Thursday, January 31, 2013

Eye on Iran: Iran Crude Oil Exports Rise to Highest since EU Sanctions








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Top Stories

Reuters: "Iran's crude oil exports in December leapt to their highest level since European Union sanctions took effect last July, analysts and shipping sources said, as strong Chinese demand and tanker fleet expansion helped the OPEC member dodge sanctions. Exports rose to around 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, according to two industry sources and shipping and customs data compiled by Reuters on a country-by-country basis and corroborated by other sources and consultants. The sources said they expected exports to dip in January from the December peak ahead of new U.S. sanctions. Western sanctions aimed at curbing Iran's disputed nuclear program halved Iran's oil exports in 2012 from 2.2 million bpd in late 2011, leading to billions of dollars in lost revenue and a plunge in the Iranian currency. But continuous robust demand from top buyer China and others such as India and Japan, as well as the purchase of new tankers, allowed the Islamic Republic to unexpectedly boost exports late last year." http://t.uani.com/W1qsqe

AP: "The U.N. nuclear agency has told member nations that Iran is poised for a major technological upgrade of its uranium enrichment program, in a document seen Thursday by The Associated Press. The move would vastly speed up Tehran's ability to make material that can be used for both reactor fuel and nuclear warheads. In an internal note to member nations, the International Atomic Energy Agency said it received notice last week from Iran's nuclear agency of plans to install high-technology enriching centrifuges at its main enriching site at Natanz, in central Iran. The machines are estimated to be able to enrich up to five times faster than the present equipment. The brief note quoted Iran as saying new-generation IR2m 'centrifuge machines ...will be used' to populate a new 'unit' - a technical term for an assembly that can consist of as many as 3,132 centrifuges. It gave no timeframe and a senior diplomat familiar with the issue said work had not started, adding it would take weeks, if not months, to have the new machines running once technicians started putting them in." http://t.uani.com/WAnnz9

Reuters: "Fuel purchases made for Afghan security forces using U.S. government funds may have included Iranian petroleum products in violation of U.S. sanctions, investigators said in a report published late on Wednesday. Afghanistan relies heavily on imported fuel and Iran, Russia, and Turkmenistan are the leading countries of origin, the report by the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) says. But the watchdog said it could not rule out the possibility of sanctions violations in purchases for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) that are financed by the U.S. taxpayer. 'Despite actions taken by the Department of Defense to prevent the purchase of Iranian fuel with U.S. funds, risks remain that U.S. economic sanctions could be violated,' Special Inspector General John Sopko said in the report." http://t.uani.com/YGt41l
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Nuclear Program

AP: "Defense Secretary nominee Chuck Hagel said the 'window is closing' on Iran and the possibility of diplomacy if it continues to ignore international demands to end pursuit of a nuclear weapon. In his first opportunity to express his opinions since President Barack Obama nominated him Jan. 7, Hagel addressed a range of issues, from Iraq and Afghanistan to women in combat, in a 112-page questionnaire for the Senate Armed Services Committee. The panel submitted the extensive questions to Hagel in advance of his confirmation hearing on Thursday... In his responses, Hagel adopted a hardline on Iran, echoing Obama's contention that the United States would consider all options, including military action, to keep Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. 'If confirmed, I will focus intently on ensuring that U.S. military is in fact prepared for any contingency,' Hagel said in response to committee questions... 'If Iran continues to flout its international obligations, it should continue to face severe and growing consequences,' Hagel said. 'While there is time and space for diplomacy, backed by pressure, the window is closing. Iran needs to demonstrate it is prepared to negotiate seriously.'" http://t.uani.com/WAnKcP

Sanctions

Reuters: "A Hong Kong-based firm that attempted to sell embargoed Hewlett-Packard computer equipment to Iran's largest mobile-phone operator has much closer ties to China's Huawei Technologies than was previously known, corporate records show. Cathy Meng, Huawei's chief financial officer and the daughter of company founder Ren Zhengfei, served on the board of Hong Kong-based Skycom Tech Co Ltd between February 2008 and April 2009, according to Skycom records filed with Hong Kong's Companies Registry. Reuters reported last month that in late 2010, Skycom's office in Tehran offered to sell at least 1.3 million euros worth of HP gear to Mobile Telecommunication Co of Iran, despite U.S. trade sanctions. At least 13 pages of the proposal were marked 'Huawei confidential' and carried Huawei's logo. Huawei said neither it nor Skycom ultimately provided the HP equipment; HP said it prohibits the sale of its products to Iran." http://t.uani.com/WDoQl3

Reuters: "Japan's crude imports from Iran fell 39.5 percent in 2012, trade ministry data showed on Thursday, in line with falls among other Asian buyers as Western sanctions cut shipments to Japanese refiners from the Middle Eastern country. Japan, the world's third-biggest oil consumer, imported 11,002,218 kilolitres (189,076 barrels per day) of Iranian crude last year, compared with 18,191,375 kl (313,480 bpd) a year earlier, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) said. In December, Iranian imports totalled 1,031,128 kl (209,213 bpd), down 36.9 percent from 1,635,000 kl (331,736 bpd) a year earlier... Other Asian buyers also have cut Iranian crude imports, with China's 2012 imports posting a fall of 21 percent from 2011 to 21.92 million tonnes, or 438,448 bpd. India imported 315,200 bpd of Iranian crude in 2012, down 1.7 percent from a year earlier, while South Korea's imports of crude oil from Iran dropped 35.6 percent last year to 56.15 million barrels, or 153,405 bpd." http://t.uani.com/12c9Ml8

Reuters: "Iran's Bank Mellat plans to sue European Union governments for damages after a European court ruled to annul sanctions against the company, lawyers said on Wednesday. Europe's General Court said on Tuesday the EU had failed to provide enough evidence that Bank Mellat was linked to Iran's disputed nuclear progam when the bloc targeted it with sanctions in July 2010, and ordered the measures annulled. EU governments may appeal the decision, and diplomats said broader European sanctions against Iranian banks could still limit Bank Mellat's ability to function in Europe. But lawyers for the bank, the biggest private sector lender in Iran, said the ruling meant it could resume trading in Europe. Bank Mellat 'will now be able to commence trading internationally and try and draw back the losses incurred over the last three years since the sanctions were imposed,' law firm Zaiwalla & Co said in a statement. 'Furthermore, the bank will now look to claim damages from the EU Council.'" http://t.uani.com/XV55FK

Bloomberg: "The latest European Union sanctions against Iran allow ships to burn fuel made from Iranian oil if it's produced and loaded in another country, according to the insurers of 90 percent of the world's fleet. The 27-nation bloc added restrictions on trade with the Persian Gulf country on Oct. 15. The International Group of P&I Clubs commented in a statement on its website dated Jan. 29. 'It would seem that ships stemming bunkers that contain a blend of Iranian-origin crude oil will not be caught by the prohibitions (providing the bunker oil is used for the propulsion of the ship and not carried as cargo) on purchase, transport or import of Iranian-origin crude oil in Regulation 267, provided also that the blended bunkers were produced and stemmed in a third country other than Iran, or, as a result of a force majeure event, the bunkers were stemmed in a port of refuge in Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/14zjNZv

Syrian Uprising

AFP: "Iran's foreign minister on Thursday condemned what he called Israel's "brutal aggression" against Syria, following claims by Damascus that the Jewish state's air force had hit a military research centre. 'There is no doubt that this aggression is part of a Western and Zionist strategy to push aside the success of the Syrian people and government to return to stability and security,' Ali Akbar Salehi said in a statement. It underscores the 'alignment of terrorist groups with the Zionists' objectives,' he added, using the Syrian regime's stock word for describing rebels fighting to oust President Bashar al-Assad. On Wednesday, the Syrian army accused Israel of launching a strike on its military research centre in Jamraya, near Damascus." http://t.uani.com/WDqIuc

Terrorism

AFP: "Iran's defense minister will be questioned by an Argentine judge as part of an agreement to investigate a deadly 1994 attack on a Buenos Aires Jewish center, Argentina said Wednesday. Seven other Iranians with international arrest warrants against them also will also be questioned by the Argentine judge in Tehran, Argentine Foreign Minister Hector Timerman confirmed on a local radio station. But he emphasized: 'I made sure (Iran Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi) will have to be present when the judge questioned them and he will be.' Argentina has long accused Iran of masterminding the deadly attack and since 2006 has sought the extradition of these eight Iranians, who also include former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati." http://t.uani.com/XacXm1

Human Rights

WashPost: "Iran's Intelligence Ministry issued a statement late Wednesday saying it has irrefutable evidence that journalists arrested this week had been illegally working with foreign media. The statement, first published by the semiofficial Mehr News Agency, said, 'The collected data from the detained individuals' links to the BBC are strong and undisputable in court.' The ministry went on to say that it had been tracking a network of individuals who worked for the BBC, warning that there would be more arrests in the coming days in its fight against what it called a 'psychological war' being waged against Iran by its foreign enemies. Mohammad Hassan Asafari, a member of the parliament's national security commission, told the Bahar newspaper Wednesday, 'Those who are arrested are not in fact journalists, but traitors who sold out their country disguised as journalists and sent reports to foreign-based Farsi media.'" http://t.uani.com/Xnx3Lj

Domestic Politics

WashPost: "In a year when Iran will elect a new president and could face make-or-break decisions about its nuclear program, the country's most prominent political family appears poised to extend its influence, strengthening the rule of hard-line clerics as they struggle with other power centers. Larijani brothers now sit atop two of Iran's three branches of government, the parliament and the judiciary, positions they have used to attempt to foil populist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Speculation is rife that the best known of the five Larijani brothers, parliament speaker Ali Larijani, will make a second bid for the presidency when Ahmadinejad completes his final term in June. The rise of the brothers - staunch defenders of Islamic rule who have the confidence of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - and their tensions with the more nationalist Ahmadinejad have underscored the competing strains of conservatism in Iran's increasingly fractious politics." http://t.uani.com/129hKeZ

Opinion & Analysis

Clyde Russell in Reuters: "Iran appears to have scored a victory in its cat and mouse battle with the West, with oil exports rising in December to the highest since European sanctions took effect. But while Western attempts to crimp Iran's oil trade are a serious business, the cut and thrust of action and counter-action resembles a Tom and Jerry cartoon, with each side scoring little victories but neither ever winning decisively. Iran's crude exports reached 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), the most since last July, when European sanctions took effect, according to two industry sources, and customs and shipping data compiled by Reuters. While this is still down on the 2.2 million bpd the Islamic republic exported in 2011, it's well up on the 900,000 bpd shipped out in September. The gain in exports is likely to encourage Tehran in its belief that it can 'tough out' European and U.S. sanctions aimed at forcing it to open its nuclear programme to international scrutiny. But as Jerry the mouse often discovers, his successes against Tom the cat are short-lived. Much of Iran's success has been due to its ability to maintain shipments to two of its largest Asian customers, namely China and India. India's imports from Iran rose 29 percent to 276,000 bpd in December from November, and the South Asian nation bought an average of 315,000 bpd in 2012, down a mere 1.7 percent from 2011's 320,000 bpd. This seems an unconvincing effort from an erstwhile U.S. and European ally to scale back its purchases from Iran, even though India had cut imports 19 percent in the first nine months of the fiscal and contract year that started in April. State-controlled Indian Oil Corp. bought more Iranian oil in December to honour its annual deal. However, import volumes may drop by 10 to 15 percent in the coming contract year, according to sources, as India seeks to maintain its U.S. waiver to import Iranian oil. China's imports from Iran rose to 593,400 bpd in December, the second-highest month in 2012 after June as shipping delays eased as Tehran added secondhand tankers to its fleet. In 2012, China's imports from Iran fell 21 percent from 2011 to 438,448 bpd, which still makes Beijing the top buyer of Iranian crude. China may reduce its purchases further in 2013, by up to 40,000 bpd, according to industry sources. But it seems that both China and India are at best reluctant observers of Western sanctions, with both still willing to take Iranian crude and help overcome issues such as the European ban on its re-insurers, who dominate the global market, from covering vessels carrying Iranian cargoes. Their reaction to the latest U.S. sanction may prove instructive. From February 6, U.S. law requires that funds being used to pay for Iranian oil must remain in a bank account in the purchasing country and can only be used for bilateral trade with Iran on goods not under sanctions. Any bank violating this measure runs the risk of being cut off from the U.S. financial system, something no major bank would be able to countenance.In theory, this will make it difficult, if not impossible, for Iran to be paid for oil. However, it also doesn't prevent Iran from shipping oil, so it's quite possible the Iranians will continue to supply Asian customers while they try to work out ways around the new steps." http://t.uani.com/11jIjho

Andres Oppenheimer in The Miami Herald: "Argentina has crossed a line by making a sweet deal with Iran to jointly investigate a 1994 terrorist attack against the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, which according to Argentine prosecutors and Interpol was masterminded by top Iranian officials. The deal seems to put Argentina fully within the Venezuelan-led club of Latin American countries that support some of the world's worst human rights offenders. Until now, many of us had hesitated to put Argentina in that category, mainly because Argentina remains a democracy and differed with Venezuela on Iran. Despite pleas by Venezuela to put the AMIA case on the backburner, the late President Néstor Kirchner had supported Argentine court requests for the extradition of former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, current Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi and others in connection with the car bombing that left 85 people dead and about 300 wounded 19 years ago. But now, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner seems to have changed course, breaking the biggest foreign policy stand that set Argentina apart from the Venezuela and Cuba. Her agreement with Iran to create a joint 'truth commission' to investigate the terrorist attack amounts to making a deal with a suspected killer to jointly investigate a murder, side-stepping the ongoing Argentine court investigation into the case, critics say. The idea of establishing a 'truth' commission on the AMIA tragedy that involves the Iranian regime would be like asking Nazi Germany to help establish the facts of Kristallnacht,' says American Jewish Committee head David Harris. Israel's Foreign Ministry has voiced its 'astonishment and disappointment' at the deal. The U.S. State Department's top official in charge of Latin American affairs, Roberta Jacobson, told me in an interview that she is 'skeptical that a just solution can be found' through the so- called Argentine-Iran 'truth-commission.' Asked whether she now sees Argentina as fully aligned with Iran, Cuba and Venezuela, Jacobson told me: 'I wouldn't make that leap yet. I certainly hope not. I hope that we will continue to work with the Argentines on lots of global issues, including counter-terrorism efforts.' Why is Argentina doing this? ... My opinion: Argentina has crossed a line by making a deal with the prime suspect in the 1994 terrorist attack.  I hope I'm wrong about this, but the end result of this so-called Argentina-Iran 'truth commission' will be a finding saying that a handful of low-level Iranian officials were involved in the case, which allows Iran's regime to claim it didn't have anything to do with it, and Argentina to claim it has solved the case. That would amount to a big blow to justice, and an insult to the memory of the 85 Jews and non-Jews who died in the terrorist attack." http://t.uani.com/11jIZDj

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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