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TOP STORIES
"The White House announced on Sunday that the
United States was sending an aircraft carrier strike group and Air
Force bombers to the Middle East because of "troubling and
escalatory indications and warnings" related to Iran. The
deployment was intended "to send a clear and unmistakable
message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States
interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting
force," said John R. Bolton, the national security adviser,
in a statement released Sunday night."
The Trump administration is reportedly expected to
announce additional sanctions on Iran within the coming week. The
sanctions, which are slated to be announced Wednesday, will
significantly impact a new sector of the Iranian
economy, Axios reported Sunday, citing two senior
administration officials. They did not tell the news outlet which
sector would be affected, but said it will not be energy.
Iran says it will continue uranium enrichment and heavy
water production despite U.S. pressure on the country to end it.
State TV quotes Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani as saying Saturday
that under the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers,
Tehran has the right to continue developing uranium enrichment and
heavy-water production. "Under the deal, we have not done
anything wrong. We continue enriching," he says.
UANI IN THE NEWS
In recent years, the myth of moderation has become a
go-to refrain for those who have built careers out of making excuses
for the Iranian regime. But the mullahcracy in Tehran has continued
its decadeslong history of trampling on human rights. That regime's
recent imprisonment of celebrated lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh and
execution of teenagers Mehdi Sohrabifar and Amin Sedaghat should
dispel any doubts about how this regime operates and what it values.
A robust response consisting of an economic boycott and diplomatic
isolation is required.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Iran signaled that it may scale down on its commitments
as part of the 2015 nuclear deal to retaliate against an exit by the
U.S. from the international accord and the Trump's administration's
reimposition of sanctions. While leaving the nuclear deal isn't on
the agenda, Iran is set to introduce minor and general reductions on
some of its commitments, an Iranian official involved with the deal's
implementation was cited as saying by the state-run Iranian News
Agency.
The United States has tightened restrictions
on Iran's nuclear programme by revoking two key sanctions waivers in
a bid to force Tehran to stop producing low-enriched uranium and
expanding its only nuclear power plant. The two waivers - one
that allowed Iran to store excess heavy water produced in the uranium
enrichment process in Oman, and another that
allowed Iran to swap enriched uranium for mined uranium
"yellowcake" with Russia - were not renewed, the
State Department said on Friday.
The European Union, France, Germany and the U.K.
expressed concern about the American decision not to extend waivers
on oil trade with Iran and not to fully renew waivers for nuclear
non-proliferation projects. "We deeply regret the re-imposition
of sanctions by the United States following their withdrawal"
from the Iran nuclear deal, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action, the EU's foreign policy chief and foreign minsters of France,
German and the U.K. said in a statement on Saturday.
One of Iran's greatest diplomatic achievements in recent
years was getting the world to recognize its right to enrich uranium
suitable for nuclear fuel. The Trump administration has now
undermined it. On Friday, the State Department renewed some
exemptions to U.S. sanctions on Iran's nuclear activities and
ended others. The renewals initially attracted more
attention than the terminations.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
The United States' allies in Europe have criticized its
recent decisions to restrict oil trade with Iran and to limit the
extension of waivers for nuclear non-proliferation
projects. "We ... take note with regret and concern of the
decision by the United States not to extend waivers with regards to
trade in oil with Iran," Britain's foreign office said in a
joint statement with its German and French counterparts and the
European Union.
Iran has mobilized all its resources to sell oil in a
"grey market", bypassing U.S. sanctions that Tehran sees as
illegitimate, state media quoted Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein
Zamaninia as saying on Sunday. The United States, which last
year withdrew from a 2015 Iran nuclear deal with world powers, has
told buyers of Iranian oil to stop purchases by May 1 or face
sanctions.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani appointed a new chief
for the national carrier, Iran Air, the country's state media
reported on Monday. The state-owned IRAN daily said the decision to
name Touraj Zanganeh the CEO of the airline was made during a Cabinet
meeting on Sunday night. Zanganeh succeeds Farzaneh Sharafbafi, who
was the first female CEO of Iran Air and who was in the post since
2017. The report did not elaborate on the reason for the replacement.
Iran's offshore oil production hasn't seen any reduction
and the country just loaded crude for export, said Hamid Bovard, head
of the Iranian Offshore Oil Co. It loaded the latest batch of crude
from its offshore fields for export three days ago, Bovard said at a
press conference, without elaborating on the volume or the
destination. Exports are underway as planned, he said. The U.S.
government terminated waivers allowing a handful of countries to buy
Iranian crude in an effort to reduce Iran's critical oil exports to
zero.
In July 2015, after more than a decade of on-and-off
negotiations, world powers reached a nuclear deal with Iran.
Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Iran agreed to
eliminate its stockpile of enriched uranium and reduce centrifuges.
In return, all UN Security Council and multilateral sanctions were
lifted. But not everyone was happy with the deal, including Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said the deal was a
"stunning historic mistake", as well as US Republican
presidential candidates at the time.
President Trump and his aides say the outcome of
their confrontation with Iran is already clear: They're
winning. Iran has fallen into a deep recession; its economy may
shrink 6% this year. Inflation is heading toward 40%, and the
nation's currency has virtually collapsed. Newly tightened oil
sanctions have deprived the Tehran government of at least $10 billion
in revenue.
"The best strategy is always to be very strong,
first generally, then at the decisive point," as the 19th
Century Prussian military thinker Carl von Clausewitz observed. In
the US-Iran oil confrontation, four powers really matter. Each have
their strengths and weaknesses, but is any strong enough for a
decisive victory? The struggle between the US and its oil-exporting
Gulf Arab allies on one side, Iran on the other, its key customer
China and various other concerned players is waged on numerous
battlegrounds...
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
A top Iran resistance group is calling on European
nations to shut down Tehran's embassies in response to the regime's
alleged use of embassies to plot terror attacks against its political
opponents across the continent -- as the Trump administration ramps
up sanctions against the Islamic republic led by President Hassan
Rouhani. "What we are calling for is closing the Iranian
regime's embassies," National Council of Resistance of Iran Deputy
Director Alireza Jafarzadeh told reporters at a news conference in
Washington, D.C. this week. "These diplomatic relations have
allowed the regime to plot terrorist attacks and assassinations in
the West."
An Iranian newspaper says one of its reporters was
detained by police earlier this week while she was covering a protest
marking International Workers' Day, in which dozens of labor
activists were also arrested. The pro-reform Shargh newspaper said
Saturday that Marzieh Amiri was detained at a demonstration outside
the Iranian parliament in Tehran. It said authorities detained some
30 protesting workers including two workers' leaders, Reza Shahabi
and Hassan Saeedi.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
The Trump administration plans to target a new sector of
the Iranian economy with significant new sanctions this week, two
senior administration officials told me, speaking anonymously because
they were not authorized to reveal the new sanctions. The officials
would not say what sector the administration will target, but it
won't be the energy sector. The administration will likely announce
this new wave of sanctions on Wednesday - marking the one year
anniversary of President Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear
deal.
President Trump has made no secret of his desire to
isolate and impoverish Iran. After withdrawing last year from the
nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration and five other
nations, Mr. Trump launched his campaign of "maximum
pressure" designed to change Iran's behavior - and perhaps its
leadership. Mr. Trump dialed up the heat again this
week by lifting waivers that had allowed eight countries
(including China, India, South Korea and Turkey) to continue
importing limited quantities of Iranian oil.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was in New
York on the pretext of attending UN meetings but used the opportunity
to visit US media, intellectual and research institutions in an
attempt to induce the elites there to agree with his country's
stance. However, the truth is that Zarif needed this visit to fix his
broken image inside Iran itself. The foreign minister wanted to prove
that he is a "shrewd dealer" who can make the West buy
anything - as he did with the EU and the Barack Obama administration
in the past.
MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS
IRGC Commander Hossein Salami says Iran is engaged in an
"intelligence war" and that the "Iranian Intelligence
community" is active around the clock. "We are engaged in a
serious global intelligence war with the enemies around the
clock," said the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) commander
during a meeting with Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi and his
deputies.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran's semi-official ISNA news agency says President
Hassan Rouhani's brother has been sentenced to an unspecified prison
term for corruption. ISNA said Saturday that Hossein Fereidoun, a
close confidante of the president, will be able to appeal the verdict.
The financial misconduct charges date back to 2016, and were brought
by hard-liners who dominate the country's judiciary. Rouhani, a
relative moderate within Iran's political system, changed his surname
decades ago.
Iran's religious leaders have been moving to expand
their influence over the Shiite Muslim establishment in neighboring
Iraq in a gamble aimed at gaining sway over Iraq's largest religious
group. The Iranian campaign is most apparent here in the holy city of
Najaf, home to Iraq's clerical hierarchy and a gateway to the wider
Shiite population, which represents about two-thirds of all Iraqis.
A fire broke out at an oil pipeline in southwest Iran
after an accident on Monday and is under control, the Tasnim news
agency reported. The fire started when a construction loader
vehicle collided with a pipeline during an attempt to repair a
section of it between the cities of Ahvaz and Omidiyeh, Tasnim
reported, citing local official Kiamars Hajizadeh.
The Islamic Republic Attorney General has once again
lambasted what he called "out of control cyberspace",
describing two popular messaging apps, Telegram and Instagram, as
"infernal," and called for restrictions on social media.
The ultraconservative mid-ranking clergyman Mohammad Jafar Montazeri
also explicitly threatened the Minister of Information and
Communications Technology, Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi, with
judicial consequences.
Iran's education minister pledged May 3 to "make
sure" not to implement UNESCO's 2030 education agenda, after
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attacked the international accord on May
1. Education Minister Mohammad Bathayi echoed Khamenei's wrods, saying
he will not implement an agenda which aims to alter "national
and religious identity" and bring foreign influences.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Hezbollah's control over Lebanon's governmental
institutions will turn the country into an "axis of
resistance", with Beirut's foreign policy now being dictated by
one party's views, Sami Gemayel, the head of Lebanon's Kataeb
opposition party, told Al Arabiya in an exclusive interview. Speaking
to Al Arabiya's Reema al-Maktabi, Gemayel said that Lebanon today is
"aligned with the Iran-Hezbollah-Bashar al-Assad axis",
adding that several political parties "agreed to electing
Hezbollah's candidate as president of the republic and to then manage
political life under a clear ceiling which is not to discuss
Hezbollah's weapons."
Militant groups in Gaza said Monday they had reached a
cease-fire with Israel after two days of the deadliest fighting since
the 2014 war. Israel lifted security restrictions in the south near
Gaza in a sign that it expected calm, though it didn't officially
confirm the truce. Four Israelis and 27 Palestinians were killed
since Friday evening after militants launched nearly 700 rockets, and
Israel said it hit more than 350 military targets in Gaza in
response.
A photo of Lebanese Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil
carrying a rocket presented to him by Hezbollah officials during his
visit to the city of Jbeil north of Beirut sparked wide controversy
and condemnations in the country. The rocket, a remnant of the
party's battle with Al-Nusra Front in the Arsal border region in
2017, was offered to Bassil during a visit to the town of Ras Osta in
the Jbeil district. The rocket was carrying the flags of
the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), which is headed by Bassil, and
Hezbollah, along with a phrase that read: "Greetings of
appreciation and love to His Excellency the Resistant Minister Jebran
Bassil."
Iran's Foreign Ministry on Sunday condemned what it
called Israel's "savage" attack on Gaza, and blamed
"unlimited U.S. support" for Israel, the semi-official Fars
news agency reported. "Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas
Mousavi said Iran strongly condemned the Zionist regime's (Israel)
savage attack ... which martyred and wounded dozens of Palestinians,
including women and children," Fars reported.
The Israeli government has announced that in a targeted
attack a man who had been helping transfer millions of dollars from
Iran to Gaza militants was killed. Israeli tweets in Persian and
Arabic identified the person as Hammed Ahmad al-Khudari (Ghudari) ,
who apparently was a senior Hamas military field commander. The
Israeli government has also published the photo of a demolished car,
in which it said al-Khudari was killed in.
IRAQ & IRAN
The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) will open an
office in Iraq, the semi-official Fars News Agency said on
Saturday. The new office "will facilitate cooperation in
the oil industry and the transfer of engineering and technical
services" to Iraq, it said. The announcement comes as Iran
faces U.S. sanctions on its oil exports.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani signed a law last
week labeling U.S. military forces in the Middle East a
terrorist organization. This step follows the
U.S. designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
(IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization. For some, setting aside
the irony of Tehran's declaration, this may confirm fears that the
designation of the IRGC would spark a dangerous escalation. In
reality, history suggests that calling adversaries and terrorists by
name is not the primary danger.
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