Iraq’s biggest dam is at risk of a catastrophic failure which could put 1.5million at risk, experts have warned.
The
Mosul hydro-electric dam is built on soil which erodes when exposed to
water and needs to be injected with grout to keep it stable.
But
essential repairs stopped when it was captured by Islamic State in
August 2014 and have not resumed despite being retaken by Iraqi forces
just two weeks later.
A man carries out strengthening work at the Mosul Dam in Iraq, which is at risk of collapsing due to an unstable foundation
Disaster: A map showing the areas of Iraq which are likely to flood should the Mosul Dam collapse
Engineers
fear that it could crack, unleashing a tidal wave of water up to 65
feet (20 metres) high coursing downstream to the city of Mosul and then
on to Baghdad.
Now both Iraqi and US authorities have issued the strongest warnings to date about the safety of the dam.
The US embassy in Iraq issued a statement saying: 'We have no specific information that indicates when a breach might occur.
'But
out of an abundance of caution, we would like to underscore that prompt
evacuation offers the most effective tool to save lives of the hundreds
of thousands of Iraqis living in the most dangerous part of the flood
path in the event of a breach.'
The
embassy also said in the event that there is a breach of the water,
500,000 to 1.5million Iraqis living along the Tigris River may not
survive.
They added that people in both Mosul and Tikrit would have to move up to four miles away from the riverbank to reach safety.
Kurdish Peshmegra forces guard the dam, which is in an area close to controlled by ISIS fighters
Both Iraqi and US authorities have issued the strongest warnings to date about the safety of the dam
Residents
living further downstream in Samarra, where the flood wave could
overwhelm a smaller dam and the water would spread out, would in some
cases have to flee as far as 10 miles.
A contingency plan said large parts of Baghdad would also be flooded, including the international airport.
It
pointed out that many areas most affected by the flood wave are either
controlled by ISIS or contested, making a state-directed evacuation
unlikely.
'Some
evacuees may not have freedom of movement sufficient to escape,' it
said, adding that the sick, disabled and elderly could end up being left
behind.
The
study said the disaster could shut down the entire Iraqi electricity
grid, durably damage much of the country's best farmland and leave the
capital flooded for weeks.
Italian
firm Trevi has been selected to carry out crucial repair work on the
Mosul Dam, which is currently protected by Kurdish Peshmerga forces.
The
Iraqi government has consistently sought to play down the danger posed
by the Mosul Dam, but the US has been alarmed by the potential for
disaster.
The Mosul project was beset by problems from the very start as it was built on a bed of highly soluble gysum.
There
were even problems during its construction in 1984. But engineers
devised a plan to inject grout into the structure to stabilise it.
The dam is currently protected by the Kurdish Peshmerga.
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