Monday, January 28, 2019

Eye on Iran: France Tells Iran New Sanctions Loom If Missile Talks Fail



   EYE ON IRAN
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France is ready to impose further sanctions on Iran if no progress is made in talks over its ballistic missile program, the French foreign minister said on Friday. Jean-Yves Le Drian, who this week reiterated support for a European-backed system to facilitate non-dollar trade with Iran and circumvent U.S. sanctions, said France wanted to see Tehran rein in its missile activity. "We are ready, if the talks don't yield results, to apply sanctions firmly, and they know it," Le Drian told reporters. 


Iran is likely to expand its cyber espionage activities as its relations with Western powers worsen, the European Union digital security agency said on Monday. Iranian hackers are behind several cyber attacks and online disinformation campaigns in recent years as the country tries to strengthen its clout in the Middle East and beyond, a Reuters Special Report published in November found.


The Trump administration is closely eyeing efforts in Europe to set up an alternative money payment channel to ease doing business with Iran and avoid running afoul of sanctions the U.S. has levied on the Islamic republic. The White House is putting the Europeans on notice, saying that if they try to do an end-run around U.S. sanctions on Iran, they will be subject to stiff fines and penalties. Unfazed, the European Union is marching forward with the plan, which, if implemented, could further strain trans-Atlantic relations.
  
UANI IN THE NEWS


One year ago, Iranians of all stripes took to the streets en masse to express their grievances with the regime. While Tehran suppressed those demonstrations, protesters were undeterred, continuing such public gatherings throughout 2018. But while the Iranian people continue to risk their lives to publicly demand a better and freer future, the United States and Europe must do more to have their backs.


As the graph above shows, P2P trading website Localbitcoins.com saw record volume in Iran during December 2017, the month when the protests against the government started. Around the time when the U.S. ended the nuclear deal with the Iran, and it was predicted that the country's economy could fall into a death spiral, bitcoin trading again peaked. Volume on Localbitcoins.com has since been at its highest since the United Against Nuclear Iran summit in September 2018, which saw a number of countries push for regime change in the Islamic Republic.


The Hezbollah terror organization slammed the U.S. on Wednesday for recognizing the Venezuelan opposition under Juan Guaidó as the legitimate government - though Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, is active there and throughout Latin America. In a statement, Hezbollah reportedly condemned "blatant American intervention" and reiterated its support for the autocratic government of Nicolas Maduro, who succeeded strongman Hugo Chavez and has been crushing dissent.

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM


Nine months after the Trump administration pulled out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, it seems that the EU is finally holding a serious negotiation with Iran over its ballistic missile testing and global support of terrorism. Last week, France announced that it would impose new sanctions on the Islamic Republic if it did not make concessions regarding its ongoing ballistic missile tests.

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS  


Three European powers are set to make good on a plan to help companies trade with Iran, defying President Donald Trump with a bid to bypass U.S. sanctions. The entity, which could be presented as early as Monday, is key to the European Union's effort to save a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran after Trump withdrew the U.S. Whatever the economic impact, the push by the U.K., France and Germany is another sign of European exasperation with the president.


The Trump administration on Thursday took its first significant move against 2 of Iran's non-Arab Shiite militias in Syria with two different executive orders - one related to human rights and the other to terrorism. Both groups, the Fatemiyoun and Zeynabiyoun, support Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force (IRGC-QF), which was sanctioned over a decade ago but remains active across the Middle East.
  

Shut out of the global financial system, Iran is inching closer to a workaround to US sanctions with the possible unveiling of its first state-backed cryptocurrency in the near future. The virtual currency is anticipated to be announced at the annual two-day Electronic Banking and Payment Systems conference, which kicks off on January 29 in the capital, Tehran. The theme of this year's gathering is "blockchain revolution".

MISSILE PROGRAM


Iran said on Monday it was not holding talks with France over its ballistic missile development, after Paris said it was ready to impose more sanctions if European attempts to address the program in discussions with Tehran made no progress. "There has been no talks, whether secret or not secret, about our missile program with France or any other country," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi told a weekly news conference, broadcast live on state TV.

PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS


The Committee to Protect Journalists has called on Iran to stop persecuting journalists for their work after Tehran's Revolutionary Court sentenced Yashar Soltani to five years for his coverage of Tehran land deals. Mr Soltani, the editor-in-chief of Memari News, was investigating corruption in municipal real estate sales in the Iranian capital. He revealed that the mayor's office in Tehran illegally sold public land to political allies at discounted rates.


The lawyer of an Australian-based academic detained on charges of trying to "infiltrate" Iranian institutions said on Sunday she was freed a few days ago, Iran's state news agency reported. Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi, a population expert, is affiliated with the Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, according to the University of Melbourne's website.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS


The Trump administration is pushing to re-open a special investigation into the military dimensions of Iran's past nuclear work. But it's not gaining traction among the international officials who can make it happen. American officials have been ratcheting up pressure at the International Atomic Energy Agency in recent weeks, threatening new sanctions and advocating for more aggressive inspections, according to documents obtained by Bloomberg and interviews with diplomats.



The mystery over the incarceration of a Navy veteran in Iran last July deepened on Friday, when an Iranian prosecutor said that the case had been based on an "individual plaintiff" and that the prisoner might face security-related charges. The veteran, Michael R. White of Imperial Beach, Calif., is the first American to be imprisoned in Iran since the Trump administration took office two years ago.


The mother of a U.S. Navy veteran detained in Iran believes he has a recurrence of life-threatening cancer and she is calling for his immediate release to seek treatment, a spokesman said Friday. Joanne White based her belief that Michael White, 46, has cancer on "first-hand evidence provided to her by Iranian nationals who were incarcerated with Michael," spokesman Jonathan Franks said in a statement.

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS


Iran staged war games on Friday involving newly developed rapid redeployment units focused on fighting enemy aggressors and armed militants, state media reported, amid increased tensions with the United States and following a militant attack. Around 12,000 elite troops, armoured vehicles, fighter jets and drones were taking part in the two-day exercises, staged in the central province of Isfahan, state television said.


Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Bagheri announced on Sunday that Iran would change its defense strategy to "offensive" to defend its national interests. He stressed that his country will not remain idle against any threat, denying any ambitions to impose hegemony on the interests and territories of other countries.


Iranian leaders preach that nations should respect the sovereignty of other states and therefore should not interfere in the domestic affairs of Iran or its allies, such as Syria. Such statements appear to be pure rhetoric, as recent developments clearly reveal that the regime does not practice what it preaches. 
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS


Iran says Arab separatists have killed two policemen who were on patrol in the country's oil-rich south. The semi-official Fars news agency quoted police official Ali Ghasempour on Sunday as saying the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz, a "terrorist and separatist group," was behind the killings. The two policemen were shot dead early Saturday in the southern Khuzestan province.


Turbulent fluctuations in the value of the Iranian currency on the open market in 2018 led to the establishment of the Supreme Economic Coordination Council. Economic pundits at the time were of the opinion that this new body - bringing together the heads of the three branches of power - would prepare the ground for major and broad long-awaited economic reforms, as this entity was deemed to foster the convergence of uniform policymaking among the country's three branches of power to save the downbeat economy from tanking deeper.


While the clock is ticking for the deadline that the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has set for Iran to join international conventions combatting money laundering and financial assistance to terrorist organizations, Friday Prayer leaders have barraged President Hassan Rouhani's administration with criticism for insisting on compliance with international requirements.

RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN


The "axis of resistance" of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah could respond to Israeli strikes on Iran and Hezbollah in Syria with their own attack on Tel Aviv, Hezbollah's leader said on Saturday. They were deliberating a response to escalating Israeli strikes and could change their approach "at any moment" Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in an interview with al-Mayadeen TV.


The video shows a skier in a blue jacket slaloming down a slope before the camera pans upward, an ominous score playing in the background. "This is what families skiing on Mount Hermon in northern Israel saw when they looked up," reads the on-screen caption on a 37-second clip the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) posted to Twitter Monday, as two vapor trails cut across a dusky sky. "An Iranian rocket fired towards them from Syrian soil."


Immigration Minister Yoav Gallant on Saturday said Israel has a plan in place to expel Iranian forces from Syria, as Bloomberg reported Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is urging the United States to keep American troops at a base seen as essential to countering Iran. Gallant, a fresh addition to the ruling Likud party, did not provide further details but credited Israeli actions with preventing the emergence of an Iranian military presence in the Golan Heights.


German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Israeli public radio that it was "important and right" that Israel defends itself from Iranian forces in Syria. "Iran has policies that are threatening to Israel," Merkel told Kan Reka radio. Asked about recent Israeli airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria, she said "Israel must secure its existence."

GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN


United Nation Special Envoy to Yemen Martin Griffiths will kickstart the new round of peace efforts in the region in Sanaa, where he is scheduled to advise Houthi leaders against breaking the UN-brokered Stockholm agreement, the latest breakthrough in long-stalled Yemeni peace talks. This will be the Griffiths' third visit to Sanaa this month, in an effort aimed at convincing Houthis to agree to fully hand over the key port city of Hodeidah, as stipulated by the Stockholm agreement. Retreating and turning over the control of the strategic city comes as part of confidence-building measures between Yemeni warring parties.


Two residents were killed and several others injured when a house was bombed twice by the Houthi militia in Al-Sab'a Al-Olya village, south of Heis district in Hodeidah. One woman was killed and two of her children were seriously injured during the first bomb attack on the house, UAE state news agency WAM reported.


The foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, has agreed to attend a summit organised by the US in Warsaw originally billed as an alliance to confront Iranian aggression, but only on the condition that the US secretary of state hosts a meeting on Yemen on the summit's margins.

IRAQ & IRAN


Iraq must wean itself off economic reliance on Iran and become more energy self-sufficient, Britain's foreign office minister for the Middle East said on Sunday. Alistair Burt visited Iraq after a flurry of high-profile diplomacy in Baghdad this month that followed U.S. President Donald Trump's surprise announcement he was pulling American troops out of Syria. 

OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS    


Iran reacted angrily to Germany's announcement last Monday (Jan. 21) that it would ban Iranian airline Mahan Air from German airports, according to a report in Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency. "This measure is a blatant violation of all international rules, including the Chicago Convention, and there is no doubt that it has been adopted under the US pressures," said the head of the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization, Ali Abedzadeh, on Wednesday (Jan. 23).


Iran has accused France of being a destabilising force in the region after its foreign minister threatened new sanctions against Tehran over its missile programme. "The Islamic republic has always called for the strengthening of peace and stability in the region," the Iranian foreign ministry said in a statement released overnight Friday.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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