Daniel

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June 1, 2011

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Dear Reader:

I made three media appearances recently that are now online:

(1) "Yemen's Descent" with a former U.S. ambassador to that country, Edmund Hull, on Russia Today's Crosstalk, out today. Two notes to that program: (1) The seven elements of the opposition to the central government, which I never got to discuss on air, are the youth movement, the Joint Meeting Parties, the military, the tribes, the Houthi rebels, the Southern secessionists, and the Ahmar family. (2) I visited Yemen in 1972 and have retained a fascination with this country ever since; I never expected to spend half an hour discussing it on television, but that is a sign of the times.

(2) "Obama Blows It [with Israel]." Caldwell Account, Sun News Network (Canada), May 30, 2011. Sun TV is the brand-new "Fox News Channel" of Canada.

(3) "State of Affairs in the Middle East" on In the Market with Janet Parshall, May 17, 2011.

Yours sincerely,

Daniel Pipes

"Arab Spring" - Misnomer

by Daniel Pipes

May 31, 2011

Cross-posted from National Review Online

http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2011/05/arab-spring-misnomer

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"Arab Spring" has taken off as the default description of the turbulence in the Middle East over the past 5½ months; Google shows 6.2 million mentions as opposed to 660,000 for "Arab Revolt" and a mere 57,000 for "Arab Upheaval." But I never use this term, and for three reasons:

1 – It's seasonally inaccurate. The disturbances began in Tunisia on Dec. 17, 2010, at the very tail end of autumn, and the main events took place during the winter – Ben Ali's resignation on Jan. 14, Mubarak's resignation on Feb. 11, the start of the Yemeni disturbances on Jan. 15, the Syria ones on Jan. 26, the Bahraini and Iranian ones on Feb. 14, and the Libyan ones on Feb. 15. Spring is nearly over and nothing much has happened during the past 2+ months – just move of the same. So, to be accurate, it should be called the "Arab Winter" (which gets 88,000 mentions).

2 – It implies an unwarranted optimism about the outcome. While I note the emergence of a constructive new spirit in Tahrir Square and elsewhere, and appreciate its long-term possibilities, the short-term implications have been impoverishment and thousands of deaths, with the possibility of an Islamist break-through not to be discounted.

3 – Demonstrations in Iran in 2011 have not reached anything like their 2009 proportions, but they did take place in late February and they have the potential to ignite – in which case, their importance would overwhelm anything else taking place in the region. It's a mistake to neglect Iran, where few residents speak Arabic.

So, no "Arab Spring" for me. (And I won't even mention that this term distractedly makes me conjure up a desert oasis.) I prefer a neutral and accurate term like "Middle East upheavals" (87,000 mentions). (May 31, 2011)

Arab spring?

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