Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Eye on Iran: Obama Administration Urges Congress to Delay New Iran Sanctions









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LAT: "With negotiations over Iran's nuclear program about to resume, the Obama administration urged Congress on Monday to delay imposing any new economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, argued that piling new economic penalties on Iran would undermine the negotiations and lead other nations to blame the United States for their collapse. Previous sanctions have helped force Iran to negotiate over demands from the West that it roll back its nuclear program. 'We will go from isolating Iran to isolating ourselves,' she said in a speech at the University of Louisville, flanked by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky)... Power said the United States is unified with the five other countries in pressing Iran for an agreement to limit its nuclear activities. But if new sanctions were imposed, 'Iran would be able to blame the U.S. for sabotaging the negotiations,' she said. New penalties would also undermine the current sanctions on Tehran, Power said. Countries that have supported worldwide reductions in purchases of Iranian oil would lose confidence in the collective effort and would ease their support for enforcement of its rules, she said. 'We will go from a position of collective strength to a position of individual weakness,' she said." http://t.uani.com/14VCdYq

Reuters: "Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday that countries behind the fall in global oil prices would regret their decision and warned that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait would suffer alongside Iran from the price drop. 'Those that have planned to decrease the prices against other countries will regret this decision,' Rouhani said in a speech broadcast on state television as oil plunged to near six year lows on international markets. 'If Iran suffers from the drop in oil prices, know that other oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will suffer more than Iran,' he added. Oil prices have fallen 60 percent from their June 2014 peaks, driven down by rising production, particularly of U.S. shale oil, and weaker-than-expected demand in Europe and Asia." http://t.uani.com/1yfmy0w

Shana (Iran): "International sanctions have reduced $100 billion of Iran's revenues from oil sales over the past three years, a senior official said. 'Over the past three years, Iran's oil exports have declined by 1.5 mb/d [due to tough international sanctions] and it has inflicted more than $100 billion in losses on Iran,' Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Expediency Council, said. He said that sanctions slapped on Iran three years ago pushed Iran's oil exports down from 2.5 mb/d to below 1 mb/d. 'Over the past two months, price sanctions which happened with the help of countries like Saudi Arabia have caused a 50-percent decline in Iran's oil price,' said Rezaei. He said that Iran would see its petrodollars fall by another $100 billion in the coming three years should oil prices keep falling." http://t.uani.com/17BiPBV

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

AFP: "US President Barack Obama told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that America was committed to a 'comprehensive' nuclear deal with Iran, and said that Palestinian ICC membership was not 'constructive,' officials said. 'The United States is focused on reaching a comprehensive deal with Iran that prevents Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and verifiably assures the international community of the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program,' the White House said in a statement... The leaders spoke by telephone ahead of a meeting between Secretary of State John Kerry and his Iranian counterpart later this week, in which the US top diplomat hopes to accelerate the so-called P5+1 talks between Iran and Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States plus Germany." http://t.uani.com/1z5F2Ue

Al-Monitor: "Iran's Atomic Energy Organization head Ali Akbar Salehi has spoken on Iranian television about the political and technical setbacks in the most recent nuclear talks between Iran the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1)... Salehi said, 'We voluntarily agreed to enrich up to 5%. We are discussing the volume of enrichment and production for one year. Right now we have 9,000 working centrifuges that produce 2.5 tons of uranium, while our needs are 30 tons per year, but they will not approve of this rate and say this is too much and that we should lower the number of centrifuges and convert the enriched uranium to 5%.' Iran currently purchases nuclear fuel for its Bushehr reactor from Russia, but that contract runs out in eight years. Salehi said that Iran had expressed its needs to the International Atomic Energy Agency and said that in eight years Iran would need to secure more fuel, 30 tons for one year... According to Salehi, the P5+1 is not opposed to Iran reaching 190 SWU, but has proposed 'between 10 to 20 years' rather than eight. On an Associated Press report that Iran had tentatively agreed to ship a large portion its uranium stockpile to Russian for conversion into reactor fuel, Salehi said that Iran 'for now has denied this issue.' When asked whether Iran is not willing to transfer fuel for now but may do so later, Salehi said, 'We denied the report from the American news agency. At the same time, we have to see what they refer to as fuel: UF6 5%, fuel rod, fuel pellets, natural uranium and so on. These are all fuel. We have to see what the meaning of fuel is.'" http://t.uani.com/1xWZ41n

Press TV (Iran): "Iran's nuclear chief says the country has answered all the questions raised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over Tehran's nuclear energy program. 'Western countries attached a political history to our country's nuclear issue, while we answered all their 18 technical questions,' said the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, in a televised program on Saturday. He said the six countries are still expecting answers from Iran as they have politicized the issue. 'The P5+1 group has announced that there is still room for discussion on two questions. The IAEA has, however, almost accepted all the answers.' Salehi underlined that Iran's nuclear issue can be settled through political will. 'Our country's nuclear issue is not technical and can be resolved only through political will,' he noted." http://t.uani.com/1BZWLcV

Fars (Iran): "Deputy Head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) Asqar Zarean announced on Wednesday that the country plans to unveil new nuclear achievements on April 9. 'The AEOI has acquired the technology for the production of different types of lasers, and there are more successes which will be declared soon,' Zarean said, addressing a number of Iranian officials during a tour of Iran's nuclear installations in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.  Stressing that the sanctions couldn't undermine the country's determination to make progress in using the civilian nuclear technology, he announced that the Iranian nuclear experts' new achievements will be unveiled on April 9 (the National Nuclear Technology Day in Iran). In relevant remarks late in December, Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Akbar Salehi announced that AEOI experts had built 7 new state-of-the-art laser systems for medical applications." http://t.uani.com/1BV8ewA

Sanctions Relief

Trend: "Chinese carmaker Lifan plans to produce 60,000 cars annually in Iran. Shang You, President of Lifan, said in a meeting with the managing director of Iranian carmaker Kerman Motor, it was decided that 60,000 cars to be assembled by the Iranian company in the next Iranian calendar year, which starts on March 21, Iran's Mehr news agency reported on Jan. 10. In line with the Iranian administration's policy, Lifan will move toward transferring the production of car parts to Iranian manufacturers, Shang You said." http://t.uani.com/1u0i9ug

Trend: "Iran's Energy Ministry has used $3 billion of the country's assets, which had been frozen in China due to international sanctions, in development projects. Alireza Daemi, Iranian Deputy Energy Minister, said three dams, namely Roudbar, Shafaroud, and Cheshmgir, and two power plants, namely Tabas and Parsian, are being established using the Chinese finance, Iran's Fars news agency reported on Jan. 12. Iran's $22 billion worth of assets has been frozen in China. The country is not able to transfer its exported oil money into the country due to international sanctions. Chinese companies have agreed to invest 2-3 times the sum in Iranian projects." http://t.uani.com/14r75zJ

Trend: "Iran is in talks with three Japanese and South Korean oil and gas companies to invest in its oil and gas projects, Head of Investment Committee of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) Asghar Soheilipour said. He said that Japan's Mitsubishi and South Korea's LG and Samsung are negotiating with NIGC to design, establish, and install gas refineries and pipelines, Iran's Mehr news agency reported on Jan. 13. Some Japanese and Italian companies have announced readiness to implement projects even before lifting the international sanctions, he noted." http://t.uani.com/1BiQxXN

Trend: "The number of foreign airlines active in Iran has dropped in the past few years. Iran's Fars News Agency reported that 27 foreign airlines were active in Iran in the previous Iranian calendar year (which ended March 20, 2014)... Corendon, Shaheen Air, Saudi Arabian Airlines, and Atlasjet were the most active international airlines in Iran in previous year." http://t.uani.com/1yciC0k

Trend: "A conference in London for introducing major Iranian oil industry projects was delayed again for the second time, Iran's ISNA news agency reported Jan. 13. The London Conference aims to provide multinationals with opportunities for development of oil and gas fields in Iran... The summit was earlier organized by CWC group for April 2014, however the group changed the date two times reportedly considering the restrictions related to international sanctions for active participation of major oil companies and financial institutions. The organizer group changed the date of conference to February 2015 first time... Now the London conference is scheduled for September 2015. Iran plans to introduce over 40 major oil industry projects at the conference." http://t.uani.com/1xX0Zmo

Iraq Crisis

Reuters: "An Iranian militiaman with a long record of battles in Iraq and Syria has died fighting Islamic State militants in Samarra, a major battleground north of Baghdad, Iranian newspapers reported on Monday. Mehdi Noruzi, a member of Iran's Basij militia nicknamed 'Lion of Samarra' by his fellow militiamen, was killed on Sunday while 'defending the oppressed people of Iraq and holy shrines against revisionist terrorists in Samarra', Fars said... Last month, an Iranian general was killed by sniper fire in Samarra, where a notable Shi'ite saint, Imam Hassan Askari, is buried." http://t.uani.com/1AW1nnJ

Human Rights

CPJ: "A new wave of arrests and prosecutions has been carried out by Iranian authorities in the past month, cementing the country's status as one of the world's leading jailers of journalists, the Committee to Protect Journalists said today. 'Iran has started the new year as it ended the old: by arresting journalists,' said CPJ's Middle East and North Africa program coordinator, Sherif Mansour. 'President Hassan Rouhani has not lived up to expectations that he would usher in a new era for the Iranian press. The very least he can do now is publicly and unequivocally call for their release.' Iranian journalist and blogger Saeed Pourheydar was arrested in Tehran on January 4, according to news reports." http://t.uani.com/1AJQumn

ICHRI: "Despite recent claims by state officials that the government has developed the ability to selectively block 'inappropriate and illegal' content and that smart filtering would be installed on the country's Internet gateways, and their assertion that they have already implemented such smart filtering on social networks such as Instagram, research by the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran indicates that social networks continue to be blocked through traditional methods such as blocking Internet addresses and IP's. However, state authorities are moving forward on the development of a user identification system that would strengthen the state's ability to selectively block access to online content from the user side, and to monitor and restrict the online activities of certain groups of users designated by the state." http://t.uani.com/1wUsfhw

Domestic Politics

RFE/RL: "'The parliament was...fully against sedition,' lawmaker Seyed Mahmud Nabavian said of a January 11 session. Speaking to the hard-line Fars news agency the following day, Nabavian, a cleric, added that those who were calling for ending the house arrest of Iranian opposition figures seek another 'sedition' -- borrowing the term that hard-liners in Iran use to refer to the antigovernment protests of 2009 and the opposition movement that was brutally suppressed. He was reacting to a Sunday speech by his conservative colleague, Ali Motahari, who in an open session of the parliament blasted the house arrest of Mir Hossein Musavi; Musavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard; and reformist cleric Mehdi Karrubi." http://t.uani.com/1IGNKbh

Opinion & Analysis

UANI Advisory Board Member Michael Singh in WSJ: "As a presidential candidate, Barack Obama derided as 'ridiculous' the idea 'that somehow not talking to countries is punishment to them.' Announcing his Cuba policy shift last month, Mr. Obama called the isolation of Havana an 'outdated approach that, for decades, has failed to advance our interests.' Indeed, diplomatic isolation-whether of Cuba, Iran, North Korea, or other states-does not have a stellar track record of influencing truculent regimes. What Mr. Obama did not acknowledge, however, is that engagement is no silver bullet in dealing with such regimes... The Obama administration often cites Iran as an example of the fruits of engagement, but it relies on a questionable narrative for this. President Obama inherited from his predecessor six U.N. Security Council sanctions resolutions, the U.S. financial sanctions framework, and the 'P5+1' talks. He largely continued those policies, initially with scant results. When a diplomatic breakthrough finally came, it was the result of three interrelated factors: the oil sanctions Congress imposed on Iran against the White House's wishes; Hasan Rouhani's election as president of Iran; and, perhaps most important, U.S. acquiescence in 2013 to long-held Iranian nuclear demands such as permitting Iran to enrich uranium indefinitely and keep its facilities at Arak, Natanz, and Forfow. Because of these moving parts-especially the U.S. concessions-the Iran example holds few lessons about the efficacy of engagement. The administration might have been able to achieve what it did-a more modest result than that for which it initially aimed-without its aggressive back-channel diplomacy; at the same time, that diplomacy, supported by other tools, might have accomplished the original, more ambitious U.S. aims. Iran does, however, offer a cautionary example of mistaking a tactic for a policy. The singular focus on engagement crowded out other tools that might otherwise have played a role in U.S. strategy. For example, the U.S. refrained from supporting mass protests in Iran in 2009 (an omission that Hillary Clinton, who was secretary of state at the time, recently said that she regretted), and discontinued efforts to bolster the credibility of U.S. military threats. Seeing engagement as an end rather than a means may also have driven the U.S. to accept negotiating outcomes previously considered unacceptable." http://t.uani.com/1y9Ki7O

Abdulrahman al-Rashed in Al Arabiya: "A recent Associated Press report spoke of Iran's increased domination over Iraq under the cover of supporting it against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) organization. According to the report's sources, the Iranians have sold Iraq nearly $10 billion worth of weapons to confront terrorism. These weapons include Kalashnikovs, rocket launchers and ammunition and the value of this weaponry may not even exceed $50 million! Of course, it's needless to explain that $10 billion is a massive amount enough to have bought advanced armory from prominent countries which produce military hardware instead of rusty simple arms from Iran. But the objective was to fund Iran's military needs during this phase in which it confronts domestic economic pressures. The Iraqis who are currently overjoyed with this Iranian support will in the future end up complaining about Tehran's domination over them. They will complain that they cannot freely take decisions according to their national interests. Iraq will then become submissive to Iran due to the latter's increased political and security influence - just as Lebanon came under Syria's influence in the 1970s when the latter's troops entered the country to save it from Palestinian militias and only withdrew after 30 years of a quasi-occupation and after a threat by the U.N. Security Council. Iraq, too, will become an Iranian farm which Iranian revolutionary guards, politicians, mediators and brokers exploit. Iraqis then will find problems coming from Iran increasing by the year, just like what happened to the Lebanese people who brought the Syrians into their country only to find out later that the chaos and violence of Palestinian militias were less than those coming the Syrian army. The Syrians controlled the Lebanese population and exploited the country and dictated all of its affairs, from the smallest of details to major decisions such as electing a president, a prime minister or a house speaker. They killed whoever disagreed with them. The Iranian regime will go as far as to humiliate the Iraqis after claiming credit for protecting Baghdad from an ISIS invasion. We all know that the terrorist organization ISIS turned away from the capital and headed towards Mosul and Kurdistan when the Iranians weren't even there to confront it. Shiite leaders will pay a higher price than others for the Iranian presence on Iraqi soil because Iranian influence will remain limited in Sunni areas no matter how expanded their military and security presence is in other parts of Iraq." http://t.uani.com/1suokeF
    

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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