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FT: "Iran's moderates may have scored a big success
at the polls last month but centrist president Hassan Rouhani is still
likely to find his reform agenda blocked by hardliners. Even though they
disqualified the majority of prominent pro-reform candidates, hardliners
failed to retain their parliamentary majority and moderates won an almost
equal share of the 290-member legislative body... But hardliners still
hold sway in institutions, including the elite Revolutionary Guards - a
military, economic and intelligence force - and the judiciary, both of
which are close to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Mr
Khamenei supported Mr Rouhani in international negotiations over Iran's
nuclear programme, ensuring that hardliners were unable to sabotage the talks.
But with the nuclear deal now in force and foreign investors clamouring
for business as sanctions are lifted, the ayatollah may tilt toward his
hardline loyalists, say analysts. 'Mr Rouhani has to work very hard on
his relations with Mr Khamenei from now on,' said one senior reformist
politician. 'Otherwise, he will not be able to achieve much and
hardliners will keep sabotaging his policies, particularly on foreign
investment.' ... On Monday, Mr Khamenei appointed a hardline custodian to
run Astan-e Qods Razavi, a religious business foundation which has turned
into an empire with astronomical wealth and political influence from its
base in the holy city of Mashhad. The new appointment may further
embolden the hardliners who already considered the northeastern city to
be their backyard... The president's efforts to attract
desperately-needed foreign investment have also been undermined. Iran's
oil ministry has been unable to hold a conference in London to publicise
its new contract for foreign investors in the sector because hardliners
have attacked the contract as an effort by international oil companies to
loot Iran's natural resources. Hardliners have also attacked the
government for signing a flurry of high-profile contracts worth more than
$30bn with French and Italian companies - during a recent trip by Mr
Rouhani to Europe and have promised to 'scrutinise' them. 'The supreme
leader will try to open [the economy] as little as possible, letting in
some fresh air and capital, but he will try to maintain the status quo by
slowing down an inevitable process [of opening the country to foreign
investment],' said a western businessman in Tehran." http://t.uani.com/1R05sKg
Reuters: "Iran complained on Saturday
that European banks and companies were too wary about renewing business
ties following the lifting of economic sanctions and said it had asked
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to ease their concerns. In January,
world powers led by the United States and the European Union lifted most
sanctions on Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear program. But some
U.S. sanctions remain, and U.S. banks remain prohibited from doing
business with Iran directly or indirectly because Washington still
accuses Iran of 'supporting terrorism'. That has deterred European
institutions, which fear they could face U.S. legal problems if they
re-establish banking links. 'There is still Iranophobia in the banking
sector that we're trying to overcome,' Hamid Tehranfar, a vice governor
of Iran's central bank, was quoted as saying by state news agency IRNA.
'We have asked the International Monetary Fund to review our regulations
so other countries' banks feel reassured. The IMF will announce its
assessment in 2018,' he added, without explaining why it would take two
years. As part of sanctions relief, most of Iran's banks were reconnected
to the SWIFT international payments network last month, allowing them to
resume cross-border transactions with foreign banks. But because of
foreign institutions' legal fears, actual activity has remained very
limited. Alex Thursby, chief executive of National Bank of Abu Dhabi, the
emirate's biggest bank, said this week that in reality, no banks could
conduct transactions with Iran in U.S. dollars under current
conditions." http://t.uani.com/1W3goLz
Reuters: "The U.S. Commerce Department
is set to place export restrictions on Chinese telecoms equipment maker
ZTE Corp for alleged violations of U.S. export controls on Iran,
according to documents seen by Reuters. The restrictions will make it
difficult for the company to acquire U.S. products by requiring ZTE's
suppliers to apply for an export license before shipping any
American-made equipment or parts to ZTE. According to a Commerce
Department notice that will be published next week in the U.S. Federal
Register, the license applications generally will be denied. The
restrictions will take effect Tuesday, Reuters has learned, and apply to
any company worldwide that wants to ship American-made products to ZTE
Corp in China. Those companies are not the target of the export curbs on
ZTE. 'This is a significant new burden on trade with ZTE,' a senior
official at the Commerce Department told Reuters... 'We believe the
restrictions, if implemented, will cause significant supply problems to
ZTE,' Jefferies analyst Cynthia Meng wrote in a note, adding that ZTE has
major trading relationships with several U.S. companies including
Qualcomm, Microsoft and IBM... The Commerce Department investigated ZTE
for alleged export-control violations following reports by Reuters in
2012 that the company had signed contracts to ship millions of dollars worth
of hardware and software from some of America's best-known technology
companies to Iran's largest telecoms carrier, Telecommunication Co of
Iran (TCI), and a unit of the consortium that controls it." http://t.uani.com/1paK4we
Military
Matters
Ynetnews: "Russia has decided to freeze
its shipment of S-300 anti-aircraft missile system to Iran, Kuwaiti
newspaper Al-Jarida reported on Saturday. The paper quotes a highly
reliable source as saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered
to suspend delivery of the advanced aerial defense system because Iran
failed to lived up to its promise not deliver advanced weaponry to the
Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah. The source, who wished to
remain anonymous, told the Kuwaiti paper that Putin based his decision on
information he received from Israel, proving that the Iranians had
transferred the advanced Russian-made SA-22 surface-to-air missile system
to Hezbollah more than once. According to the report, Russian pilots
flying missions over Syria and Lebanon have frequently mentioned that
their radar systems detected advanced surface-to-air missile systems in
Hezbollah-controlled regions on the Lebanese-Syrian border. According to
the report, Russian pilots flying missions over Syria and Lebanon have
frequently mentioned that their radar systems detected advanced
surface-to-air missile systems in Hezbollah-controlled regions on the
Lebanese-Syrian border. Russia signed an $800 million contract to sell
Iran the S-300 missile system in 2007, but in 2010 suspended their
delivery because of strong objections from the United States and
Israel." http://t.uani.com/1W3ieMl
U.S.-Iran
Relations
AP: "The family and colleagues of a
former FBI agent who disappeared in Iran nine years ago while on a CIA
mission expressed anger and disappointment at a rally Saturday that he wasn't
part of a January prisoner exchange with Tehran. Several hundred people
attended the rally for Robert Levinson, 67, who disappeared from Iran's
Kish Island in March 2007. A 2013 Associated Press investigation revealed
that the married father of seven was working for the CIA on an
unauthorized intelligence-gathering mission to glean information about
Iran's nuclear program. If Levinson remains alive, he has been held
captive longer than any American - longer than then-AP journalist Terry
Anderson, who was held more than six years in Beirut in the 1980s. Unlike
Anderson, Levinson's whereabouts and captors remain a mystery. U.S.
officials believe the Iranian government was behind his disappearance. It
has denied that... The rally's stage was decorated with nine chained and
padlocked glass cookie jars filled with yellow rocks, each one
representing a day Levinson has been held captive. The crowd held yellow
signs showing the social media hashtag 'whataboutbob.' ... Retired FBI
agent Ellen Glasser harshly criticized the Obama administration for not
demanding that Iran release Levinson or, at least, turn over information
about his whereabouts. The FBI says it still investigates every lead and
remains committed to finding Levinson. A $5 million reward for information
leading to his whereabouts remains in effect. 'The failure to push
publicly and hard for answers about Bob was an outrage,' Glasser said. 'A
rare opportunity was squandered when we had the most possible leverage to
bring him home. Despite many requests, no new pressure was put upon Iran
to produce information on Bob's status.'" http://t.uani.com/1U7gzpW
NYT: "Senior American officials held
confidential talks with Iran about Iraq's future in advance of the United
States-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein, and secured a promise that
the Iranian military would not fire at United States warplanes that strayed
into Iranian airspace, according to a new book by a ranking Bush
administration official. The previously undisclosed meetings, which were
held in Geneva with Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian ambassador to the
United Nations and future foreign minister, continued even after American
troops seized Baghdad in April 2003. 'We wanted a commitment that Iran
would not fire on U.S. aircraft if they accidentally flew over Iranian
territory,' Zalmay Khalilzad, a former ambassador to Iraq, Afghanistan
and the United Nations, wrote in the 'The Envoy,' being published this
month by St. Martin's Press. 'Zarif agreed,' he added. 'We also hoped
Iran would encourage Iraqi Shiites to participate constructively in
establishing a new government in Iraq.' Some prominent Iraqi Shiite
leaders who had opposed Hussein had long been supported by Iran, which is
the major Shiite power in the region. But the Americans and Iranians had
major differences over how to form a new Iraqi government and deal with
Tehran's support for terrorism. In May 2003, the Bush administration
halted the dialogue after it accused Iran of harboring leaders of Al
Qaeda who were blamed for a terrorist attack that killed eight Americans
in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia." http://t.uani.com/1R2XMNy
Business
Risk
Tasnim
(Iran):
"Iranian Ambassador to Germany Ali Majedi said fear of facing US
punishment has prevented growth in banking relations between the Islamic
Republic and foreign countries after the recent implementation of
Tehran's nuclear deal with six world powers. Addressing a conference on
Iran-Europe banking and trade relations in Tehran on Saturday, Majedi
highlighted the reasons behind banking problems in economic transactions
between Iran and European nations. When Tehran pursued settling banking
problems with major banks in Europe, the issue of the US sanctions was
raised, the ambassador said, adding that he has held talks with German
officials and resolved the banking problems in the Western European
country. 'The failure to establish relations between Iran and foreign
(banks) has its roots in the fear of facing US punishments,' the diplomat
noted. Majedi had told reporters last month that a US Treasury delegation
would pay an official visit to Germany soon to help resolve the remaining
problems in banking ties between Tehran and Berlin after the removal of
anti-Iran sanctions. 'We are witnessing the German side's seriousness to
resolve these problems,' the diplomat said at the time." http://t.uani.com/1U7bIoR
Sanctions
Relief
Bloomberg: "The Monte Toledo oil tanker
covered the uneventful voyage from Iran to Europe with a haul of 1
million barrels of crude in just 17 days, but its journey has been four
years in the making. On Sunday, the tanker became the first to deliver
Iranian crude into Europe since mid-2012, when Brussels imposed an oil
embargo in an attempt to force the Middle Eastern nation to negotiate the
end of its nuclear program. The ban was lifted in January as part of a
broader deal that ended a decade of sanctions. The 275-meter (900-foot)
tanker started offloading its cargo into a refinery owned by Cia. Espanola
de Petroleos, near Algeciras, a few miles from Gibraltar. By midday, the
vessel had already pumped to shore about a fifth of its cargo. Jose Ramon
Gomez Estancona, the captain of the Monte Toledo, said loading the crude
at the Kharg Island terminal off Iran was a similar process to before the
embargo. Staff at the port were 'happy that normality was returning' to
the country's oil exports, he said. In southern Spain, the tanker's
arrival was met with little fanfare. It was a quiet Sunday at the refinery,
and for the workers, the Monte Toledo is just one of the eight or so
vessels they expect to receive this month. By the time the refinery has
taken in all the Iranian crude, another tanker from Algeria will already
be waiting... Before the embargo Europe imported on average about 400,000
barrels of oil a day from Iran, according to the International Energy
Agency. Cepsa alone was buying about 60,000 barrels a day. Total SA was
among the biggest purchasers and the French company is waiting to receive
the Atlantas tanker later this month at its refinery in Le Havre. Other
European top buyers in the past, including Repsol SA, Eni SpA and
Hellenic Petroleum SA, have yet to purchase any." http://t.uani.com/1ROPeXJ
AFP: "Iran and Turkey aim to triple
their annual trade to $30 billion within two years, officials said in
Tehran on Saturday, despite the two countries being at odds over fighting
in Syria. Following last year's nuclear deal with world powers Iran is
being targeted by Europe as a new market but Turkey is also seeking to
cash in after the end of most international sanctions on Iran. Visiting
the Iranian capital, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu met Iran's
first vice president Eshaq Jahangiri. 'We have set a target of $30
billion for our trade,' Jahangiri said in a press briefing broadcast on
state television, outlining a two year timeframe for upping the figure
from its current $10 billion. Trade between Turkey and Iran slipped from
$15 billion to around $10 billion in the past 12 months, with less
imports reaching Tehran." http://t.uani.com/1U7rfVJ
WSJ: "Can you imagine investing in a
fund tied to Iran? Investing in these funds is broadly prohibited for
U.S. investors, and there is no indication that will change soon. But for
Europeans, it can be done-within limits-following the lifting on Jan. 16
of the nuclear-related sanctions imposed on Iran by an international
coalition... However, American individuals and entities are still
prohibited from nearly all dealings with Iran, with limited exceptions
such as the export of food and medicine to the country. That's because of
U.S. sanctions still in place related to human rights, terrorism and
Iran's ballistic-missile program. In fact, new sanctions tied to the
ballistic-missile program were imposed on Jan. 17. European investors
have a much freer hand, but they need to be wary of some remaining
European Union sanctions. In addition, even people who aren't American
citizens or living in the U.S. are subject to certain remaining U.S.
sanctions-for example, prohibitions against dealings with designated
Iranian individuals and entities." http://t.uani.com/1QFZXBa
IRNA
(Iran):
"Iranian Railways Company and South Korea's Hyundai -Rotem Company
signed a memorandum of understanding for provision of 150 railbuses
through finance credit lines. The MOU was signed by the Iranian Railway
Company's Deputy Head for Trains Fleet Babak Ahmadi, Hyundai -Rotem
Company's Railway Systems Deputy Ion Queen Choi, and Japanese Marubeni
Company's Managing Director Hisao Ikega. According to the agreement, the
150 railbuses will be manufactured based on finance credit acceptable to
the Central Bank of Iran and the Ministry of Economy which will be opened
by the Hyundai -Rotem Company. The Korean and Japanese companies have
agreed to manufacture the railbuses jointly with Iranian companies and
then sell them at a reasonable price to the Iranian Railway Company under
a rent-for-sale contract. The Hyundai-Rotem Company had already signed
the contract for joint manufacturing of another 150 railbuses with Iran's
IRICO and thus far 17 of them have been delivered to the Iranian Railways
Company and put into use in the country's railways network." http://t.uani.com/1OXAJfv
Reuters: "Indonesia's OPEC governor said
on Monday a deal was imminent for importing Iranian condensate and
liquefied petroleum gas, but not for crude oil. A delegation of
Indonesian oil officials will travel to Iran later this week to negotiate
a number of energy deals and there had been hopes of finalising a
short-term agreement for 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude
for a refinery in Central Java. Indonesia's OPEC governor Widhyawan
Prawiraatmadja said a crude import deal with Iran was unlikely for now
because Southeast Asia's largest economy needed sweet crude for its
refineries, not Iran's sour oil grades. 'We have limited demand for
crude,' he told reporters, adding Indonesia imports around 400,000 bpd of
crude, of which 125,000 bpd was sour crude from Saudi Arabia. Before
Indonesia can seal the import deal for Iranian LPG and condensates, the
government needed to work out how to transfer funds to Iran,
Prawiraatmadja said." http://t.uani.com/1W357Ld
Regional
Destabilization
Daily
Star (Lebanon):
"The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is using Lebanon as a military
operations room sending fighters all over the world, particularly to
Syria, Iraq and Yemen, Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk said Sunday, in
the latest revelations about Iran's meddling in the internal affairs of
regional states. He also vowed not to let Lebanon fall under Iranian
influence amid the ongoing fierce power struggle in the region between
the two rival regional powers: Saudi Arabia and Iran. 'The Iranian
Revolutionary Guard is using Lebanon as an external operations room for
training and sending fighters to all the world from Bosnia, Iraq, Yemen
and Syria,' Machnouk said in an interview with the Dubai-based Al-Arabiya
satellite channel. He said 'Arab negligence' of Lebanon over the past 30
years had led the country to fall under Syrian and Iranian influence.
'The decision to confront [Iran's influence] was taken only weeks ago,
while we have faced [Syrian domination of Lebanon] for tens of years,
offering martyrs. To the day, the serial of martyrs has not ended in
Lebanon,' Machnouk said. 'Nonetheless, we will prove that we are capable
of a peaceful and political confrontation [against Iran],' he said. 'We
will do what we can in order for Lebanon not to be a Persian thorn in the
Arabs' belly. Our options are peaceful and we will not allow to be
dragged into a military confrontation or sectarian strife.' Machnouk, a
leading figure in the Future Movement, said the Arab confrontation
against Iran's expanding influence in the region needs 'mobilization,
planning, preparations and consultations among all concerned political
forces.'" http://t.uani.com/1U7qDzw
Human
Rights
AP: "An Iranian court has sentenced
a well-known tycoon to death for corruption linked to oil sales during
the rule of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the judiciary spokesman
said Sunday. Babak Zanjani and two of his associates were sentenced to
death for 'money laundering,' among other charges, Gholamhossein Mohseni
Ejehi said in brief remarks broadcast on state TV. He did not identify
the two associates. Previous state media reports have said the three were
charged with forgery and fraud. 'The court has recognized the three
defendants as corruptors on earth and sentenced them to death,' said
Ejehi. 'Corruptors on earth' is an Islamic term referring to crimes that
are punishable by death because they have a major impact on society. The
verdict, which came after a nearly five-month trial, can be appealed. A
news website run by the judiciary identified the two associates as
British-Iranian businessman Mahdi Shams, who was detained in 2015, and
the other as Hamid Fallah Heravi, a retired businessman. Zanjani was
arrested in 2013 during a crackdown on alleged corruption during
Ahmadinejad's rule. Iran's Oil Ministry says Zanjani owes more than 2
billion euros ($2.25 billion) for oil sales he made on behalf of
Ahmadinejad's government... Iran has in the past executed other wealthy
individuals found guilty of similar charges. In 2014, Iran executed
billionaire businessman Mahafarid Amir Khosravi over corruption
charges." http://t.uani.com/1TmaCXq
Justice
For Iran: "33
years after the disappearance of a father and daughter, Iranian
authorities are still refusing to provide any information about their
fate or whereabouts. Facing this silence, Justice for Iran decided to
report the case to the Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary
Disappearances (WGEID) of the United Nations in a long overdue effort for
redress and accountability. In the recent years Raheleh Rahemipour, one
of the relatives of the victims, has been demanding justice for the
forced disappearance of her brother and his baby girl by staging protests
and sit-ins while holding a sign which reads: 'You killed my brother!
What did you do to his daughter?' In April 1984, Raheleh Rahemipour's new
born niece was forcefully abducted while in custody of Iran's Evin
prison." http://t.uani.com/1LLVuA6
Domestic
Politics
AFP: "President Hassan Rouhani
praised Monday the strategic role played in recent elections by Mohammad
Khatami, Iran's ex-president who is subject to a media ban, thanking him
in a speech aired live on state television. Rouhani's remarks, during a
visit to Yazd, the home town of Khatami, Iran's only reformist president,
prompted cheers from the crowd but the sound of their applause during the
broadcast was lowered several times. Iranian media are forbidden on the
orders of Tehran's prosecutor from publishing pictures of Khatami,
president between 1997 and 2005, or quoting his words, on account of his
support for the defeated reformist candidates in the disputed 2009
re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Regardless of the restrictions
Khatami was a guiding influence in the success of pro-Rouhani reformist
politicians in last month's elections which reduced conservative
dominance in Iran's parliament. He circumvented the ban and used YouTube
and the smartphone message sharing app Telegram to urge Iranians to back
reformists, also naming the group's candidates as representing a 'List of
Hope' for Iran. 'After the honourable leader, who had the main role in
mobilising people to the ballot boxes, all elites, elders, and in
particular the pride of this town, invited people in this election to
create a great epic,' Rouhani said, alluding to Khatami before naming him
outright. 'When I entered parliament those individuals whom you brave
people of Yazd province had sent to the parliament were shining flowers
and lights... and in that very parliament, from Ardakan, was my dear
brother Seyed Mohammad Khatami,' the president added. 'Heroic Iran shall
never forget its servants, those who worked for Iran's glory. They are,
today, regarded as the pride of the land and no one can silence their
name and their greatness.'" http://t.uani.com/1QZWpsR
AFP: "Iran's President Hassan
Rouhani said Sunday he was 'very pleased' voters backed moderate politicians
in elections and that he hoped cooperation with his government would soon
replace confrontation in parliament. At a press conference in Tehran,
Rouhani, considered a moderate in Iran's political system which also
encompasses factions of hardline conservatives and reformists, praised
the electorate for backing his allies at the ballot box in the February
26 polls. The 67-year-old president has faced opposition in parliament,
including on his landmark nuclear deal with world powers, and his officials
have also been shouted down when addressing lawmakers. 'I am very pleased
that mostly the moderate candidates made it to the parliament,' Rouhani
said. 'This means that the people of Iran have chosen moderation and
opened that path. This is a message from the people to all officials' of
the Islamic republic, he added, saying it paved the way for much brighter
prospects than in recent years... Although no single political grouping
won a majority in the 290-seat parliament, the recent conservative dominance
of the chamber was markedly curbed. Conservatives won 103 seats and a
pro-Rouhani coalition of moderates and reformists, dubbed the 'List of
Hope', won 95, with other seats going to Independents and minorities and
69 constituencies requiring a second ballot in April." http://t.uani.com/1TErsS3
AP: "Iranian authorities have
prevented former reformist President Mohammad Khatami from attending the
wedding party of an opposition leader's daughter. The opposition website
Kaleme said Saturday that security agents did not allow Khatami to leave
his house to attend the wedding party of the daughter of Mir Hossein
Mousavi based on a judicial order. Mousavi and his wife Zahra Rahnavard
have been under house arrest since early 2011 after leading massive
street rallies in the aftermath of the disputed 2009 election. The
website said the two were also banned from attending the wedding of their
daughter." http://t.uani.com/1X6NjyY
Foreign
Affairs
PressTV
(Iran): "Iran's
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has called on Muslims across the
globe to strengthen their unity against the Israeli occupation of
Palestinian lands. 'We as Muslims must put aside our differences and
within an organized framework take practical measures to [help] put an
end to all signs of occupation,' Zarif said on Sunday. The Iranian
foreign minister made the remarks while addressing the 5th Extraordinary
Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Summit on Palestinian issues in
the Indonesian capital, Jakarta. The top diplomat lashed out at Israel
for its 'expansionist plans' to change the demographic makeup of al-Quds
(Jerusalem) and its Judaization. As a step toward the full liberation of
Palestine, Zarif said, Muslim countries need to 'prevent the illegal
attempts by Israeli aggressors to change the status quo of the occupied
al-Quds.' He said 'Israel's continued and brutal occupation' of
Palestinian territories is a breach of 'the basic principles of
international law.' Elsewhere in his remarks, Zarif criticized the UN
Security Council (UNSC) for failing to take action over Israeli 'threat
against global peace and security.'" http://t.uani.com/1RwEk65
Opinion
& Analysis
UANI
Advisory Board Member Olli Heinonen in FDD: "The International Atomic
Energy Agency's most recent report on Iran's nuclear activities provides
insufficient details on important verification and monitoring issues. The
report does not list inventories of nuclear materials and equipment or
the status of key sites and facilities. Without detailed reporting, the
international community cannot be sure that Iran is upholding its
commitments under the nuclear deal. Over the longer term, this will
hamper efforts to reach a 'broader conclusion' that all nuclear material
and activities are accounted for and for peaceful use." http://t.uani.com/1QxF4dE
Dennis
Ross in Politico: "Iranians
may want to reform and open up economically, but what's become clearer
since the nuclear deal was signed is that culturally and socially almost
nothing has changed. Nor are these, or Iran's broader policies, likely to
anytime soon. The supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, continues to rail against
'American influence' and engages in a war of words with the Saudis - and
backs the aggressive use of Hezbollah and other Shiite militias to extend
Iran's reach throughout the region. It is Qassem Soleimani, the leader of
the IRGC Qods Force, not the more moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, who
shapes and implements Iran's policies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen,
and the sudden granting of $7,000 to every Palestinian 'martyr.' True,
the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action may have strengthened Rouhani
politically - or at least made him more popular with the Iranian public.
Perhaps, that will mean something over time. For now, however, the key
centers of power in Iran have not been weakened. If we truly want to see
Rouhani and the more pragmatic constituency in Iran strengthened over
time, we need to raise the costs to Iran for its destabilizing and
threatening policies in the region - we need to show that what Solemani
is doing around the region is costing Iran and blunting its future
development. Ironically, the recent elections offer more evidence of the
limits of change in Iran. Weeks before the elections for the parliament
and the Assembly of Experts, the Guidance Council - a body of 12 that
determines who can be candidates - excluded nearly all those identified
as reformers and moderates. Reports at the time indicated that out of 760
reformers who had registered to run in the city of Tehran only four were
permitted to stand as candidates for parliament; in all of Iran, out of
3,000 who registered, fewer than 300 were allowed to run for Iran's
legislative body. And, yet when the parliamentary elections were held,
the big story was that 'the moderates had made big gains in the
elections.' How can one square these seemingly contradictory reports and
the outcome of the elections? The most likely answer may be that
Iranians, especially the middle-class voters, were voting against rather
than for candidates. Since so many of the reformist or moderate
candidates were disqualified, they chose to vote against those they knew
to be conservative opponents of Rouhani's nuclear deal and his efforts to
improve the economy and open Iran to the outside world. Iranians voted to
continue those efforts. They voted against the hard-line candidates who
favor more restrictions on social liberties internally and confrontation
externally. But that should come as no surprise - every time Iranians
have had a chance to express themselves politically, that is the way they
vote. Consider who has actually won the presidential elections since
1996; even Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's victory in 2005 may not be an exception
to the rule as he ran as a populist against corruption and privilege -
and in 2009, the real winner, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, was denied his
victory. If Iranians could vote for genuine reform, they would do so;
unfortunately, for the Iranian public, opening up the political system,
liberalizing social strictures, limiting the power of the mullahs and the
Revolutionary Guard, enhancing the rule of law and stopping aggressive
and costly support for Shiite militias in the region are never on the
ballot... Going forward, if we want to see more favorable change within
Iran and less aggressive policies in the region, we need to apply the
same logic we employed to bring the Iranians to the negotiating table on
the nuclear issue: Make the Iranians pay a high price for bad behaviors
even as we offer them a way out - a pathway where an Iran that does not
employ terror, use the Shiite militias to subvert and coerce its
neighbors, reject Arab-Israeli peace and demand regional dominance is an
Iran that can achieve economic success, gain respect and play a role in
the security architecture of the region. But for that to happen, the
price for what the Revolutionary Guard is doing in the region must be
clear and unmistakable. Pragmatists and reformers won't be empowered, and
the nuclear deal may not even be kept, if Solemani's Qods Forces can
expand Iranian influence and pay no price for doing it." http://t.uani.com/1TEutl4
Mshari Al
Thaydi in Al Arabiya:
"A political and legal decisiveness on the part of the Arab world is
besieging the Lebanese Hezbollah party, which is affiliated to the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards. There is a wall being built which is
getting stiffer and higher with every passing minute. Hours after the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries declared Hezbollah, its
branches, affiliates and leaders as 'terrorist group' - without
separating the military and political wings like the Europeans, the
Council of Arab interior ministers agreed with the decision. Lebanon and
Iraq, however, were not party to this decision. These Gulf and Arab
measures are not going to end at this point. The Organization of Islamic
Cooperation (OIC) must also take a decision so that any subsequent
international effort in this direction stands on solid grounds.
Hezbollah's was rightly described during the Arab interior ministers'
statement in Tunisia as an entity that is 'destabilizing the Arab
region.' It is adept at establishing terror networks and outlawed gangs,
diffusing toxic propaganda and training murderers all over the Arab
world. Probably its worst is yet to come. It is just that the mask has
now fallen off, revealing the threat posed by Iran to the security of the
Arab world and many other countries around the Islamic world. Hezbollah's
reaction to the announcement was expected to be similar to that of its
allies. Through its parliamentary bloc - The Loyalty to the Resistance
Bloc - it targeted Saudi Arabia even though the decision was taken by the
entire GCC. It was alleged that the GCC's decision is a starting point
for the development of Saudi-Israeli relations. The Palestinian Islamic
Jihad movement denounced the decision to ban Hezbollah. In its political
council statement, Yemen's Houthis said the decision is 'reckless and
serves the interests of the angry Zionist entity and its tools in the
region.' 'Lebanon's Hezbollah is the vanguard of resistance against the
Zionist regime (Israel) and Iran is proud of the group,' Iranian state TV
quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian as saying. Gulf
countries had considered charging Hezbollah with terrorism in 2013 but a
consensus could not be developed. However, latest developments show that
Gulf citizens, including Kuwaitis, have started to sense the threat
Hezbollah poses to regional security. The Arab problem with Hezbollah is
that it is a source of military training and permanent internal strife,
especially with its attempts to monopolize Shiite representation across
borders. Hezbollah is now under Arab siege. Hassan Nasrallah's numerous
speeches are of no use in this situation. The matter at hand is more
serious than mere speeches." http://t.uani.com/1U7pAPU
Emanuele
Ottolenghi in The Hill: "In December, Congress passed the Visa Waiver Program
Improvement and Terrorist Travel Prevention Act. The legislation created
exceptions to the Visa Waiver Program (VWP), including for dual citizens
of Iran and of VWP countries, and met stiff resistance from Europe and
Iran. As a result, the Obama administration is trying to reverse these
measures through presidential waivers. But instead of trying to placate
its critics, the administration should double down. Washington should
threaten further penalties, especially against those Visa Waiver
countries offering citizenship-by-investment programs (CIPs), whose
fast-track to citizenship undermines VWP security standards. There are
compelling reasons for this approach. Since 2006, as sanctions made it
harder for Iranian procurement agents to operate, Iranian middlemen have
sought to acquire genuine foreign passports for sanctions evasion. CIPs
became an Iranian backdoor to circumvent export controls and conduct
illicit procurement abroad, including in the U.S. For years, Iran's
preferred route to procurement in the United States was Canada's federal
permanent residency program. But in May 2012, Canadian authorities
charged Ziad El-Shurafa, a partner at an immigration consultancy named
Canada 2000 Immigration Services Inc., and two business associates with
defrauding immigration authorities. They were found to have helped
residency applicants deceive authorities by pretending to already be in
country while never having actually moved to Canada. Such abuse led
Ottawa to shut down the program in 2014. Once that door was shut, Iranian
agents found another easy venue to acquire a second nationality. Five
Caribbean countries have established CIPs, and their passports can be
obtained speedily - usually with no residency requirements or even
presence in the country - and with minimal due diligence. Iranian
nationals have sought to exploit these programs to facilitate
sanctions-evasion schemes for years. In 2014, the U.S. Treasury's
Financial Crimes Enforcement Network issued an advisory to alert
financial institutions about the exploitation of St. Kitts and Nevis's
CIP by foreign nationals involved in illicit financial activity. The
advisory made explicit reference to Iranian nationals who use secondary
citizenship to evade sanctions. The Treasury has since sanctioned four
Iranian dual nationals of Caribbean nations. These include Houshang
Farsoudeh, Houshang Hosseinpour and Pourya Nayebi - three businessmen who
facilitated fraudulent transactions on behalf of sanctioned Iranian
entities through a financial institution they controlled in the Republic
of Georgia. All three were delisted in January as part of last summer's
nuclear deal and are already reconstituting their business network... The
proliferation of easy-to-obtain citizenship options, including among Visa
Waiver countries, justifies the concerns of Congress over abuse by
Iranian dual nationals. Washington must not cave in to European pressure
over the Visa Waiver Program - it should double down." http://t.uani.com/1R37dNc
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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