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TOP STORIES
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has reiterated that
his country will keep the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf open
to maritime traffic, amid high tensions with the Islamic Republic of
Iran. In a talk at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. on July 29,
Pompeo responded to a question about the U.S. commitment to keep the
vital waterway open at any cost militarily, saying, "We are
gonna keep it open", adding, "We are going to build up a
maritime security plan.
Britain on Monday ruled out swapping seized oil tankers
with Iran as a second UK warship arrived in the Gulf to conduct
convoys that have irritated Tehran. A sense of crisis in the world's
busiest oil shipping lane has been building up for weeks as Iran
responds to US President Donald Trump's "maximum pressure"
campaign.
As tensions heat up with Iran and North
Korea over nuclear weapons, a majority of registered
voters thinks the rogue nations pose a risk to the country's
safety. Sixty percent say North Korea poses a real national security
threat to the U.S. - and an equal number think the same of Iran.
"What's interesting here is the stability of threat
perception," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts
the Fox News Poll along with Democrat Chris Anderson.
UANI IN THE NEWS
On its thirteen anniversary, UN Security Council
Resolution 1701-intended to degrade and disarm the Lebanese militant
group Hezbollah-is no closer to fulfilment than on the day it was
passed. To the contrary, Hezbollah is now stronger, while the
Lebanese government-the party primarily responsible for implementing
1701-continues to passively permit the group's military build-up.
Beirut's dereliction is not solely a result of intransigence. Rather,
Lebanese sectarianism, and Hezbollah's political alliances and
entrenchment among Shias make 1701 inherently unworkable. Instead of
admitting this, the international community and the parties most
concerned-namely Lebanon and Israel-continue fostering the illusion
of 1701's efficacy. Rather than making war less likely, this
guarantees its inevitability.
Russian and Chinese military aircraft probed South
Korean and Japanese air defenses last week, leading the South Koreans
to fire more than 300 warning shots before the intruders departed.
This was just the latest manifestation of a deepening alliance
between Russia and China. James Dobbins, Howard Shatz and Ali Wyne
described the emerging alignment in an April essay in the Diplomat.
In 2016, Russia displaced Saudi Arabia as China's largest source of
imported oil. In 2017, the two countries held their first joint naval
exercise in the Baltic Sea. In June 2018, Xi Jinping called Vladimir
Putin "my best, most intimate friend," and later that year
Chinese forces participated in the largest military exercise on
Russian soil since 1981.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
The new UK government led by Prime Minister Boris
Johnson expressed continued support for the Iran nuclear deal at a
crisis meeting of international powers trying to save the 2015
accord. The signal of support from the more populist Johnson
government takes place as the deal has come under mounting
strain after President Donald Trump withdrew from it last
year and reimposed crippling sanctions. Iran, in response, more
recently said it would take steps to reduce its compliance every two
months until the deal's other parties delivered on the sanctions
relief promised in the accord, formally known as the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Iran has enriched 24 tons of uranium since signing the
2015 JCPOA nuclear deal, said the head of the Atomic Energy
Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, on Sunday, according to Radio
Farda. Tehran claimed that it had limited its stock of enriched uranium
to 300 kg. as required by the JCPOA. Salehi has not explained exactly
what he meant by his statement or what happened to the 24 tons of
enriched uranium.
These days our fears, being spoilt for choice, can take
many shapes and sizes. Mine have settled on a vague image of an
ill-fated stash - a giant heap of trouble. Is the age of the terrible
stockpile upon us? The stockpile exudes foreboding. Recently Iran
confirmed that its uranium stockpile had exceeded the limit
originally set by the 2015 nuclear deal. You'll also remember this concept
- as mundane as a store cupboard, as frightening as a cache of
semi-automatics...
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
Iranian Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri called on China
and other countries friendly with Iran on Monday to buy more Iranian
oil, the oil ministry news website SHANA reported, as Chinese imports
plunged after U.S. sanctions took effect. "Even though we
are aware that friendly countries such as China are facing some
restrictions, we expect them to be more active in buying Iranian
oil," SHANA quoted Jahangiri as telling visiting senior Chinese
diplomat Song Tao.
Taha Shakouri keeps finding remote corners to play in at
a Tehran children's charity hospital, unaware that his doctors are
running out of chemo medicine needed to treat the eight-year-old
boy's liver cancer. With Iran's economy in free fall after the U.S.
pullout from the nuclear deal and escalated sanctions on Tehran,
prices of imported medicines have soared as the national currency
tumbled about 70% against the dollar.
An Iranian ship called Bavand, which had been at the
heart of a geopolitical spat between Brasilia and Tehran, set sail
from Brazil on Monday after receiving fuel from state-run Petroleo
Brasileiro, the port of Paranaguá said. Meanwhile, a second Iranian
ship, the Termeh, which set sail from Paranaguá port two days ago,
was on Monday heading to the southern Brazilian port of Imbituba,
where it is due to pick up a shipment of corn before heading back to
Iran.
The Iranian minister of health and medical education,
Saeed Namaki, has a big problem with Twitter. In an interview with
the Iranian Labor News Agency, he claimed that his opponents pay
$4,000 for each tweet critical of him and the Health Ministry. Even
his relatives have become a target for his opponents, he alleged, for
no other reason than that he had begun to address corruption inside
his ministry. According to Namaki, more than $1.3 billion earmarked
for the import of medical equipment has "disappeared" and
no one knows who is at fault.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
Iranians sending images to a U.S.-based activist over an
anti-headscarf campaign could face up to 10 years in prison. The
activist, Masih Alinejad, founded the "White Wednesdays''
campaign in Iran to encourage women to post photographs of themselves
without headscarves online as a way of opposing the compulsory hijab.
The semi-official Fars news agency on Monday quoted the head of the
Tehran Revolutionary Court, Mousa Ghazanfarabadi, as saying that
"those who film themselves or others while removing the hijab
and send photos to this woman ... will be sentenced to between one
and 10 years in prison.''
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's offer for an
interview with Iran's state TV has been met with positive reaction of
a number of Iranian officials, who see this as an opportunity to
challenge Pompeo. While limiting Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif's movements in New York, Pompeo told The Washington Post
he would accept any offer to go on Iranian television and
address Iranians to
say "we care deeply about them - that we're
supportive of the Iranian people, that we understand that the
revolutionary theocracy is not acting in a way that is in their best
interest."
So far the Trump administration has been as
dependable as a Rolex. When global actors threaten American
interests, Trump takes notice. Washington then pressures with
one hand and offers an off-ramp with the other. Iran is a case in
point. Secretary of State Pompeo just renewed the U.S. offer to renew
negotiations without preconditions. He even offered to jump on a
plane to Tehran. Only time will tell if they take him up on his
offer.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Iran's state TV says a former mayor of Tehran who also
served as one of the country's vice presidents was sentenced to death
for killing his wife. Tuesday's report quotes judiciary spokesman
Gholamhossein Esmaili as saying that Mohammad Ali Najafi was convicted
of fatally shooting his wife, Mitra Ostad. The verdict can be
appealed within 20 days. Police detained Najafi in May, after he went
to authorities and confessed to the killing. At the time, officials
said Najafi and Ostad, his second his wife, were having domestic
problems.
The spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry says
Mohammad Javad Zarif has complained in a letter to Khamenei about the
way his character was depicted in a controversial series on state TV.
Abbas Mousavi told the press in Tehran on Monday July 29 that the TV
series Gando aired during June and July has portrayed a disparaging
image of Zarif and the Foreign Ministry.
RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Israel and the United States are jointly working to have
the United Nations Security Council to upgrade the mandate of the
international peacekeeping force based in southern Lebanon, providing
it with greater authority in an effort to weaken Hezbollah. Israel
Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon told The Jerusalem Post that Israel
is working with the US to upgrade UNIFIL's mandate, specifically to
give it the ability to visit and inspect any area in southern
Lebanon. Under the existing mandate, UNIFIL cannot enter villages and
urban areas unless it first coordinates such visits with the Lebanese
Armed Forces.
Israel used their F-35i stealth fighter jets to conduct
attacks on Iranian targets to Iraq in the past month, hitting two
Iraqi bases used by Iranian forces and proxies and storing Iranian
ballistic missiles, the London-based Saudi daily Al Sharq Al Awsat
reported on Tuesday. The first attack happened on July 19 at a base
in Amreli in the Saladin province of Iraq. Iraqi and Iranian sources
blamed Israel at the time, and Al Sharq Al Awsat reported that
"diplomatic sources" confirmed this to be true, specifying
that the attack was carried out by an Israeli F-35.
Commander of the Iranian army's navy who is visiting
Russia has announced an agreement for joint naval exercises between
Iranian and Russian forces in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, the
Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. Hossein Khanzadi expressed
hope that the joint exercises will take place in the next few months,
according to Iran's official news outlet, IRNA. During Khanzadi's
visit to Russia, an agreement was also signed for expanding military
cooperation between the two countries.
Israel has expanded the scope of its Iranian targets in
Iraq and Syria, western diplomatic sources told Asharq Al-Awsat amid
reports that Tel Aviv carried out an airstrike earlier this month
against an Iranian rockets depot northeast of Baghdad. The July 19
attack was carried out by an Israeli F-35 fighter jet, they added. On
Sunday, the Ashraf base in Iraq, a former base used by the Iranian
opposition People's Mujahedin of Iran, was targeted by an air raid,
said sources.
GULF STATES, YEMEN & IRAN
Yemen's Minister of Information Moammar al-Eryani
strongly condemned the "abhorrent massacre" committed by
the Iran-backed Houthi militias in the Al Thabet market in Saada. The
minister said the militias deliberately targeted the popular market
with Katyusha rockets, killing 10 civilians and injuring 20,
including a number of children. "This terrible crime by the
Houthi militias against people is a collective punishment for their
national stand, rejection of the coup and support for the legitimate
government,"he tweeted.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
In new video released Monday, an Iranian Revolutionary
Guard officer is heard telling a British warship not to interfere or
put their "life in danger" as the paramilitary force, using
speedboats and a helicopter, seized a U.K.-flagged commercial vessel
in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this month. The video includes a shot
apparently filmed on the day of the July 19 incident from above the
British warship Foxtrot 236 that was in the vicinity of the
U.K.-flagged Stena Impero, showing the British navy unable to prevent
Iran's seizure of the ship in the critical waterway.
The United Kingdom's Information Commissioner Elizabeth
Denham has ordered the Department for International Development
(DFID) to disclose audit reports of accounts into which British grant
money was transferred and allegedly used to pay salaries to convicted
Palestinian terrorists. The decision, signed on Friday by Jonathan
Slee, senior case officer for the Information Commissioner's Office,
overturns a 2018 refusal by both the DFID and its internal reviewer
to disclose these reports, following a Freedom of Information request
made by UK Lawyers for Israel (UKLFI) last year.
UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has dismissed the idea
of a tanker swap with Iran in a Monday morning interview with BBC
World Service. A day earlier on Sunday, Kamal Kahrrazi, Chairman of
Iran's Foreign Relations Strategic Council, a body that operates under
the aegis of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's office,
suggested that Tehran will consider hastening "judiciary
procedures" about a British-flagged oil tanker it has detained,
if Iran's Grace 1 oil tanker which remains under detention in Gibraltar
is released.
Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Abbas
Mousavi said his country is ready to reduce its nuclear
commitments if Europe is unable to secure the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal signed by Iran and the
six world powers in 2015. Mousavi's comments come one day
after Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China met in Vienna
to discuss the fate of the JCPOA, from which the United
States withdrew in May 2018.
The owner of a British tanker seized by Iran in the
Strait of Hormuz earlier this month raised concerns about the safety
of the crew still on board. "We are concerned about the
potential impact a prolonged period of uncertainty will have on the
welfare of both crew and their families," Stena Bulk, the
shipping unit of Sweden's Stena AB, said in a statement Monday.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard is still holding the vessel, the Stena
Impero, and 23 crew members detained on July 19.
European nations, alarmed by Iran's capture of
a British oil tanker, are mounting a response to protect their
commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. The
Royal Navy has started to escort British ships, and a plan for a
European naval mission has been endorsed by Denmark, France and
Italy. It's a promising start. But effectively curbing Iran's
misbehavior and safeguarding ships in the region will require a more
ambitious -and truly international - effort. Most important, it needs
to involve the U.S. Navy.
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