Stopping Iran

Stopping Iran

http://frontpagemag.com/2010/07/21/stopping-iran/

Posted by Alan W. Dowd on Jul 21st, 2010 and filed under FrontPage. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

Alan W. Dowd writes on defense and security issues.

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With Washington winding down one war in Iraq and ramping up another in Afghanistan, no one really expects U.S. forces to swing their sights on the country that sits in between these two crisis spots. Sure, there’s the obligatory talk of “all options being on the table,” but if the hawkish Bush administration couldn’t pull the trigger on Iran’s advancing nuclear program, it seems highly unlikely that the Obama administration, eager to pursue a less confrontational and more diplomatic approach in the region, will choose the military option. What’s most intruguing is the prospect that someone else could choose that option—or that something else could serve as a trigger.

Talk of a counter-proliferation strike gained traction earlier this month, when the UAE’s ambassador to the United States, Yousef al-Otaiba, endorsed the idea at a conference in Aspen, Colorado.

“We cannot live with a nuclear Iran,” he said, adding that in his “cost-benefit analysis” the UAE would be “willing to absorb what takes place at the expense of the security of the UAE.”

But would the UAE be willing or able to offer more than political support? Probably not. Even so, the UAE looks to be bracing for the worst. For the first time ever, pilots from the UAE’s air force joined the U.S. Air Force and allied air forces at the Red Flag exercises in Nevada in 2009. And with an eye on Tehran, the UAE has purchased $17 billion in F-16s, Patriot missile batteries, and area-wide missile defenses.

The $17-billion spending binge is part of a $25-billion modernization program by several oil-rich Gulf states, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, for their part, are beefing up their fleet of F-15 bombers by buying new jets and upgrading the ones they already have.

Interestingly, Saudi Arabia provides a perfect segue to the most likely source of a counter-proliferation strike on Iran’s nuclear program. Open-source materials—from the Los Angeles Times to the London Sunday Times to the Jerusalem Post—are filled with reports that the Saudis are so concerned about an Iranian bomb that they have privately agreed to open an air corridor for Israeli warplanes. One report indicates that the Saudis have even tested how they would “stand down” their air defenses to make way for an Israeli strike force.

The Saudis, of course, have denied these reports, but it pays to recall that Israeli warplanes flew through Turkish airspace en route to nuclear targets in Syria in 2007, with Turkey’s tacit approval.

For its part, Israel seems to be taking the necessary steps to prepare for a counter-proliferation operation:

• The Israeli air force is conducting drills in Europe and the United States to hone its long-range capabilities.
• Israeli subs are now being rotated into the Persian Gulf to ensure a permanent presence of at least one missile-laden sub. By publicizing this, Israel is hoping to deter Tehran.
• In late 2004, Israel began buying hundreds of bunker-busting bombs from the U.S. To carry those bombs into battle, the Israeli air force has acquired additional F-15s and F-16s.

For its part, France recently opened air force and naval installations in Abu Dhabi, just across from Iran. French president Nicolas Sarkozy says the base “is a sign to all that France is participating in the stability of this region of the world.” It pays to recall that Sarkozy is the most hawkish of all Western leaders when it comes to Iran, warning that if peace-loving countries don’t close ranks, the consequence will be “an Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran.” His foreign minister adds, “It is necessary to prepare for the worst. And the worst is war.”