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Islam's
Second Crisis: The troubles to come
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In What
Went Wrong, Bernard Lewis charted the decline of Islam in the
modern era and the resulting theological crisis for the Muslim world.
Now Islam is going through a second crisis, caused by the repeated
failures of revivalist responses to the first crisis. This second crisis,
combined with the cumulative effect of the first crisis, which remains
unresolved, will lead to a long drawn-out period of political and social
instability for Muslim societies.
The first millennium of Islam was a period of expansion through
conquest. However for five centuries from around 1500, Western powers
were pushing back Islamic rule. There were numerous landmarks of the
ascendancy of the West (which includes Russia), such as:
- the conquest of
Goa in India by the Portuguese in 1510;
- the liberation
of Christian Ethiopia in 1543 with the aid of the Portuguese
soldiers;
- the defeat of the
Ottomans at the gates of Vienna in 1683 and
- the ensuing
liberation of Hungary and Transylvania;
- Napoleon's
conquest of Egypt in 1798;
- the USA-Barbary
State Wars of 1801-1815, which put an end to tribute payments by the
US to the north African states to prevent piracy and the enslavement
of US citizens;
- a long series of
defeats for the Ottomans in Russo-Turkish wars stretching across
four centuries and culminating in the 1877-78 Russo-Turkish war,
- which led to the
independence of Romania, Serbia, Montenegro and Bulgaria;
- the overthrow of
Muslim principalities in Southeast Asia by the Portuguese, Spanish,
Dutch and English;
- the final
destruction of Mughal rule in India at the hands by the British in
1857;
- the defeat and dismantling
of the Ottoman Empire as a result of WWI;
- and finally, the
establishment of the modern state of Israel in 1948, in territory
formerly ruled by Islam, which was considered by many Muslims to be
the crowning humiliation in this long line of defeats.
We are not just talking about Western colonialism. Some of the
victories over Muslim principalities involved the occupation or
colonisation of primarily Muslim lands, but many involved the liberation
of non-Muslim peoples from the yoke of Muslim rule, such as in Ethiopia,
Hungary and India, and some were defensive responses to Islamic
aggression, such as the defeat of the Ottomans at the gates of Vienna.
While the external borders of Islam kept shrinking, its position of
dominance within its own borders was also being challenged. During this
same period there were in many places improvements in the conditions
experienced by non-Muslims under Islamic rule – a weakening of the dhimmi
system – which communicated to Muslims an impression of their own faith's
loss of dominance and its loss of 'success'. A landmark in this long
process was the Paris Peace Treaty of 1856, which settled the Crimean
War. As part of this settlement the Ottomans were compelled to grant
equal rights to Christians throughout their empire.
The gradual process of improvement of conditions for Christians and
Jews under Islam was regretted by Muslim scholars, who saw it as evidence
of Islam's decline. For example a request
for a fatwa from a Egyptian Muslim judge in 1772 lamented the
'deplorable innovations' of Christians and Jews, who were daring to make
themselves equal to Muslims by their manner of dress and behavior, all in
violation of Islamic law.
In a similar vein, the Baghdad Quranic commentator Al-Alusi complained
that non-Muslims in Syria during the first half of the 19th century were
being permitted to make annual tribute payments by means of an agent,
thus escaping the personal ritual degradations prescribed by Islamic law.
He concluded: "All this is caused by the weakness of Islam."
Why would Islam's lack of dominance be evidence of weakness?
Islamic doctrine promises falah
'success' to the religion's followers, symbolized by the daily call to
prayer which rings out from minarets: 'come to success, come to success'.
The success promised by Islam has always been understood to be both
spiritual and material: conquest and rule this life, and paradise in the
next. The Qur'an states that Allah has sent Muhammad "with the
guidance and the religion of truth, that He may cause it to triumph over
all (other) religions" (Sura 48:28).
Islam's theology of success meant that the global failure of Islamic
armies and states at the hands of 'Christian' states constituted a
profound spiritual challenge to Islam's core claims. Just as Muslim
scholars had always pointed to the military victories of Islam as proof
of its divine authority, this litany of defeats testified to its failure
as the religion of the successful ones.
The urgency of the question 'What went wrong?' drove the Islamic
revival, an interconnected network of renewal movements which have as
their central tenet that Muslims will once again be 'successful' –
achieving political and military domination over non-Muslims – if they
are truly devoted to Allah and implement Islamic laws faithfully. These
are reformation movements in the original (medieval) sense of the
Latin word reformatio, for they seek to restore Islam to its
former glory by returning to first principles.
Some of the main formative strands of Islamic revivalism have been:
- the Wahhabi
movement which originated in the 18th century;
- the Deobandi
movement in India and Pakistan which dates from 1866;
- Jamaat e-Islami, which was
founded 1941 in India;
- the Muslim
Brotherhood, founded 1928;
- and the Iranian
Revolution of 1979.
Out of these have come a myriad of offshoots and branches such as the
Taliban (from the Deobandi movement); Al Qaida (a product of the ideology
of Muslim Brotherhood theologian Said Qutb); the missionary movement Tablighi
Jamaat; and Hizb Ut-Tahrir.
Even the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, the 'United Nations' of
the Muslim world, is a revivalist organization: this is reflected in its
Charter which states that it exists "to work for revitalizing
Islam's pioneering role in the world", a euphemism for reestablishing
Islam's dominant place in world affairs.
In essence, Islamic revivalist movements aim to restore the greatness
of Islam and make it 'successful' again. This hope is embodied, for
example, in the Muslim Brotherhood's slogan "Islam is the solution".
This implies that when Islam is truly implemented all the problems human
beings face – such as poverty, lack of education, corruption, and
injustice – will be solved. The flip-side of this slogan is the thesis
that all the problems of the Muslim world have been caused through want
of genuine Islamic observance: Allah allowed his people to fall into
disarray because they were not faithful in obeying his laws. The
correction to this spiritual problem should therefore be more sharia
compliance. This is the reason why headscarves and burqas have been
appearing on Muslim women's heads with increasing frequency all around
the world.
For a time it appeared to many Muslims that the revivalist program was
working. The Iranian Islamic revolution, and the later victory of jihadis
in Afghanistan and the break-up of the Soviet Union was considered to be
evidence of the success of the revivalist program. This was the certainly
view of the translator of Sheikh Abdullah Azzam's jihadi tract Join
the Caravan:
"The
struggle, which he [Sheikh Azzam] stood for, continues, despite the
enemies of Islam. 'They seek to extinguish the light of Allah by their
mouths. But Allah refuses save to perfect His light, even if the
Disbelievers are averse. It is He who has sent His messenger with the
guidance and the true religion, in order that He may make it prevail over
all religions, even if the pagans are averse.' [Qur'an, 9:32-33] Since
the book was written, the Soviets have been expelled from Afghanistan, by
Allah's grace, and the entire Soviet Union has disintegrated."
Utopian claims are risky, because they open up the possibility for
even greater failure, and amplified cognitive dissonance as the gap between
one's faith and reality widens. The first crisis of Islam was the rise of
West through superior technological, economic and military prowess. The
second crisis is the failure of Islamic revivalism as a response to the
first crisis. The second crisis could prove even more painful and
profound in its effects on Islam than the first.
The manifestations of revivalism's failures are as diverse as the
Islamist movements which generated them. One could point to:
- the atrocities and
backwardness of the Taliban;
- the corruption and
cruelty after the 1979 Iranian Revolution;
- the failure of the
Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to govern for the benefit of the
Egyptian people, leading to a wildly popular military coup in 2013;
- the present-day
economic collapse of Turkey under big-talking Islamist Prime
Minister Erdogan;
- the genocidal
campaigns of Khartoum's military campaigns against its own citizens,
causing more than a million casualties;
- and the ongoing
Iraqi and Syrian jihad-driven bloodbaths.
Everywhere one looks there are good reasons for Muslims to question
the Islamic revivalist creed. The outcomes of more than two centuries of
theological fervor are not looking good. Muslim states are not realizing
the utopian goals set by these movements. Indeed the opposite is the
case: again and again, wherever revivalist movements have gained the
ascendancy, human misery has only increased. Too many Muslim states
continue to be models of poverty and economic failure, despite all those
female heads being covered up.
One inevitable consequence of this trend is disenchantment with Islam,
and a growing sense of alienation from the religion. The manifest failure
of the revivalist creed creates a sense of anxiety that Islam is under
threat, not from the infidel West, but from reputational damage caused by
the revivalists themselves. It is a case of the cure being worse than the
disease.
Recently General Sisi has been hailed by the population of Egypt, not
merely as a liberator of the nation from the ravages of Muslim
Brotherhood rule, but as the Savior of Islam: he is now a man on a
mission is to save the religion. In a recent
speech Sisi called for a 'new vision and modern, comprehensive
understanding of the religion of Islam'. Sisi would rescue Islam's
reputation, by improving 'the image of this religion in front of the
world, after Islam has been for decades convicted of violence and
destruction around the world, due to the crimes falsely committed in the
name of Islam'.
By 'crimes' Sisi no doubt has in mind the prosecution of former
President Morsi now underway in the Egyptian courts. Among other charges,
Morsi is alleged
to have been in league with Al-Qaida.
Sisi's statement represents a rejection of Islamic revivalism, because
at the core of all revivalist movements is a desire to reinstate and
vindicate the institution of jihad, as a symbol and a means of Islam's
longer-for 'success'. Thus the eminent Deobandi Jurist Muhammad T. Usmani
wrote in Islam and Modernism: "Aggressive Jehad is lawful
even today... Its justification cannot be veiled … we should venerate ...
this expansionism with complete self-confidence".
While Sisi's comments imply a concern for the image of Islam 'in front
of the world' – i.e. in the eyes of all, including non-Muslims – the
deeper, more visceral angst will be about whether Muslims will come to
doubt their own faith.
This anxiety is not just theoretical. Christian aid workers in the
Middle East have recently been reporting thousands of Muslim Syrian
refugees who are leaving
Islam to embrace the Christian faith. There was a remarkable growth
of conversions to Christianity among Algerians in the wake of the
Islamist regime in the earlier 1990's. There are also many reports of
explosive church growth in Iran, in a context of declining mosque
attendance and widespread disillusionment with Islam among young
Iranians.
It seems that the more intensely a nation is shaped by Islamist
revivalism or radical jihad, the more likely it is that significant
numbers of Muslims will want to leave Islam. This is not surprising: one
cannot promise utopia and fail to deliver without risking reputational
damage to Islam itself.
Another symptom of decline in confidence in Islam is the plummeting
birthrates in Islamic states, no least of all in Iran. David Goldman has pointed
out that lower birthrates tend to be correlated with loss of
confidence and decline in faith: "A lack of desire for children is
typically a symptom of civilizational decline."
Paradoxically, the revivalist movements have sought to promote the
success of Islam but their actual trajectory provides strong evidence
against Islam's ability to solve the problems of living well in this
world.
This issue arose in an unusual recent interview on Egyptian television
of a burqa-clad woman who declared her intention to leave Islam and
become a Christian.
In the interview
the woman rejects Islam on the grounds that if Islam was a valid faith,
its followers would not be killing each other: "There is no (true)
Islam, because (genuine) Muslims do not kill (other) Muslim(s), brothers
do not kill their brothers, brothers do not send people from Hamas or
Gaza to bomb us and kill us here; brothers do not kill their brothers in
the police; brothers do not kill their brothers in the army." In
essence this woman is agreeing with General Sisi's observation that some
Muslism are causing Islam to be 'convicted' of violence.
There are reasons to doubt the authenticity of this interview: it
could well be anti-Brotherhood propaganda, effectively saying "Look
what a mess the Brotherhood have created: it is so bad that now Muslims
are even thinking of leaving Islam because of all the violence and
killing being done by Muslims." Nevertheless, even if this interview
is propaganda – and some of what the woman says does sound quite peculiar
– what is important is that the interview reflects a growing desire to
give air space to the sense of disenchantment caused by the violent acts
of the revivalists. Even as propaganda – if that is what this video is –
it points to public anxiety about Islam being judged and found wanting
because of the deeds of the reformers.
In the first part of the 20th century, the Dutch Arabist C. Snouck
Hurgronje predicted that Islam would follow the path of Christianity in
Europe, and become toothless. Muslims, he argued, would relegate Islam to
the domain of personal piety, eschatology and the next life. He regarded
the marginalization of Islamic practice – i.e. of sharia law – as
inevitable, under the dominance of European values. He wrote in The Achehnese,
"The … laws and institutions of Islam will share the same fate [as
the laws of the Bible] … their study will gradually take the place of
their practice. … Such is our prediction as to the future of Islam, which
we utter with all the more confidence as symptoms of its realization have
already appeared."
The opposite has proved to be true. The trend Snouck Hurgonje saw
proved illusory and short-lived: in the post-colonial area, revivalist
movements gathered force and credibility among Muslims the world over,
until they became the dominant theological trend of twentieth century
Islam. It is telling that Snouck Hurgonje completely underestimated the
Wahhabi movement when he wrote: "The Wahhabite movement, which set
Arabia in a tumult on the threshold of the nineteenth century … was
subdued by Mohammad Ali and Wahhabitism has since been confined to an
insignificant sect…"
Confidence in Islam is now being punctured as the bitter fruits of
violent Islamist revolutions become more apparent. Snouck Hugronje also
observed that "All uniformity of public and domestic life that
prevails among Mohammedans of difference races… owes its origin to
external force. The foreign missionaries of Islam were her fighting men,
and her internal propaganda was the work of her police." While force
may have worked in the past, it is not working as well today. In the
modern era, with mobile phones and ready access to information via the
internet, the attempt to impose conformity based upon the use of force is
more likely to result in disillusionment. Today people know better and
can find out information to help them choose what to believe.
Islamic revivalist groups are being convicted by Muslim public opinion
of damaging the reputation of Islam itself, and this can only lead to
further spiritual disorietation among Muslim populations. The first
crisis of Islam led to such far-reaching effects, from the
re-Islamicization of Muslim communities around the globe, to the 9-11
atrocity. The second crisis of Islam will also have a far-reaching impact
no less profound in its effects.
For a long time revivalist movements have offered the only serious
Islamic theological response to the first crisis of Islam. They were the
only dog on the street. Now that this second crisis is unfolding and
revealing its bitter fruit to the Muslim world, the manifest failure of
Islamic revivalism means that there is no remaining theological
safe-haven left where Islam can hide. The spiritual disorientation caused
by revivalist movements, which only bring conflict and death instead of
the promised utopia, will increasingly lead some Muslims to agree with
the Dutch parliamentarian Geert Wilders, that 'Islam is the problem'.
While some will welcome this development, it will almost certainly
lead to increasing political and social destabilization of Muslim
societies, including aggressive backlash reactions in the form of
attempts to shore up Islam's credibility. Communism, another utopian
ideology, was also discredited due to its many abject failures, from
Stalin to Pol Pot, but this did not prevent some from remaining true
believers, even to this day.
The Australian Imams Council, in response to reports of under-age
marriages among Australian Muslims, recently
stated "any religion ... should not be held accountable for
violations by its followers." Yet this is the nub of the matter and
a naming of an anxiety gripping the Muslim world: Muslims will hold Islam
accountable when Islamic revivalists promise utopia but deliver chaos and
human rights abuses.
The Iranian nuclear threat is serious, not only because of traditional
Shi'ite infidel hatred, but also because Iran's leaders are undoubtedly
aware that the hold of Islam upon ordinary Iranians is slipping away.
Spiritually, the revolution has failed. A nuclear bomb could be deployed
as a desperate ploy to shore up Islam's credibility. It is the
unpredictability of such 'backlash' reactions to the decline of Islam
that is particularly concerning in the times ahead.
The religion of Islam has long been regarded by Muslims as a
prestigious brand, a symbol of stability in Islamic politics. Thus
politicians would be obliged to advertize their Islamic credentials. If
Islam itself loses credibility– which is already happening – a spiritual
vacuum of considerable proportions will be created. How this vacuum is
filled will be difficult to predict, but what we can be sure of is that
revivalism and the revivalists will not go quietly.
Fasten your seat-belts: the world will be in for quite a ride in the
years to come, as Muslims – who constitute around a quarter of the
world's population – struggle to make theological sense of the trashing
of their religion's utopian vision. It is one thing to blame the infidels
for this – or the proxy tyrants which revivalists claim the West has
foisted on the Muslim world – what is more threatening by far is the damage
being done to Islam's name by revivalist Muslims themselves.
Dr. Mark Durie is a theologian, human rights activist, Anglican
pastor, a Shillman-Ginsburg Writing Fellow at the Middle East Forum, and
Adjunct Research Fellow of the Centre for the Study of Islam and Other
Faiths at Melbourne School of Theology.
Related
Topics: Islam
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