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LAT:
"With negotiations over Iran's nuclear program about to resume,
the Obama administration urged Congress on Monday to delay imposing any
new economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Samantha Power, the
U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, argued that piling new economic
penalties on Iran would undermine the negotiations and lead other
nations to blame the United States for their collapse. Previous
sanctions have helped force Iran to negotiate over demands from the
West that it roll back its nuclear program. 'We will go from isolating
Iran to isolating ourselves,' she said in a speech at the University of
Louisville, flanked by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky)...
Power said the United States is unified with the five other countries
in pressing Iran for an agreement to limit its nuclear activities. But
if new sanctions were imposed, 'Iran would be able to blame the U.S.
for sabotaging the negotiations,' she said. New penalties would also
undermine the current sanctions on Tehran, Power said. Countries that
have supported worldwide reductions in purchases of Iranian oil would
lose confidence in the collective effort and would ease their support
for enforcement of its rules, she said. 'We will go from a position of
collective strength to a position of individual weakness,' she
said." http://t.uani.com/14VCdYq
Reuters:
"Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday that countries
behind the fall in global oil prices would regret their decision and
warned that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait would suffer alongside Iran from
the price drop. 'Those that have planned to decrease the prices against
other countries will regret this decision,' Rouhani said in a speech
broadcast on state television as oil plunged to near six year lows on
international markets. 'If Iran suffers from the drop in oil prices,
know that other oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait
will suffer more than Iran,' he added. Oil prices have fallen 60
percent from their June 2014 peaks, driven down by rising production,
particularly of U.S. shale oil, and weaker-than-expected demand in
Europe and Asia." http://t.uani.com/1yfmy0w
Shana (Iran):
"International sanctions have reduced $100 billion of Iran's
revenues from oil sales over the past three years, a senior official
said. 'Over the past three years, Iran's oil exports have declined by
1.5 mb/d [due to tough international sanctions] and it has inflicted
more than $100 billion in losses on Iran,' Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of
the Expediency Council, said. He said that sanctions slapped on Iran
three years ago pushed Iran's oil exports down from 2.5 mb/d to below 1
mb/d. 'Over the past two months, price sanctions which happened with
the help of countries like Saudi Arabia have caused a 50-percent
decline in Iran's oil price,' said Rezaei. He said that Iran would see
its petrodollars fall by another $100 billion in the coming three years
should oil prices keep falling." http://t.uani.com/17BiPBV
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
AFP:
"US President Barack Obama told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu that America was committed to a 'comprehensive' nuclear deal
with Iran, and said that Palestinian ICC membership was not
'constructive,' officials said. 'The United States is focused on
reaching a comprehensive deal with Iran that prevents Iran from
acquiring a nuclear weapon and verifiably assures the international
community of the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program,'
the White House said in a statement... The leaders spoke by telephone
ahead of a meeting between Secretary of State John Kerry and his
Iranian counterpart later this week, in which the US top diplomat hopes
to accelerate the so-called P5+1 talks between Iran and Britain, China,
France, Russia and the United States plus Germany." http://t.uani.com/1z5F2Ue
Al-Monitor:
"Iran's Atomic Energy Organization head Ali Akbar Salehi has
spoken on Iranian television about the political and technical setbacks
in the most recent nuclear talks between Iran the five permanent
members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1)... Salehi said,
'We voluntarily agreed to enrich up to 5%. We are discussing the volume
of enrichment and production for one year. Right now we have 9,000
working centrifuges that produce 2.5 tons of uranium, while our needs
are 30 tons per year, but they will not approve of this rate and say
this is too much and that we should lower the number of centrifuges and
convert the enriched uranium to 5%.' Iran currently purchases nuclear
fuel for its Bushehr reactor from Russia, but that contract runs out in
eight years. Salehi said that Iran had expressed its needs to the
International Atomic Energy Agency and said that in eight years Iran
would need to secure more fuel, 30 tons for one year... According to
Salehi, the P5+1 is not opposed to Iran reaching 190 SWU, but has
proposed 'between 10 to 20 years' rather than eight. On an Associated
Press report that Iran had tentatively agreed to ship a large portion
its uranium stockpile to Russian for conversion into reactor fuel,
Salehi said that Iran 'for now has denied this issue.' When asked
whether Iran is not willing to transfer fuel for now but may do so
later, Salehi said, 'We denied the report from the American news
agency. At the same time, we have to see what they refer to as fuel:
UF6 5%, fuel rod, fuel pellets, natural uranium and so on. These are
all fuel. We have to see what the meaning of fuel is.'" http://t.uani.com/1xWZ41n
Press TV (Iran):
"Iran's nuclear chief says the country has answered all the
questions raised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over
Tehran's nuclear energy program. 'Western countries attached a political
history to our country's nuclear issue, while we answered all their 18
technical questions,' said the head of the Atomic Energy Organization
of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, in a televised program on Saturday. He said
the six countries are still expecting answers from Iran as they have
politicized the issue. 'The P5+1 group has announced that there is
still room for discussion on two questions. The IAEA has, however,
almost accepted all the answers.' Salehi underlined that Iran's nuclear
issue can be settled through political will. 'Our country's nuclear
issue is not technical and can be resolved only through political
will,' he noted." http://t.uani.com/1BZWLcV
Fars (Iran):
"Deputy Head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) Asqar
Zarean announced on Wednesday that the country plans to unveil new
nuclear achievements on April 9. 'The AEOI has acquired the technology
for the production of different types of lasers, and there are more
successes which will be declared soon,' Zarean said, addressing a number
of Iranian officials during a tour of Iran's nuclear installations in
Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. Stressing that the sanctions couldn't
undermine the country's determination to make progress in using the
civilian nuclear technology, he announced that the Iranian nuclear
experts' new achievements will be unveiled on April 9 (the National
Nuclear Technology Day in Iran). In relevant remarks late in December,
Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Akbar Salehi
announced that AEOI experts had built 7 new state-of-the-art laser
systems for medical applications." http://t.uani.com/1BV8ewA
Sanctions
Relief
Trend:
"Chinese carmaker Lifan plans to produce 60,000 cars annually in
Iran. Shang You, President of Lifan, said in a meeting with the
managing director of Iranian carmaker Kerman Motor, it was decided that
60,000 cars to be assembled by the Iranian company in the next Iranian
calendar year, which starts on March 21, Iran's Mehr news agency
reported on Jan. 10. In line with the Iranian administration's policy,
Lifan will move toward transferring the production of car parts to
Iranian manufacturers, Shang You said." http://t.uani.com/1u0i9ug
Trend:
"Iran's Energy Ministry has used $3 billion of the country's
assets, which had been frozen in China due to international sanctions,
in development projects. Alireza Daemi, Iranian Deputy Energy Minister,
said three dams, namely Roudbar, Shafaroud, and Cheshmgir, and two
power plants, namely Tabas and Parsian, are being established using the
Chinese finance, Iran's Fars news agency reported on Jan. 12. Iran's
$22 billion worth of assets has been frozen in China. The country is
not able to transfer its exported oil money into the country due to
international sanctions. Chinese companies have agreed to invest 2-3
times the sum in Iranian projects." http://t.uani.com/14r75zJ
Trend:
"Iran is in talks with three Japanese and South Korean oil and gas
companies to invest in its oil and gas projects, Head of Investment
Committee of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) Asghar Soheilipour
said. He said that Japan's Mitsubishi and South Korea's LG and Samsung
are negotiating with NIGC to design, establish, and install gas
refineries and pipelines, Iran's Mehr news agency reported on Jan. 13.
Some Japanese and Italian companies have announced readiness to
implement projects even before lifting the international sanctions, he
noted." http://t.uani.com/1BiQxXN
Trend:
"The number of foreign airlines active in Iran has dropped in the
past few years. Iran's Fars News Agency reported that 27 foreign
airlines were active in Iran in the previous Iranian calendar year
(which ended March 20, 2014)... Corendon, Shaheen Air, Saudi Arabian
Airlines, and Atlasjet were the most active international airlines in
Iran in previous year." http://t.uani.com/1yciC0k
Trend:
"A conference in London for introducing major Iranian oil industry
projects was delayed again for the second time, Iran's ISNA news agency
reported Jan. 13. The London Conference aims to provide multinationals
with opportunities for development of oil and gas fields in Iran... The
summit was earlier organized by CWC group for April 2014, however the
group changed the date two times reportedly considering the
restrictions related to international sanctions for active participation
of major oil companies and financial institutions. The organizer group
changed the date of conference to February 2015 first time... Now the
London conference is scheduled for September 2015. Iran plans to
introduce over 40 major oil industry projects at the conference." http://t.uani.com/1xX0Zmo
Iraq Crisis
Reuters: "An Iranian militiaman with a long record of battles in
Iraq and Syria has died fighting Islamic State militants in Samarra, a
major battleground north of Baghdad, Iranian newspapers reported on
Monday. Mehdi Noruzi, a member of Iran's Basij militia nicknamed 'Lion
of Samarra' by his fellow militiamen, was killed on Sunday while
'defending the oppressed people of Iraq and holy shrines against
revisionist terrorists in Samarra', Fars said... Last month, an Iranian
general was killed by sniper fire in Samarra, where a notable Shi'ite
saint, Imam Hassan Askari, is buried." http://t.uani.com/1AW1nnJ
Human Rights
CPJ:
"A new wave of arrests and prosecutions has been carried out by Iranian
authorities in the past month, cementing the country's status as one of
the world's leading jailers of journalists, the Committee to Protect
Journalists said today. 'Iran has started the new year as it ended the
old: by arresting journalists,' said CPJ's Middle East and North Africa
program coordinator, Sherif Mansour. 'President Hassan Rouhani has not
lived up to expectations that he would usher in a new era for the
Iranian press. The very least he can do now is publicly and
unequivocally call for their release.' Iranian journalist and blogger
Saeed Pourheydar was arrested in Tehran on January 4, according to news
reports." http://t.uani.com/1AJQumn
ICHRI:
"Despite recent claims by state officials that the government has
developed the ability to selectively block 'inappropriate and illegal'
content and that smart filtering would be installed on the country's
Internet gateways, and their assertion that they have already
implemented such smart filtering on social networks such as Instagram,
research by the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran
indicates that social networks continue to be blocked through
traditional methods such as blocking Internet addresses and IP's.
However, state authorities are moving forward on the development of a
user identification system that would strengthen the state's ability to
selectively block access to online content from the user side, and to
monitor and restrict the online activities of certain groups of users
designated by the state." http://t.uani.com/1wUsfhw
Domestic
Politics
RFE/RL:
"'The parliament was...fully against sedition,' lawmaker Seyed
Mahmud Nabavian said of a January 11 session. Speaking to the hard-line
Fars news agency the following day, Nabavian, a cleric, added that
those who were calling for ending the house arrest of Iranian
opposition figures seek another 'sedition' -- borrowing the term that
hard-liners in Iran use to refer to the antigovernment protests of 2009
and the opposition movement that was brutally suppressed. He was
reacting to a Sunday speech by his conservative colleague, Ali
Motahari, who in an open session of the parliament blasted the house
arrest of Mir Hossein Musavi; Musavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard; and
reformist cleric Mehdi Karrubi." http://t.uani.com/1IGNKbh
Opinion &
Analysis
UANI Advisory
Board Member Michael Singh in WSJ: "As a
presidential candidate, Barack Obama derided as 'ridiculous' the idea
'that somehow not talking to countries is punishment to them.'
Announcing his Cuba policy shift last month, Mr. Obama called the
isolation of Havana an 'outdated approach that, for decades, has failed
to advance our interests.' Indeed, diplomatic isolation-whether of
Cuba, Iran, North Korea, or other states-does not have a stellar track
record of influencing truculent regimes. What Mr. Obama did not
acknowledge, however, is that engagement is no silver bullet in dealing
with such regimes... The Obama administration often cites Iran as an
example of the fruits of engagement, but it relies on a questionable
narrative for this. President Obama inherited from his predecessor six
U.N. Security Council sanctions resolutions, the U.S. financial
sanctions framework, and the 'P5+1' talks. He largely continued those
policies, initially with scant results. When a diplomatic breakthrough
finally came, it was the result of three interrelated factors: the oil
sanctions Congress imposed on Iran against the White House's wishes;
Hasan Rouhani's election as president of Iran; and, perhaps most
important, U.S. acquiescence in 2013 to long-held Iranian nuclear
demands such as permitting Iran to enrich uranium indefinitely and keep
its facilities at Arak, Natanz, and Forfow. Because of these moving
parts-especially the U.S. concessions-the Iran example holds few
lessons about the efficacy of engagement. The administration might have
been able to achieve what it did-a more modest result than that for
which it initially aimed-without its aggressive back-channel diplomacy;
at the same time, that diplomacy, supported by other tools, might have
accomplished the original, more ambitious U.S. aims. Iran does,
however, offer a cautionary example of mistaking a tactic for a policy.
The singular focus on engagement crowded out other tools that might
otherwise have played a role in U.S. strategy. For example, the U.S.
refrained from supporting mass protests in Iran in 2009 (an omission
that Hillary Clinton, who was secretary of state at the time, recently
said that she regretted), and discontinued efforts to bolster the
credibility of U.S. military threats. Seeing engagement as an end
rather than a means may also have driven the U.S. to accept negotiating
outcomes previously considered unacceptable." http://t.uani.com/1y9Ki7O
Abdulrahman
al-Rashed in Al Arabiya: "A recent Associated
Press report spoke of Iran's increased domination over Iraq under the
cover of supporting it against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
(ISIS) organization. According to the report's sources, the Iranians
have sold Iraq nearly $10 billion worth of weapons to confront terrorism.
These weapons include Kalashnikovs, rocket launchers and ammunition and
the value of this weaponry may not even exceed $50 million! Of course,
it's needless to explain that $10 billion is a massive amount enough to
have bought advanced armory from prominent countries which produce
military hardware instead of rusty simple arms from Iran. But the
objective was to fund Iran's military needs during this phase in which
it confronts domestic economic pressures. The Iraqis who are currently
overjoyed with this Iranian support will in the future end up
complaining about Tehran's domination over them. They will complain
that they cannot freely take decisions according to their national
interests. Iraq will then become submissive to Iran due to the latter's
increased political and security influence - just as Lebanon came under
Syria's influence in the 1970s when the latter's troops entered the
country to save it from Palestinian militias and only withdrew after 30
years of a quasi-occupation and after a threat by the U.N. Security
Council. Iraq, too, will become an Iranian farm which Iranian
revolutionary guards, politicians, mediators and brokers exploit.
Iraqis then will find problems coming from Iran increasing by the year,
just like what happened to the Lebanese people who brought the Syrians
into their country only to find out later that the chaos and violence
of Palestinian militias were less than those coming the Syrian army.
The Syrians controlled the Lebanese population and exploited the
country and dictated all of its affairs, from the smallest of details
to major decisions such as electing a president, a prime minister or a
house speaker. They killed whoever disagreed with them. The Iranian
regime will go as far as to humiliate the Iraqis after claiming credit
for protecting Baghdad from an ISIS invasion. We all know that the
terrorist organization ISIS turned away from the capital and headed
towards Mosul and Kurdistan when the Iranians weren't even there to
confront it. Shiite leaders will pay a higher price than others for the
Iranian presence on Iraqi soil because Iranian influence will remain
limited in Sunni areas no matter how expanded their military and
security presence is in other parts of Iraq." http://t.uani.com/1suokeF
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