Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Eye on Iran: IAEA Worried about Slow Progress in Iran Nuclear Probe









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Reuters: "The U.N. nuclear watchdog is concerned about Iran's current lack of engagement with an investigation into its suspected atomic bomb research, ahead of a deadline next month for Tehran to step up cooperation, diplomatic sources said on Tuesday. Western officials want Iran to address questions by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on allegations of past efforts to develop a nuclear weapons capability, something the country denies. They say Iran clarifying the IAEA's concerns would also influence a diplomatic push by six world powers to negotiate an end to a decade-old standoff over the Islamic Republic's nuclear program, suggesting some sanctions relief may depend on it... It rejects the IAEA's suspicions as based on false and fabricated information from its enemies, but has promised, since pragmatist Hassan Rouhani became president in mid-2013, to work with the Vienna-based U.N. agency to clear them up. Under a phased cooperation pact hammered out late last year, an attempt to jumpstart the long-stalled IAEA investigation, Iran agreed two months ago to implement five nuclear transparency measures by Aug. 25, two of which directly dealt with the nuclear bomb inquiry. However, so far there appears to have been little - if any - movement by Iran to engage on them, the sources said on condition of anonymity." http://t.uani.com/1pFaqQr

Reuters: "Iran said on Wednesday nuclear talks with six world powers would resume in early September, according to state television, after both sides agreed to continue talking for four more months to try to reach a final agreement on Tehran's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/1noGLfI

NYT: "Rarely has a president been confronted with so many seemingly disparate foreign policy crises all at once - in Ukraine, Israel, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere - but making the current upheaval more complicated for Mr. Obama is the seemingly interlocking nature of them all. Developments in one area, like Ukraine, shape his views and choices in a crisis in another area, like the Middle East. The crosscurrents can be dizzying. Even as Mr. Obama presses Russia to stop fomenting a virtual civil war in Ukraine, he is trying to collaborate with Moscow in a diplomatic campaign to force Iran to scale back its nuclear program. Even as he pressures Iran over its nuclear program, he finds himself on the same side as Tehran in combating a rising Sunni insurgency in Iraq. Even as he sends special forces to help squelch those insurgents, he is trying to help their putative allies against the government in Syria next door... 'It's a very tangled mess,' said Gary Samore, a former national security aide to Mr. Obama and now president of United Against Nuclear Iran, an advocacy group. 'You name it, the world is aflame. Foreign policy is always complicated. We always have a mix of complicated interests. That's not unusual. What's unusual is there's this outbreak of violence and instability everywhere. It makes it hard for governments to cope with that.'" http://t.uani.com/1pFbbZO
   

Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Tehran Times: "The Iranian foreign minister said on Tuesday that Tehran's enrichment capacity, the Arak heavy-water reactor, and the sanctions against the country are the main sticking points in the talks between Iran and the major powers. Mohammad Javad Zarif, who is the chief Iranian nuclear negotiator, also said that Iran's position on the issue of the number of centrifuge machines that Tehran would be allowed to maintain under a final nuclear deal is clear, adding, 'The other side's insistence in this regard is ineffective.' ... Elsewhere in his remarks, Zarif said that Iran's negotiating partners are aware of the fact that the only solution to the nuclear issue is to reach an agreement. 'They have seen that exerting pressure on the Iranian people is futile,' he added." http://t.uani.com/1pFifFO

Tasnim (Iran): "Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif made it clear that uranium enrichment activities will certainly continue on Iran's soil. 'Today, there is no discussion whether Iran has the right to carry out (uranium) enrichment or not. Enrichment will be taking place inside Iran,' Zarif said in a televised interview on Tuesday. He said there might be a few number of countries raising some discussions regarding Tehran's uranium enrichment activities, but the point is that two conferences of the parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), one in 1990 and another in 2010, have already stipulated that Iran 'has the right to enrichment.' The minister explained that the industrial scale of uranium enrichment in Iran signifies the peaceful nature of its nuclear activities." http://t.uani.com/1nB8PhF

Sanctions Relief

Reuters: "India's crude imports from Iran rose by a third in the first half of the year, data from trade sources showed, after the shipments were boosted following an interim deal to slow Tehran's nuclear activity and ease Western sanctions. India, Iran's top oil client after China, raised the imports to some of the highest levels in nearly two years in the first quarter, partly to make up for deep cuts in 2013 due to the lack of insurance coverage for refineries processing Iranian oil. Intake rates have eased off since but are still running significantly higher than last year. Indian refiners shipped in 281,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Iran between January and June, up from 211,400 bpd in the same period a year ago, data on tanker arrivals from trade sources shows." http://t.uani.com/1qzPSya

Trend: "Iranian carmaker, Iran Khodro, will manufacture new cars in cooperation with Chinese state-owned automobile manufacturer Dongfeng Motor Corporation. Iran Khodro CEO Hashem Yekkeh Zare' said that the share of Chinese partners will not be more than 10 percent in future joint ventures, the Tasnim news agency reported on July 23. The Iranian carmaker plans to produce 2700 cars in the current Iranian year, which ends in March 2015, he added. The company is also planning to boost cooperation with Peugeot and find a non-French renowned international partner, as well, he noted. On May 5, Yekkeh Zare' said Peugeot should end its assembling works and focus on manufacturing products jointly with the Iranian company." http://t.uani.com/1rsJk2g

Terrorism

The Hill: "The House on Tuesday passed legislation to impose further sanctions extremist group Hezbollah's foreign assets. Passed 404-0, the measure would slap sanctions on Hezbollah's foreign assets, international narcotics trafficking rings and its television station, Al-Manar. 'Today, we have an opportunity to place a critical blow to Hezbollah,' said the bill's sponsor, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.). 'We must pass this legislation to make sure that we can do is cripple their ability to finance and put people out of harm's way.' Specifically, it would direct the Treasury Department to prohibit maintaining a payable-through account in the U.S. by a foreign financial institution that knowingly helps Hezbollah's activities." http://t.uani.com/1nB4L0X

Human Rights

Trend: "In its new report published on July 22, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) has warned about prevalence of the child marriage around the world... The latest statistics released by Iran's National Organization for Civil Registration indicates that over one third of women who married in the nine-month period from March to Dec. 2013 were under 19. Number of girls under the age of 19 who were married in the mentioned period stood at 208,859, with 30,956 of these girls were married under age 15. The organization put the total number of marriages in Iran at 579,871 during the period. The official statistics also show that 829,968 marriages were registered in Iran during the 12-month period from March 2012 to March 2013; of that amount 305,770 were child brides (36.8 percent). However some experts believe that the official figures do not tell the whole story, while in some regions underage marriages are not registered." http://t.uani.com/1r7i8E6

Foreign Affairs

WSJ: "Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is losing political support for his bid for a third term from core backers, including the country's Shiite religious establishment and ally Iran, say Iraqi officials. The shift, officials said, is prompting members of the premier's own alliance to reconsider their support and dimming the prospect of his stay in power. In recent days, high-level delegations of Iranian military officials and diplomats held a flurry of meetings in Baghdad and the Shiite religious capital Najaf, where they were told that Mr. Maliki, a Shiite, has lost the confidence of all but his most loyal inner circle, Iraqi officials with knowledge of the meetings said.  One Iraqi official briefed on the meetings said Iranian representatives signaled during their visit that Tehran has 'really started to lean away from Maliki as a candidate.' ... Iran played a key role in Mr. Maliki's rise to power, and senior Iranian officials have defended his rule even since the latest crisis began." http://t.uani.com/1rAQwe9

Al-Monitor: "The progress of the Islamic State and its allies in Iraq and approach to Baghdad, which represents an Iranian red line, has been mirrored in the southern Arabian Peninsula by the advancement of the Houthi forces to the point of their approaching the gates of Sanaa. With the Middle East a chessboard in a match between Tehran and Riyadh, some Saudis are drawing parallels between current events, theorizing that if Baghdad or part of it falls into the hands of Sunni groups, Sanaa might well fall to Shiite groups. The Houthi advancement in Yemen is purely Yemeni, but this does not lessen the signicance of the ties between the Houthi movement and Iran. In 2013, US Sen. John McCain declared the Houthis in Yemen more dangerous than al-Qaeda, given the relationship between the Houthis and Iran and Tehran's agenda in the region." http://t.uani.com/1x0IMjP

Opinion & Analysis

David Albright, Andrea Stricker & UANI Advisory Board Member Olli Heinonen in ISIS: "The recent negotiations in Vienna have shown that the principles driving the positions of the 'The Six'--the United States, Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia--differ markedly from those of Iran. Based on several discussions with senior members of the Six, the principles underpinning a deal must include: 1) sufficient response time in case of violations; 2) a nuclear program meeting Iran's practical needs; 3) adequate irreversibility of constraints; 4) stable provisions; and 5) adequate verification. The Six want to ensure that Iran's nuclear program is peaceful and remains so against a backdrop of Iran's nearly twenty years of non-compliance with its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. These principles also reflect long experience in negotiating arms control and non-proliferation agreements and a recognition of the strengths and weaknesses in those agreements to date. Iran on the other hand has emphasized the principles of cooperation and transparency. These principles are predicated on its assertion that its word should be trusted, namely its pronouncement that it will not build nuclear weapons. These principles also reflect its long standing view that any agreement should have constrained verification conditions and minimal impact on its nuclear programs, even allowing for their significant growth, despite the current lack of economic or practical justifications for such growth. The Six have rejected many of Iran's negotiating positions because they can be undone on short order, offering little practical utility in constraining Iran's future abilities to build nuclear weapons. The Six note that Iran on numerous occasions in the past has shown a willingness to stop cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and reverse agreed upon constraints. The Six simply cannot agree to lift a robust and painstakingly built international sanctions regime on Iran in return for inadequate and reversible constraints. According to a senior U.S. official speaking about the recent negotiations in Vienna, Iran now has a chance to re-evaluate its positions and 'come to terms with reality.' By many accounts, Iran made few tangible concessions in the negotiations so far, but Iran left the recent negotiations in Vienna understanding that the Six will remain steadfast on key positions limiting Iran's nuclear programs. But Iran can be expected to try to increase pressure on the Six to weaken their principles. They must resist this pressure and remain loyal to their principles in order to obtain a good agreement." http://t.uani.com/1pFhf4H

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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