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TOP STORIES
Iran's rial fell to a record low Monday, breaking
through the 50,000-to-the-dollar mark for the first time as analysts
blamed uncertainty from Washington. The rial has lost around a
quarter of its value in the past six months, hitting 50,860 against
the U.S. dollar, according to Financial Informing Network, a trusted
Iranian website for open market currency rates.
A military Arab-led coalition Monday threatened
retaliation against Iran, accusing the Shiite power of being behind a
barrage of Yemeni rebel missile attacks on Saudi Arabia.
A former undercover informant says he provided evidence
to the FBI during President Obama's first term that Russia was
assisting Iran's nuclear program even as billions in new U.S.
business flowed to Moscow's uranium industry.
UANI IN THE NEWS
"The missile attack on Saudi Arabia by the Houthis
this weekend provides even more evidence that the Iranian regime is
continuing its efforts to incite conflict and further destabilization
in the region," United Against Nuclear Iran Chairman Joe Lieberman,
the former independent Connecticut senator, reacted. "The
Iranian regime's continued aggression demonstrates the urgent need to
hold the regime accountable by cracking down on its illicit
non-nuclear activities."
NUCLEAR DEAL
President Trump is "prepared to potentially
withdraw" from the Iran nuclear deal if changes to the agreement
aren't made, White House principal deputy press secretary Raj Shah
said Monday.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told French
and German foreign ministers who visited Jerusalem today that he
predicts "with high probability" that President Trump is
going to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal on May 12th and urged
the Europeans to agree to significant changes in the deal...
President Trump ditched two key members of his foreign
policy team in the span of two weeks, and perhaps no international
agenda item is now set to undergo as big a change as the U.S. posture
on the Iran nuclear deal... Here are the four main approaches to
withdrawal, from least to most aggressive, that Trump could take on
the deal after the May deadline passes - and what they could mean for
the day after.
BUSINESS RISK
Oil prices ticked up Tuesday morning, as geopolitical
risks to supply continued to bolster the market... "Newly
heightened geopolitical risks of a more hawkish U.S. policy towards
Iran...clearly raises the likelihood of oil trade disruptions and
with it upside risks to oil prices in the near term," said Ehsan
Khoman, head of research for the Middle East at Bank of
Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in a note Tuesday. A withdrawal by the U.S. from
a 2015 international agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program would
result in the reimposition of economic sanctions on the Islamic
Republic.
SANCTIONS EVASION
Iran could do a lot of different things to kind of skirt
possible tighter sanctions on its oil sector, such as sending oil to
different places, Michael Cohen, head of energy commodities research
at Barclays, told Bloomberg on Monday.
OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
In keeping with the tradition of declaring an annual
motto at the beginning of each Iranian year, Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei has named the current year that began March 21
"Support for Iranian Products." Many observers say the
motto is a continuation of last year's, "Economy of Resistance:
Action and Deeds," and is a clear sign that Iran is continuing
to focus on the economy, its Achilles' heel... Following Khamenei's
Nowruz speech on March 21, Iranians have had mixed reactions to his
urging citizens to buy domestically made products.
CYBERWARFARE
Last week the U.S. government announced indictments and
sanctions against an Iranian hacker network involved in one of the
largest state-sponsored hacking campaigns the United States has ever
prosecuted. The nine Iranians named all were affiliated with the
Mabna Institute, a private Iran-based company that the government
alleges hacks on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and
whose members sold the data for profit. A private U.S. research
company has been tracking the same campaign since late 2017, and on
Monday released details that show the hackers targeted not just U.S.
university professors, but also students and faculty to collect
credentials for the victims' university library accounts.
The U.S. Treasury and Justice Departments took combined
action Friday to designate and indict the Iranian firm Mabna
Institute, as well as nine of its contractors responsible for "a
coordinated campaign of cyber intrusions." Between 2013 and
2017, these entities hacked hundreds of universities, private
companies, and government agencies in the U.S. and around the world.
The four-year campaign to steal billions of dollars' worth of
intellectual property attests to Iran's evolving cyber capabilities.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
The Houthi movement that controls northern Yemen vowed
on Monday to fire more missiles into Saudi Arabia unless it stops
bombing the country, after one of its missiles caused casualties in
the Saudi capital for the first time. The Saudi-led coalition
fighting the Houthis accused them of using Iranian-made missiles.
Spokesman Colonel Turki al-Malki said the coalition reserved the
right to respond to Iran "at the appropriate time and
manner", under international law and within the framework of the
United Nations, to protect Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia's Ambassador to the United States, Prince
Khalid bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, on Tuesday spoke out against the
Iranian regime following a series of Houthi missile attacks on Saudi
Arabia.
A video showing the Saudi military responding to an
unprovoked attack by Iran is now more relevant than ever after a
catastrophic failure from the kingdom's missile defenses. The video
first appeared in December 2017, and shows Saudi forces single-handedly
destroying Iran's military and nuclear program in an all-out invasion
involving an amphibious assault and paratroopers.
Yemen's Houthi rebels fired at least seven missiles into
Saudi Arabia on Sunday, hitting different targets including the
capital city of Riyadh, according to Iranian and Arab media
outlets... Iranian outlets affiliated with the Islamic Revolution
Guards Corps (IRGC), however, lauded the missile attacks that killed
at least one civilian in Riyadh.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards denied on Tuesday Saudi
accusations that Tehran has provided the Houthi movement in Yemen
with ballistic capabilities, a day after a Houthi missile hit the
Saudi capital, Riyadh.
Yemeni government forces backed by Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates are slowly but steadily advancing toward the key
rebel-held cities of Sana and Hodeida. To blunt this advance, the
Houthis are increasingly using advanced antiarmor roadside bombs
known as explosively formed penetrators (EFPs)-a technology provided
by Iran via its proxy Lebanese Hezbollah. Given the preponderance of
evidence on the matter, the international community urgently needs to
expose this link and provide support to minimize the effectiveness of
deadly EFP munitions.
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
Tehran's Ambassador to Baghdad Iraj Masjedi held a
meeting with the leader of Harakat al-Nujaba, an Iraqi militia group
fighting in Iraq and Syria, to discuss Iraqi and regional issues,
Tasnim News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolution
Guards Corps (IRGC), reported. The two sides stressed the need to
continue fighting against ISIS remnants not only in Iraq but also in
Syria.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
It's not surprising that the arrest of a prominent
Iranian cleric -- even one that led to protests in Iran and the Arab
world -- hasn't made a ripple in the Western news media. After all,
the Tehran regime makes arbitrary arrests all the time. But this is
different: The controversy over the detention of Ayatollah Hussein
Shirazi this month is reigniting an important debate over whether
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, should be able to
claim divine sanction for his unlimited powers to rule the state.
SYRIA & IRAN
Iran, Russia, and China have all signaled that they seek
to profit from Syria's reconstruction... The U.S. should be clear
that it will sanction all foreign firms that do business with the
Syrian government or with other sanctioned entities, including
state-owned firms in the energy sector.
IRAQ & IRAN
Tehran swiftly filled the power vacuum in Iraq in the
wake of the US-led 2003 invasion and the collapse of the Ba'ath
regime. Tehran also exploited the 2011 US withdrawal and the
subsequent emergence of ISIS to further consolidate its influence in
Iraq. However, regional countries' latest efforts to restore their
presence in Iraq have alarmed Tehran. After all, Tehran managed to
score relatively easy gains in Iraq because regional and international
players were largely staying on the sidelines. If these players
decide to play a more active role in post-ISIS Iraq, Tehran's
influence in the Arab country is set to decline.
ISRAEL AND IRAN
Just last month, the long-simmering Israeli-Iranian
conflict came out of the shadows when Iran sent a drone across the
Jordanian border into Israel, and Israel retaliated with air strikes
on several targets including the Iranian drone operators at a Syrian
base in Palmyra, northeast of Damascus. The two sides appear to be on
a collision course as Iran penetrates further into a hollowed-out Syria
and Israel tries to frustrate that effort. The current status quo,
where Israel limits itself to enforcing its publicly stated red lines
in Syria, is likely to continue. However, new events that change the
intentions of the parties could lead to miscalculation and
uncontrollable escalation.
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