Thursday, March 3, 2016

Eye on Iran: Doubts Rise in Iran About Conclusive Election Results








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NYT: "Five days after national elections in Iran, the Interior Ministry has yet to release official detailed results, and some analysts are beginning to doubt that it ever will. While the government and its supporters clearly won a sweeping victory in the capital, the picture in the rest of the country is much more diffuse and may remain that way for some time, if not permanently. The Interior Ministry, which is overseeing the voting for the 290-seat Parliament and the clerical Assembly of Experts, announced on Tuesday the names of 222 parliamentary candidates who won nationwide. It also announced that there would be a second round of voting for 68 seats in several constituencies in April. But there has been no official comment on the affiliation of the winning candidates, and there may never be, making it difficult to determine how many seats the various factions have won. A consensus seems to be developing - based on the most credible news media efforts at a tabulation - that the reformist-moderate combination seems to have secured 80 to 90 seats in the Majlis, or Parliament. The hard-liners seem to have won a similar number. Around 60 seats have gone to independents, and the rest will be determined in the second round of voting. The problem is that there are no parties in Iran, only individual candidates and temporary, loose alliances. This makes it extremely complicated to count which person supports which faction. One famous politician, for example, Ali Motahhari, came in second in Tehran on the combined list of government supporters. But when it comes to social issues like the obligatory Islamic head scarf for women, he will probably side with the hard-liners... What seems likely is that the new Parliament will find itself without a dominant faction, a rarity in the Islamic Republic. Analysts expect that even the second round will not bring a majority to any of the groups. This could lead to gridlock, experts say, because under Irans Constitution, laws need a two-thirds majority for passage. Factions can obstruct the votes simply by not showing up." http://t.uani.com/1Qud6NC

Bloomberg: "Irans return to global oil markets after sanctions were lifted isnt living up to the countrys grand ambitions, or at least not yet. Six weeks after the historic nuclear deal that allowed Iran to resume oil sales around the world, the OPEC member is shipping barely a third of the extra 500,000 barrels a day it had vowed to unleash within weeks of sanctions being lifted. The country faces hurdles at every step, whether reviving output from aging oil wells or overcoming lingering banking constraints that have forced it to sell crude in barter arrangements, according to BNP Paribas SA. 'Iran is facing short-term obstacles in regaining market share lost to other OPEC members, and in restoring production to pre-sanctions levels,' said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas in London. 'Longer term, the legal and regulatory framework is an obstacle.' ... Iran loaded its first cargo of oil to Europe since 2012 last month onto a tanker chartered to French oil company Total SA. The Atlantas, a very large crude carrier, loaded at the Persian nations port of Kharg Island last month and is sailing around the Horn of Africa on its way to Europe, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Thats a longer journey than Iranian crude used to take to European ports because of another logistical hurdle -- Egypt and Gulf Arab crude producers have yet to let Iran resume oil shipments through a pipeline connecting the Red Sea with the Mediterranean. The SuMed pipeline provides a shorter transit than the African route for oil cargoes from the Gulf region to the Europe that are carried in ships too large to sail through the Suez Canal. The tankers can transfer some of their oil into the pipeline, thus lightening their loads for passage through the canal, or fully discharge cargoes that can be collected by smaller vessels at the far end. Arab Petroleum Pipelines Co., which operates the link, is still reviewing terms of the agreement that removed sanctions on Iran in January, according to a company official. The operator is seeking to ensure Iran complies with sanctions regulations before resuming oil shipments halted since August 2012, said the official, who asked not to be identified citing company policy. Another oil tanker, Distya Akula, has been anchored at the southern approach to the Suez Canal since Feb. 24 after loading at Kharg Island, ship-tracking data show. Some banks have been refusing to process payments for European refiners seeking to buy cargoes of Iranian crude. Hellenic Petroleum SA has struggled to secure deliveries because banks wouldn't process payments, two people familiar with the matter said last week. With Republican candidates threatening to undo President Barack Obamas lifting of Iran sanctions, most European banks will likely keep avoiding financing deals with the Islamic Republic, according to Caitlin Webber, a government analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. National Iranian Oil Co. has sought to circumvent this problem by agreeing to swap crude for gasoline with European trading houses Glencore Plc, Trafigura Beheer BV and Vitol Group SA, according to a report by Iranian news service Mehr." http://t.uani.com/1QOnyPq

AFP: "Iran has invited US plane manufacturer Boeing for talks on modernising its fleet, Transport Minister Abbas Akhoundi said Thursday, weeks after Tehran's nuclear deal took effect. 'After the authorisation from the US administration to Boeing, we have invited the company to begin talks on developing the country's air fleet,' Akhoundi said, without giving a date, quoted by state television news agency IRIB. Akhoundi's deputy, Asghar Fakhrieh Kashan, told AFP: 'We never closed the doors to Boeing, and we are ready for negotiations whenever they come.' Boeing said on February 19 it had received authorisation from the US administration -- despite the lack of Washington-Tehran diplomatic ties for more than three decades -- to study the commercial plane market in Iran, in the wake of the lifting of nuclear sanctions in mid-January." http://t.uani.com/1OTJpnl

U.S.-Iran Relations

Al-Monitor: "Barely a week after the Jan. 16 lifting of nuclear-related sanctions on Iran, Tehran hosted its first international business summit in years. The event, sponsored by the Centre for Aviation (CAPA), brought together 400 executives of the global aviation industry to re-establish links with their Iranian counterparts after a decades-long estrangement. What raised eyebrows in Tehran and Washington, however, was the conspicuous absence of Boeing, the worlds largest aircraft manufacturer... It turns out that Boeing, while skipping the high-profile CAPA event in Tehran, has actually been unofficially negotiating behind the scenes with Iranian civil aviation officials for a considerable time... US companies risk the wrath of special interest groups devoted to inflicting reputational damage because of trade with Iran...Groups such as United Against a Nuclear Iran have also been successful in convincing around half of the state legislatures to pass measures punishing companies operating in Iran. These local laws have directed state pension funds with billions of dollars in assets to divest from targeted companies and sometimes have barred these companies from public contracts." http://t.uani.com/1RKsGY7

Sanctions Relief

Reuters: "Iran, OPEC's No. 3 producer, is expected to raise its oil exports in March to around 1.65 million barrels per day from 1.5 million bpd a month earlier on the back of higher crude shipments to Europe, two industry sources told Reuters on Thursday. State-run National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC) is expected to ship around 250,000-300,000 bpd to Europe this month after it finalised term deals with France's Total and Spanish refiner Cepsa, effective from March 1, said the sources, who are familiar with Iran's exports. The French oil major has a contract to buy about 200,000 bpd, while Cepsa's deal was for about 35,000 bpd, one source said. Total is expected to lift at least 5 million barrels in March, the source added. Litasco, the trading arm of Russia's Lukoil, Cepsa and Total have become the first buyers in Europe after the lifting of sanctions and lifted trial cargoes in February, trading sources told Reuters. Hellenic Petroleum, Greece's biggest oil refiner, has said it will receive its first shipment of Iranian crude oil at the end of March." http://t.uani.com/1LWMdjt

Reuters: "India's oil imports from Iran rose by over a fifth in February, the first month after a nuclear deal that lifted restrictions on Tehran's oil exports, preliminary tanker data obtained by Reuters shows... Iran is working to regain market share after sanctions relief and exports had already risen by 500,000 bpd in February, Mohsen Ghamsari, director of international affairs at National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC), told Reuters on Tuesday. New Delhi shipped in 215,500 bpd from Tehran in February, a rise of about 21 percent from last month and more than double the about 111,000 bpd in the same month a year ago, the data showed... In February Essar Oil was the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, shipping in 110,200 bpd, followed by about 69,500 bpd by Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. MRPL shipped in just one cargo of Iranian oil in February. Indian Oil Corp, which rarely buys Iranian oil, received a cargo of oil equivalent to about 35,800 bpd... Reliance Industries Ltd, which halted supplies from Iran in 2010, is preparing to lift a million barrels each of condensate and oil next month." http://t.uani.com/219BkC1

Korea Joongang Daily: "The government and Korean companies have taken the first steps to capture new business opportunities in Iran, which has emerged as the 'promised land' of possibilities since economic sanctions were lifted. According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on Monday, Minister Joo Hyung-hwan met with a number of Iranian government officials on Sunday and discussed ways to strengthen economic cooperation for the first time in 10 years.  Joo met Iranian Finance Minister Ali Tayebnia, Iran Central Bank Gov. Valiollah Seif, Roads and Urban Development Minister Abbas Akhoundi and other prominent decision-makers in Tehran... Along with government officials, a number of Korean businesses expressed plans to reach their goals in the Middle East. Posco, Koreas largest steelmaker, looks close to making headway in Iran since the country has plans to increase its crude steel production from 16.11 million tons to 55 million tons in the future. Lee Hoo-geun, an executive of Posco, has signed a memorandum of understanding with Irans steel company, Pars Kohan Diar Parsian Steel (PKP), to jointly build an integrated steel mill with a total production capacity of 1.6 million tons per year. Posco Energy also signed a memorandum of understanding with PKP to build a gas power plant in cooperation with the Korea Electric Power Corporation, while Posco E&C also signed a memorandum of understanding with the Iranian company to carry out a water conversion business. SK Group sent two high-ranking executives to Iran. SK Networks President & CEO Moon Jong-hoon and SK Energy CEO Kim Joon met with Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, Irans petroleum minister, last week... Samsung, the nations No. 1 conglomerate, is also looking for an opportunity in Iran. The company sent Park Sang-jin, president of Samsung Electronics, and Park Joo-won, president of Samsung Engineering. Samsung C&T sent executive Lee Beom-soon, while Samsung Heavy Industries sent executive Chung Joong-hyun... Doosan Heavy Industries recently held a showcase in Iran to target the water conversion market with its affiliates overseas, including Doosan Skoda Power. 'Iran is a huge market that will help us break through the slumping economy and low international oil prices,' said Kim Heon-tak, a vice president of Doosan Heavy Industries. 'We will try to find an opportunity in the water conversion business with our industry-leading technology.'" http://t.uani.com/1Sldkvk

Tehran Times: "Iran and the Republic of Korea on Monday signed three agreements in the form of one memorandum of understanding (MOU) and two memorandums of agreement (MOA) during Iran-Korea Business Forum in Tehran. Worth about $1.6 billion, one of the MOAs was inked between Korean steel maker POSCO and Iranian steelmaker Pars Kohan Diar Parsian Steel (PKP), to jointly build a steel mill in Iran's Chabahar Free Trade-Industrial Zone. The steel mill will be built based on POSCOs FINEX technology, touted to be more environmentally-friendly and cost-efficient compared to other steelmaking methods. Moreover, during the event, POSCO Energy, a POSCO's electricity-generating affiliate, signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with PKP to build a 500 megawatt power plant fed by excess gas generated by the envisioned steel mill, said the Korea Times. Also, in cooperation with Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO), POSCO Energy will construct a desalination facility in the same area with a desalination capacity of 60,000 tons of seawater per day. Another MOA was inked between the Korean Doosan Heavy Industry and Construction and the Iranian Negin Mokran Development Company (NMDC)... Participating in the seminar were Joo Hyung Hwan, Korean minister of trade, industry and energy; Kim Seung-ho, the South Korean ambassador to Tehran; Mohsen Jalalpour, president of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture; Valiollah Afkhami, head of Trade Promotion Organization of Iran; and Junggwan KIM, vice president of Korea International Trade Association. The forum was organized by Korea International Trade Association (KITA) and Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), wherein 500 participants from 300 companies were present." http://t.uani.com/1RsfnZz

RFE/RL: "A Spanish hotel operator says it plans to open what is described as Iran's first foreign-branded seaside hotel as early as next year. Melia Hotels International said on March 2 that the five-star property would be built in a 130-meter tower on the Caspian Sea. The Gran Melia Ghoo hotel, which is to feature swimming pools, bars, and a spa, will form part of a new district being built in the resort of Salman Shahr. The property is set to be the first luxury hotel operated by a foreign company in Iran since the Islamic revolution forced overseas brands to flee in 1979... In October, Iran got its first foreign-branded hotels in decades when French operator Accor opened a Novotel and an Ibis near Tehrans international airport." http://t.uani.com/1QnDhaZ

Business Risk

Tasnim (Iran): "Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) deplored procrastination in carrying out a comprehensive nuclear deal with world powers, saying some foreign banks still refrain from lifting sanctions against Iran for fear of possible breach of their old commitments. In an interview with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed news website, Ali Akbar Salehi said the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) is dragging its feet over terminating the anti-Iran sanctions under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Salehi said the other side should be held accountable for the delay in lifting the sanctions against Iran. Some major European banks have not yet lifted their sanctions on Iran, Salehi deplored, citing the undertakings they had already given to the US not to launch trade interaction with Iran. He noted that Irans Foreign Ministry needs to negotiate with the European Union to remove that obstacle." http://t.uani.com/1LWR18A

Iran-Saudi Tensions

NYT: "Even as Iran and Saudi Arabia supported opposite sides in a bitter and bloody proxy war in Syria, the two adversaries managed to preserve a tense calm just over the border in Lebanon, where they have long competed for influence. Now, suddenly, it looks as if Saudi Arabia is walking away - leaving Lebanon perhaps more firmly than ever in the grip of Hezbollah and its patron, Iran. Instead of vying behind the scenes to counter Iran, as it has for decades, the kingdom has taken to punishing Lebanon for Hezbollahs siding with Iran in Syria. It has slashed billions of dollars in aid, ordered Saudi tourists to avoid the Mediterranean nation, and, on Wednesday, declared Hezbollah, Lebanons most powerful political, social and armed organization, a terrorist group. Suddenly, this sliver of a nation, long beloved by Saudis for its night life, beaches and mountains, is once again thrust into the middle of the battle for regional dominance between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia... a move that risks increasing Irans influence and fragmenting its Sunni rivals. It is a tactic that virtually no one here thinks has any chance of actually coercing Lebanon to constrain Hezbollah, a Shiite group." http://t.uani.com/1TrAgur

AFP: "Iran warned Thursday that its Gulf Arab rivals were jeopardising Lebanon's stability by blacklisting the leading force behind its government, Hezbollah, as a terror group. Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said that the Shiite militant group, which is one of Iran's closest allies, was a bulwark against terrorism in the region. 'We are proud of Lebanon's Hezbollah as the vanguard of resistance against the Zionist regime and the champion of the fight against terrorism in the region,' Abdollahian told Iran's official IRNA news agency. 'Those who call Hezbollah terrorists, have intentionally or unintentionally harmed the unity and security of Lebanon.'" http://t.uani.com/1njlnf0

Daily Star (Lebanon): "Defense Minister Samir Moqbel Wednesday said he would ask the government to take Irans past offers of military support seriously in light of Saudi Arabias recent decision to halt $4 billion in military aid. 'The Iranian side was informed that when sanctions were lifted on Iran, we would study the Iranian [offer of] support for the Army at the Cabinet,' Moqbel told reporters after a meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. The Cabinet is set to meet Thursday for a regular session. Moqbel expressed his desire for Lebanon to reconsider Irans aid package the same day Saudi Arabia announced its decision to halt $4 billion in assistance to the Lebanese Army and police last month. Moqbel visited Iran in October 2014. Members of the Saudi-backed March 14 coalition in Lebanon had pressured the government not to accept the aid, arguing at the time that it would violate international sanctions against Iran." http://t.uani.com/1QVCNMC

Human Rights

NYT: "In his native Iran, leaders openly wish for Israel to be wiped off the map. Yet Payam Feili, a poet and novelist, developed what he called a 'special relationship' with the place, imagining it in his stories, which are replete with gay themes and Jewish symbols. Now Mr. Feili, who is 30 and openly gay, is living in Tel Aviv as he seeks asylum in Israel. He has tattooed a Star of David on his neck. 'The more I gained a reputation outside Iran, the harder it became for me to live in Iran,' Mr. Feili said of the Islamic republic, where gay people have been executed. 'Long before I left Iran,' he added, 'I thought that the only other place in the world I could live was Israel.' ... Mr. Feili has been reluctant to speak in detail about his experiences with the Iranian authorities, though he said he had been fired from his job as an editor at a publishing company after his last book was published in Germany. Mr. Kalai said he understood that Mr. Feili had been detained three times by government forces, and that he had been 'humiliated and maybe even tortured.'" http://t.uani.com/1TryHwh

Opinion & Analysis

WashPost Editorial: "If you are a Washington foreign policy analyst who supported the nuclear deal with Iran, then the result of the countrys elections last week was a resounding victory for reformists that proves the wisdom of President Obamas engagement with the Islamic republic. If you opposed the deal, then the election merely entrenched conservatives and hard-liners. Such is the opacity of Iranian politics that neither of those dueling narratives could be entirely discounted following the release of the election results this week. What seems relatively clear is that the voting for parliament, and for the Assembly of Experts that will choose the next Iranian supreme leader, showed, like most Iranian elections, that a large part of the public supports a liberalization of the regime. But as in the past, that popular sentiment is unlikely to bring about substantial change in the near future - in part because many of those elected are far less reform-minded than those who voted for them. The basis for optimism lies in the relative success of a 'list of hope' linked to President Hassan Rouhani, who led the regime to the nuclear deal. Those moderate candidates captured at least 85 seats in the 290-member Majlis, according to tallies by the Associated Press and Reuters, and all 30 of those contested in Tehran. More conservatives won election overall, but hard-liners linked to the faction of Holocaust-denying former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lost seats. Meanwhile, a Rouhani coalition attracted considerable support in the vote for the Assembly of Experts, including 15 of Tehrans 16 places. That body will make the critical choice of a successor to hard-line Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who wields ultimate power in the Iranian system. Claims of a reformist triumph, however, are overblown. Before the elections, an Iranian liberal coalition said that 99 percent of 3,000 pro-reform candidates had been disqualified by a hard-line clerical council. Most of those in Mr. Rouhanis coalition are, like him, moderate conservatives, meaning they favor economic reforms and greater Western investment, but not liberalization of the political system or a moderation of Irans aspiration to become the hegemon of the Middle East. True Iranian religious and political reformers, like those who joined the 2009 Green Movement, are in jail or exile, or were banned from the ballot. At best, the elections will allow Mr. Rouhani to press ahead with his economic agenda: He is intent on improving the economy before the next presidential election, in 2017. More foreign investment and higher living standards for Iranians could, over time, increase pressure for moderation of the regimes domestic and foreign policies; that, anyway, is the theory embraced by Mr. Obama. For now, Iran can be expected to continue the course it has been pursuing in the months since the nuclear deal was struck: waging proxy wars against the United States and its allies around the Middle East, using its unfrozen reserves to buy weapons, and defying non-nuclear limits - such as by testing long-range missiles. The elections wont make the regime more pliable, and they wont change the need for a U.S. counter to its aggressions. They shouldnt provide an excuse for the Obama administration to tolerate Tehrans provocations." http://t.uani.com/1pp6ppo

Denise Hassanzade Ajiri in The Guardian: "The reformists preferences raised a few eyebrows. As well as suggesting many unknown figures, the coalition included some principlists, including three former intelligence ministers not widely seen as sympathetic to the reformists traditional goals. Sadegh Zibakalam, the reform-inclined professor of political science at the University of Tehran, said the mass disqualification of reformist candidates by the Guardian Council made compiling the lists difficult. 'We didnt have much choice left. Nearly 90% of reformist candidates, even the second- and third-rate ones, were disqualified. So we had to either boycott the elections and leave the political ground to the principlists, or change our strategy.' The reformists picked the latter. According to Zibakalam they decided to invest in a new, young generation of candidates who are not necessarily reformists and hope that if they get to the parliament and the Assembly, at least some of them will gravitate towards reformism. But he adds that this was not enough and they were still short of candidates, so they had to approach some principlists. 'We thought, Instead of letting the hardline principlists win, lets help the moderate principlists get into the parliament,' added Zibakalam. 'Reformism is not only about empowering reformists, it also means you should boost the moderate principlists against the hardliners. That also somehow paves the way for the reformists.' The lists had some notable inclusions. In Tehran for example, principlist parliamentary candidates Kazem Jalali and Behrouz Nemati took strong stands against protests after the disputed 2009 post-election protests, referring to them as 'sedition', a derogatory term commonly used by principlists. In February 2011 Jalali asked for the heaviest punishment for opposition leaders Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi. No further punishments were in fact meted out upon Jalalis request. And as for the Assembly of Experts, former intelligence ministers Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi and Mohammad Reyshahri were on the Tehran list. During Dorri Najafabadis time at the ministry, some of its agents were involved in the murder of dissidents and intellectuals, as the ministry admitted in a statement of January 1999. It is not known whether Najafabadi or Reyshahri were aware of the killings. In April 2011 the European Union imposed a travel ban on Dorri Najafabadi, and froze his assets for 'serious human rights violations'. After the 1979 revolution, Reyshahri acted as chief judge of the Military Revolutionary Tribunal, which tried political dissidents and sentenced thousands to death, some by Reyshahris own order. In Hamedan province, Ali Razini, currently a member of the Assembly of Experts, was on the reformists list. As yet another judge of the Military Revolutionary Tribunal, he has been implicated in the execution of political prisoners. And in Khuzestan province Ali Fallahian, also a member of the Assembly, is another example. As a Minister of Intelligence during the Rafsanjani presidency, Fallahian was accused of involvement by journalists, including Akbar Ganji, Emadeddin Baghi, and politicians such as Mostafa Tajzadeh, in killing dissidents. Fallahian is also on Interpols wanted list for his alleged connection to the 1995 bombing of a Jewish centre in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people. Fallahian does not appear to have responded to these claims. The reformists, including former president Mohammad Khatami, encouraged people to vote for all the candidates on their lists to stop the hardliners. While Khatami hasnt named anyone specifically, in Tehran current members of the Assembly, Ayatollahs Ahmad Jannati, Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi and Mohammad Yazdi, were the likely targets. Mohsen Kadivar, a research professor of Islamic studies at Duke University, North Carolina, who trained as a cleric at the seminary in Qom, questions this strategy. 'Lets say instead of Khameneis appointed figures, former intelligence ministers get into the Assembly. What difference does it make? They also have very dark political records. I dont see any difference.' Zibakalam disagrees somewhat. 'Unfortunately, we had to choose between bad and worse,' he says. 'I agree Reyshahri has killed a lot of people...He has no democratic background, but he is also not against democracy and freedom. And also, what other options do we have? To let Jannati and Mesbah-Yazdi, who are openly against any freedom, get in?' Zibakalam also added that people change over time, citing Mousavi, Rafsanjani and Khatami. 'During the 1980s they also had no respect for democracy, the rule of law and liberalism, but they had to change over time. If we can accept their changes as genuine, why cant we accept that other people change too?'" http://t.uani.com/1QnGlnv
       

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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