Friday, April 26, 2019

Eye on Iran: Iranian Minister Drops Offer To Free Zaghari-Ratcliffe In Swap



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Hopes that Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe might be released from a Tehran jail as part of a prisoner swap have suffered a setback after the Iranian foreign minister appeared to retract the proposal and the UK foreign secretary said he could not be party to any deal that presumed she was guilty of spying. Mohammad Javad Zarif specifically referred to Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian dual national held in Iran since April 2016, in a speech in New York on Wednesday in which he said he had the power to authorise her release in return for the freeing of an Iranian woman held in Australia.


South Korea will likely return to a familiar game plan to replace Iranian oil it will no longer have access to after May now that the United States intends to tighten sanctions on Iranian exports. South Korea is the biggest buyer of Iranian condensate, an ultra-light oil prized by the country's refiners as a raw material for petrochemicals manufacturing. SK Incheon Petrochem Co Ltd, Hyundai Oilbank Corp and Hanwha Total Petrochemical are set to once again scan the world for alternative, but more expensive, condensate supplies and snap up heavy naphtha oil products for their processing units, known as splitters, industry sources and analysts said.


President Donald Trump will not succeed in forcing Iran to capitulate to U.S. economic pressure because Tehran has a "Ph.D. in sanctions busting," Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said on Thursday. Speaking to reporters during a visit to New York, Iran's top diplomat also said his country would not seek a confrontation with the United States or try to cut off the Strait of Hormuz unless Washington succeeded in imposing a total economic blockade.

NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM


The US maximum pressure campaign on Iran includes sanctions to bring Iranian exports to zero, and designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization, but does not include prohibiting foreign companies from working on Iran's civilian nuclear reactors under the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal.


Joe Biden's key foreign policy role as Barack Obama's vice president and his record of support for Israel make him one of the candidates best positioned to defend the nuclear deal with Iran as he enters the 2020 presidential race today. Unlike his rivals, the former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee boasts a decades-long relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, potentially helping Biden to fend off Republican attacks against his support for Obama's signature foreign policy effort.

Mahmoud Sadeghi, an Iranian Reformist parliamentarian, has questioned the benefits of Iran staying in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear deal between Iran and five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany and the European Union, given the exit of the United States and Europe's inability to provide the promised economic dividends under the deal.

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS  

There is an Iranian proverb that goes, "You can tell a good year from its spring." Judging from the massive damage caused by the recent floods in Iran, one has to conclude that the new Iranian year (beginning March 21) will be a bad one for the economy. The economic consequence of the recent floods will include a minimum of $2.5 billion in direct damages and even more in indirect losses.


Iran's foreign ministry has said that Tehran will not allow any country to take away its share of the global oil market. The United States, which sanctioned Iranian oil exports in November, announced on April 22 that it will stop exemptions temporarily extended to a handful of countries for buying limited amounts of oil from Iran. Iran reacted harshly to the U.S. decision, since it will take more than a billion dollars of export revenues away from the battered Iranian economy.


While Washington fixates on the Mueller Report and the hordes entering the 2020 presidential race, the Trump administration is making a quiet, seismic shift in US foreign policy that will outlast arguments over tweets and impeachment. Foreign policy requires a combination of diplomacy, carrots and sticks - and sanctions, when employed strategically, can be a pretty effective stick. The textbook case is international financial pressure on South Africa that forced an end to apartheid and free elections.


Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, blasted new exemptions reportedly granted by the administration to recent sanctions against Iran. "These reports are deeply troubling," he said in a statement on Thursday. "I hope they are mistaken. "Any policy that includes significant exemptions and waivers is less than maximum pressure, and leaves the Ayatollahs with access to additional resources that they will use to undermine the security of America and our allies, to build up their nuclear and ballistic missile programs..."

MISSILE PROGRAM


Mehr news agency in Iran says Iran has "designed and manufactured" three new types of missiles. According to Mehr, the three air-launched missiles are Heydar, Qamar Bani Hashem, and Dehlavieh. The missiles have been developed by the Iranian Ministry of Defense in collaboration with the army's Helicopter Unit, the report said. Mehr reported the range of these missiles as eight kilometres, adding that they are capable of carrying searching devices.

TERRORISM & EXTREMISM


The newly appointed Commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps Hossein Salami has called to expand the group's operations against its "enemies", local media reported. "The Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards has crossed mountains and plains to end America's dominance in the eastern Mediterranean, and reached the Red Sea, and turned the Islamic land to land of jihad," he said. "We have to expand our capabilities from the region to the world, so the enemy has no safe point around the world," he added.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS


Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has confirmed that he has received a letter from U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Robert C. O'Brien. During his ongoing visit to New York, Zarif has repeatedly said that he did not receive any response to his call for a prisoners swap with the United States. He repeated once again on Thursday April 25 during a meeting with reporters at the UN headquarters that he is willing to discuss a prisoner exchange with America.


Iran's foreign minister said a small group of Middle Eastern and U.S. officials is trying to steer President Trump into a conflict with Tehran in the hope of undermining Iran's influence in the region. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif insisted Thursday that Iran wasn't seeking a military confrontation with Washington. He said he didn't think President Trump was eager for a conflict either.


This week, Iran's foreign minister returned to the city that he once called home, and he made his old neighbor, Donald Trump, an offer that the president can't refuse. At the Asia Society on Wednesday, Mohammad Javad Zarif - who worked in Iran's United Nations mission for years and professes to feel most comfortable in New York - made clear his readiness to complete a swap with the United States for Americans held in Iran, in exchange for Iranians held here.

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS


Director-General of Intelligence Ministry's Office in East Azarbaijan province, northwest Iran, says sixty individuals, who had contacts with the dissident group Mojahedin Khalq Organizations (MKO), have been arrested in the past year. The intelligence official introduced as Qodtrat Diyalameh said on Wednesday, April 24, that the MKO members taking advantage of the recent economic and social problems in the country, expanded their activities during last Iranian year (March 21, 2017-March 20, 2018). "MKO members were looking for weapons and ammunition to disturb the security in the province, before being captured," Diyalameh maintained. He also said another fifty members of the MKO were also identified and "restrained."


Iranian police are using text messaging to warn female drivers and passengers who take off their hijab (scarves) or ignore the Islamic dress code while driving or riding in cars. Hundreds of women in the capital city of Tehran recently received phone text messages, summoning them to the "Morality Police" station. After days of uncertainty about the origin of the messages, finally police announced the messages are official warnings.

RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN



Russian President Vladimir Putin says he will meet with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Iranian President Hassan Rohani at a summit in Russia during August. Putin made the announcement to journalists in Beijing on April 26 after meeting with Aliyev on the sidelines of China's so-called Belt and Road forum - an initiative aimed at building trade and transportation infrastructure that links China with South and Central Asia, Europe, and Africa.


Israel's raids and various military operations in Syria, as well as the economic situation in Iran, prompted Tehran to give up a large part of its plans and limit its objectives in Syria, according to Israeli intelligence sources. The sources said that Iran did not change its strategic objectives in the region, but it had to "let go" of some of these objectives. At the same time, Tehran increased its expectations in Iraq to overcome the decline of its status in Syria.


"When I shot the woman," Yahya Haj Hamed told investigators, "I saw there were three or four children in the car, but I didn't fire in their direction. We got back into our car and drove off." Yahya, a member of a Hamas terror cell, had already "fired in the direction" of the woman's husband, the children's father, "who was killed on the spot." The killings in October 2015 of Eitam and Na'ama Henkin, to avenge an arson attack on the home of a Palestinian family, made headlines around the world.

GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN


The United States urged Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia to end the mistreatment of members of the Baha'i faith, as Houthi court sentenced believer to death on "absurd" allegations. The Baha'i community said that Hamed bin Haydara, who has been detained since 2013, will face an appeal hearing on Tuesday in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa. The US State Department said it was "deeply concerned" that the Houthis have targeted dozens of Baha'is and voiced alarm over accounts that Haydara has endured "physical and psychological torture." "This persistent pattern of vilification, oppression and mistreatment by the Houthis of Baha'is in Yemen must end," State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said in a statement.

OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS


Britain has rejected a prisoner-swap proposal by Iran's foreign minister, calling it a "vile" diplomatic maneuver. British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt on April 25 said "what is unacceptable about what Iran is doing is that they are putting innocent people in prison and using it as leverage." The previous day, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif suggested a swap between Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian citizen who is in prison in Tehran after being convicted of sedition, and Negar Ghodskani, an Iranian citizen being held in Australia on a U.S. extradition warrant.







Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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