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TOP STORIES
An imprisoned political activist in Iran who began a
hunger strike more than two months ago to protest the incarceration
of his wife halted the fast on Tuesday when the judicial authorities
released her at least temporarily, rights groups and Iranian news
media reported. The showdown between the authorities and the
activist, Arash Sadeghi, who was sentenced in 2015 to at least 15
years for acts deemed seditious, including spreading propaganda,
appeared to be a rare instance of compromise by a government not
known for leniency. The release of Mr. Sadeghi's wife, Golrokh
Ebrahimi-Iraee, came a day after an equally rare demonstration on the
couple's behalf by protesters in front of Tehran's Evin Prison, where
both have been held. Videos of the demonstration were spread on
Twitter. The demonstration followed a campaign on social media to
support the couple, which became a trending topic internationally
despite the heavy restrictions on the use of Twitter and Facebook in
Iran.
An Argentine court on Thursday ordered a renewed
investigation into a prosecutor's accusation that former President
Cristina Fernandez covered up the alleged involvement of Iranians in
a 1994 attack on a Jewish community center. The bombing of the
Argentine Israelite Mutual Association center in Buenos Aires killed
85 people and wounded hundreds. Iran has denied any connection with
the attack and declined to turn over suspects in the case.
Argentina's official Center of Judicial Information said the
country's top criminal tribunal had accepted a request by a coalition
of Jewish associations to re-examine the charge made by prosecutor
Alberto Nisman on Jan. 14, 2015, against Fernandez, Foreign Minister
Hector Timerman and other officials in her government. He alleged
Fernandez reached a secret deal with Iran's government to hide the
role of several Iranian officials suspected in the bombing. Nisman
was found dead with a gunshot to the head four days later.
The world's largest oil trader, Vitol, has clinched a
deal with the National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC) to loan it an
equivalent of $1 billion in euros guaranteed by future exports of
refined products, four sources familiar with the matter said. The
pre-finance deal is the first such major contract signed between Iran
and a trading house since sanctions were lifted in early 2016...
Traders have increasingly turned to pre-finance in recent years to
secure long-term access to large volumes of oil and products - the
system of pre-finance by large traders including Vitol has for
example kept the Iraqi region of Kurdistan afloat during its war with
Islamic State in the last two years. The Vitol Iranian deal was
signed in October and will come into effect this month, one of the
sources who is based in Tehran said. "It is in euro...with the
interest rate of around 8 percent in exchange for oil products,"
the source said, adding that some products could be supplied by the
private sector rather than NIOC.
BUSINESS RISK
An Arab separatist group has claimed two pipeline
bombings in Iran's oil-rich south and threatened to launch more
attacks in the coming year as the country tries to boost production
following the nuclear deal with world powers. Iranian Interior
Ministry spokesman Salman Samani later denied the claim by the Arab
Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahwaz, which said it bombed
the pipelines early Tuesday morning in Khuzestan province. The
militants released online video they said showed one of the pipelines
exploding... The separatists' statement said the bombings came in
response to Iran's Oil Ministry publishing a list of 29 international
companies qualified to bid for projects following the atomic accord.
The group said 2017 will be "very different to previous years
since the movement has prepared detailed and precise plans to carry
out a number of high-quality important operations against the Iranian
enemy state." Coordinated pipeline attacks could hinder Iran's
efforts to recoup cash lost under international sanctions.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Japan's Inpex Corp is in the running to develop a
major oilfield in Iran, Kyodo News reported on Wednesday, as Tehran
looks to aggressively ramp up crude output following the lifting of
sanctions. Japan's top energy developer is a strong candidate for the
project after signing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to look
into developing the Azadegan oilfield, Kyodo said, citing Noreddin
Shahnazizadeh, managing director of Iran's Petroleum Engineering and
Development Company. Kyodo reported that a tender would be held
around the first quarter of this year... Iran has named 29
international companies as being allowed to bid for oil and gas
projects using the new, less restrictive Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC)
model, including five Japanese firms, Inpex, Itochu Corp, Japan
Petroleum Exploration (Japex), Mitsubishi Corp and Mitsui.
HUMAN RIGHTS
The husband of a British-Iranian charity worker jailed
in Iran is "terrified" about the outcome of his wife's
appeal, he has said. Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was sentenced to five
years for allegedly plotting to topple the government in Tehran. Her
husband, Richard Ratcliffe, has criticised the UK government for a
lack of action and said the appeal against the term was happening in
"secret". It is understood it is being held in Tehran on
Wednesday.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
The tensions and clashes between conservative
judiciary chief Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani and moderate President
Hassan Rouhani have entered a new phase, with Larijani saying Rouhani
has been accused of taking money from jailed tycoon Babak Zanjani.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
As the bipartisan opponents of President Obama's Iran
nuclear agreement prepare to address its many shortcomings, they
should beware of unwittingly repeating some of his mistakes. Instead
of relying on more sanctions to dismantle or renegotiate the deal,
the most urgent need is restoring U.S. credibility and resolve in
opposing Iranian aggression and reshaping the Middle East. Two
fundamental misjudgments led to the disastrous nuclear agreement.
First, Mr. Obama eschewed credible military threats and relied on
congressionally generated economic sanctions to pressure Iran to
negotiate. Second, he focused only on Iran's nuclear program,
ignoring its malignant regional misconduct. Free of pressure and
scrutiny, Tehran shaped the agreement's terms and expanded its
aggression and influence. The current policy debate has ignored these
mistakes. Instead, it is focused on using sanctions to enforce and
improve the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. This narrow
approach is counterproductive. The agreement front-loaded Iran's
economic benefits. But it only mothballed elements of its nuclear
program; it did not eradicate it. The U.S. will need years to rebuild
a robust international sanctions regime; Iran requires mere weeks to
rebuild its nuclear program. Even if Iran remains within the
agreement's framework, it might respond to sanctions by escalating
its regional aggression, exerting its own more immediate and dangerous
form of leverage. A proven necessary ingredient in dealing with Iran
is a credible military threat. Two examples: Tehran suspended
elements of its nuclear program in 2003-04 following the U.S.
overthrow of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, and it never crossed
Israel's 2012 red line over its nuclear stockpile. As the Trump
administration considers Iran policy, including whether and how to
enforce, renegotiate or cancel the nuclear agreement with Tehran,
here are five policies it can implement to put Iran on notice and
regain the strategic advantage.
President-elect Trump has threatened to tear up the
nuclear agreement between Iran and Western powers, and to take a
tougher line against Iran, but legal experts are divided on what that
spells for actual policy. President Trump could, among other things, re-impose
the "secondary" sanctions that bar foreign companies from
doing business with those individuals or entities on sanctions lists.
Those sanctions were relaxed as part of the nuclear deal. (Much of
the relief granted under the nuclear deal could be rescinded
"with the stroke of a pen," Risk & Compliance Journal
reported in November.) But reimposing such limits would run up
against European opposition and other considerations, like U.S. job
losses, the lawyers said. "The Iran sanctions program will be
the one with the quickest attempt by the administration to put their
mark on," said Adam Smith, an attorney at Gibson Dunn &
Crutcher LLP who previously served as a senior adviser at the U.S.
Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, the main
enforcement body for sanctions.
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