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Caution
on Evaluating Egyptian Government Statements on Terrorist Incidents
by Amos Harel • Aug 10, 2012 at 10:37 am
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I think we should be very careful about the
Egyptian accusations against Hamas. Note that Israeli intelligence sources
refused to confirm this information. The relationship between Gaza and
fundamentalist Islamic elements in Sinai is deep, but I can't see Hamas (or
even splinter groups like the Popular Resistance Committees) going for such a
blunt move against Cairo. My guess is that in the end, all we'll know for sure
is that some Gazan group helped the attack logistically. I would also look at
the Hezbollah connection: remember those dozens of Hezbollah operatives jailed
by Mubarak for presumably attempting to blow up ships in the Suez Cannel, then
released immediately after the revolution? It's assumed that some of them went
to Sinai. Anyway, impressive as they now seem, we'll have to see if the
Egyptian steps against the terrorist group will continue for more than a few
weeks.
Bibi
and Barak battle for Israeli public opinion over Iran
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All four of
Israel's major newspapers featured Iran in their headlines in their weekend
editions. In Ha'aretz, Ari Shavit, who has been pro-strike, wrote: "Top
Israeli Official: the Iranian Nuclear Threat is bigger than the threat faced by
Israel before the Six Day War"
That "top Israeli official" (no
extra points for guessing who he may be), told Shavit: "If Iran gets
nuclear weapons, no one will be able to stop her when she provokes her
neighbours," adding, "what happened in the Rhineland in 1936 will be child's
play compared to happens with Iran." The official continued: "If we
don't act, Iran will almost certainly go nuclear. If we do act, there is a
chance Iran won't go nuclear in the years to come, or might never go nuclear.
Assessing the risks to the homeland, the source told Shavit that the number of
casualties Israel would suffer in any war with Iran would be less than the
number of casualties suffered by the "Harel Brigade"(part of Palmach)
in the 1948 war of Independence.
The description in the article left almost no
doubt that the "official" in question is Defense Minister Ehud Bark.
Wrote Shavit: "This decision maker is a controversial figure. At times, he
was seen as a savior, then dismissed as a leper (מצורע), and again a savior,
then a leper again. Even his opponents, however, agree that he is very
intelligent. Even those who disagree with him point to his unique strategic
experience, his half-century spent at the very center of Israeli decision
making processes. Not just once or twice has he been at the absolute center.
One very late night he opened the door to me…with a grand piano at his back he
told me his point of view for two and a half hours."
It is well known around Israel that Ehud
Barak plays the piano. Chief of staff in the nineties, then the great white of
hope of the left for peace as prime minister in the late nineties, later come
back kid as head again of the labor party. Recently, he presided over the
splitting of the labor party and the formation of his new 'Independence' party
and a bedrock member of Netanyahu's coalition.
In Ma'ariv, meanwhile, the headline read:
"37% of Israelis say Iranian possession of nuclear weapons could lead to a
second Holocaust." They then produced a series of polls attempting to
gauge the public mood before a strike. 41% of Israelis say only military action
will stop Iran, "only" (according to Ma'ariv) 22% believe in
sanctions, 35% prefer a US strike to an Israeli one, 40% trust Netanyahu and
Barak while 27% don't.
Unsurprisingly, Israel Ha'yom has also
promoted a pro-strike approach. "Iran intensifies weapon
development," screamed the headline, accompanied by a picture of
Ahmadinejad flashing his fingers in a victory sign to the Israeli public. The
paper quotes the Israeli chief of staff: "we are preparing ourselves for a
multi-front confrontation".
This weekend, the only newspaper that has
adopted an anti-strike approach is Yediot-Ha'aronot: "Netanyahu and Barak
are determined to attack Iran in the fall", ran the headline. "Barak,"
the story proceeded, "sat top generals down for a meeting in his office,
but came across fierce resistance. Later, he again tried to persuade them in a
conversation at a Mossad-run location. This didn't help either. All the army
professionals expressed opposition to a strike without the backing of the
United States, and asked the same question: what happens on the Israeli home
front the day after?"
**
When four of out four newspapers in Israel
deal with any single subject one can count on the fact that there is a
deliberate effort by some personnel to set the headlines on fire. Netanyahu and
Barak are now fighting hard to win over the hearts and minds of the Israeli
public to a strike on Iran – and the media blitz is a tool they are using to
persuade recalcitrant generals.
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