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Reuters:
"As talks on a nuclear deal for Iran resumed in Vienna Tuesday, a
wide majority of U.S. senators urged President Barack Obama to insist
that any final agreement state that Iran 'has no inherent right to
enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.' That lack of
entitlement was one of several principles the 83 senators outlined in the
letter. They urged Obama to 'insist upon their realization in a final
agreement' that six world powers and Iran are hoping to hammer out by
late July. The senators also want to prevent Iran from ever having the
capacity to build nuclear weapons. The initiative in the 100-member
chamber was spearheaded by Robert Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat and the
chairman of the foreign relations committee, and Lindsey Graham, a South
Carolina Republican. Whether Iran should be able to enrich low-level
uranium for use in nuclear power plants is one of many issues expected to
be addressed in this week's talks on a comprehensive agreement over its
nuclear program. Such uranium can be further enriched to be used in
nuclear weapons... The senators also wrote in the letter that any final
agreement must dismantle Iran's nuclear weapons program and prevent it
from ever having a uranium or plutonium path to a nuclear bomb... In the
House of Representatives, 395 lawmakers in the 435-member chamber also
sent a letter to Obama, asking him to push for a deal in which Iran would
not be able to build or buy a nuclear weapon." http://t.uani.com/1l3swx4
WSJ:
"Iran and six major powers discussed the future of Tehran's planned
heavy-water nuclear reactor Wednesday, diplomats said, as they prepared
to wrap up the second round of negotiations on a final, comprehensive
nuclear agreement due by mid-July. The future of the Arak reactor, which
under Iran's current plans could produce plutonium for a bomb, was one of
the toughest issues to resolve ahead of last November's six-month interim
accord between Iran and the six power group. The next round of high-level
talks will take place on April 7-9 in Vienna diplomats said... Iranian
and western officials have remained hopeful about the talks, saying a
July 20 deadline remains plausible... The July 20 deadline could be
extended if both sides agree. Still, Iranian and western officials said
for now, negotiations are focused more on laying out general positions
and possible red lines on the web of tough issues the two sides will have
to crack in coming months. 'We are not doing the hard-core negotiations
at this stage,' said one western diplomat. That is more likely to come in
May and June, the person said." http://t.uani.com/1fHgZeS
Reuters:
"How to deal with the Arak plant is expected to be among several
thorny issues to be tackled in this week's round of talks between Iran
and the six global powers in Vienna, with the aim of resolving the
decade-old nuclear dispute by late July... 'There are different ways of
making sure that the reactor can't produce large quantities of
plutonium,' said Gary Samore, until last year the top nuclear
proliferation expert on U.S. President Barack Obama's national security
staff. 'I think it is much easier for the Iranians to compromise on a
research reactor than it is for them to compromise on the enrichment
program,' Samore told Reuters, referring to Iran's existing, and much
larger, operations to refine uranium...Salehi did not spell out what kind
of alterations he might have in mind, and Samore said it was 'very
unclear' whether Iran would be willing to undertake the big changes to
the reactor core that would be required to address Western misgivings.
'Presumably the Iranians will want to make fairly cosmetic changes that
would allow them to run the reactor at much higher power levels and
therefore to produce more plutonium,' he said. In contrast, the powers -
the United States, France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia - 'will
want to make pretty extensive and fundamental changes to the reactor that
won't be easily reversible.'" http://t.uani.com/1lOstCA
Sanctions Relief
Trend:
"Two Chinese companies have been selected to build a number of
railway projects in Iran. The chairman of the city council of Iran's holy
city of Qom, Seyed Mohammad Atashzar, announced March 17 that China's
Norinco Company has been selected to build monorail and subway projects.
At the same time an announcement was made that CITIC will also build a
tram project, Iran's Donya-e-Eqtesad newspaper reported on March 18.
China's CITIC Company signed a memorandum of understanding with the
municipality of Tabriz, the provincial capital of Iran's East Azerbaijan
province. Norinco has announced its readiness to sign a $834million (€600
million) deal to implementing a subway and tramway project." http://t.uani.com/1cZoV0c
Human Rights
Reuters:
"An Iranian woman sentenced to die by stoning for adultery and later
given a 10-year jail term instead has been allowed to leave prison, the
judiciary said, in a new twist to a case that has triggered years of
criticism of Iran's rights record. A judiciary spokesman told Reuters
that Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani had been given 'a leave' from prison
several weeks ago for good behaviour. He said, without elaborating, that
the decision was a sign of 'our religion's leniency towards women'. There
was no immediate word on whether the release was permanent or whether it
was subject to some form of probation. Ashtiani, who has two children,
was convicted of adultery and complicity in the murder of her husband in
2005. A court sentenced Ashtiani to be stoned in 2006 but the sentence
was suspended in 2010 in the face of international pressure on Tehran.
Her sentence was then reduced to 10 years, for being an accessory to her
husband's murder." http://t.uani.com/PP7G7I
Reuters:
"European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton on Tuesday
defended her talks with human rights activists during a recent visit to
Iran, saying meeting dissidents is a central part of her official
travels. Speaking on the sidelines of talks in Vienna between Iran and
six world powers on Tehran's contested nuclear program, coordinated by
Ashton, her spokesman said meetings with civil society representatives
abroad were 'quite normal'. A day before, Iran's official IRNA news
agency said, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had canceled a customary
dinner with Ashton on the eve of the talks due to her 'undiplomatic'
behavior, an apparent reference to the Tehran meeting. Iran has also
warned the Austrian embassy in Tehran after it hosted a meeting between
Ashton and six Iranian women on March 8 that such contacts could
jeopardize relations between the Islamic Republic and Europe, according
to Iranian media. 'She always sees civil society representatives,
particularly women, when she travels to a country,' Michael Mann told
reporters in Vienna. 'It was the same when she went to Iran,' he
said." http://t.uani.com/1otGgQD
Domestic
Politics
WashPost:
"As the Iranian year draws to a close, leaders here are attempting
to manage the expectations of a public who have seen few signs of the
economic improvement promised by President Hassan Rouhani when he took
office in August. Despite some progress toward a lasting nuclear deal
that could potentially end years of crushing sanctions, fiscal growth has
been slow, and many here worry that the incoming year - 1393 on the
Iranian calendar - will bring even leaner times... While currency rates
have stabilized at more than 10 percent above where they were when
Rouhani was elected last June, little has changed for most Iranians, who
are struggling to make ends meet... In its annual report, the Ministry of
Economics and Finance said Iran is still suffering from high inflation
and deep stagnation, which has led to negative growth of more than 5
percent in the past year. The continued bad news has prompted Iran's supreme
leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to ask Iranians to embrace what he calls
a 'resistance economy,' which means more reliance on domestic production
and less rampant consumption of imports." http://t.uani.com/1gP2qqs
Opinion &
Analysis
Iranian Foreign Minister
Javad Zarif in FT: "At last it seems realistic to
hope for a resolution to the unnecessary crisis surrounding Iran's
peaceful nuclear programme. In large part that is because attitudes
towards my country are changing. It is now recognised that Iranian
scientists have mastered nuclear technology - and it is widely accepted
that the knowledge we have attained cannot be wished away. There is also
a growing appreciation that Iran does not have any interest in nuclear
weapons. True, we live in a volatile neighbourhood. Yet we have always
been clear that pursuing nuclear weapons - or even being wrongly
suspected of doing so - would put our national security in jeopardy...
The option of a nuclear weapon would harm our security, putting at risk
our relative advantage in conventional forces. Instead, we must win the
confidence of actors who have worried unnecessarily about Iranian
strength. Iran cannot expect to possess a meaningful nuclear deterrent,
either directly or through proxies... While some in the west may have
entertained illusions in the past, few now doubt that the only way to
ensure that Iran's nuclear energy programme will remain exclusively
peaceful is to reach a mutually acceptable agreement. This shift did not
occur overnight. It was prompted by the realisation that coercion,
pressure and sanctions only result in more centrifuges, more resentment
and deeper mistrust... Iranian engagement is not a means to an end but a
national security priority. To be absolutely clear, we are not
negotiating for the sake of negotiating, nor in order to gain time. We
have shown once again that we keep our word. As the IAEA recently
confirmed, we have kept all the promises we have made. It is now time for
our counterparts to keep their side of the bargain. As we enter talks on
the comprehensive nuclear deal, our counterparts will have to make tough
choices. They will have to back up rhetoric with action. Some of them
will have to spend copious amounts of political capital to remain
credible before the international community. Others, who have grown
comfortable with the status quo, will have to scramble to reposition
themselves. One thing that everyone will have to do is show courage - far
more than has been displayed so far." http://t.uani.com/OwrBaJ
Michael Singh in
Arms Control Today: "In the debate over sanctions on
Iran-their role in bringing Tehran to the negotiating table and their
proper place in U.S. diplomatic strategy in the future-scant attention
has been paid to a major shift in the negotiating position of the P5+1,
the group of six countries (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United
Kingdom, and the United States) that is negotiating with Tehran over the
Iranian nuclear program. No longer is the P5+1 demanding that Iran halt
uranium enrichment. Indeed, in the November 24 first-step nuclear accord,
the Joint Plan of Action,1 the P5+1 all but concedes that Iran will be
permitted to enrich in perpetuity. In separate comments that have quickly
become conventional wisdom among Iran analysts, U.S. negotiators now
characterize their previous position that Iran should halt enrichment as
'maximalist.' Although undoubtedly expedient, this shift away from a
zero-enrichment negotiating position is misguided and unnecessary. The
U.S. shift away from zero enrichment to limited enrichment represents a
significant diplomatic victory for Iran. For the last decade, the
position of the EU-3 (France, Germany, and the UK) and then the P5+1 had
been that Iran must 'suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing
activities, including research and development.' This position was
enshrined as an Iranian obligation in a series of UN Security Council
resolutions. Iran, however, asserted a 'right to enrich' and refused to
halt enrichment after resuming it when nuclear talks with the European
Union broke down in 2005. This difference formed the core of the
confrontation that subsequently developed between Iran and the allies.
Beginning in 2005, the United States, the EU, and others imposed onerous
sanctions on Iran, effectively cutting the country off from the global
financial system and sharply curtailing its oil revenues and other forms
of trade. Nevertheless, it was not Iran but the P5+1 that flinched first.
In October 2009, the allies proposed a fuel swap, under which Iran would
ship low-enriched uranium out of the country in exchange for fuel plates
for its Tehran Research Reactor, which uses uranium enriched to a higher
level to produce medical isotopes. The proposal did not explicitly
recognize Iran's claimed right to enrich, but seemed to implicitly accept
that Iran would continue enriching uranium to a low level of 5 percent or
less. The November 24 joint plan represents the culmination of this
shift. Iran, which is a net exporter of fossil fuels and electricity, has
insisted that it desires enrichment solely for peaceful purposes. The
text of the joint plan indicates that Iran will be permitted a 'mutually
defined enrichment program with mutually agreed parameters consistent
with practical needs.' The notion that Iran has any practical need for
enrichment, however, is a dubious one. Iran is blessed with abundant
resources of oil and natural gas, so much so that it was one of the
world's leading exporters of these fuels before the recent sanctions. It
provided refined fuel to domestic consumers at deeply subsidized rates,
making Iranian per capita consumption of gasoline among the highest in
the world. Even if one puts this aside and accepts Tehran's argument that
it wants to diversify its energy supply for environmental and other reasons,
enriching uranium makes little sense. Because importing fuel is much more
economical, very few non-nuclear-weapon states enrich their own uranium.
Iran may claim that it does not want to import reactor fuel-although this
is precisely what it does for the Bushehr reactor-so that it can ensure a
secure supply. Because Iran has minimal uranium reserves, however, it
would remain dependent on imports of natural uranium. Indeed, Iran's two
reported uranium mines together annually produce insufficient uranium for
even a single 1,000-megawatt reactor. As former Los Alamos National
Laboratory Director Siegfried Hecker and former Secretary of Defense
William Perry recently observed, 'Iran can never become self-sufficient'
in its nuclear energy program. Iran's energy security would be far better
served by reducing its reliance on imports of refined petroleum and
natural gas and lowering domestic consumption... In short, Iran has no
'practical need' for uranium enrichment, unless its actual desire is to
build or preserve the option to build a nuclear weapon. Indeed, the
Iranian government has not even convinced its own people that its
intentions are peaceful. The poll cited above finds that 55 percent of
Iranians believe that Iran 'has ambitions to produce nuclear
weapons.'" http://t.uani.com/1paRyHV
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