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Reuters:
"Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Sunday the
armed forces should increase their combat capability regardless of
political considerations, in an apparent allusion to continuing nuclear
talks with the West aimed at easing tension in the Middle East. 'Given
our vast maritime borders and the enemy's huge investments in this area,
our armed forces should continuously improve their (combat) readiness,
irrespective of political calculations,' Khamenei told a gathering of
senior navy officials during a ceremony to mark the 'Navy Week' in
Iran... In tandem with Rouhani's diplomatic overture, generals appointed
by Khamenei are maintaining a relentless war rhetoric and unveil on an
almost daily basis what they say are new innovations in weaponry. 'The
range of (our) missiles covers all of Israel today,' the chief of the
Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, said last week. 'That
means the fall of the Zionist regime, which will certainly come
soon.'" http://t.uani.com/1z7kzdR
AFP:
"Iran's auto industry has been a major casualty of penalties imposed
over the Islamic republic's nuclear programme, with production plummeting
and workers laid off because of the ensuing economic slowdown... But the
auto sanctions were lifted earlier this year after an interim nuclear
agreement was reached between Iran and world powers and a final accord is
still on the horizon, raising the prospect of better times for the
industry. That will draw international suitors to Tehran on Monday for
the second consecutive Iran Auto Show. Mercedes Benz, Volkswagen,
Renault, Peugeot, Kia and Toyota have confirmed... "The day the
nuclear deal is signed... business will pick up," said a foreign
auto expert who claims a preliminary agreement with Volkswagen's Skoda
has already been made. Hyundai and Fiat are also reportedly looking for
deals." http://t.uani.com/1vH7uaF
Reuters:
"Russia hopes a deal to supply grain and equipment to Iran in return
for oil can be reached soon, Russia's Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev
said on Sunday. 'It (the deal) will affect not only grain, there are
broad lists of goods ... We expect that (a deal) could be reached in the
near future,' Ulyukayev told reporters in Tehran, according to the RIA
news agency. In January, Reuters reported that Moscow and Tehran were
discussing a barter deal worth up to $20 billion that would see Moscow
buy up to 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil in exchange for Russian
equipment and goods. Such an agreement would enable Iran to significantly
raise oil exports despite sanctions over its nuclear programme, and give
the slowing Russian economy a much-needed boost. But it would also strain
relations between Moscow and the West at a time when they are already
frayed over the Ukraine crisis." http://t.uani.com/1y7zNRF
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
Reuters:
"Iran will convert more of its higher-grade enriched uranium into
reactor fuel under an interim nuclear deal with six world powers, making
the material less suitable for building atomic bombs, a diplomatic source
said on Monday... Iran earlier this year eliminated its stockpile of
uranium gas enriched to a fissile concentration of 20 percent, a
relatively short technical step from weapons-grade material. A large part
of it was processed into oxide. When the deal was first extended in July,
Iran undertook to move further away from weapons-usable material by
converting 25 kg of the higher-grade uranium oxide - a quarter of the
total - into nuclear fuel during the initial four-month extension. The
source, who declined to be named, said under the new extension Iran would
continue this work and suggested about 5 kg would be converted per month.
The details of the extended agreement have yet to be made public. In
July, a senior U.S. official said that once the oxide had become fuel
plates for a Tehran research reactor, Iran would 'find it quite difficult
and time-consuming' to use it in any nuclear bomb 'breakout
scenario.'" http://t.uani.com/1y3VZbB
Sanctions
Relief
Trend:
"French giant carmakers Renault and Peugeot will continue
cooperation with Iran. Jean-Christophe Quémard, Peugeot Operational
Director of Middle-East and Africa, said the company is interested in
launching production lines in Iran benefiting from state-of-the-art
technologies, Iran's Fars news agency reported on Dec. 1. He made the
remarks on the sidelines of the 2nd Iran Auto Industry International
Conference, which opened today in Tehran. Peyman Kargar, Renault Managing
Director for Middle East, said on the sidelines of the conference that
Renault sees Iran as a strategic partner and will continue making joint
ventures with Iranian companies. The company has the capacity to produce
300,000 cars in Iran, he added." http://t.uani.com/1A7tZXC
Trend:
"Iran's non-oil trade turnover (including condensates) surpassed
$65.7 billion during the first eight months of current Iranian fiscal
year (March 21- Nov. 22), Iranian Customs Administration reported Nov.
30. Iran's non-oil exports stood at $31.447 billion during the period,
19.72 percent more compared the 8-month period of last year(Iran's fiscal
year starts on March 21). Iran also imported about $34.254 billion worth
of goods during the period, which indicates a rise by 20.22 percent in
value year on year." http://t.uani.com/11HUFlX
Trend:
"Iran's Vice President for Planning and Strategic Supervision
Mohammad Baqer Nobakht said the inflation rate for the 12-month period to
the eighth Iranian calendar month (ended on November 21) hit 17.8
percent. 'The figure is 1.3 percent less than its preceding month,' he
said, Iran's Mehr News Agency reported on Nov. 26. 'The country's
point-to-point inflation in the mentioned month was 13.2 percent, while
the previous month it stood at 14.2 percent,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1vHi7dt
IRNA (Iran):
"A trade delegation comprising over 30 senior managers of Germany's
Near and Middle East Association will arrive in Tehran on December 6.
According to the official website of Trade Promotion Organization of
Iran, tpo.ir, during their four-day visit, the delegation will hold
meetings with the ministers of trade, energy and communications to
explore ways of broadening economic ties, according to Monday's edition
of 'Iran Daily'. Valiollah Afkhami-Rad, the head of TPOI, will host the
German delegation on Monday to discuss promotion of bilateral trade. The
German traders plan to hold meetings with Mehdi Karbasian, the head of
Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation
Organization, Gholamhossein Shafeie, the head of Iran's Chamber of
Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, and Mohammad Khazaei, the
head of the Organization for Investment, Economic and Technical
Assistance of Iran. The delegation is also scheduled to hold meetings
with the managing directors of Iran Khodro Diesel, Saipa, National
Iranian Copper Industries Company, Bank of Industries and Mines, and
Renewable Energy Organization of Iran." http://t.uani.com/1yBvlum
Trend:
"Finnish mining technology company Outotec signed a deal with
Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation (IMIDRO)
worth €9.3 million to transfer Nepheline syenite production technology.
The deal was signed on Saturday and the technology will be transferred
over the course of eight months, Iran's IRNA news agency reported on
November 23. The industrial use of Nepheline syenite includes
refractories, glass making, ceramics and, in pigments and fillers. It is
also used as construction facade, interior wall texture, and countertops.
The project is aimed to produce 200,000 tons of alumina powder and
150,000 tons of industrial salts per year. Iran needs around 800,000 tons
of alumina powder annually." http://t.uani.com/1tD7ILZ
Trend:
"Two Iranian companies have expressed readiness to invest around $1
billion in the implementation of the Imam Khomeini International Airport
development project. Managing Director of Iran's Airports Company
Mohammad Ilkhani said a memorandum of understanding has been signed with
the two companies, Iran's Fars news agency reported on November 22.
However, he did not provide details about the two companies. Meanwhile,
the managing director of one of the companies said €1.2 billion will be
invested in the project through a Chinese-French joint venture. China's
CSCEC and France's Lyon Airport will participate in the joint investment
plan, he added." http://t.uani.com/12jQKLS
Trend:
"Iranian Minister of Industries, Mines and Trade Mohammad Reza
Nematzadeh defended decision of issuing license for imports of Marlboro
cigarettes. He said that the cigarette brand producer is not related to
Israel, Iran's official IRNA news agency reported Nov. 30. He added that
after investigations it was clarified that the issue of ties between
Israel and Philip Morris Company is not true. So the ministry issued the
license for legal imports of Marlboro cigarettes to prevent smuggling,
Nematzadeh said. The ministry has issued necessary licenses for importing
and producing 12 billion Marlboro cigarettes, according to Iranian media
outlets which has triggered objections by Iranian hardliner MPs calling
the US firm a 'Zionist company.'" http://t.uani.com/1va7Nfr
Trend:
"Trend: Two Dutch and Russian firms are conducting pigging
operations on Iranian oil pipelines network. Qasem Arab Yarmohammadi, an
official with the Iranian Oil Pipelines and Telecommunications Company,
said there are over 14,000 kilometers of oil pipelines and
telecommunications network across the country, Iran's Mehr news agency
reported on No. 30. He did not provide any details about the foreign
companies." http://t.uani.com/1FINZD9
Sanctions
Enforcement & Impact
IHS Maritime:
"The government of Zanzibar terminated its agency agreement with
Philtex (Belize) Ltd, which is based in Dubai, effective from 13 October,
2014. Philtex had an exclusive ten year contract to manage the Tanzania
Zanzibar International Register of Shipping (TZIRS). In a notice issued
by Dr Malik Akil Juma, the principal secretary at the Ministry of
Infrastructure and Communications, he said that the 'government was
setting up an administrative office to manage TZIRS in Sharjah, UAE
supported in marketing on specific agreement by Alkhaleej Industries FZE,
UAE'. All ships registered under the TZIRS flag are now required to
report to the Zanzibar Maritime Authority within two months. The US
government has mounted pressure on the Zanzibar government, the
semi-autonomous island off of Tanzania, over the past couple of years to
sever ties with Philtex following allegations that the agency was
registering Iranian vessels under the Tanzanian flag, despite sanctions
against Iran. Zanzibar signed an agreement with Philtex in 2007,
registering about 406 ships. Last year, Minister for Infrastructure and
Communication, Rashid Seif Suleiman informed the House of Representatives
that it had deregistered 33 Iranian oil tankers." http://t.uani.com/1Cyb7pA
Terrorism
Trend:
"Iran has equipped Lebanese Hezbollah group with missiles with
pinpoint accuracy, Sheikh Naim Qassem, deputy secretary general of the
group said, Iran's Tasnim news agency reported Nov. 23. Iran not only has
shipped missiles to Lebanon, but also has trained the Hezbollah forces to
prepare and launch them, the Hezbollah senior official said. 'When we are
talking about the missile capability, it does not mean that only a number
of Iranian missiles are delivered to Hezbollah, but such a capability
includes the all necessary items for missiles, preparing, as well as
training the experts' Qassem underlined." http://t.uani.com/1rKXO0z
Human Rights
Independent:
"An Iranian woman has filmed herself defying Iran's restrictive laws
against women by dancing to a song by British pop group Little Mix with
her hijab around her shoulders. The unidentified young woman can be seen
energetically dancing on a train in Tehran while other passengers hold
the camera. Her dancing may seem innocuous enough, but the young woman is
actually breaking two laws in the ultra-conservative country, where
dancing in public is prohibited. The woman initially begins with her
hijab on her head, but her lively moves cause it to slide off. Other
female passengers appear to be trying not to look at her as she moves up
and down the carriage, while a couple agree to hold a mobile phone and
film her. The viral video was posted to the Stealthy Freedoms of Iranian
Women Facebook page, which has over 700,000 followers. Her dancing is all
the more brave in light of the punishments meted out to a group of young
Iranian men and women who were filmed dancing to the song 'Happy'. All
seven were given suspended sentences of prison time and 91 lashes after
posting their home made 'Happy in Tehran' music video on YouTube." http://t.uani.com/1rNywt6
Domestic
Politics
Trend:
"Iran's national currency has lost about 9 percent of its value
versus the US dollar during the last week. Today, each US dollar is sold
at 35,200 rials in the Iran's open foreign currencies market, while the
official USD rate offered by the Central Bank of Iran is about 26,846.
Iranian government calculates the state foreign trade based on official
USD rate, including oil revenues, non-oil export and imports. However,
most of private traders have no choice, but to purchase expensive US
dollar from open markets. During ex-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's
second term, Iran's rial lost its value by about four times. Each USD was
sold at 9,830 rials in 2009, but the figure reached 36, 000 in mid-2013,
when Ahmadinejad was replaced by Hassan Rouhani. During last 18 months of
Rouhani's presidency, the USD price in Iran's open markets was almost
stable around 31,000 to 32,000 rials, but during last week, the rial lost
its value against dollar significantly." http://t.uani.com/1A7tmx5
Foreign Affairs
FT:
"Bahrain's foreign minister says Gulf states are launching a joint
military command based in Saudi Arabia to counter threats from militant
jihadis and Shia Iran. Sheikh Khalid al-Khalifa said the joint command
force, which analysts say will eventually have several hundred thousand
soldiers under its control, would begin military operations after a Gulf
Co-operation Council summit due to take place later this month in Qatar.
The new command is to focus on defensive operations and will co-ordinate
with the GCC's naval command based in Bahrain and its air command in
Saudi Arabia... Sheikh Khalid, a member of the Bahraini royal family,
said the new military body, first mooted two years ago, would start
'working from now' to co-ordinate against what he said was a growing
threat from Iran and unrest in Yemen." http://t.uani.com/1zHzmMh
Press TV (Iran):
"Iran plans to host an international conference on violence and
extremism in the near future, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad
Zarif says. He made the remarks in a meeting with Nickolay Mladenov, the
special representative of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to Iraq, in
the Iranian capital Tehran on Sunday. Zarif added that distinguished
international and regional figures will attend the gathering entitled
'World against Violence and Extremism,' yet he did not provide any
details on the exact date and place of the conference." http://t.uani.com/1vZfPK6
Mehr (Iran):
"The International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People is
observed by the United Nations on or around November 29 each year. In a
statement released on this occasion on Saturday night, Iran's Ministry of
Foreign Affairs condemned the occupation of Palestine and the organized
inhuman crime of the Zionist regime against the residents of this holy
land for being the origin of one of the longest-running global crises.
The actions of the Zionist regime are the root of many problems and
conflicts not only in the Middle East and the Muslim world, but also on a
global scale, the statement read." http://t.uani.com/1tDefGf
Opinion &
Analysis
Eric Reeves in
WashPost: "It is not often that we're able to listen
in on the comments of senior officials in a government that stands
internationally accused of genocide. But that's exactly what we've been
given through the leaked minutes of a security meeting held Aug. 31 by
top military and security officials in Sudan. Prominent in the document
are plans for further genocidal tactics in parts of the country... Central
in the minutes is discussion of Khartoum's 'strategic relationship' with
Iran. Although Iran is ruled by a Shiite regime, it shares with Sunni
Sudan a commitment to both Islamism and international terrorism. The
minutes include discussion of the regime's having sent weapons to the New
Dawn Islamist movement in Libya. Maj. Gen. Hashim Abdalla Mohammed, chief
of Sudan's joint general staff, reveals a telling problem with the
Saudis: 'They found out about the weapons we sent by way of the Red Sea
to Abd al-Malik Al-Huthi's Shiia group in Yemen.' Al-Huthi's Shiite
terrorist organization controls large parts of western and northern Yemen
- bordering Saudi Arabia. In this joint commitment to Islamism and
terrorism, Sudan and Iran have what may be described as a strategic
relationship - precisely the description offered more than a dozen times
by the men at the Aug. 31 meeting. But this leaves Sudan with problems in
its relations with the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia, not least because
the Sudanese economy, after 25 years of mismanagement, is imploding.
Khartoum is obliged to play a double game. Hence, the comments by Gen.
Yehya Mohammed Kheir, minister of state for defense: 'We will not
sacrifice our relations with the Islamists and Iran for a relationship with
the Saudis and the Gulf states. What is possible is a relationship that
serves our mutual economic interests in terms of investment and
employment.' There is, of course, no true 'mutuality' to the relationship
as conceived here by Khartoum. Further, Gen. Mohamed Atta, head of
Sudan's National Intelligence and Security Services, acknowledges that
terrorism is a tool at Khartoum's disposal. The regime believes the
Saudis were complicit in the September 2013 uprising; thus the Saudis
fear, according to Atta, "we may use or release terrorist groups to
[seek] revenge." This would hardly be idle speculation on the
Saudis' part... The clear consensus emerging from the minutes is that
Islamism and support for radical Islamist groups are of preeminent importance
to Khartoum in its search for a place in a region made more complex by
the emergence of the Islamic State; this also dictates a 'strategic
relationship with Iran.' If so, it would be a strategy entirely in
character." http://t.uani.com/12eGkhN
Aaron David Miller
in LAT: "In the late 1960s, the Rolling Stones
recorded one of their classic tunes: 'You Can't Always Get What You
Want.' The song's philosophical message - to the extent Mick Jagger and
Keith Richards thought about it - seemed to suggest that there are times
in life when you can't get what you want (most everything). But you just
might get what you need (less than everything but still pretty darn
good). Based on my years in and around Middle East negotiations, that
tune pretty well summed up the approach to successful negotiations too.
In every negotiation that worked, nobody got everything they wanted, no
one got 100%. But they at least received what they really needed to make
the deal. In short, the perfect was not allowed to become the enemy of the
good. The Stones' message was clearly not on display in the talks between
six world powers and Iran last week in Vienna, certainly not on the part
of the Iranian negotiators and their leaders in Tehran. In these
so-called P5-plus-1 talks, U.S. negotiators may have hoped that Iran was
willing to conclude a deal based on needs, not wants. But Iran clearly
saw matters differently and felt little pressure to do a deal now. And
here's why. It's been evident for a good while that the negotiators in
Tehran, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and even President Hassan
Rouhani aren't running the show. No negotiator ever does. Leaders do. But
for talks on truly big issues to work, negotiators and leaders need to be
in sync. In this case, they're not. The gap between what Zarif and
Rouhani might have been willing to concede, particularly on Iran's
capacity to enrich uranium, and the red lines of the supreme leader,
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and those around him was simply too wide to make
a deal. And the negotiators clearly failed to persuade the harder line
mullahs - assuming they even tried - to be more flexible or of the
urgency of the situation. Iran's leverage and the integrity of the entire
negotiating enterprise will be much weaker, not stronger, in Washington
once a Republican Congress comes into session. Paradoxically for the
hard-liners, that's OK. But more pressure on Tehran probably would only
convince the mullahcracy that what the U.S. really wants is regime
change, not a change in behavior on the nuclear issue. It is true that
sanctions imposed by Washington, Europe and the U.N. Security Council
were crucial in getting Iran to the table. But that doesn't mean economic
and financial pressure is powerful enough to compel an agreement. Iran is
hurting from diminished oil sales, currency devaluation, budget deficits
and banking and financial restrictions. But Iran's capacity to withstand
economic pain and to engage in what the supreme leader calls a
'resistance economy' - one resistant to sanctions and outside economic
pressures - is much greater than we think. No doubt hard-line security
elites are also making tons of money from the black market. Tehran also
has been very agile in finding loopholes and cutting oil deals with
Russia and China. Iran also has no intention of throwing away billions
invested in its nuclear infrastructure. We can't underestimate how
important Iran's nuclear program is as a hedge against regime change and
as a symbol of its great power status in the region, particularly to many
hard-line conservative elites convinced that the U.S. wants the mullahs
gone. The nuclear issue has become part of Iran's identity. Defying the
West's effort to restrict that enterprise has become a matter of national
pride and dignity. Iran may not want to weaponize now. But those in
charge may well want the option to do so at some point of their choosing.
Iran isn't 10 feet tall, but the way the situation in the Middle East is
playing out may have persuaded the mullahs that Iran's centrality and
influence in U.S. policy is increasing. There is a view that America
needs Tehran to stabilize the situation in Iraq and in Syria, and to
fight Islamic State militants. Indeed, Iran may actually believe that
it's winning, that there is less urgency to settle the nuclear issue now
and much more incentive to not give in, and hope to gain more... So is a
deal going to be possible next year? As Secretary of State John F. Kerry
said in a news conference last week, it's hard to imagine that time is
going to make tough issues easier to resolve. Iran can't continue on its
merry way to becoming a nuclear threshold state and expect serious
sanctions relief. Right now, Iran isn't prepared to make a choice. Will
it in coming months? That's not at all clear, but one thing is. I'm pretty
sure the supreme leader isn't a Rolling Stones fan." http://t.uani.com/1wc4Axm
Phillip Smyth in
TNI: "The United Arab Emirates sent a major message
to Washington by their inclusion of specifically named, Iranian-backed
Shia jihadist organizations in a new list of terrorist organizations.
This list has come under a mixture of criticism, praise and some level of
confusion for some of its inclusions and exclusions. Much attention has
also been placed on the inclusion of Muslim Brotherhood-related organizations,
such as the U.S.-based Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR).
However, it is the addition of Iran's proxies that deserves equal
attention. Their presence represents the Gulf state's simmering tensions
with their neighbor across the Persian Gulf. The release of the list
takes on an added precedence in the context of Western and Iranian
leaders meeting in Vienna for negotiations over Iran's nuclear program.
For Abu Dhabi, it appears the present danger of Iran's proxies is just as
much of a pressing threat as Iran's nuclear ambitions. Of the
eighty-three listed groups, nine are direct Iranian proxies or contain
demonstrable levels of Iranian influence or support. The listed
organizations include groups operating in the Arabian Peninsula, including
the Houthis of Yemen, Hizballah al-Hijaz (A.K.A. Saudi Hizballah), and
"Hizballah in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)." Iraqi Shia
groups such as Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), the Badr Organization, Kata'ib
Hizballah (KH), Liwa Ammar Ibn Yasir (LAIY), and Liwa al-Yum al-Mawud
also found places on the list. Even a Shia militia which has essentially
become a synonym for the Iranian-organized and -led Shia jihad in Syria,
Liwa Abu Fadl al-Abbas (LAFA), was named as a terrorist group. It's
highly probable that Abu Dhabi released the names of these groups as a
further way to snub the United States for a perceived lack of action
against Iran's and its proxies' moves in the Gulf and/or highlight that
the Gulf is not going to march in lockstep with Washington on Iraq or
issues dealing with Iran. Speculation on the Gulf-Washington alliance
aside, the UAE clearly views Iran's Shia proxy militias and more covert
organizations as a major and expanding threat. What does the inclusion of
these specific groups mean? ... The inclusion of these Iranian-backed
Iraqi Shia militia creations is another example of the increasing threat
they pose to the Gulf states. Throughout 2011, KH and AAH forces attacked
Coalition targets as a way to show support for their oppressed
coreligionists in Bahrain. During the summer of 2011, KH threatened South
Korean companies operating in Kuwait as part of a new port project. The
same group attacked the port in June 2011 with rockets. In November 2013,
another Iraqi Shia proxy of Iran launched mortars at Saudi Arabia. In
late-December 2013, a speedboat loaded with Iranian-made weapons was
seized off of Bahrain... Pitfalls with the list aside, the UAE is sending
a very clear message to regional powers and to the United States. With
Iraq and the possible U.S. courting of Iran's proxies, the UAE, as with
other Gulf allies, likely feels isolated by its longtime ally. What
appears to be cognitive dissonance on behalf of Washington-where Iran's
proxies are possibly being secretly engaged in Iraq, all while they
actively threaten and target Gulf states-could have been the spur for the
list's publication. The most likely hastily arranged list of groups
indicates that the Emirates wanted to publish a list of relatively
well-known Iranian proxies. Thus, Iran's activities were put in the
spotlight, along with a not-so-secret nudge to Washington." http://t.uani.com/1wc5R7z
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