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Reuters: "Iranian oil exports have fallen significantly in March, industry sources said on Friday, as some buyers stop or scale back purchases to abide by Western sanctions aimed at slowing Tehran's nuclear program. Crude exports from Iran appear to have fallen this month by around 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 14 percent, according to estimates from industry consultant Petrologistics and a leading European oil company. A source at a third oil company said it too had noted a decline in Iranian exports. It is the first sizeable drop in oil shipments from the OPEC producer since the European Union announced in January plans to embargo Iran's crude from July and Washington and Brussels sanctioned Iran's central bank." http://t.uani.com/GS7ijl
Reuters: "Iran is providing a broad array of assistance to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to help him suppress anti-government protests, from high-tech surveillance technology to guns and ammunition, U.S. and European security officials say. Tehran's technical assistance to Assad's security forces includes electronic surveillance systems, technology designed to disrupt efforts by protesters to communicate via social media, and Iranian-made drone aircraft for overhead surveillance, the officials said. They discussed intelligence matters on condition of anonymity. Iran has also provided lethal materiel that can be used for riot control, they said." http://t.uani.com/GRl0wG
AP: "President Barack Obama warned North Korea and Iran on Monday that their options are few, and their friends fewer, as those nations refuse to back down from actions the world sees as menacing... Obama also reiterated his warning to Iran, which the U.S. and its allies contend is defying its international obligations by pursuing an illicit nuclear program. 'Iran's leaders must understand that there is no escaping the choice before it. Iran must act with the seriousness and sense of urgency that this moment demands,' Obama said. 'Iran must meet its obligations.' Facing down Iran and North Korea, Obama said a 'new international norm' was emerging to deal with the two nations' intransigence." http://t.uani.com/H6JnLr
Nuclear Program AP: "Iran and six world powers have agreed to meet on April 13 for new talks about Tehran's nuclear program, but the failure of previous meetings and disputes over what should be discussed are keeping them from choosing a venue, diplomats told The Associated Press on Monday. Three diplomats from Western nations accredited to the International Atomic Energy Agency said the starting date is set and they expect the dispute over the venue to be resolved in time. But the bickering over the location after days of talks appeared to reflect the deep differences between the two sides that have doomed previous meetings during which Iran has refused to even discuss international demands that it curb nuclear activities that could be used as part of a weapons program. The main stumbling block remains uranium enrichment." http://t.uani.com/H4BJvC Sanctions
Reuters: "ZTE Corp, China's second-largest telecommunications equipment maker, said it will 'curtail' its business in Iran following a report that it had sold Iran's largest telecom firm a powerful surveillance system capable of monitoring telephone and Internet communications. Reuters reported Thursday that Shenzhen-based ZTE had signed a 98.6 million euro ($130.6 million) contract with the Telecommunication Co of Iran in December 2010 that included the surveillance system... Shu said ZTE had decided 'some time ago' to 'shrink' its business in Iran, although he said the company had not yet decided on the details. 'It's still being discussed,' he said. He also said he did not know the reason for the decision." http://t.uani.com/GQBM4U
WSJ: "Swiss trading giant Vitol Group has continued dealing in Iranian oil products even after buying millions of barrels of crude oil from U.S. strategic reserves last year, but some U.S. lawmakers aim to prevent the company from having it both ways in the future. Vitol, the world's largest independent oil trader, received fuel from Iran earlier this month, an Iranian document obtained by Dow Jones Newswires shows. The Vitol shipment doesn't violate current U.S. or European Union sanctions on Iran, which are designed to eventually choke off activities with the Islamic Republic from banking to shipping oil. Yet a bill with some bipartisan support from key U.S. senators would bar companies which engage in trading activity with Iran from buying oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, if it's passed into law... Vitol is a rare example of a large company in the western European oil industry that hasn't announced a voluntary end to trades with Iran, despite having strong U.S. ties. It has a large oil trading operation in the U.S. and has announced plans to build a crude oil terminal and loading facilities in Midland, Texas." http://t.uani.com/GQXsxW
Reuters: "Royal Dutch Shell is struggling to pay off $1 billion that it owes Iran for crude oil because European Union and U.S. financial sanctions now make it almost impossible to process payments, industry sources said. Four sources said the oil major owes a large sum to the National Iranian Oil Co (NIOC) for deliveries of crude, with one putting the figure at close to $1 billion. A debt of that size would equate to roughly four large tanker loads of Iranian crude or about 8 million barrels. 'Shell is working hard to figure out a way to pay NIOC,' said an industry source, who requested anonymity. 'It's very sensitive and very difficult. They want to stay on good terms with Iran, while abiding by sanctions.'" http://t.uani.com/GQxB8A
Reuters: "Eni, Italy's biggest oil and gas group, is still owed over $1 billion worth of oil by Iran and has a special exemption enabling it to continue receiving that crude despite an EU embargo on Iranian oil, its chief executive said. 'The amount is in a range of $1.0-1.4 billion,' CEO Paolo Scaroni said in a meeting with foreign reporters on Friday. Iran for years has been using oil to pay back Eni for decade-old deals. Three years ago Eni was owed around $3 billion in oil... Scaroni said Eni was exempt from the embargo since it was the subject of a 'special rule' granted by both the United States and EU covering oil it receives from Iran as payment for investments already carried out. Under the agreement, Eni withdraws about 10,000 barrels per day from Iran, he said." http://t.uani.com/GKLkJm
Reuters: "Malaysian state oil firm Petronas will halt all imports of Iranian crude from April, two months before a U.S. embargo takes effect, joining a growing list of buyers bowing to Western pressure to isolate Iran... Petronas PETR.UL sources said on Friday the company was already looking at other suppliers. 'We are complying and aim to cut all our imports from Iran by April,' said a senior Petronas official with direct knowledge of the issue. 'We are looking at alternative sources.' ... Petronas imports some 50,000-60,000 bpd of Iranian crude, the sources said, making it a mid-sized Asian buyer compared with top Iranian oil importers such as China's Zhuhai Zhenrong and Unipec which buy more than 200,000 bpd each." http://t.uani.com/GIpS8F
Reuters: "The Royal Bank of Scotland has halted payments to a Greek ship owner which transported Iranian oil for an Indian shipping company, in line with Western sanctions aimed at hindering Iranian crude exports, shipping sources told Reuters. The European Union in January placed an immediate ban on new contracts to import, purchase or transport Iranian crude and petroleum products. EU members with existing contracts, however, can honor them until July 1. India's Great Eastern Shipping Co Ltd has not been able to pay Greek firm Eurotankers, which holds an account with RBS, for using one of its supertankers to ship Iranian crude because the UK-based bank would not clear the payment, the sources said." http://t.uani.com/GS2uDb
Reuters: "Almost half a million metric tonnes of grain has arrived at Iran's major food port and Turkish banks are being used by the Islamic Republic as an alternative trade financing route to sidestep Western sanctions, trade sources say. Iran has been shopping for wheat at a frantic pace, ordering a large part of its expected yearly requirement in a little over one month and paying a premium in non-dollar currencies to work around toughened sanctions and avoid social unrest. 'With any number of unknowns out there - a potential attack on its nuclear facilities, the possibility that a different administration takes office in the United States, the regime is prudently laying aside (food) stocks in the event things go very wrong,' said J. Peter Pham, a director with U.S. think tank the Atlantic Council." http://t.uani.com/GMapXh
Bloomberg: "Mehdi slams a bottle of Heinz ketchup on the counter of his Tehran grocery store and says it's the kind of item Iranians have stopped buying, after the price doubled in two months. 'People are spending their cash with more caution,' Mehdi said. He blames Iran's government, as well as international sanctions, for the inflation that is hurting his business. 'It's a crisis in policy making, there's not much thought behind it,' he said. 'It was obvious from the start that this is what we were heading for.' Iranians are celebrating the Persian New Year under austerity conditions exacerbated by the U.S. drive to isolate the Islamic republic's $480 billion economy -- about the size of Norway. Measures aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program have targeted trade, banking and oil exports. Some imports have disappeared from the shelves and others have soared in price amid a run on the Iranian currency that saw its dollar value drop by half on the black market." http://t.uani.com/GSluI2
Terrorism
JPost: "Iran plotted to carry out a terror attack on an Israeli ship as it passed through Egypt's Suez Canal, a report in the Egyptian Al-Ahram weekly claimed on Friday. According to the report, the Egyptian terror operatives received instructions and funds from Iranian handlers ahead of the planned attack... The suspects allegedly planned to recruit a third member to their cell, and were supposed to receive 50 million Egyptian pounds to carry out the plan. If confirmed, the plot could strain ties between Iran and Egypt, which is in the midst of a political transformation." http://t.uani.com/H4BcKl
Opinion & Analysis
Avi Jorisch in BusinessLIVE: "MTN has a corporate responsibility to cease doing business with Iran and colluding with a state sponsor of terror that uses its technology to track, silence and kill its people. The South African government should take immediate action to prevent this abuse of the telecommunications industry. MTN's business ties to Iran are significant and represent approximately a fifth of the company's revenue. It has a 49% stake in Iran's second-largest cellphone operator, MTN-Irancell, which has cornered almost half of the Iranian cellphone market. The remaining 51% is owned by the Iran Electronic Development Company (IEDC), a company affiliated with the Iranian government. Its principal shareholder, Iran Electronic Industries, has been blacklisted by both the US Treasury and the European Union for its role in proliferating weapons of mass destruction. On January 27 an MTN spokesman said that while the company was monitoring events in Iran, it was conducting 'business as usual' in the country. Minister of Communications Dina Pule further emphasised that there would be no pressure on MTN to pull out of Iran. MTN has played a critical role in helping the Iranian regime to hunt down its opposition. In 2009, when Iranians took to the streets to protest President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election, MTN-Irancell, along with Iran's other cellphone carriers, reportedly followed government instructions to suspend text messaging and block internet phone services such as Skype, which were used extensively by the opposition movement. In 2011 it was reported that MTN-Irancell worked with Chinese firm Huawei Technologies, which installed tracking equipment that allows the Iranian intelligence services to locate people through their cellphones. This enables the regime to pursue, jail and often kill opposition members. Huawei also reportedly provided this equipment to Iran's other telecommunication providers... MTN has a responsibility to stop supporting Iran. Partnering with a regime that uses mobile technology to track and kill the opposition is a betrayal of its corporate responsibility. The South African government should take a strong stance against Iran as long as it oppresses its people, proliferates terrorism and marches towards a nuclear bomb." http://t.uani.com/GM8nFu
Reuel Marc Gerecht in WSJ: "In recent speeches, interviews and private meetings, President Obama has been trying hard to dissuade Israel from bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. All along, however, he's actually made it much easier for Israel to attack. The capabilities and will of Israel's military remain unclear, but the critical parts of the administration's Iran policy (plus the behavior of the Islamic Republic's ruler, Ali Khamenei) have combined to encourage the Israelis to strike. Public statements define a president's diplomacy, and in front of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee this month Mr. Obama intensely affirmed 'Israel's sovereign right to make its own decisions about what is required to meet its security needs.' He added that 'no Israeli government can tolerate a nuclear weapon in the hands of a regime that denies the Holocaust, threatens to wipe Israel off the map, and sponsors terrorist groups committed to Israel's destruction.' By so framing the Iranian nuclear debate, the president has forced a spotlight on two things that his administration has wanted to leave vague: the efficacy of sanctions and the quality of American intelligence on Tehran's nuclear program. The Israelis are sure to draw attention to both in the coming months. Given Mr. Khamanei's rejection of engagement, Mr. Obama has backed sanctions because they are the only plausible alternative to war or surrender. Ditto Congress, which has been the real driver of sanctions. But the timeline for economic coercion to work has always depended on Israeli or American military capabilities and the quality of Western intelligence. Neither factor engenders much patience... It's an excellent bet that the Israelis now know that the CIA probably has no sources inside the upper reaches of the Iranian scientific establishment, Mr. Khamenei's inner circle, or the Revolutionary Guards' nuclear brigade. They know whether the National Security Agency has reliably penetrated Iran's nuclear communications, and how Iran has improved its cybersecurity since Stuxnet. The Israelis surely know that when the administration says it has 'no evidence' that Mr. Khamenei has decided to build a nuclear weapon, this really means that Washington has no solid information. That is, Washington is guessing-most likely in the spirit of the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which willfully downplayed Tehran's nuclear progress. Because of his multilateral openness with our allies, Mr. Obama has likely guaranteed that the Western intelligence consensus on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program will default to what the Israelis and French have always said is most critical to weaponization: How many centrifuges do the Iranians have running, and are they trying to hide them or put them deep underground?" http://t.uani.com/GQKryZ
Michael O'Hanlon & Bruce Reidel in WashPost: "To contain Iran, or to preempt? That is, at present, the question. President Obama's recent dismissal of containment as an option would seem to stack the deck. Unless Iran pauses its uranium enrichment activities, an Israeli or U.S. strike against its nuclear facilities looks likely by next year. Containment always looks better in theory, or in retrospect, than it works in practice. Our four-decade containment of the Soviet Union included several near misses, including the Berlin crisis and the Cuban missile crisis. And given the Iranian regime's willingness to resort to terror tactics - even on U.S. soil - and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's purported remarks about wiping Israel off the map, there are clear downsides to relying on Iranian rationality that the regime can be deterred. On the other hand, preemption doesn't look great either. The Iranian regime, while dangerous, does not have suicidal tendencies. And the consequences of any airstrike against Iran's enrichment facilities at Qom and Natanz would probably not be limited to direct counterattacks by Iranian agents and proxies against U.S. or Israeli forces in the region: International economic sanctions and arms bans against Iran are likely to be weakened and International Atomic Energy Agency monitors ejected from the Islamic republic. And for what? A one- to three-year delay, not destruction, of the Iranian bomb program - as well as greater consensus within Iran to pursue the nuclear option. The good news is that there is a third approach: constriction. Essentially, we would continue to delay and minimize the scale of Iran's nuclear program as we have been doing through sanctions and other means. We would keep doing this indefinitely, even if Iran gets a nuclear weapon. Force would not be categorically ruled out under such a policy. But it would have to pass a cost-benefit test. Near-term strikes against the uranium-enrichment centrifuge installations fail that test. But in the future, factors might be different. Large reactors that are able to produce bomb-grade plutonium could be reasonable targets down the line. They are easy to see and virtually impossible to place underground. Under a constriction policy, we would continue to do our utmost to prevent Iran from getting the bomb. But we would recognize that even if Iran had a handful of bombs, the balance of power in the Middle East in both nuclear and conventional terms would still tilt overwhelmingly toward Israel." http://t.uani.com/GKuEXx
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