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Israeli
Elections and U.S. Relations
A briefing by Eytan Gilboa
December 17, 2014
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Professor Eytan Gilboa is Director
of the Center for International Communication at Bar-Ilan University and
a Senior Research Associate at its Begin Sadat Center for Strategic
Studies (BESA). A specialist on U.S.-Israeli relations, international
communication and public diplomacy, he briefed the Middle East Forum
about the upcoming Israeli elections in a conference call on December 17,
2014.
Three months ahead of the early
elections called by PM Benjamin Netanyahu, polls find a third of
Israelis undecided: they view Netanyahu as holding onto power for too
long and yet they are unable to identify a worthy successor. With the
call for "ABN" (Anyone but Netanyahu) becoming the campaign's
foremost slogan, the opposition parties are already blaming the incumbent
premier for Israel's social, economic and foreign policy woes. Even on
security issues, his traditional forte, Netanyahu seems vulnerable after
the inconclusive Gaza war.
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Labor
leader Yitzhak Herzog (left) and Hatnua party leader Tzipi Livni .
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The alignment of political parties is a major factor in Israeli
elections since the candidate who garners the support of the greatest
number of Knesset members is asked by the president to form a government.
A left-of-center alignment will possibly yield more seats than it
currently holds but will still be seen as weak in light of the
Herzog-Livni power-sharing agreement. Alignments between right-leaning
and centrist parties are speculative at best; and while Netanyahu may be
planning to form a coalition with the ultraorthodox parties, he will
still need a centrist party to assemble a governing coalition.
Some Israeli commentators expect President Obama to try to influence
the outcome of the elections as payback for Netanyahu's support for
Romney in the 2012 presidential elections. Any such attempt, however, is
likely to be viewed by Israelis as blatant interference in their
country's internal affairs, driving many of them to vote for
right-leaning parties.
Summary account by Marilyn Stern,
Associate Fellow with the Middle East Forum.
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