Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Eye on Iran: McConnell Tees Up Iran Sanctions Extension


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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is fast-tracking an extension of key Iran sanctions as the Senate begins to wrap up its work for the year. "This week, senators will have a chance to pass the Iran sanctions extension bill that recently passed the House on an overwhelming vote," McConnell said. "Preserving the sanctions is critical given Iran's disturbing pattern of aggression and its persistent efforts to expand its influence across the Middle East." The Kentucky Republican is using a procedural shortcut, known as "Rule 14", to place the House-passed bill on the Senate calendar, paving the way for it to be brought up for a vote. As part of an agreement, senators will vote on the legislation at a time determined by McConnell and Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). The House passed a 10-year extension of the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA), which is set expire at the end of the year, earlier this month in a 419-1 vote... McConnell added Tuesday he expects Congress and the Trump administration next year to "undertake a review of our overall policy toward Iran."

Weapon shipments intercepted in the Arabian sea by Australian, French and U.S. warships this year contained large quantities of Russian and Iranian weapons, some of which had markings similar to munitions recovered from Houthi fighters in Yemen, according to a new report released by an independent research group Wednesday. In October, U.S. officials claimed to have captured five shipments of Iranian weapons bound for Yemen. The report, published by Conflict Armament Research, or CAR, draws on markings found on rifles, rocket launchers, anti-tank guided missiles and munitions, providing some of the more concrete evidence to date of Iran's logistical support to Houthis fighting in Yemen's nearly two-year-old civil war... "CAR's analysis of the seized materiel ... suggests the existence of a weapon pipeline extending from Iran to Somalia and Yemen, which involves the transfer, by dhow, of significant quantities of Iranian-manufactured weapons and weapons that plausibly derive from Iranian stockpiles," the report says.

Iran is ready to respond if the US violates the landmark nuclear agreement signed between Tehran and the group of six countries known as the P5+1 by renewing sanctions against the Islamic Republic, says the top Iranian nuclear official. "Iran has made necessary preparations for potential US decisions about the extension of sanctions," Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), told reporters on Monday. In case of the final approval of the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA), it will "certainly be a violation of the JCPOA (the nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)," he added... He said Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has already provided guidelines to Iranian officials about standing ready to considerably increase the country's nuclear enrichment capacity.

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

The director of the CIA has warned US President-elect Donald Trump that ending the Iran nuclear deal would be "disastrous" and "the height of folly"... "I think it would be disastrous," Mr Brennan told the BBC. "First of all, for one administration to tear up an agreement that a previous administration made would be unprecedented." He said such a move would risk strengthening hardliners in Iran and risk other states pursuing nuclear programmes in response to a renewed Iranian effort. "I think it would be the height of folly if the next administration were to tear up that agreement," he said.

NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM

Senior Gulf sources revealed that the highly radioactive material stolen recently from Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant included an alarming supply of Iridium-192 - which can later be attached to conventional explosives and used as a dirty bomb. A dirty bomb, if set off, would cause radioactive pollution across the region. The use of the weapon would contaminate the area around the dispersal agent- or conventional explosion- with radioactive material, serving primarily as an area denial device against civilians through radioactive pollution. The International Atomic Energy Agency defines had warned members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, on Nov. 18, with respect to the present hazard, after being given notice by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) on the missing iridium-192, sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. The iridium-192 was stolen during transportation. The car was later found but without the radioactive substance.

CONGRESSIONAL ACTION

Senate Democrats are ripping Iran over threats issued by top Iranian officials to retaliate if Congress extends sanctions that the Obama administration has said are permitted under last summer's nuclear deal, according to conversations with lawmakers conducted by THE WEEKLY STANDARD... Iranian officials have threatened reprisal in recent weeks if Congress extends the longstanding Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) and have called the potential 10-year extension a violation of the nuclear deal... Democrats rejected Iranian complaints Tuesday and reaffirmed their support for extending the ISA. "Iran is making this up. These problems don't exist," Maryland senator Ben Cardin, ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told TWS. "Congress, by extending ISA, is not taking any new steps against Iran at all." Cardin, who voted against the nuclear deal, added that the ISA is critical for congressional "snapback" sanctions, should Iran violate the nuclear deal. "Unless Congress acts, the congressional sanctions don't exist after December 31," Cardin said. "The ability to snap back wouldn't be there on the congressional side."

A Texas state senator plans to shore up, close loopholes, and expand the state's existing divestiture standard for the Iranian and Sudanese governments in two bills that prevent taxpayer dollars from flowing into countries that sponsor terrorism. On Tuesday, November 22, Senator Van Taylor (R-Plano) pre-filed legislation in preparation for the 85th session, which convenes in January. Senate Bill 253, the Terror State Divestiture Act, and Senate Bill 252, the Terror State Contracting Divestiture Act, strengthen the state's current Iranian and Sudanese divestiture standards. Earlier this year, Governor Greg Abbott championed the notion of such legislation. Currently, the 2013 Texas Prohibition on Investment in Iran Act only bans state pension and retirement systems from investing in Iran or with entities that do business with the Iranian and Sudanese governments. Nothing prevents state agencies and political subdivisions of this state from using taxpayer dollars to contract with these same companies.

SANCTIONS RELIEF

Imports of crude oil by Iran's four major buyers in Asia in October more than doubled from a year ago as the producer continued to recoup market share lost under sanctions, pushed higher as the two biggest buyers India and China each took in nearly 800,0000 barrels per day. Iran's top four Asian buyers, China, India, South Korea and Japan, imported 1.99 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, up 147.9 percent on year, government and ship-tracking data showed, marking the highest volumes since at least 2010, according to data by International Energy Agency.

Iran and Romania have signed an initial agreement to build a 1,000-megawatt power station near the Iraqi border, IRNA says. The agreement was signed during a recent trip by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to several east European states, the news agency reported. "The MoU for the construction of a 1,000-megawatt power station in Mehran was signed by Iranian and Romanian investors as one of the achievements of this trip," Mohammad Azadi, a member of the economic delegation in the visit, said. The project signed between Pichak Sanat Ilam company of Iran and the Romanian side calls for investment of up $700 million, 70% of which will be sourced by the Romanians and the rest by Iran.

MAN Diesel & Turbo announced it will deliver two of its Refinery Train Package (ReTPac) concept turbomachinery trains to a refinery about 450 km south of the Iranian capital of Tehran. The multimillion dollar order was made by Iranian EPC Nargan Co., with the machinery later to be operated by Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC). The ReTPac trains will serve the hydrotreating process to ensure an efficient production of ultra-low sulfur fuels, the company said. In proximity to that order, MAN PrimeServ, the company's service provider, received several spare part orders from the Iranian Oil Pipelines and Telecommunication Co., where MAN provides service and upgrading of turbomachinery equipment along the Marun-Isfahan oil pipeline. This includes delivery of spare parts for S-Series gas turbines, a heritage brand of MAN Diesel & Turbo. "These initial orders reward our efforts to reestablish relationships with Iranian partners now that the international sanctions have been lifted," said Dr. Uwe Lauber, chief executive officer of MAN Diesel & Turbo... In the course of reentering the Iranian market the company has also reopened its local branch, MAN Iran Power, based in Tehran.

HUMAN RIGHTS

Iran must end the harassment of a woman trying to learn the fate of her brother and his newborn daughter, who disappeared from prison more than 30 years ago, a group of United Nations human rights experts has said. The campaign against Raheleh Rahemipour may be a direct reprisal for her search, according to the experts. Ms. Rahemipour is now facing criminal charges and has undergone a lengthy interrogation at the same jail where her brother and the baby were last seen in 1984 - Evin prison in Teheran. The UN experts are calling on Iran to drop all charges against Ms. Rahemipour and halt the campaign against her. "Rather than investigating the alleged disappearance of Ms. Rahemipour's relatives, the government of Iran has decided to launch a campaign of harassment and intimidation against her," the experts stated. "We are concerned that the judicial process against Ms. Rahemipour may be a direct reprisal for her human rights activism in the search for her relatives, as well as the exercise of her rights to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression."

DOMESTIC POLITICS

Iranian media are reporting that the country's currency has plummeted more than five percent against the U.S. dollar in less than 10 days. The reports said the unofficial street trading rate for the rial hit 39,300 per dollar on Tuesday, compared with 37,300 rial nearly 10 days ago... The strength of the U.S. dollar and falling oil prices in international markets are seen as the main reason for the drop in the rial's value.

Judicial authorities in Iran have attempted to arrest a parliamentarian despite his legislative immunity because of the MP's scrutiny of the judiciary chief's personal financial conduct. Mahmoud Sadeghi, an MP close to the reformist camp who represents the constituency of Tehran and its vicinity in the Iranian parliament, Majlis, was confronted on Sunday by security officials who had gathered in front of his house to arrest him. Sadeghi's supporters were angered by the move, and a group of students, activists and parliamentary colleagues assembled near his house to prevent officials from detaining him. It ultimately led to the authorities reversing their decision. On Monday, Sadeghi described the judiciary's move on Twitter as illegal, and said relevant officials had since intervened. "These pressures will have no effect on my determination and will, nor those of other parliamentarians in seeking transparency and fighting corruption in all [state] institutions," he said in a separate tweet. Earlier this month, Sadeghi had questioned the justice minister over allegations that the head of the judiciary, Ayatollah Sadeq Larijani, possessed 63 personal bank accounts filled with public funds.

OPINION & ANALYSIS

President-Elect Donald Trump's national security appointments - CIA Director-designate Mike Pompeo, future national security adviser Michael T. Flynn and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Mr. Trump's choice for ambassador to the United Nations - differ with him or with each other on such crucial issues as relations with Russia and the civil war in Syria. But Mr. Trump and his appointees appear united on one point: antipathy toward Iran and the international deal limiting Tehran's nuclear program. During the campaign, Mr. Trump repeatedly described the 2015 accord as "a disaster" and suggested he would tear it up and "double up and triple up sanctions." Mr. Pompeo tweeted just before Trump announced his planned nomination that "I look forward to rolling back this disastrous deal." Mr. Flynn has said that "the U.S. gets nothing but grief" from the deal. We supported the nuclear pact, albeit reluctantly because of its sunset provisions that will remove most controls on Iran's uranium enrichment within a decade. In essence, it is a risky bet that the Islamic republic will lose its appetite for a nuclear arsenal during that time. But for the Trump administration to start by voiding the accord would be a curious inversion of priorities.

While the U.S. administration maintains that Iran has thus far complied with the nuclear deal, the recent International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report indicates that for the second time, Iran has exceeded the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action's (JCPOA) limit for its inventory of heavy water. Its heavy water inventory is now slightly greater than permitted quantities, though it does not at this stage, and in itself, materially impact on the breakout time under the agreement. Still, this is concerning due to the fact that Iran exceeded the limit intentionally. And while Iran stated that it is planning to ship out five tons of material at a later date, it shows disrespect for the nuclear terms of the agreement. Iranian officials have also continued to flaunt their nuclear ambitions, raising questions about whether Iran is violating the spirit of the agreement. As recently as August 2016, Mohammad-Javad Larijani, a foreign affairs adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, called for building a "massive institute for nuclear research" and said that to deter a Western attack, Iran must convince the world that it can build a bomb within 48 hours. To assess statements of this nature, transparency is critical, especially as Iran seeks to persuade the world that its nuclear program is and will continue to be strictly peaceful.







Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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