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What
If Tehran Turns Down the Nuclear Deal?
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Iranian
hard-liners loathe the prospect of a presidential photo-op with Barack
Obama.
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Whether congressional Democrats accept or reject Barack Obama's Iran
deal has great importance and is rightly the focus of international
attention. But there's another debate taking place over the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that may be even more critical: the
one in Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the country's decision maker,
just might reject the laboriously
worked-out agreement that he helped negotiate.
On one level, that makes no sense. As a plethora of analyses have established,
the Vienna deal is enormously favorable to the Islamic Republic of Iran,
legitimizing its nuclear research, assuring its future nuclear weapons
program, helping its economy, and boosting its aggressive international
goals. These advantages would make it appear absurd for Khamenei not to
accept the deal. Plus, most
Iranians celebrate the accord.
Leaders of fanatical governments
put a premium on ideological purity and personal power.
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But rejecting it makes sense if one focuses not on those immediate
advantages and instead looks at its future dangers to the Iranian
regime's surviving. Leaders of fanatical and brutal governments such as
Khamenei's invariably make ideological purity and personal power their
highest priorities and he is no exception. From this point of view – its
impact on the regime's longevity – the deal contains two problems.
First, it betrays Ayatollah Khomeini's vision of unyielding enmity to
the United States, a core principle that has guided the Islamic republic
since he founded it in 1979. A substantial portion of the leadership,
including Khamenei himself, holds to a purist vision that sees any
relations with the United States as unacceptable and bordering on
treachery. For this reason, Tehran has long been the world's only capital
not seeking improved relations with Washington. These rejectionists
disdain the benefits of the deal; they refuse it on grounds of principle.
The JCPOA betrays Ayatollah
Khomeini's vision of unyielding enmity to the United States.
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Their position is hardly unique. Similarly, Palestinian rejectionists
oppose treaties with Israel, regardless of their potential benefits, not
wanting to truck with the enemy. (Think of the 1993 Oslo accords, which
brought land, money, legitimacy, and guns.) Principle trumps
practicality.
Second, Iranian opponents of the JCPOA worry about its eroding
the Islamist values of Khomeini's revolution. They fear that the
businessmen, tourists, students, artists, et al., perched soon to descend
on an newly-opened Iran will further tempt the local population away from
the difficult path of resistance and martyrdom in favor of consumerism,
individualism, feminism, and multiculturalism. They despise and dread
American clothing, music, videos, and education. Khamenei
himself talks of the U.S. government seeking a way "to penetrate
into the country." From their point of view, isolation and poverty
have their virtues as means to keep the Iranian revolution alive.
In short, the Iranian debate over the deal is a genuine one, pitting
those who argue in favor of the deal's short-term benefits against those
fearful of its long-term dangers. Khamenei must make a difficult choice.
The opposition of Iranian
hard-liners to the JCPOA has nothing to do with its substance.
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Back in the West, opponents of the deal will, of course, rejoice if
Khamenei rejects the deal. But his doing so also presents them with a
problem. After claiming that Obama has given away the store, they must
confront the awkward fact that the Iranian leadership turned down his
offer. As Obama emerges as an apparent hard-liner who protected American
interests and out-bargained the bazaar merchants, their argument
collapses. His accusation
about their "making common cause" with the Iranian
rejectionists will look newly convincing and terribly damning. Israel's
prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, currently in Obama's dog house, is
especially at risk of being dismissed as foolish.
To avoid this fate, the deal's opponents must immediately prepare for
the possibility of an Iranian "no."
That means their taking several steps: Pre-empt Khamenei by foreseeing
and even predicting his rejection of the deal. Explain (as I have done
here) that his reasons have nothing to do with its substance and
everything to do with the purity of ideology and maintaining a
revolutionary spirit. Develop a familiarity beyond the terms of the JCPOA
and learn the intricacies of Iran's domestic scene. Hone anti-Obama
arguments (such as: he deluded himself into thinking he had a negotiating
partner when none existed). Devise a detailed policy toward Tehran that
renews economic sanctions and enforces other penalties. Find allies
internationally to help implement this renewed sanctions regime. Prepare
the public for the possibility of destroying Iran's nuclear
infrastructure.
Khamenei's rejection of the Vienna deal would be great news for
everyone and especially for the deal's opponents – but the latter
urgently need to prepare for this eventuality.
Daniel Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of
the Middle East Forum.
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