Nasrallah's
Latest Rocket Boast Underlines Threat to Israeli Cities and Sensitive Sites
by Yaakov Lappin
Special to IPT News
July 25, 2019
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 Hizballah chief
Hassan Nasrallah recently issued a new threat to Israel's cities and sensitive
sites, boasting of his terror organization's ability to hit targets deep
inside the country.
The threats came in a televised speech, serving as a reminder of the
ambitious arms race that the Shi'ite terror army is engaged in, with the
massive assistance of its state sponsor, Iran.
The Lebanese Hizballah is the world's most heavily armed non-state
actor, and its surface-to-surface firepower arsenal – estimated at around 150,000 projectiles – is larger
than most state armies'.
The Israel Defense Force's (IDF) main war preparations focus on the
offensive and defensive operations needed to deal with this threat.
On July 12, Nasrallah told Al-Manar television station, which is
affiliated with his terror organization, that Hizballah improved its offensive
capabilities. Displaying a map, he threatened strikes on strategic Israeli
targets including Ben Gurion International Airport, the Dimona nuclear
facility, a power plant in Hadera, Ashdod sea port, and ammonia tanks in
the city of Haifa. Hizballah makes no distinction between civilian and
military targets, and has made the goal of terrorizing Israeli civilians a
top priority in future wars.
Nasrallah also threatened to hit the IDF headquarters in the heart of
Tel Aviv, as well as a series of air force bases.
Hizballah built up its arsenal by smuggling projectiles into 200
southern Lebanese villages, as well as launch sites in the Bekaa Valley in
east Lebanon. It therefore has embedded its firepower in the heart of
Lebanese communities, turning Lebanese civilians into human shields if
Israel needs to target launch sites and bases.
The projectiles are manufactured by Iranian arms factories, as well as
joint Iranian-Syrian weapons factories in Syria. The Iranian Quds Force is
responsible for smuggling the weapons into Lebanon.
This arsenal is mostly comprised of short-range rockets with a 45
kilometer (about 28 mile) range, but it also includes thousands of
mid-range rockets that can reach central Israel, where the majority of
Israel's population lives, and which is home to the country's economic hub.
In addition, Hizballah has several hundred long-range rockets, and dozens
of ballistic missiles.
Just before the Second Lebanon War broke out in 2006, Hizballah had
around 11,000 rockets – less than 10 percent of what it has today – the
vast majority of which were short-range.
Hizballah's top goal is converting its rockets and missiles into guided
weapons. Stopping that from happening has become a top Israeli national
security priority.
With Iran's help, Hizballah has repeatedly attempted to set up
"conversion factories" that install GPS guidance kits onto unguided missiles and
rockets. "Relevant components are transported from Iran to factories
in Syria and Lebanon, either by land, or by air via Damascus, using
civilian aircraft," a recent report by the British Israel
Communications and Research Center said.
According to an assessment by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism
Information Center, "Nasrallah's threats express his growing
self-confidence (and of his sponsor, Iran), based on the significant
improvement in Hizballah's offensive capabilities since the Second Lebanon
War. Those capabilities are a function of a large arsenal of rockets and a
relatively small number of precision missiles that cover strategic targets
in Israel."
Yet Nasrallah's arsenal is significantly less precise than what he and
the Iranians would have wanted it to be by this stage.
This is due to the determined, mostly low profile Israel campaign to
disrupt the Hizballah arms build-up of guided projectiles, whether by stopping the production and trafficking of such components
in Syria, or by issuing clear warnings that missile precision sites Lebanon need
to cease their activities, or face attack.
Israel holds that it is essential to act now to stop Hizballah from
gaining precision destructive firepower, rather than wait and face weapons
that can change Tel Aviv's skyline in a future war.
This logic appears to be linked to reports on Wednesday of new alleged Israeli strikes on
Iranian military targets in southern Syria. The strikes reportedly hit
military outposts formerly held by Russian forces that have since been
taken over by Iranian-backed militias.
On Tuesday, Israel's United Nations Ambassador Danny Danon exposed Quds Force arms trafficking to Hizballah via
Beirut's sea port, using civilian maritime channels. "The Port of
Beirut is now the Port of Hezbollah," he said. The smuggling included
components meant for Hizballah's conversion program to make unguided
projectiles into precision missiles.
In the meantime, the Iranian-Hizballah axis continues trying to threaten
Israel in other ways. On Wednesday, the Shin Bet intelligence agency exposed a Syrian-based Iranian terror network which
tried recruiting agents inside Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza. It tried to
use recruits to gather intelligence and organized attacks on Israeli
targets.
"The network operated out of Syria, under Iranian direction, and
was led by a Syrian named 'Abu Jihad,'" the Shin Bet stated. It used
fictitious Facebook profiles to try to recruit Israeli Arab citizens and
Palestinians, to get them to gather information on military bases,
sensitive security facilities, high profile figures, police stations, and
hospitals, all as part of Iranian efforts to prepare a target list.
The Shin Bet said it detected and monitored the network from its outset,
closely monitoring handlers abroad and recruits in Israel and the West Bank
who expressed willingness to cooperate. The agency noted that "the big
majority of Israeli citizens [who were approached] refused to cooperate,
since they suspected a hostile element was involved, and cut off
communications."
This shadow conflict can escalate into a full-blown conflict due to
minor catalysts. Tensions in the Persian Gulf between Iran, the United
States, and other countries could form one such catalyst, as Israeli Energy
Minister Yuval Steinitz noted on July 14.
Speaking to Israel's Channel 13, the minister said that Iranian brinkmanship could end up causing a
conflict that would trigger an Israeli-Hizballah conflict.
"I'm not ruling out that within weeks or months, there could be an
explosive clash U.S.-Iran clash. And its echoes could reach us,"
Steinitz said. "There could be a conflict with Hizballah. There could
be a direct clash with Iran. Anything can happen. We are prepared."
"For four years already, we have foiled Iranian attempts to build
bases in Syria, and stopped them from building thousands of projectiles,
[from bringing] jets, and the IRGC from bringing tanks [to Syria]," he
said. "The Hizballah threat, and the direct Iranian threat remain
intact. We are preparing for these day and night."
Yaakov Lappin is a military and strategic affairs correspondent. He
also conducts research and analysis for defense think tanks, and is the
Israel correspondent for IHS Jane's Defense Weekly. His book, The
Virtual Caliphate, explores the online jihadist presence.
Related Topics: Yaakov
Lappin, Hizballah,
Hassan
Nasrallah, rocket
arsenal, Iran,
Quds
Force, Meir
Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, human
shields, recruitment,
Danny
Danon, Shin
Bet, Yuval
Steinetz
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