Wednesday, August 29, 2018

Eye on Iran: Iran's Oil Exports Dropping Faster than Expected Before U.S. Sanctions



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TOP STORIES


Iran oil shipments are declining at a faster-than-expected pace ahead of U.S. sanctions set to begin in November.


Iran's Parliament summoned President Hassan Rouhani to answer questions on Tuesday about the country's economic crisis, and then voted to reject his explanation, in a remarkable rebuke of a sitting leader. Mr. Rouhani blamed United States sanctions, not government management, for his country's troubles.


France has told its diplomats and foreign ministry officials to postpone indefinitely all non-essential travel to Iran, citing a foiled bomb plot and a hardening of Tehran's attitude towards France, according to an internal memo seen by Reuters.

UANI IN THE NEWS


One area... where Trump's new policies have been aligned with European interests is in his policy on Iran. Trump's decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, promises to do more to protect the security of Europe than almost any decision made by Europe's own political leaders this year.

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM


Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran could abandon its nuclear accord with world powers after the U.S. withdrawal if it does not serve its interests, casting doubt on negotiations with European countries to salvage the deal.

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS


The United States on Tuesday defended its re-imposition of sanctions against Iran as a legal and justified national security measure that cannot be challenged by Tehran at the United Nations' highest court. 


Citizens in Iran are resorting to using the U.S. dollar as the government in Tehran faces increasing pressure from tightening U.S. sanctions and a faltering domestic economy, reports the WSJ's Asa Fitch. A steep plunge in the value of Iran's currency has led to a spike in demand for dollars in recent months from Iranians seeking safer assets.


Iraq will send a delegation to the United States seeking an agreement on financial transactions with Iran following Washington's reimposition of sanctions on Tehran, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on Tuesday.


India will not completely halt Iranian oil imports and will finalise its strategy on crude purchases from Tehran after a meeting with top U.S. officials next week, a senior government official said.


British officials have been turning to Japan for tips on how to dodge American sanctions on Iran, according to local media.


Iranians are fed up with collapsing economic prospects at the hands of what looks to them like systemic regime mismanagement... the authorities typically say they have a plan or are making changes to address these problems. Sometimes the plans materialize. Sometimes not. Either way, nothing changes. Meanwhile, it is difficult to know how much of Iran's economic malaise can be attributed to decades of sanctions, how much to government malfeasance and corruption - the latter being most often cited by people on the street - and how much is a result of good old-fashioned bureaucratic incompetence


Current U.S. sanctions on Iran are unlikely to stop Iranian oil exports completely, a long-time adviser at Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry said on Tuesday, adding Iran would be unable to close the straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab even partially.


"Move aside, animal!" the Iranian policewoman yells. The target of her rage: a young woman wearing her hijab, or headscarf, only loosely, thereby exposing her hair. For Iran's Basij, or morality police, it's a crime that warrants a violent response.


Iran's economy faces a bleak future under unprecedented US sanctions, the second package of which taking effect in November following the first package that was imposed this month. The Iranian currency has experienced a significant drop of 70 percent of its value in recent months, but this decline threatens to turn into a complete collapse as the new wave of US sanctions would hit the oil and gas sectors, which are vital to the Islamic Republic's economy.

PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS


Human rights activists in Iran have said they are worried about a man on hunger strike who was reportedly jailed for protesting against rules requiring women to wear a hijab. Farhad Meysami, 48, a doctor and publisher before becoming a civil activist, was arrested in his office in July and taken to Tehran's notorious Evin prison.


Since May 2018, revolutionary courts have sentenced at least 208 members of the religious minority to prison terms and other punishments in trials that violate their basic rights, Human Rights Watch said today.


The husband of a British-Iranian charity worker who has been imprisoned in Iran for more than two years says his wife has been hospitalized after suffering panic attacks.


In a nation where police arrest, interrogate and force women to make public apologies for posting "un-Islamic" selfies and "promiscuous" videos of themselves dancing on Instagram, 19-year-old Kimia Naderzadeh is not interested in testing the limits of laws that clearly treat her as vastly inferior to a man.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS


US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis stressed on Tuesday that Washington will hold Iran accountable for its actions in the Middle East.


"You give literally millions of dollars" in economic relief to Iran "and they don't stop their ballistic-missile testing, they don't stop selling arms, and they continue to support terrorism," Haley continued. "I look at [Iran] as the next North Korea. If you continue to fund this, and they continue to do these bad acts, and no one holds them accountable, we one day are going to be talking about Iran the same way we talk about North Korea."

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS


Security forces in Iran have arrested tens of spies working in state bodies, Intelligence Minister said on Tuesday, at a time of rising tensions between Iran and the West following the reimposition of U.S. sanctions on Tehran. 


Iran's intelligence minister has boasted on state television about his country's successful recruitment of a former Cabinet-level official from a "hostile" country, signaling Tehran's first acknowledgment of compromising an arrested Israeli official.

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS


Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, meeting with Rouhani and his cabinet on Wednesday, told the government to work "day and night" to resolve economic problems.


Iranian lawmakers launched impeachment proceedings against the education minister on Wednesday, ramping up pressure on the president who is under unprecedented attack from parliament over his handling of the economy in the face of new U.S. sanctions.


Iran's president attempted to explain to parliament on Tuesday how he would pull the country out of its economic nosedive, taking shots at the U.S. before lawmakers voted to reject his explanation. 


Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has drawn a social media backlash from Iranians for saying the pressures they face are a result of the life they have chosen to live. 


It is official: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is embattled and holding onto his position for dear life. What does this mean for which direction Iran will choose in the current nuclear standoff with the US? Will it fold and compromise, stick to its guns and start to violate the 2015 nuclear deal and maybe even make a dash for nuclear weapons, or might the regime finally get toppled?

RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN.


Iran will maintain its military presence in Syria despite U.S. pressure for its withdrawal, a senior Iranian official said on Tuesday, revealing more details about a military cooperation deal that Tehran and Damascus signed this week. 


The United States offered to leave Syria completely in exchange for a full withdrawal of Iranian troops from the southern part of the country, the Hezbollah-affiliated news outlet Al-Akhbar reported Tuesday... Syria's national security chief Ali Mamlouk reportedly rejected the US offer... He went on to say that President Bashar Assad had repeatedly made clear Syria's "strong relationship" with Iran, Hezbollah and other armed groups in the region.


The events of the past days in Syria have one thing in common: as the war in Syria is entering its final stages, a new battle is emerging. Both Russia and Iran, who supported the Assad regime throughout the civil war, are expecting to reap the benefits of Assad's victory.


The Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) begins on September 10 the trials of four members of the "Hezbollah" security apparatus accused of assassinating former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN


A local Yemeni official said that Iran had doubled its supply of arms to Houthi militias in Yemen during the suspension of the military operation to liberate Hodeidah. 


The already-controversial 2022 World Cup could yet become even more contentious, after Iran offered to help Qatar prepare for the football tournament... Iran's President Hassan Rouhani - under pressure at home due to the impact of U.S. sanctions on the economy - has been pushing for even closer cooperation. In a phone call with the Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani on August 26, Rouhani proposed the two countries set up a joint shipping line to promote bilateral trade.

OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS


Kurds who joined [the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK)] are from Iran but fled the Islamic Republic's repression, and found refuge in the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government areas of northern Iraq. According to PAK, four of their members have been targeted by Tehran in the last month.

CYBERWARFARE


An apparent Iranian influence operation targeting internet users worldwide is significantly bigger than previously identified, Reuters has found, encompassing a sprawling network of anonymous websites and social media accounts in 11 different languages.


Twitter has removed another batch of accounts from its platform for participating in what it calls 'coordinated manipulation.'






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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