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CNN: "The Obama administration is preparing to
publicly attribute a 2013 cyber attack against a New York dam to
Iranian hackers, according to U.S. officials familiar with the
investigation. The Justice Department has prepared an indictment
against people thought to be behind the attack, according to the
officials. An announcement could come in the next week. The intrusion
at the Bowman Avenue Dam, around 30 miles north of New York City in
suburban Rye Brook, New York, isn't considered sophisticated -- the hackers
managed only to get access to some back office systems, not the
operational systems of the dam, U.S. officials say. U.S. investigators
quickly determined the attack was carried out by hackers working for
the Iranian government... The public attribution of the dam attack is
part of a U.S. strategy shift in recent years to publicly 'name and
shame' countries and, if possible, people behind the proliferation of
cyber intrusions targeting U.S. companies and government networks...
U.S. officials say the Rye attack occurred at a time that Iranian
hackers also were conducting similar probing attacks on U.S. financial
institutions. Also at the time, the U.S. and Iran were conducting talks
over the Iranian nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/1SFHOIB
NYT: "Executions in Iran surged to
nearly 1,000 in 2015, a United Nations investigator said on Thursday,
the highest level in more than a quarter-century. The investigator,
Ahmed Shaheed, the special rapporteur for human rights in Iran, said in
a report to the organization's Human Rights Council that at least 966
people were put to death in the country last year, roughly double the
number executed in 2010 and 10 times as many as were executed in 2005.
Iran has been one of the world's leading users of the death penalty,
along with China and Saudi Arabia. According to annual figures on
capital punishment compiled by Amnesty International, the 2015 figure
for Iran is the highest since 1989, when more than 1,500 people were
executed. Most executions in Iran are by hanging, with a majority of
the condemned having been convicted of drug-related offenses. Mr.
Shaheed's report, presented at the Human Rights Council's meeting in
Geneva, came less than two months after Amnesty International said Iran
was a leading executioner of juvenile offenders, despite improved legal
protections for children in the country and Tehran's longstanding
pledge to abolish the death penalty for convicts younger than 18.
Amnesty said more than 160 condemned Iranian juveniles were on death
row. Month-by-month figures in Mr. Shaheed's report showed that
executions increased fairly steadily in the first half of 2015,
reaching 136 in June - more than four per day - which the investigator
called 'especially alarming.' Mr. Shaheed also criticized Iran for what
he described as the country's 'widening crackdown on freedom of
expression and opinion' last year, despite pledges by President Hassan
Rouhani to relax constraints. While Mr. Shaheed welcomed the release of
Jason Rezaian, a Washington Post reporter freed in January after a year
and a half in prison, he said hundreds of Iranian journalists, bloggers
and activists were confined in prison and detention facilities." http://t.uani.com/1QRt6JL
WT: "Osama bin Laden relied on
Iran as a conduit to replenish his terrorist army with money and
fighters as he worked to keep al Qaeda in the killing business during
his decade in hiding. Details on the Iran-bin Laden strategic link come
from the terrorist leader himself, who handwrote a steady stream of
letters from various hideouts, including the compound in Abbottabad,
Pakistan, where Navy SEALs killed him in May 2011. The SEALs seized
reams of documents, and the government released a second declassified
batch this month. It has been known that Iran allowed al Qaeda fighters
to travel through its territory from the tribal areas of Pakistan to
Iraq, where the parent terrorist group founded al Qaeda in Iraq. Iran
also gave safe haven, sometimes in the form of accommodations, to al
Qaeda leaders and bin Laden family members. The bin Laden letters show
the relationship ran deeper. While not an operational alliance, it was
a logistical one. It underscores the reality that both Sunni Muslim al
Qaeda and the Shiite Iranian regime shared one overriding emotion: an
intense hatred of the United States. Iran itself, and through
surrogates such as Hezbollah, has been responsible for the killings of
hundreds of Americans. It trained Iraqi Shiites in how to bomb and
shell U.S. military personnel in Iraq. In that vein, Iran was an ally
of al Qaeda in Iraq, which was targeting the same personnel. In a 2007
letter to a terrorist named 'Karim' at a time of intense fighting in
Iraq, bin Laden warned his ally not to begin attacking Iran in
retaliation for Tehran's arming and training of Iraqi Shiites. 'You did
not consult with us on that serious issue that affects the general
welfare of all of us,' bin Laden admonished Karim, who had made public
threats. 'We expected you would consult with us for these important
matters, for as you are aware, Iran is our main artery for funds,
personnel, and communication, as well as the matter of hostages.' That
disclosure, that Iran is a 'main' logistics channel, would indicate
that Tehran was either actively supporting al Qaeda in Pakistan's
tribal regions or tacitly letting the flow go through its territory.
Why else would bin Laden not want to agitate Tehran? The manpower flow
through Iran appears to have continued for years... 'It was sort of a
nonaggression pact between Iran and al Qaeda,' said Kenneth Katzman, a
Middle East scholar at the Congressional Research Service. 'A lot of
this was tactical. This was part of Iran's way of saying, 'We're not
going to make trouble for your people, and in return, you don't make
trouble for us.'' A senior U.S. intelligence official told The
Washington Times that Karim was Abu Ayyub al-Masri, who led al Qaeda in
Iraq in 2007. Al-Masri was killed in April 2010 by a U.S.-Iraq raid. A
month later, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi assumed command of what became the
Islamic State of Iraq. He fled for civil war-torn Syria and founded
what is today the Islamic State terrorist army that controls sections
of both countries." http://t.uani.com/1pktwSk
Nuclear
Program & Agreement
Daily
Signal: "The
Obama administration's careful reaction to Iran's latest round of
ballistic missile tests showcases the difficult balance the United
States and its allies face in deciding how forcefully to push back,
without undermining last summer's nuclear deal... Former Obama
administration officials who were involved with engaging Iran on its
nuclear program tell The Daily Signal that the U.S. should act more
forcefully now. 'The question is how we respond because we see missile
development as a threat to U.S. allies and U.S. forces in the region,'
said Gary Samore, President Barack Obama's former chief adviser on nuclear
policy. 'The [previous] sanctions on individuals and groups are pretty
hollow. There is a whole range of things I think we should do, and even
if these tests do not technically violate the nuclear agreement, we are
not inhibited in any way and we and our allies are perfectly free to do
those things.' Samore called on the U.S. to continue to work with
Israel and allies in the Gulf Cooperation Council to develop its own
missile defense systems to mitigate the Iranian threat. He said the
most likely action will be for the U.S. to act unilaterally to sanction
more Iranian individuals and business involved with the missile
program. More powerful sanctions that could originate from the U.N.
Security Council would likely be blocked by members China and Russia,
Samore said... Samore said he worries more about 'concessions' he said
the Obama administration made on the nuclear deal itself, including the
fact that the restrictions on Iran's nuclear program expire after 10 or
15 years. 'I don't care as much about the ballistic issue loophole, as
much as the areas where we made concessions in the nuclear area to get
a deal,' Samore said... What happens after a new president is elected,
however, remains an open question, Samore said. 'The next
administration may not feel so committed to upholding the spirit of the
agreement,' Samore said. 'If the Iranians continue to misbehave, which
they will, I can imagine the next administration looking to re-impose
economic sanctions that were lifted. Then, the Iranians have to decide
if they honor the agreement or not. You can imagine a dynamic that
leads to the collapse of the deal next year.'" http://t.uani.com/1pcSTor
Reuters: "United Nations
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has reacted to Iran's recent ballistic
missile tests by urging Tehran to act with moderation and restraint and
to avoid increasing regional tensions, U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric
said on Thursday. 'In the current political atmosphere in the Middle
East region, and so soon after the positive news of the lifting of
sanctions against Iran, the secretary-general calls ... Iran to act
with moderation, caution and the good sense not to increase tensions
through hasty actions,' Dujarric told reporters. A series of ballistic
missile tests this week conducted by Iran's Revolutionary Guard units
drew international concern. The United States, France and other
countries said that if confirmed, of launches nuclear-capable ballistic
missiles would be a violation of a U.N. Security Council resolution.
Dujarric noted that it is up to the 15-nation council to examine issues
related to resolution 2231, which calls upon Iran 'not to undertake any
activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of
delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic
missile technology.'" http://t.uani.com/1QMvCVd
IRNA
(Iran): "Iran's
ambassador to IAEA on Wednesday criticized IAEA Director-General Yukiya
Amano for demanding detailed report from Iran about implementation of
JCPOA. He said that the demand contradicts the context of the UN
Security Council Resolution 2331. Reza Najafi made the comments in an
official letter addressed to the UN nuclear watchdog's board of
governors." http://t.uani.com/225TgD6
U.S.-Iran
Relations
Fars (Iran): "Tehran's provisional Friday
Prayers Leader Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani called on Iranian
parliamentarians to keep vigilant against the plots hatched by the US
officials to influence and penetrate into the country's decision-making
bodies through the recent nuclear agreement between Tehran and the
world powers. Addressing a large and fervent congregation of the people
on Tehran University campus on Friday, Ayatollah Emami Kashani said,
'As Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali
Khamenei has always said we should keep vigilant in a bid not to allow
the enemy's penetration.' He underlined that the enemy has focused on
penetrations to make the country insecure in political, economic and
military fields. The senior Iranian cleric reiterated that the
country's parliamentarians should watch out the western countries'
penetration efforts in Iran's key sectors." http://t.uani.com/1TS8QOu
Fars
(Iran): "Iran
has decided to call its own version of the US Sentinel spy drone RQ-170
'Simorgh' (Phoenix), Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps
Aerospace Force Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said. In an
interview with the state TV, Hajizadeh said the IRGC named its version
of the US drone RQ-170 - that was downed and remanufactured through
reverse engineering four years ago - 'Simorgh' (Phoenix), an Iranian
benevolent, mythical flying creature. The manufacture of the Iranian
drone based on the US RQ-170 spying drone, which was captured in 2011
by the IRGC Aerospace Force was a major blow to the US government. The
Iranian version of the RQ-170 drone was manufactured through reverse
engineering of the US drone, which was tracked and hunted down in Iran
late in 2011, and has been equipped by the IRGC with bombing
capability. Back in October 2013, Hajizadeh said Iran moved as much as
35 years ahead in building drone engines by reverse engineering of the
US drone." http://t.uani.com/1RUMRTk
Sanctions
Enforcement
JPost: "State Senator Thomas Croci
and Assemblywoman Nily Rozic called this week for the immediate passage
of a legislation they drafted to prevent the repeal of the existing
Iran Divestment Act, which includes sanctions against the financial and
energy sectors of the Islamic Republic of Iran. 'This bill is about
ensuring New York State can exercise its legal authority in prohibiting
companies from doing business in Iran's energy sector,' Nily Rozic, the
first Israeli-born member elected to the State Legislature, said. 'In
keeping existing sanctions against Iran, we are sending a strong
message that the State will not stand for any threat against the
security of its citizens and disruption of global stability.' Three
years ago, the state enacted legislation requiring the State Office of
General Services to identify persons or entities that invest more than
$20 million in goods, services or credit in the Iranian energy sector.
Senator Croci said that in essence, the new bill aims to increase the
state's citizens' protection by strengthening its alliance with ally
countries." http://t.uani.com/1Rc7dUX
Star
Tribune:
"Minnesota's pension funds are dumping millions of dollars in
stock they invested with Russian oil and gas giants vying for business
in Iran. A seven-year-old state law requires the sell-off, revealing
how states like Minnesota must continue pushing back against Iran's
government even after President Obama and Western allies agreed to lift
economic sanctions in exchange for Iran curbing its nuclear program.
The State Board of Investment's largest target is Lukoil. The board is
scheduled to sell $1.3 million of stock in Russia's second-biggest oil
producer this year as the company looks to renew exploration in Iran.
The board flagged Lukoil nearly a year and a half ago for possible ties
to Iran, a designation that Lukoil contested to Minnesota investment
officials. The company wrote to the board that it made its final sale
of gasoline to Iran in 2010, and wound down its business there that
same year. But as Iran opens its borders for business again -
particularly to the energy industry - Lukoil is one of many foreign
companies in talks to develop oil there as it faces declining reserves
in Russia. Lukoil has not contested Minnesota's final decision to sell
off 39,175 shares of stock: half by the end of March, and the rest by
October. The state last year sold half its holdings in Gazprom for
$830,039, and is scheduled to sell the rest by June. The Russian
company is looking to expand Iran's natural gas industry." http://t.uani.com/1P3U92n
Business
Risk
Reuters: "Iran needs full access to
the international banking system, the chief of staff to President
Hassan Rouhani said on Thursday, adding that London has an important
role to play following the lifting of sanctions. Mohammad Nahavandian
also said Iran must regain its share of the global oil market before it
would participate in any agreement among oil producing countries to
restrict supply. International sanctions against Iran, including
banking restrictions, ended in January under a deal with world powers
in which Tehran agreed to curb its nuclear program. But Nahavandian,
speaking at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said there
should be greater clarity about the application of secondary U.S.
financial sanctions to allow non-U.S. banks to conduct business freely
with Iran. 'We need to see facilitation of banking relations as soon as
possible and as complete as possible, and London can do that,' he said.
U.S. measures still in place have left non-U.S. banks and insurers wary
of processing transactions with Iran. 'Big banks are still worried
about primary sanctions from the United States, I think they have to
come with a very clear interpretation drawing the line between primary
sanctions and secondary sanctions,' he said. 'Non-U.S. banks should not
be limited in any kind of banking transactions with Iranian
banks.'" http://t.uani.com/1pcQVV9
Press
TV (Iran): "Iran
on Tuesday indicated frustration with India's failure to settle debts
remaining from previous purchases of oil from Tehran. Iran's First Vice
President Es'haq Jahangiri said India has announced that its banks are
too afraid from US punitive actions to proceed with paying Iran's dues
while many global financial institutions have already resumed working
with Iran after the removal of the sanctions. 'Even though the
sanctions have been lifted, we have not been able to retrieve our cash
from India,' said Iran's First Vice President Es'haq Jahangiri.
'India's officials say the country's banks are afraid of the US.'
Jahangiri's comments follow indications that recently appeared in
Indian media that suggested Tehran and New Delhi have hit a roadblock
over settling some $6 billion in oil dues. India's Business Standard
reported on Sunday that Gholamali Kamyab, the vice governor of the
Central Bank of Iran (CBI), will travel to India later this month to
discuss differences with officials in New Delhi over a mechanism to get
Iran's oil money back from the country. The difference reportedly
involves the foreign exchange rate for the sum that India owes
Iran." http://t.uani.com/1pBsgdw
Bloomberg: "The increase in Iran's oil
exports after the lifting of sanctions has been 'more modest' than the
country intended, according to the International Energy Agency. Iran
increased oil output by 300,000 barrels a day this year to a four-year
high of 3.2 million a day in February, the Paris-based agency said.
That's less than the 400,000 barrel-a-day increase Iran itself has
reported. Even after sanctions were eased following the completion of a
nuclear deal, Iran still faces obstacles to selling crude to Europe,
one of its main export markets before the trade restrictions were
imposed in 2012. 'Iran's return to the market has been less dramatic
than the Iranians said it would be,' the IEA said in its monthly report
Friday. 'Progress in ramping up crude sales has been somewhat slowed by
the wariness of banks and ship owners to do business with Iran.' The
nation's crude exports in February rose to above 1.4 million barrels a
day, compared with about 1.15 million just before sanctions were eased,
the IEA said. Preliminary data suggest shipments in March will expand
by a further 150,000 barrels a day, it said. Before additional
sanctions were imposed in 2012, Iran was exporting about 2.2 million
barrels a day, with Europe accounting for about 600,000 barrels." http://t.uani.com/1RDOG4a
Sanctions
Relief
Shana
(Iran):
"President Middle East and North Africa of Total Exploration and
Production Stephane Michel said the French energy giant is committed to
cooperation with Iran and is ready to lift the barriers on the way.
'France was the first country to sign a oil deal with Iran after
removal of sanctions,' he told Shana following a meeting with Iranian
Deputy Petroleum Minister for International Affairs and Commerce
Amir-Hossein Zamani-Nia here on Tuesday. 'There are massive capacities
for bilateral cooperation and Total is ready to continue its
negotiations with Iran based on the agreements reached between the two
sides,' he added. He said the snap back possibility of sanctions is an
important issue which has become a source of concern for investors in
Iran. 'Therefore, the contracts have to be drafted in a way that in the
snap back option will not raise the risk of companies.'" http://t.uani.com/1UYiRIU
Press
TV (Iran):
"Germany's Lufthansa aviation giant is set to establish a repair
and maintenance service unit in Iran. The company is reported to
have sealed a deal with Iran Air to the same effect which also
envisages cooperation in several other key areas. The deal was signed
when a group from Lufthansa visited Tehran on Wednesday, the media reported.
Based on it, Iran Air and Lufthansa work closely over five fields such
as technical issues, commercial activities, aviation IT systems,
navigation mechanisms and restricting. The technical issues over which
the two will cooperate include the maintenance and repairing planes and
the commercial activities will include the transfer of passengers and
cargos, the media have quoted a statement by Iran's Ministry of Road
and Urban Development." http://t.uani.com/1LWD9QU
Human
Rights
ICHRI: "Issa Saharkhiz, imprisoned
reformist journalist and former political prisoner, was hospitalized on
March 9, 2016 due to life-threatening health deterioration from
successive hunger strikes. 'My father has lost more than 20 kilograms.
My family says he looks like someone entirely different. It is natural
for anyone to develop severe problems and weight loss after some time
on hunger strike,' Saharkhiz's son, Mehdi Saharkhiz, told the
International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran. Issa Saharkhiz
described the inhumane conditions he has suffered since his November 1,
2015 arrest in a letter from prison published on March 8. 'I was often
locked up in a solitary cell which is a form of 'white torture'
[psychological and mental torture]. Even when someone else shared a
cell with me, it was just to look after me, as, due to various reasons
and different illnesses, I have repeatedly fallen down in the room, the
bathrooms, the courtyard, during fresh air breaks, etc., due to a
severe drop in my blood pressure and poor blood circulation to my
brain,' he wrote." http://t.uani.com/1Wesod9
ICHRI: "Fifty high school students
were married in a mass ceremony in the Iranian city of Parsian,
according to local news reports. But city officials have been
downplaying the event and distancing themselves from the idea of
encouraging child marriage. The 'celebration' was first mentioned by
the chairperson of the Wedding Committee in Parsian's Women's Affair
Department. Azar Khosravani said the event was aimed at 'facilitating
marriage according to Iranian and Islamic norms and culture,' according
to the Vaghaye daily. An employee of Parsian's education department
claimed to the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran that the
event was only a gathering of married students and the department had
no involvement in organizing it. But education officials who support
the practice of marriage at a young age had attended the ceremony held
at the governor's office in late February. The official, who asked to
remain anonymous, admitted to the Campaign that marriage among high
school students was a 'serious problem' throughout Hormozgan province
located in southern Iran. News of the mass marriage ceremony raised
concerns that local officials were directly or indirectly promoting
child marriage." http://t.uani.com/1Ul1ZeS
IranWire: "Farinaz Lari became the
first Iranian woman to ever win world kickboxing championships, first
in 2011, and then in 2013. But in 2015, Iran's Kickboxing Association
informed her she would not be allowed to attend to the world
championship in Spain, which took place from November 3 to November 8,
2015. Lari has lived in Canada since 2010, and became a Canadian
citizen a few years later. Because her contract with the Iranian
women's team had come to an end in 2013, when she became a Canadian
citizen, she took steps to join Canada's national women's kickboxing
team. But soon she discovered that she needed a letter from Iran's
Kickboxing Association to confirm it was fine with her decision to play
for Canada. 'I called them, but they lied to me. They told me, due to
lack of loyalty, I would face suspension for two years. I had already
been suspended between 2013 to 2015. But when I told this story to the
president of the Canada Kickboxing Federation, I discovered there is no
such a rule. They just made it up to sabotage my career.' Lari says
2015 was her 'worst year' because she finally recognized the extent to
which the Iranian Kickboxing Association undervalued and dismissed the
women's team. 'There were two important championships in 2015, the
Asian and the world championships. Iran's Kickboxing Association
contacted me to play for them, but I refused. I didn't want to play for
Iran any more - they care about the men's team, and not at all about
the women's. Compared to some men in the team, I achieved more success,
but I never felt respected or appreciated.'" http://t.uani.com/1LWB1IV
Domestic
Politics
Al-Monitor: "Iran's Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met for the last time with the outgoing members
of the Assembly of Experts before the winners of the Feb. 26 elections
take office. Missing from the next meeting will be two of the country's
most hard-line clerics, chairman Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi and Ayatollah
Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi. In his address to the assembly, Khamenei
called their departure 'a loss' and stressed that their losing the
election does not 'harm their reputation in any way.' Perhaps no one in
the next assembly will be more relieved by their absence than Ayatollah
Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Rafsanjani lost the last election for the
chairmanship to Yazdi. Meanwhile, Mesbah-Yazdi and the hard-line
political group he leads, the Endurance Front, are some of Rafsanjani's
harshest critics. That Khamenei would mention these two individuals by
name and lament their absence suggests that should Rafsanjani seek to
take back the chairmanship in the assembly, he may find it no easy
task... Khamenei also addressed one of the more controversial aspects
of the elections: the disqualification by the Guardian Council of
approximately half of the 12,000 candidates who registered to run,
including many Reformists. Khamenei defended the Guardian Council and
said it did its work with 'seriousness,' and if there was a problem, it
had to do with laws that should be reformed. Khamenei added, 'Reviewing
the qualifications of 12,000 candidates in 20 days is a legal problem
and needs to be resolved, [but] the Guardian Council must not be
attacked because of this legal problem.' He said that any attack on the
Guardian Council is 'un-Islamic, illegal, anti-religious and
anti-revolutionary.'" http://t.uani.com/1nCD3CC
RFE/RL: "Iran's Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei says that, in choosing his successor, the Assembly of Experts
should remain 'revolutionary' and take an uncompromising stance. 'The
duty of the Assembly of Experts is to remain revolutionary, think
revolutionary, and act revolutionary,' Khamenei was quoted as saying by
Iranian domestic media. Khamenei made the comments on March 10 in a
meeting with members of the assembly that is tasked with selecting the
country's supreme leader should Khamenei die or become incapacitated.
The Iranian leader praised the relatively high turnout in the February
26 vote for the parliament and the Assembly of Experts that saw gains
for the moderate allies of Iran's President Hassan Rohani. 'Elections
were healthy ... exactly the opposite of what our enemies have claimed
over the years,' Khamenei said." http://t.uani.com/21moIaK
Opinion
& Analysis
Elliott
Abrams in CFR:
"Last year's Iran nuclear agreement was sold with several powerful
arguments, and among the most important were these: that the agreement
would strengthen Iranian 'moderates' and thus Iran's external conduct,
and that it would allow us unparalleled insight into Iran's nuclear
program. Both are now proving to be untrue, but the handling of the two
differs. The 'moderation' argument is being proved wrong but the
evidence is simply being denied. The 'knowledge' argument is being
proved wrong but the fact is being met with silence. Let's review the bidding.
The idea that the nuclear agreement was a reward for Iran's 'moderates'
and would strengthen them is a key tenet of the defense of the
agreement. If Iran remains the bellicose and repressive theocracy of
today when the agreement ends and Iran is free to build nukes without
limits, we have entered a dangerous bargain. It is critical that Iran
change, so defenders of the agreement adduce evidence that it has. And
the new evidence is Iran's recent elections. Those elections were a
great victory for 'moderates' and hard-liners, it is said, and they
help to prove that the nuclear deal was wise. The problem here is that
those elections were anything but a victory for Iran's reformers. As
Mehdi Khalaji wrote about the Assembly of Experts election, 'if one understands
'reformist' as a political figure who emerged during the reform
movement of the late 1990s and is associated with the parties and
groups created at that time, then neither the candidates on the
'reformist' list nor the winners of Tehran's sixteen assembly seats can
credibly be called by that name.' To take one of the examples Khalaji
cites, Mahmoud Alavi ran on what has been called a reformist ticket but
he 'is the current intelligence minister, and Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei appointed him as head of the military's Ideological-Political
Organization from 2000 to 2009.' Khalaji concludes that 'no new
prominent reformists won seats, and the proportion of hardliners
remained the same.' Ray Takeyh and Reuel Gerecht draw a stark
conclusion: this year's elections 'spelled the end of Iran's
once-vivacious reform movement....' which has simply been crushed by
the regime. 'The electoral cycle began with the usual mass
disqualification of reformers and independent-minded politicians,' they
remind us. I'd cite another fact: that reformers of past election
years, presidential candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi
Karoubi, have remained under house arrest for five years now, during
the entire Rouhani presidency, demonstrating the true fate of reformers
of even a mild variety. What's the point of the 'reformist' charade? As
Takeyh and Gerecht note, 'Foreigners don't have to confess that they
are investing in an increasingly conservative and increasingly strong
theocracy; rather, they are aiding moderates at the expense of
hardliners.' But this charade has in fact worked well, producing
headline after headline in the Western media about 'reformist'
victories. You can fool most of the people some of the time, or at
least most of the people who have a strong desire to be fooled-because
they wish to protect the nuclear deal and its authors. Iran's conduct
certainly suggests radicalization rather than moderation, and the past
weeks have seen repeated ballistic missile tests. Ballistic missiles
are not built and perfected in order to carry 500 pound 'dumb' bombs;
they are used to carry nuclear weapons. So Iran's continued work on
them suggests that it has never given up its nuclear ambitions, not
even briefly for the sake of appearances. The American response has
been anemic, even pathetic; we threaten to raise the issue at the
United Nations. Two missiles were test-fired today, with the phrase
'Israel must be wide out' written on them. These tests violate UN
Security Council resolutions, but the American reaction is cautious: a
speech, a debate in New York, perhaps some sanctions, but nothing that
could possibly lead Iran to undo the nuclear deal. Because Iran knows
that this will be the Obama administration's reaction, expect more and
more ballistic missile tests. Expect more conduct like the
interception, capture, and humiliation of American sailors in the Gulf.
Expect more Iranian military action throughout the region. Some
moderation." http://t.uani.com/1Rc8nQd
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear
Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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