Thursday, June 16, 2016

Eye on Iran: Potential Iranian Deal for Airliners Thrusts Boeing into Risky Political Debate








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WashPost: "Boeing could hardly step into a more sensitive, touchy deal than the imminent agreement to sell about 100 passenger jets to the Islamic Republic of Iran. With the sale, Boeing faces unique political risks here in the United States - with potential blowback among Americans opposed to last year's agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program and possible snapback of international sanctions if Iran violates the nuclear pact. Already, members of Congress are denouncing the deal. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Tex.) said institutions that consider financing the sales 'should ask whether it is in their long-term interests to profit from doing business with the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism. It's not American jobs that are on the line, but potentially American lives.' In Iran, feelings remain raw, too. Some Iranian leaders still complain about the 'great Satan' and question the U.S. commitment to ease trade restrictions as promised under the nuclear accord. Iran, meanwhile, shows little sign of once-hoped-for moderation and remains firmly on the opposite side of the United States in the civil war in Syria." http://t.uani.com/1UANDDQ

WSJ: "Iran is suing the U.S. in the International Court of Justice, accusing Washington, D.C., of violating a 1955 treaty by freezing its assets, the United Nations' main judicial arm said Wednesday. The case, filed Tuesday, follows a U.S. Supreme Court decision in April that gave victims of alleged Iran-linked terror attacks the right to collect some $2 billion in Iranian assets that are frozen in the U.S. Tehran alleges the U.S. seized assets of Iranian entities that weren't party to judgments and were immune from enforcement proceedings under the 1955 Treaty of Amity, Economic Relations and Consular Rights, the ICJ said in a statement. Iran said U.S. courts had awarded more than $56 billion worth of damages against it over Tehran's alleged involvement in terrorist attacks, according to the ICJ... Attacks blamed on Iran include the 1983 Beirut Marine barracks bombing, in which 241 American military personnel were killed in Lebanon. Victims of that attack and others have won U.S. court cases against Iran in recent years, and sought to collect damages... Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Wednesday that his government would pursue the ICJ case until it won back its assets and received compensation. He rejected allegations of Iranian involvement in the Beirut bombing. 'American courts have ruled through illegitimate decrees that these assets must be put at the disposal of Americans and the families of those who were killed in Lebanon,' he said, according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency. 'It's not clear what Americans were doing in Lebanon and what this issue has to do with Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/2604A5G

AP: "The Obama administration has met its sanctions relief obligations to Iran under last year's landmark nuclear deal but is willing to further clarify what is and isn't allowed in response to renewed Iranian complaints that it's not getting all the benefits it deserves, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Wednesday. Speaking after meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Oslo, Kerry said the administration had lived up to both the letter and the spirit of the agreement and had gone the extra mile to explain to foreign firms what they are now permitted to do. 'We have lifted the sanctions we said we would lift and we have completely kept faith with both the black-and-white print as well as the spirit of this effort,' Kerry said. 'In fact, I have personally gone beyond the absolute requirements of the lifting of sanctions to personally engage with banks and businesses and others who have a natural reluctance after several years of sanctions to move without fully understanding what they are allowed to do and what they are not allowed to do.' ... 'I think there are places where the United States could give confidence where there is doubt,' Kerry said. 'And, I feel that it is important for us if we're going to have future dealings (with Iran) or we want to have a reputation for good faith in negotiations we conduct anywhere. It's important for us to show good faith in executing this agreement and I intend to see to it that we do that.'" http://t.uani.com/1XpjwoX

Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Program

Khamenei.ir: "On Tuesday evening, the heads of the three branches, government officials and a group of senior managers of various sectors as well as political, social and cultural representatives met with the Leader of the Revolution... The Leader of the Islamic Revolution pointed to the threats by some US presidential hopefuls to scrap last year's nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries, saying the Islamic Republic will strongly respond to any such move. 'The agenda of the enemy today is to stop or eliminate the capabilities of the Islamic Republic or at least to prevent their growth,' Ayatollah Khamenei added... 'Fortunately Iran has the capability to return to the previous status and we can- if we deem necessary- obtain 100,000 SWUs in less than a year and a half thanks to the new generation centrifuges; so the other side should not think our hands are tied.'" http://t.uani.com/1sGJNm3

Fars (Iran): "Spokesman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Behrouz Kamalvandi blasted Washington for raising demands beyond the Vienna nuclear deal signed by Tehran and the world powers in July, stressing that Iran will not bow to pressures. Speaking to the state-run TV on Wednesday, Kamalvandi explained that during the nuclear negotiations, the other side insisted on using the word 'inventory' in the nuclear deal but given the Iranian negotiators' familiarity with the word and the legal obligations that accompany its use (in the text), Tehran opposed their demand. 'After long discussions, finally the word stockpile which means the final stocked product, was agreed upon and written in the text (of the nuclear deal) instead of the word inventory which includes all enriched materials from the beginning to the end of the enrichment process,' he added. 'Now, the other side is trying much to interpret the two words with the same meaning and we have naturally opposed it and will not accept it,' Kamalvandi said. 'We have not and will not accept any interpretation beyond the explicit text of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (nuclear deal),' he underlined." http://t.uani.com/25XXq22

Business Risk

CSM: "Iran says it has reached a deal with Boeing to buy passenger planes to update its aging civilian fleet, state-run Iranian news agencies reported on Tuesday... But the plan still faces hurdles, including approval by the US government, but coming in the wake of the Obama administration's agreement last year to lift sanctions against Iran's nuclear program, it could point to a growing thaw in relations between the two countries... Some advocacy groups concerned about Iran's nuclear arsenal have also launched campaigns criticizing potential business deals. United Against Nuclear Iran, a New York-based group, for example, has been warning companies of legal problems in the US if they do business in Iran. But despite the obstacles, if the Boeing purchase moves forward, it could provide a key boost for advocates of the nuclear deal who say it is critical to ensuring warming relations between Iran and the United States and other Western powers. 'The Boeing deal would be really important,' Cliff Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, a Washington-based political risk consulting firm, told The New York Times. To ensure relations are warming, he said, 'Iranian elites have to know that the U.S. wants constructive interaction. If Boeing sells 100 planes to Iran, it would send exactly the right vibe.'" http://t.uani.com/1Yu3QjO

WT: "Two former U.S. Treasury officials cast doubt Wednesday on the prospects of a highly touted deal between Iran and the American aerospace giant Boeing, claiming concerns about Iranian money laundering and terrorism financing activities are likely to scuttle the agreement. Boeing Co. officials remained mum Wednesday after Iranian officials said this week that a milestone deal was imminent, the biggest by far between a U.S. company and Tehran since the signing of the landmark nuclear deal last year that lifted many economic sanctions on Iran. But critics say the deal, strongly backed by President Obama, has failed to reduce concerns that Iran remains a vital source of funds and banking services for the world's leading terrorist groups. 'The risks associated with doing business with Iran haven't changed,' said Chip Poncy, who headed Treasury's office of strategic policy for terrorist financing and financial crimes through 2013. Eric Lorber, a former attorney in Treasury's office of foreign assets control, said the Boeing deal will likely face the same problem that has kept a similar deal between Tehran and Airbus, Boeing's European rival, from getting off the ground for the past seven months. The Airbus deal to sell more than 100 planes to the Iranians made headlines in January but 'still hasn't been finalized. And one of the reasons is that Airbus has had a terribly difficult time finding a private financial institution to bank the deal,' said Mr. Lorber, who appeared with Mr. Poncy on a conference call Wednesday arranged by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank whose scholars were critical of the Iran deal. 'I think Boeing is going to have a similar challenge,' Mr. Lorber said." http://t.uani.com/24TTFVq

NYT: "A British-Iranian employee of the Thomson Reuters Foundation, arrested in Iran more than two months ago for unexplained reasons, has been accused of plotting to overthrow the government, Iranian news media reported Wednesday. The detainee, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, 37, is a program coordinator for the foundation, the independent charitable arm of the Thomson Reuters news agency. Both the foundation and Ms. Zaghari-Ratcliffe's British husband, Richard Ratcliffe, denied the accusations. Ms. Zaghari-Ratcliffe was arrested on April 3 in Tehran and taken to the provincial city of Kerman in southern Iran, according to a statement by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps provided to the official Islamic Republic News Agency. Her 2-year-old daughter, Gabriella, who had accompanied her to Iran for a visit with family, is staying with maternal grandparents. The child's passport was confiscated by the Iranian authorities, severely complicating any possibility of reuniting her with Mr. Ratcliffe." http://t.uani.com/1tt1fdO

Sanctions Enforcement

Reuters: "A U.S. judge denied bail on Thursday to the wealthy Turkish gold trader Reza Zarrab on charges he conspired to violate U.S. sanctions against Iran. U.S. District Judge Richard Berman in Manhattan said federal prosecutors showed by a preponderance of the evidence that Zarrab posed a flight risk, and that no combination of conditions would reasonably assure his appearance at trial. Zarrab had sought to be released on a $50 million bond, and that he be held in a Manhattan apartment under 24-hour watch by armed guards at his expense." http://t.uani.com/1PwcHdt

Sanctions Relief

Bloomberg: "Iran easily beat expectations with its speed in boosting oil exports after the lifting of sanctions. Without an injection of cash and the easing of remaining trade barriers, the recovery may have run its course. When restrictions on Iran's oil exports were relieved in January following a nuclear pact with world powers, analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Barclays Plc doubted it could return to previous levels this year. The Persian Gulf state defied the skeptics with a 25 percent surge in production and aims to reach an eight-year high of 4 million barrels a day by year-end. 'They have surprised most market participants with the speed they've been able to resume production,' said Antoine Halff, a senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in New York. 'But to exceed pre-sanctions levels would require investment and technology and that's a much longer-term proposition.' ... While oil analysts concede that Iran surpassed their initial forecasts, they aren't convinced its greater ambitions will be realized soon... Iran will need billions of dollars of investment and foreign technology to boost reservoir pressure to expand capacity at its aging wells, which were already suffering output declines before sanctions took hold, according to the IEA... 'The big question for the Iranians is: Are they going to get all the investment they want?' Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of consulting firm IHS Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. 'Companies are going to be very cautious about making new commitments to Iran. No one wants to run afoul of U.S. sanction law.'" http://t.uani.com/1Ulj9IA

Reuters: "Iran's state airline, which has just reached an agreement with Boeing Co to purchase new jetliners, can resume flights in the EU, the European Commission said on Thursday... While the European Commission, the EU's executive, said Iranair could resume flights, some of the carrier's aircraft would remain on the EU's safety blacklist. 'I am happy to announce that we are now also able to allow most aircraft from Iranair back into European skies,' said EU Transport Commissioner Violeta Bulc. The Commission said the decision followed a visit to Iran by the EU executive in April... Iranair will be allowed to fly all of its planes in the EU except the Boeing 747-200s, Boeing 747SPs and Fokker 100s, the Commission said." http://t.uani.com/1Ull6Vj

Reuters: "Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif called on Wednesday for closer business ties with Germany after talks with his German counterpart Frank-Walter Steinmeier. 'The presence of German companies and banks in Iran, and more economic cooperation will help both countries,' Zarif told reporters before a dinner to break the Ramadan fast with Steinmeier. He said closer ties between the two countries would also promote peace and stability in the region. 'No country will be hurt. Iran will be an advanced country and a very good partner for Germany,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1YuBsh2

AFP: "U.S. aerospace giant Boeing confirmed Wednesday that it was in talks with Iranian airlines seeking to buy its airplanes. 'We have been engaged in discussions with Iranian airlines approved by the USG (U.S. government) about potential purchases of Boeing commercial passenger airplanes and services,' the company said in an email to AFP. 'We do not discuss details of ongoing conversations we are having with customers, and our standard practice is to let customers announce any agreements that are reached,' it said. The Iranian news agency Fars reported Tuesday that Iran's minister of roads and urban development, Abbas Akhoundi, said that Iran had reached an agreement with Boeing and the details would be announced 'within (the) next few days'. People close to the U.S. aircraft manufacturer had said in April that Boeing officials visiting Iran had discussed the sale of new versions of the 737, 777 and 787 jetliner families." http://t.uani.com/1UXheai

Al-Monitor: "A multibillion-dollar deal by Boeing to sell civilian airliners to Iran would be a major financial, diplomatic and psychological breakthrough between the United States and the Islamic Republic and reverse a decision by the Bill Clinton administration 23 years ago to block such sales and provide planes to Saudi Arabia instead. Bruce Riedel, a veteran national security official in four US administrations, told Al-Monitor that Boeing and other US aircraft companies were eager to sell to Iran when Clinton came to office in 1993. Riedel said the companies argued that such deals would enhance airline safety and undergird a US diplomatic opening to Iran, the same arguments being used today. But Clinton, said Riedel, was already committed to a policy of 'dual containment' of Iraq and Iran that sought to rein in both governments. He was 'eager not to undermine dual containment but also eager not to have Boeing suffer a business loss to Airbus,' Riedel said. 'So we came up with the idea that we could get the Saudis to buy Boeings.' Commerce Secretary Ron Brown traveled to Riyadh 'to convince the Saudis to buy $6 billion worth of Boeing airplanes so Boeing would not lobby for an Iran sale.' The pitch, Riedel said, was 'these are the best airplanes in the world. If you'll do this, we'll prevent Boeing from selling to Iran. So you get a two-fer.' ... The Boeing deal, if it goes through, would be 'a huge change in American policy,' Riedel said." http://t.uani.com/1sHRSa6

Reuters: "Turkey aims to triple trade with Iran to $30 billion as quickly as possible after the lifting of economic sanctions made banking transactions with the country easier, Turkish Customs and Trade Minister Bulent Tufenkci said in an interview... 'Banking and financial transactions have become easier (for Turkey) after the sanctions on Iran were softened, already boosting our business with Iran,' Tufenkci told Reuters in an interview in Ankara... The Turkish and Iranian central banks have re-opened their connection on the SWIFT global transaction network, an Iranian economy official said earlier this month, in a sign of normalizing banking ties." http://t.uani.com/21ovain

Human Rights

Reuters: "A United Nations body has called for the immediate release of prominent Iranian women's rights activist Bahareh Hedayat and has expressed concern for her health in a report published on Wednesday by a human rights group. Until her arrest in 2009 Hedayat had been involved in projects calling for gender equality and had reported on cases of sexual violence against female students at universities. She has spent some of her time at Evin prison in solitary confinement. 'The deprivation of liberty of Bahareh Hedayat was arbitrary,' the U.N. Working Group on Arbitrary Detention said in its report, compiled in May after a request from the New York-based International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran (ICHRI). The report said Hedayat, who was also arrested and released multiple times from 2006, should be compensated for her time spent in detention. Hedayat was convicted in 2010 on charges of insulting Iran's Supreme Leader and president and acting against national security." http://t.uani.com/1tsYcm2

Domestic Politics

AEI: "Former IRGC Commander Javad Mansouri discussed the formation of the IRGC Quds Force during an interview with a reporter from Ramz-e obour, a weekly Iranian publication. Mansouri appeared to confirm that Abbas Araghchi, a current deputy foreign minister and former nuclear negotiator, was a member of the IRGC Quds Force during the interview. The interviewer asked whether, 'some [diplomats] including Mr. Araghchi had experience in the Quds Force and the Quds Force actually introduced them to the Foreign Ministry?' Mansouri replied, 'They are essentially members there [of the Quds Force]. Now, our current and previous ambassadors to Iraq are Quds Force members. It is the same for Lebanon and Syria.' Iranian news outlets subsequently denied Mansouri's comments, citing anonymous officials in the administration and Foreign Ministry." http://t.uani.com/1UVpnMx

AP: "Iran's Revolutionary Guard has battled armed members of an insurgent Kurdish group, leading to fatalities. A report Thursday by Iran's semi-official Fars news agency quoted Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, the chief of the Guard's ground forces, as saying the clashes happened Wednesday near Oshnavieh, a predominantly Kurdish town in Iran's West Azerbaijan province near its border with Iraq and Turkey. Pakpour did not identify the insurgents. However, Mohammed Nazif Qadiri, a member of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, told The Associated Press that the fighters belonged to his organization. Both sides gave conflicting death tolls from the fighting. Pakpour said the Guard killed 12 insurgents while three of its members died. Qadiri said the Kurds killed over 12 Guard members, including a colonel." http://t.uani.com/1YuBaXt

AFP: "Revelations of exorbitant salaries paid to senior officials have sparked widespread anger in Iran, threatening to undermine public support for President Hassan Rouhani as he prepares to run for re-election next year. Rouhani's government has launched an investigation into public pay following the reports of executives at the state insurance regulator earning more than 50 times the base government salary. The president's opponents are demanding answers on behalf of struggling Iranians who have yet to see the promised economic benefits of the country's nuclear deal with world powers. The Iranian parliament's conservative speaker, Ali Larijani, hammered the message home in the legislature on Tuesday, announcing the Supreme Audit Court would release a report on the issue next week. 'These excessive salaries have caused anxiety in society,' Larijani said, responding to a claim from another conservative MP that a senior health ministry official was earning 2 billion rials ($58,000) a month, far above the base public sector salary of about $400 a month." http://t.uani.com/1tyhTtk

Opinion & Analysis

Mark Dubowitz & Annie Fixler in FP: "Iran's demands are escalating. The supreme leader is sounding the alarm about American mendacity. An anxious U.S. secretary of state is practically begging companies to return to Iran. Cautious banking executives and a distrustful and angry Congress are pushing back. Welcome to the fallout from the nuclear deal, which merely signaled the beginning of negotiations with the Islamic Republic. Last summer's Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was objectively a very good deal for Tehran: It preserved essential elements of the country's nuclear infrastructure and placed only temporary, limited restrictions on its nuclear ambitions, which start expiring in 2023. In exchange, Iran got the complete dismantlement of many of the most impactful U.S. and international economic sanctions. In January, the accord proceeded as scheduled. Iran mothballed some of its nuclear infrastructure and got the coveted seal of approval from the International Atomic Energy Agency. Following that, Washington and the Europeans terminated or suspended a slew of punishing economic sanctions and even agreed to hand over access to a whopping $100 billion in blocked Iranian assets. But then President Barack Obama's administration went even further. After committing to 'actively encourage' state and local government to lift their own sanctions, the administration sent letters to all 50 governors urging them to reconsider all Iran-sanctions measures. Even this was not enough for the Islamic Republic. 'On paper the United States allows foreign banks to deal with Iran, but in practice they create Iranophobia so no one does business with Iran,' thundered Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This is the same Iran that, in case anyone has forgotten, remains the leading state sponsor of terrorism and is still engaged in a wide variety of sanctionable financial illegalities. These include financing Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government, paying for the illicit procurement of parts for its missile program, and money-laundering and sanctions-evasion schemes to hide these crimes. Iran has found a way to bully the world into forgetting its bloody track record." http://t.uani.com/1PwfELb
       

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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