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TOP STORIES
He hasn't even taken office, but Donald Trump is already
looming large in Iran's presidential election. As the Islamic Republic
prepares to vote in May, Trump's threats to dismantle the 2015 nuclear
accord, along with Congressional action against Iran, are providing a
rallying cry for Tehran's conservatives. Under pressure, President Hassan
Rouhani, the moderate leader who clinched the deal, and his officials have
adopted a harsher tone against Washington: If Trump tears up the deal,
"we will burn it here," Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said
Sunday. State TV compared U.S. lawmakers to gangsters in a Martin Scorsese
movie. "This election will be shaped by Donald Trump coming into
office," said Mahjoob Zweiri, a professor of Middle Eastern politics who
focuses on Iran at Qatar University in Doha. "There will be interest in
having a hardliner, or Hassan Rouhani himself will be acting more as a
hardliner." ... "Bolstering a hardline Iranian president to stand
up to his American counterpart was tried in 2005," said Ali Vaez, senior
Iran analyst at International Crisis Group, referring to Ahmadinejad.
A bill has been introduced in Congress that could curtail the
jetliner deals between Airbus and Boeing and Iran, offering an early test for
the incoming administration and the future of the Iran nuclear deal. Iran Air
took delivery last week of the first of 100 jets it has ordered from Airbus.
The first of 80 aircraft from Boeing (BA) are scheduled to arrive in 2018.
The badly needed jets will reconstitute Iran's decrepit commercial aircraft
fleet, which has been languishing under decades of Western sanctions. Peter
Roskam, a Republican member of the House, introduced a bill on Friday to
initiate an investigation by the Trump administration's Director of National Intelligence
into Iran Air and the nation's other airlines. If Iran Air or any other
airline were to be found to support the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps or
foreign terrorist organizations, the airline would be added to the U.S.
sanctions list and be prevented from receiving new aircraft or U.S.-made
parts. That would effectively freeze the sale of jets from Boeing to Iran.
At the start of his final week in the White House, Barack
Obama issued a warning to the incoming Trump administration about the value
of the nuclear deal with Iran. "The United States must remember that
this agreement was the result of years of work," read a statement
released by the White House on Monday, which did not mention the new
president by name. The deal, the statement said, "represents an
agreement between the world's major powers - not simply the United States and
Iran." The White House said the agreement, implemented one year ago on
Monday, "must be measured against the alternatives - a diplomatic resolution
that prevents Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is far preferable to an
unconstrained Iranian nuclear program or another war in the Middle
East." ... In an interview with the Times of London released on Sunday,
Trump said he did not want to say "what I'm gonna do with the Iran
deal"... "But I'm not happy with the Iran deal, I think it's one of
the worst deals ever made, I think it's one of the dumbest deals I've ever
seen ... Where you give ... $150bn back to a country, where you give $1.7bn
in cash. Did you ever see $100m in hundred-dollar bills? It's a lot. $1.7bn
in cash. Plane loads. Many planes. Boom. $1.7bn. I don't understand. I think
that money is in Swiss bank accounts."
UANI IN THE NEWS
Now, with Trump about to take office, the potential obstacles
to doing business look far greater than before. Many US politicians have
opposed the deal just as vehemently as he has. They argue that it does not
effectively prevent Iran from acquiring the bomb and boosts the economy of a
country that, they say, supports terrorism and poses an existential threat to
Israel... They have also sought to dissuade financial institutions from
re-engaging with Iran. To that effect, one anti-JCPOA lobby group in the US,
United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), had by mid-October sent letters to 42
banks in 18 countries, listing all of the potential risks involved in doing
business in the Islamic republic. UANI hopes to persuade bank
compliance teams that the risks are simply too high to justify interacting
with Iran. One letter to Commerzbank, which UANI shared with Euromoney,
mentions everything from the risk of falling foul of money-laundering
regulation to the risk of employees being kidnapped... That said, the
commercial, legal and political obstacles to ripping up the deal could slow
Trump and the Republicans down, or even force them to reconsider their
position. Mark Wallace, the chief executive of UANI, says: "I don't
think it was a serious position to say that on day one you could go in and
rip up the JCPOA. I think that was an unserious position - even as an
opponent of the JCPOA, I don't think that would have been appropriate."
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
Iran will not renegotiate its nuclear agreement with world
powers, even if it faces new U.S. sanctions after Donald Trump becomes
president, Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday...
"There will be no renegotiation and the (agreement) will not be
reopened," said Araqchi, Iran's top nuclear negotiator at the talks that
led to the agreement in 2015, quoted by the state news agency IRNA. "We
and many analysts believe that the (agreement) is consolidated. The new U.S.
administration will not be able to abandon it," Araqchi told a news
conference in Tehran, held a year after the deal took effect. "Nuclear
talks with America are over and we have nothing else to discuss," he
added. "It's quite likely that the U.S. Congress or the next
administration will act against Iran and imposes new sanctions."
Iran's president has compared talk of renegotiating its
nuclear accord to "converting a shirt back to cotton," and says
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's talk of doing so is "mainly
slogans." ... Iran's President Hassan Rouhani told reporters Tuesday
that "renegotiation has no meaning at all." He added that "Mr.
Trump has so far made many remarks on the deal. These are mainly slogans. I
do not see it likely that something happens in practice."
Incoming White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus said Sunday
that the Iran nuclear agreement is on life support, but refused to say
whether President-elect Donald Trump's administration would get rid of the
deal. "I think it's on life support. I'll put it that way. But I'm not
here to declare one way or another ultimately where this is going to
go," Priebus told ABC's "This Week." ... Priebus said on
Sunday that Trump believes the deal is "really bad." "I know
the president-elect does not like the Iran deal, thinks it is really, really
bad. And that's sort of the starting point on that discussion," he said.
Iran has complied with a deadline set by its landmark nuclear
deal with world powers by removing hundreds of centrifuges, machines that
enrich uranium, from a site buried deep inside a mountain, the U.N. atomic
agency said on Monday. The deal reached between six powers and Iran in 2015
stated that no more enrichment would take place at the Fordow site near the
holy city of Qom for 15 years, but that Iran could keep just over 1,000
centrifuges there for other uses... The transfer of centrifuges and other
equipment from Fordow to storage at another underground enrichment site at
Natanz was completed within a deadline of one year from the day the deal was
put in place, Jan. 16 of last year, the IAEA said.
U foreign affairs head Federica Mogherini on Monday insisted
the bloc will stand by the Iran nuclear accord, bluntly condemned by US
President-elect Donald Trump, because it serves Europe's security needs.
"It is proof that diplomacy works and delivers... The European Union
will continue to work for the respect and implementation of this extremely
important deal, most of all for our security," Mogherini told reporters
as she went into an EU foreign ministers meeting... Mogherini said she would
not comment on Trump's remarks, but claimed -- on the first anniversary of
the accord she helped negotiate -- that much had been accomplished. The
agreement "has delivered both on the nuclear-related commitments Iran
took and on the firm determination of the international community to fully implement
this deal", she said. As far as the EU was concerned, the accord had
resulted in increased trade and economic ties, "which is really
significant", she added.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Stefan Löfven is set to visit Iran after being invited by
Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, with trade and Syria on the agenda. The
Swedish PM's visit will take place on the 11th and 12th of February, the
Government Offices of Sweden (Regeringskansliet) announced, and will also
concern bilateral cooperation and developments in the region. "There are
several reasons. One is because it is a major power in the region. With us
sitting on the UN Security Council I have met President Rouhani in New York
and I would like to meet him in Iran. The other is clear, now that the
economic sanctions against Iran are lifted is important that Swedish industry
can gain access to that market," Löfven told news agency TT. A business
delegation including representatives of a large number of Swedish companies
and government agencies will also travel for the visit, led by Sweden's
minister for EU affairs and trade Ann Linde... Opposition politicians have
pressed Löfven to bring up human rights issues in Iran during the visit.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is slated for
visits to Switzerland and Malaysia to discuss regional and bilateral issues.
Iranian Foreing Minister Zarif will depart for Malaysia to take part in an ad
hoc meeting by the foreign ministers of the Organization for Islamic
Cooperation (OIC) countries in Kuala Lumpur on January 19 to address the
situation of the Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar... Before departing for
Malaysia, Zarif will make a short stop in Switzerland to attend the annual
World Economic Forum in Davos that convenes on Tuesday where 3,000 delegates
from all over the world will engage in a series of meetings and discussions
about "entrepreneurship in the global public interest". Zarif will
deliver speech on the latest developments in the region, particularly in
Syria.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
US "hostility" to Iran is growing day by day despite
Tehran's nuclear deal, a senior Iranian official said Sunday, ahead of the
first anniversary of the historic accord. "The United States has done
whatever it can to slow down Iran's progress" after the deal, said
Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the chief Iranian negotiator in the
agreement that took effect on January 16 last year. "In the last 12
months, we have witnessed delays and the disrespecting of promises by the US
and some countries. Their hostility increases by the day," Araghchi told
reporters.
A year after its nuclear deal went into effect, Iran is
increasingly concerned over the arrival of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump,
who has threatened to tear up the historic accord. Analysts say it is
unlikely the Trump administration will completely dismantle the agreement,
which he described as "the worst deal ever negotiated." A series of
Cabinet appointments, however, have signaled Trump is likely to take a hard
line on Tehran. And that will ratchet up pressure on Iran's President Hassan Rouhani,
who is making the nuclear deal a centerpiece of his re-election bid this
year. "Some of the people who are taking office in the executive branch
have a long history of being against Iran," said Foad Izadi, a professor
of international studies at Tehran University. "We are going to see a
harsher policy toward Iran during the Trump administration," he said.
More than 35 prominent Iranian-Americans, including artists
and academics, have called on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to preserve a
nuclear deal with Iran by world powers and choose "diplomacy over
sanctions and war" in dealing with the Islamic republic. The January 5
letter warns that scrapping the nuclear accord would be a "disaster for
both nations." "It would also once again put the United States and
Iran on the path of war," it warns of ditching the so-called Joint
Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) to curb Tehran's disputed nuclear
activities in exchange for sanctions relief. The letter comes days after 30
Iranian activists called on Trump to take a harder line on Tehran by imposing
further sanctions and encouraging regime change there... The signatories of
last month's letter urging the incoming U.S. administration to harden its
line toward Tehran include former Iranian political prisoner Ahmad Batebi, an
iconic figure of a 1999 student uprising against Iran's establishment, and
Arash Sobhani, the lead singer of the popular rock band Kiosk. They describe
the nuclear deal as "disastrous" and liken Iran to the extremist
group Islamic State (IS, also sometimes referred to as ISIS).
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Global shipping insurers have devised a way to ensure nearly
full coverage for Iranian oil exports from next month after striking a deal
to provide cover without involving U.S.-domiciled reinsurers, officials in
Tokyo and London said. Restrictions on U.S. firms handling Iranian goods had
greatly limited the number of reinsurers of cargoes, but the new arrangements
- which essentially allow re-insurance of ships without the involvement of
U.S. firms - should boost the number of eligible shipments. That will provide
a boon to Iran, which is trying to raise oil exports after most sanctions
were lifted last year, though banking restrictions that remain in place that
could cap any major rise in exports. "There will be no U.S.-domiciled
reinsurer participation on the 2017 IG reinsurance program," Andrew
Bardot, secretary and executive officer at the International Group (IG) of
P&I Clubs in London told Reuters on Tuesday. The new arrangements take
effect on Feb. 20, he and other officials said.
South Korea's Iranian crude oil imports in December soared
nearly eight times greater than a year ago, and its 2016 crude imports from
Tehran more than doubled from 2015 levels, following last January's lifting
of sanctions targeting the Mideast nation. The world's fifth-largest crude
importer brought 1.55 million tonnes of Iranian crude in December, or 367,317
barrels per day (bpd), compared with 207,629 tonnes a year ago and 1.73
million tonnes in the previous month, customs office data showed on Sunday.
In November, South Korea's Iranian crude imports more than quadrupled from a
year earlier as Hyundai Chemical's new condensate splitter boosted the
country's ultra-light oil demand from the Middle Eastern country... South
Korea is one of Iran's major oil customers. Seoul imported 14 million tonnes,
or 281,187 bpd, of crude from Tehran in 2016, up 145.4 percent from 5.7
million tonnes, or 114,595 bpd, in 2015.
HUMAN RIGHTS
In yet another case of a foreign resident or dual national
from a western country grabbed and imprisoned in Iran without access to a
lawyer or any other aspect of due process, Iranian-born Swedish resident and
expert in emergency disaster medicine Ahmadreza Jalali has been held in Evin
Prison for almost nine months. He is now approaching three weeks on hunger
strike in protest against his detainment. Jalali was arrested by agents of
Iran's Ministry of Intelligence on April 24, 2016 while visiting the Iranian
capital, after being officially invited by Tehran University...
"Ahmadreza had always traveled to Iran by invitation of state organizations,
including the Red Crescent, and never experienced any problems before,"
his wife Vida Mehran-nia told the Campaign, adding that her husband has been
charged with "collaborating with enemy states." ... Mehran-nia told
the Campaign that her husband began his hunger strike on December 25, the day
his interrogators told him he would receive the maximum punishment... A
non-practicing general medicine physician with a post-doctorate degree in
emergency and disaster medicine, Jalali lives in Sweden with his wife and two
children.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Perplexed residents of Tehran focused their eyes - and
smartphones - upward on Monday afternoon as antiaircraft weapons hidden on
rooftops suddenly began blasting away at "an unidentified flying
object" in the clear sky. The thunderous clack-clack of gunfire and
small dots of white smoke overhead provided a loud and unexpected
accompaniment to the start of city's evening rush, as videos showed. Traffic
slowed to a near standstill. It was the second time in a month that
antiaircraft guns had opened fire in Tehran, Iran's capital. And both times
the target turned out to be, according to the authorities, a camera drone.
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Tuesday, January 17, 2017
Eye on Iran: Trump's Deal Threats Hang Over Iran's Election
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