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TOP STORIES
The United States is set to announce this week it will
renew sanctions waivers for five Iran nuclear programs that allow
Russia, China and European countries to continue civilian nuclear
cooperation with Iran, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday.
President Donald Trump, in an Oval Office meeting last week, sided
with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who argued for renewing the
waivers over objections by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and
national security adviser John Bolton, the Post said.
The U.S. has officially asked Germany to help secure the
strategic Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran in the midst of
heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf region. The U.S. embassy in
Berlin on Tuesday asked "Germany to join France and the UK to
help secure the Straits of Hormuz and combat Iranian
aggression." The embassy said Germany agrees the waterway should
be protected, and it posed the question "protected by
whom?"
Iranian oil exports have dropped in July to as low as
100,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to sanctions and rising tension
with the United States and Britain, according to an industry source
and tanker data, deepening global supply losses.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
As tensions escalate in the Persian Gulf, U.S.
presidential candidates from the Democratic Party are staking out
positions on the 2015 deal whereby Iran limited its nuclear program
in exchange for sanctions-relief. U.S. president Donald Trump, who is
running for reelection in 2020 against a large slate of Democrats, in
2018 withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action nuclear deal, a signature accomplishment of former U.S.
president Barack Obama.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
Oil extended its longest rally in three weeks as
lingering Iran tensions stoke concerns over the stability of Middle
East energy flows, while U.S. crude stockpiles continue to tighten.
Futures rose as much as 0.8% in New York after gaining 3.9% in the
past four sessions. Iran has reached a deal with Russia to
hold a joint military drill in the Indian Ocean by March 2020,
semi-official Fars News reported, citing the commander of the Iranian
navy.
The Trump administration is poised to renew waivers that
allow Iran to receive international assistance for civilian nuclear
projects, after a heated internal debate over whether to
dismantle a key element of the 2015 nuclear deal, according to three
sources familiar with the matter. In what would be a setback for Iran
hawks, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and other administration
officials appeared to prevail in the policy argument against national
security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the
sources told NBC News.
Two vessels carrying Iranian LPG or liquid gas involved
in Iran-China deliveries were detained in Singapore on July 22 and
24, a ship-tracking source has told Radio Farda. The ships belong to
Kunlun Shipping, a private Hong Kong company with a fleet of LPG
vessels carrying Iranian-sourced cargoes. The detention of the
vessels is related to U.S. sanctions banning export of Iranian oil
and gas and a direct result of a court order.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Recent statements by Mostafa Pourmohammadi, advisor to
Iran's head of the judiciary, defending the mass extrajudicial
executions of 1988 is a stark reminder of the sense of impunity that
senior officials linked to the killings enjoy, Amnesty International (AI)
said Tuesday, July 30. A former minister of justice, Pourmohammadi
was a member of a mid-ranking clergy quartet who ordered the
execution of thousands of prisoners who were serving their sentences
in 1988.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
Iran has dismissed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's
offer to visit and address the Iranian people as a
"hypocritical gesture." "You don't need to come
to Iran," Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on the
sidelines of a Cabinet meeting Wednesday, in remarks directed at
Pompeo. He suggested Pompeo instead grant visas for Iranian reporters
to travel to the U.S. and interview him, accusing him of having
rejected their requests.
French President Emmanuel Macron has called for tensions
between Iran and the United States to be scaled down on July 30 after
speaking with Iranian President Hassan Rohani. Meeting at the French
presidential summer retreat, Macron said he wanted "to ensure
that all parties agree to a break and open negotiations." He
"recalled the need to initiate a de-escalation of
tensions."
Since the 1979 revolution, a key part of Iran's regional
strategy has been the funding of militias, rebels and political
organizations in its neighboring countries. Iran has significant
ties to Hezbollah, a Shiite Islamist political party and militant
group in Lebanon that is considered a terrorist group by the United
States and several other nations. Tehran has leveraged Hezbollah to
intervene in Syria on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,
another Iranian ally.
"Just remember, the Iranians never won a war, but
never lost a negotiation!" It has all the hallmarks of
the perfect Donald Trump tweet. First, it is factually
incorrect: Iran is a civilization going back thousands of years, and
has more military victories in its history than the American
president has had hot breakfasts. Second, it is more than a little
racist, winking at the Orientalist stereotype of Iranians as cunning
negotiators, forever trying to cheat Westerners looking for a bargain
on a Shirazi carpet.
The plot of the latest escalation in the Gulf involving
the United States, the United Kingdom and Iran
seems increasingly repetitive like a badly written political
thriller. On May 12, shortly after the secondary US sanctions kicked
in, forcing many countries to reconsider their dealings with Iran,
four commercial vessels were attacked off the coast of
the United Arab Emirates. A month later, two tankers
were hit by explosions in the Gulf of Oman. The US and the
UK accused Iran of perpetrating the attacks, Iran denied.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran's cabinet has approved a plan to slash four zeros
from the national currency, the rial, the official Islamic Republic
News Agency reported Wednesday, citing government spokesman Ali
Rabiei. The redenomination of the currency has been discussed for
years as the rial's value has plummeted. Rabiei did not specify
whether the plan requires parliamentary support or when it would take
effect.
Iran's defence minister said on Wednesday it was
"normal" for the country to test missiles as part of its
defence research, Iranian media reported, after Washington said
Tehran had test-fired a medium-range missile last week. Brigadier
General Amir Hatami stopped short of explicitly confirming the test.
A U.S. defence official said last week Iran had launched what
appeared to be a medium-range ballistic missile that travelled some
1,000 km (620 miles), and added that the test by Washington's arch-foe
in the Middle East posed no threat to shipping or U.S. personnel in
the region.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Russia and Iran are deepening their military ties in a
joint challenge to perceived US hegemony in the Middle East. The
Russian Defense Ministry and the General Staff of the Iranian Armed
Forces signed a memorandum of understanding that seeks to expand
military ties between the two countries on Monday during Iranian Navy
Commander Hossein Khanzadi's three-day visit to St. Petersburg.
Iran and Russia are planning a joint military drill in
the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, the Commander of the
Iranian Navy, Rear Admiral Hossein Khanzadi, told state
news agency IRNA. According to Khanzadi, the Iranian armed forces had
signed a contract for the drills with the Russian Ministry of
Defense, but did not say when the drills will be carried out. In any
case, the news clearly points towards a continued warming of
bilateral relations amid increasing U.S. pressure on both countries,
particularly Iran.
The IAF used its F-35i stealth fighter jets to hit two
Iraqi bases that were used by Iranian forces and proxies and for
storing ballistic missiles, the London-based Saudi daily Asharq
Al-Awsat reported on Tuesday. The first attack happened on
July 19 at a base in Amerli in the Saladin province north of Baghdad.
Iraqi and Iranian sources blamed Israel at the time, and Asharq
Al-Awsat reported that "diplomatic sources" confirmed the
attack, specifying that it was carried out by an Israeli F-35.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini last
week touted Iran's support for the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas.
He said the way to counter the so-called "deal of the
century" peace plan of the Trump administration would be to give
Palestinians a "feeling of progress," offering that
"not many years ago, the Palestinians were fighting with stones,
but today ... they are equipped with precision rockets, and this
means a feeling of progress."
CHINA & IRAN
Following the steep decline of Iranian oil exports after
the U.S. ended all waivers for Iran's oil buyers, Iran
is calling on China and other 'friendly countries', as it
put it, to buy more crude oil from the Islamic Republic. "Even
though we are aware that friendly countries such as China are facing
some restrictions, we expect them to be more active in buying Iranian
oil," Iranian Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri was quoted as
saying by Iranian media. Jahangiri was meeting with Song Tao, Head of
the International Liaison Department of the Communist Party of China,
in Tehran this week.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
United Arab Emirates officials traveled to Iran to
discuss maritime security in the Persian Gulf with their
counterparts, amid efforts to address threats to commercial ships
passing through the important oil supply route that
have heightened regional tensions. The two country's coast
guards discussed maritime border cooperation and the flow of shipping
traffic, including illegal movements, according to Iranian state-run
media.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
The unified European approach to resolving tensions in
the Persian Gulf showed signs of strain, with senior German officials
warning that the U.K. may be drifting closer to an American-led
operation that had previously been rebuffed by governments in Paris
and London. While Germany stands by its resistance to use military
forces to protect shipping in the region, Boris Johnson's rise to
become British prime minister last week could put the European
Union's stance in jeopardy.
The commander of a British warship accompanying
UK-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened
tensions with Iran said Wednesday that Tehran appeared to be testing
the Royal Navy's resolve. William King, commander of HMS Montrose,
said during 27 days patrolling the flashpoint entrance to the Gulf he
had had 85 "interactions with Iranian forces", which had
often led to "an exchange of warnings" over radio.
There is "growing concern" for the crew of a
British-flagged tanker seized by Iran in the Gulf, its owners say.
The 23 crew members are confined to the vessel, which is moored off
the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, Stena Bulk and Northern Marine
Management said. The vessel seizure came amid heightened tensions
between Iran and the UK. Tehran said Stena Impero was "violating
international maritime rules" at the time but the UK called the
incident an example of "state piracy".
The UK's new government is at risk of squandering
an opportunity to "recalibrate" tense relations
with Iran amid the standoff over seized oil tankers,
according to analysts. Experts fear Boris Johnson, the new prime
minster, will fall in behind US President Donald Trump's hostile
US stance towards Tehran, despite an opportunity for Britain to forge
an influential position as a broker following its withdrawal from
the European Union.
Iran's ambassador to the United Kingdom has signaled
little progress toward a negotiated settlement to a standoff over
captured oil tankers. "Impossible to advance a quid pro quo or
barter exchange of detained UK and Iranian ships," Hamid Baeidinejad tweeted
July 29. Baeidinejad reaffirmed Tehran's official line that the UK
detention of the Iranian vessel Grace 1 off Gibraltar was
"illegal" while Iran's capture of the Stena Impero was
a response to violations of "some key safety/security
regulations" by the British-flagged ship in the Strait of
Hormuz, the strategic maritime pathway for 20% of global oil.
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