pliable, and they wont change the need for a U.S. counter to its
aggressions. They shouldnt provide an excuse for the Obama
administration to tolerate Tehrans provocations." http://t.uani.com/1pp6ppo
Denise
Hassanzade Ajiri in The Guardian: "The reformists preferences raised a few
eyebrows. As well as suggesting many unknown figures, the coalition
included some principlists, including three former intelligence
ministers not widely seen as sympathetic to the reformists traditional
goals. Sadegh Zibakalam, the reform-inclined professor of political
science at the University of Tehran, said the mass disqualification of
reformist candidates by the Guardian Council made compiling the lists
difficult. 'We didnt have much choice left. Nearly 90% of reformist
candidates, even the second- and third-rate ones, were disqualified. So
we had to either boycott the elections and leave the political ground
to the principlists, or change our strategy.' The reformists picked the
latter. According to Zibakalam they decided to invest in a new, young
generation of candidates who are not necessarily reformists and hope
that if they get to the parliament and the Assembly, at least some of
them will gravitate towards reformism. But he adds that this was not
enough and they were still short of candidates, so they had to approach
some principlists. 'We thought, Instead of letting the hardline
principlists win, lets help the moderate principlists get into the
parliament,' added Zibakalam. 'Reformism is not only about empowering
reformists, it also means you should boost the moderate principlists
against the hardliners. That also somehow paves the way for the
reformists.' The lists had some notable inclusions. In Tehran for
example, principlist parliamentary candidates Kazem Jalali and Behrouz
Nemati took strong stands against protests after the disputed 2009
post-election protests, referring to them as 'sedition', a derogatory
term commonly used by principlists. In February 2011 Jalali asked for
the heaviest punishment for opposition leaders Mehdi Karroubi and Mir
Hossein Mousavi. No further punishments were in fact meted out upon
Jalalis request. And as for the Assembly of Experts, former
intelligence ministers Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi and Mohammad
Reyshahri were on the Tehran list. During Dorri Najafabadis time at the
ministry, some of its agents were involved in the murder of dissidents
and intellectuals, as the ministry admitted in a statement of January
1999. It is not known whether Najafabadi or Reyshahri were aware of the
killings. In April 2011 the European Union imposed a travel ban on
Dorri Najafabadi, and froze his assets for 'serious human rights
violations'. After the 1979 revolution, Reyshahri acted as chief judge
of the Military Revolutionary Tribunal, which tried political
dissidents and sentenced thousands to death, some by Reyshahris own
order. In Hamedan province, Ali Razini, currently a member of the
Assembly of Experts, was on the reformists list. As yet another judge
of the Military Revolutionary Tribunal, he has been implicated in the
execution of political prisoners. And in Khuzestan province Ali
Fallahian, also a member of the Assembly, is another example. As a
Minister of Intelligence during the Rafsanjani presidency, Fallahian
was accused of involvement by journalists, including Akbar Ganji,
Emadeddin Baghi, and politicians such as Mostafa Tajzadeh, in killing
dissidents. Fallahian is also on Interpols wanted list for his alleged
connection to the 1995 bombing of a Jewish centre in Buenos Aires that
killed 85 people. Fallahian does not appear to have responded to these
claims. The reformists, including former president Mohammad Khatami,
encouraged people to vote for all the candidates on their lists to stop
the hardliners. While Khatami hasnt named anyone specifically, in
Tehran current members of the Assembly, Ayatollahs Ahmad Jannati,
Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi and Mohammad Yazdi, were the likely
targets. Mohsen Kadivar, a research professor of Islamic studies at
Duke University, North Carolina, who trained as a cleric at the seminary
in Qom, questions this strategy. 'Lets say instead of Khameneis
appointed figures, former intelligence ministers get into the Assembly.
What difference does it make? They also have very dark political
records. I dont see any difference.' Zibakalam disagrees somewhat.
'Unfortunately, we had to choose between bad and worse,' he says. 'I
agree Reyshahri has killed a lot of people...He has no democratic
background, but he is also not against democracy and freedom. And also,
what other options do we have? To let Jannati and Mesbah-Yazdi, who are
openly against any freedom, get in?' Zibakalam also added that people
change over time, citing Mousavi, Rafsanjani and Khatami. 'During the
1980s they also had no respect for democracy, the rule of law and
liberalism, but they had to change over time. If we can accept their
changes as genuine, why cant we accept that other people change
too?'" http://t.uani.com/1QnGlnv
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear
Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
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